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A blog about political change, among other things

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The Georgia special election is today—and I’m making only one prediction

The New Neo Posted on June 20, 2017 by neoJune 20, 2017

I have no idea who will win. Neither does anyone else.

But it’s being hyped to the skies as very very important, as well as indicative of trends and signs and portents for the future not limited to this one Georgia district. That’s why, when I saw the headline to this article by pollster Nate Silver—“Why The Georgia Special Election Matters”—I thought “oh-oh, here’s another stupid piece on how the Georgia election is a predictor of a whole bunch of other things, including what will happen in the 2018 midterms.”

I don’t agree that it’s that big a deal; I actually think this particular battle is an idiosyncratic and atypical election that doesn’t tell us much about anything except whether Karen Handel or Jon Osoff will be going to Congress to represent Georgia’s 6th Congressional District.

But it turns out I was wrong about the Silver article. For the most part, it agrees with much of what I was thinking:

In either case, the narrative that emerges from the Georgia 6 runoff will lack nuance and will oversimplify complex evidence. While special elections overall are a reasonably useful indicator in forecasting upcoming midterms, their power comes in numbers. A half-dozen special elections taken together are a useful sign; any one of them is less so.

Silver adds this:

But we’re at a moment when Republicans have a lot of decisions to make now, and the story they tell themselves about the political environment matters as much as the reality of it. The narrative will probably be dumb, but it might matter all the same.

I would add that the story the MSM and the Democrats will tell is likely to be every bit as dumb or perhaps even dumber.

Silver points out that Georgia’s 6th Congressional District has a varied electoral history, particularly if you look at presidential elections:

Georgia 6 is a tough district to diagnose because its politics in presidential elections shifted a lot from 2012 to 2016. In 2012, the district went for Mitt Romney by 23 percentage points in an election that then-President Barack Obama won by 4 points nationally. That made it 27 points more Republican than the country as a whole. In 2016, by contrast, it chose Trump over Hillary Clinton by only 1.5 points in an election where Clinton won the popular vote by about 2 points nationally. Therefore, it was only 3 to 4 points more Republican than the national average.

That’s strange, but there is a certain consistency there in that the Republican candidate won each time, although the margins of victory were wildly different in 2012 and 2016. Of course, Trump was hardly a generic Republican candidate, so his low margin of victory could be explained by Trump-aversion rather than aversion to Republican candidates in general. Silver goes into a lengthy analysis of the Congressional vote in the district in 2016—too lengthy and complicated to easily summarize—but probably worth reading. Silver did very very well in predicting the 2012 election. He did far less well in 2016.

So, what’s my one prediction? Whatever the outcome, it will be used for propaganda purposes to indicate far more than it really indicates. Of course, if the victory margin is yuge (as someone we know would say), that actually might be indicative of some sort of trend (however, Romney’s huge 2012 margin there was indicative of absolutely nothing). I also want to remind everyone that it’s about a year and a half till the 2018 midterms. That’s an aeon in political life.

Posted in Politics | 25 Replies

Otto Warmbier…

The New Neo Posted on June 20, 2017 by neoJune 20, 2017

…has died.

Very sad indeed. RIP.

The tour company that sponsored Warmbier’s trip has now decided it will no longer offer this service:

For years, Young Pioneer Tours has happily boasted: “We provide budget travel to destinations your mother would rather you stayed away from.” On Monday, after Warmbier’s family announced he’d died that afternoon at a Cincinnati hospital, the message that the China-based tour company sent via e-mail to USA TODAY wore a darker and more anguished tone.

“Our deepest sympathies are with Otto Warmbier and those who loved him,” the e-mail read. “We had held onto hope that he might recover, and have the life that he should have had, but now those hopes are gone, and we too are reeling with the shock of a young man’s life taken well before his time.”

Considering these facts and this tragic outcome we will no longer be organizing tours for U.S. citizens to North Korea.”

I think it’s a wise decision. If people are determined to go there, I suppose they will, however.

Posted in Uncategorized | 28 Replies

What is it with the Japanese?

The New Neo Posted on June 19, 2017 by neoJune 19, 2017

I mean really, what is it?:

…[A] hotel in Japan…allows couples getting married to hire an alpaca to act as the witness.

Allows it? I’d say encourages it:

The hotel in question, the Epinard Nasu in Tochigi, even allows the animals to appear in the wedding photographs, before returning to the local zoo, which just happens to be next door.

When you see the photos, you may want an alpaca at your wedding, too:

That is one cute critter.

I have friends who raise alpacas, so I’m very familiar with them and the fact that they are indeed cute. But that one is cuteness squared. I think it’s the grooming—which makes it look like a large and loopy Bichon Frise—as well as the bow tie, that combine to put it over the top of almost unbearable cuteness.

Posted in Pop culture | 24 Replies

The Cosby trial and the issue of consent

The New Neo Posted on June 19, 2017 by neoDecember 15, 2025

In the New Yorker, Harvard law professor Jeannie Suk Gerson writes:

The sheer number of Cosby accusers who have come forward, and the consistency of their descriptions of his modus operandi, are so overwhelming that they produce little doubt that Cosby used his fame and power to lure women, give them incapacitating drugs, and have sex with them without their consent.

That got my attention, because although the numbers of women and the consistency of their stories argue in favor of Cosby’s guilt, they leave tons of doubt—in particular about the issue of consent. There is no question that Cosby “used his fame and power to lure women, give them intoxicating drugs, and have sex with them.” I don’t think he disputes that, and I certainly don’t dispute it, and however distasteful it would not be a crime (the only crime would be the possible illegality of the drugs involved).

The issue of consent is a whole ‘nother ball game, and there is not only a “he said/she said” quality to the stories in the Cosby case, but also quite a bit of evidence that the plaintiff in this trial continued in a relationship with him afterwards. That does not prove she consented, but it certainly casts a very reasonable doubt about not just Cosby’s legal guilt or innocence (an issue Gerson deals with in her essay), but his actual guilt or innocence (an issue she appears to consider an open-and-shut case for guilt).

As for the numbers of woman accusers and the consistency of their charges against Cosby, the earlier accusations were well-publicized and therefore each accuser (or at least many of them) could be copying the others. I am not aware that any of the later accusers charged Cosby with these offenses before the first stories became well-known, but if they had, that would change things and be stronger evidence of his guilt. The consistent fact that their stories involved having sex with him after taking drugs is not surprising; after all, he has admitted that was a sexual approach that he had. Again, the only issue here is consent.

Posted in Law, Men and women; marriage and divorce and sex | 22 Replies

Donation thanks!

The New Neo Posted on June 19, 2017 by neoJune 19, 2017

Donation week is over. That wasn’t too painful, was it? Of course, you can donate any time the spirit moves you, not just during donation week.

Every contribution is much much appreciated, and I say that from the bottom of my heart.

I want to also thank the entire neo-neocon community. Without your comments and participation and readerhip, I doubt I’d have done this for so many years.

Here’s the way ballet dancers say “thank you”:

Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Replies

Another terrorist attack in London—with a twist

The New Neo Posted on June 19, 2017 by neoJune 19, 2017

This one appears to have been an anti-Muslim retaliation by a man who is currently in police custody:

The man arrested on suspicion of carrying out the Finsbury Park terror attack is 47-year-old Darren Osborne from Cardiff, the BBC understands.

He was held after a van hit Muslims who had been attending evening prayers at a north London mosque.

They had been helping a man who had collapsed. He later died but it is not clear if it was because of the attack.

Mr Osborne was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and later further arrested over alleged terror offences.

For years the media has been talking about hate crimes against Muslims. Well, this is a real one, all too real. The suspect, however, seems to have been an actual “lone wolf” rather than a “known wolf” or part of any organized group.

The modus operandi was the same as in the recent Islamist terrorist attacks: a vehicle. Fortunately, Osborne was somewhat less competent than his Islamist predecessors and role models—he seems to have failed to actually kill anyone. The sole death involved a man who had already collapsed, and who may have died of natural causes.

I hope that this is not the first sign of a trend. It should surprise no one that it happened, however. It feels like the entire situation is escalating, particularly in Great Britain and France, and these things are often contagious for people already on the edge of unhingement. That’s my guess about Osborne.

[NOTE: By the way—although I don’t monitor them all that closely—it seems to me that the BBC is less reticent about the use of the word “terror” here than in previous instances. It’s not even in scare quotes in the article about Osborne.

This is their general policy. I assume they would say that Osborne has been charged with committing terror offenses, and that’s why they decided to use the word in the present case.]

Posted in Terrorism and terrorists, Violence | 10 Replies

Happy Father’s Day!

The New Neo Posted on June 18, 2017 by neoJune 18, 2017

[NOTE: This a slightly edited version of a previous post of mine.]

It’s Father’s Day. A sort of poor stepchild to Mother’s Day, although fathers themselves are hardly that. They are central to a family.

Just ask the people who never had one, or who had a difficult relationship with theirs. Or ask the people who were nurtured in the strength of a father’s love and guidance.

Of course, the complex world being what it is, and people and families being what they are, it’s the rare father-child relationship that’s entirely conflict-free. But for the vast majority, love is almost always present, even though at times it can be hard to express or to perceive. It can take a child a very long time to see it or feel it; but that’s part of what growing up is all about. And “growing up” can go on even in adulthood, or old age.

Father’s Day—or Mother’s Day, for that matter—can wash over us in a wave of treacly sentimentality. But the truth of the matter is often stranger, deeper, and more touching. Sometimes the words of love catch in the throat before they’re spoken. But they can still be sensed. Sometimes a loving father is lost through distance or misunderstanding, and then regained.

There’s an extraordinary poem by Robert Hayden that depicts one of these uneasy father-child connections—the shrouded feelings, both paternal and filial, that can come to be seen in the fullness of time as the love that was always, always there. I offer it on this Father’s Day to all of you.

THOSE WINTER SUNDAYS

Sundays too my father got up early
and put his clothes on in the blueblack cold
then with cracked hands that ached
from labor in the weekday weather made
banked fires blaze. No one ever thanked him.

I’d wake and hear the cold splintering, breaking.
When the rooms were warm, he’d call,
and slowly I would rise and dress,
fearing the chronic angers of that house.

Speaking indifferently to him,
who had driven out the cold
and polished my good shoes as well.
What did I know, what did I know
of love’s austere and lonely offices?

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Replies

Donation time: here’s that big old hat again

The New Neo Posted on June 17, 2017 by neoJune 17, 2017

[BUMPED UP FOR THE LAST TIME THIS CYCLE: please scroll down for today’s new posts, 6/17.]

passhat

Yes, indeed. It’s hard to believe, isn’t it? Time passes so quickly when we’re enjoying ourselves.

It’s been a while since I asked you to donate to a semi-worthy cause: this blog. And so I’m going to ask you again to use the “donate” button on the right sidebar beside the photo of the hat, and give whatever you see fit. Continue reading →

Posted in Blogging and bloggers, Uncategorized | 9 Replies

Breatharians

The New Neo Posted on June 17, 2017 by neoJune 17, 2017

Please explain this NY Post article to me:

A “Breatharian” mom and dad of two have barely eaten for nine years as they live off “the universe’s energy.”

Husband and wife Akahi Ricardo and Camila Castello believe that food and water aren’t necessary and humans can be sustained solely by the energy of the universe.

Camila and Akahi ”” who have a 5-year-old son and 2-year-old daughter together ”” have survived on little else besides a piece of fruit or vegetable broth just three times per week since 2008.

I read the whole article waiting for the punchline, but there was none. Is every day now April Fools Day at the Post? This goes beyond “fake news” into “news so absurd that no one on earth, not even the people who believe that chocolate milk comes from brown cows, could believe it.”

Then again, I once met a Breatherian—or someone who professed to be one (he was a friend of someone I was close to). That particular Breatharian was, however, seemingly insane, and I say that not just because of his odd eating habits. He also—after telling us he was a Breatharian who barely needed to eat a thing to stay alive—proceeded to help himself to several of the barbecued ribs that we were eating that evening.

That’s a true story, and it occurred about thirty years ago.

That memory, plus the Post article, prompted me to look up Breatharianism, which apparently is some sort of actual movement originating in India:

According to Ayurveda, sunlight is one of the main sources of prana, and some practitioners believe that it is possible for a person to survive on sunlight alone. The terms breatharianism or inedia may also refer to this philosophy when it is practiced as a lifestyle in place of the usual diet.

Breatharianism is considered a lethal pseudoscience by scientists and medical professionals, and several adherents of these practices have died from starvation and dehydration. Though it is common knowledge that biological entities require sustenance to survive, breatharianism continues.

Apparently.

That Wiki entry I just linked to contains some astounding examples of people who claim to be Breatharians. Here is my personal favorite:

Wiley Brooks is the founder of the Breatharian Institute of America. He was first introduced to the public in 1980 when appearing on the TV show That’s Incredible!…

In 1983 he was reportedly observed leaving a Santa Cruz 7-Eleven with a Slurpee, a hot dog, and Twinkies. He told Colors magazine in 2003 that he periodically breaks his fasting with a cheeseburger and a cola, explaining that when he’s surrounded by junk culture and junk food, consuming them adds balance.

Wiley Brooks later claimed that Diet Coke and McDonald’s cheeseburgers have special “5D” properties. The idea of separate but interconnected 5D and 3D worlds is a major part of Wiley Brooks’ ideology, and Wiley Brooks encourages his followers to only eat these special 5D foods, as well as meditate on a set of magical 5D words…

Brooks’s institute has charged varying fees to prospective clients who wished to learn how to live without food, which have ranged from US$100,000 with an initial deposit of $10,000[40] to one billion dollars, to be paid via bank wire transfer with a preliminary deposit of $100,000, for a session called “Immortality workshop”.

I wonder if Brooks has ever had any takers. Then again, at those prices, he wouldn’t need all that many of them to make a rather nice go of it.

Posted in Food, Getting philosophical: life, love, the universe, Health | 26 Replies

Cosby mistrial declared—this time

The New Neo Posted on June 17, 2017 by neoJune 17, 2017

The Cosby jury has ended up hopelessly deadlocked and a mistrial declared. This is not a surprising result in a hesaid/shesaid case like this, in which many years have passed since the original alleged offenses. But the prosecution has declared it will go for another round.

There is little question that Cosby had some kinky sexual practices involving drugged women, but the all-important (and so far, unanswerable, IMHO) question was whether the activity was consensual.

No matter what happens to Cosby ultimately, his reputation is permanently shot. He could be convicted in a subsequent criminal trial, and certainly faces the prospects of many civil trials.

It’s a sad tale all around.

Posted in Law, Men and women; marriage and divorce and sex | 12 Replies

We have officially entered the twilight zone

The New Neo Posted on June 17, 2017 by neoJune 17, 2017

What’s Dennis Rodman doing in North Korea?

Posted in Uncategorized | 11 Replies

Trump, Julius Caesar, and killing tyrants

The New Neo Posted on June 17, 2017 by neoJune 17, 2017

The current New York production of “Julius Caesar” in which Caesar is portrayed as a Trump-like figure is no ordinary propaganda.

Caesar is a particular figure with particular characteristics. Why was he assassinated? Because the assassins thought he had become a tyrant. They met a bad end themselves, as assassins often do, but along the way they felt they were doing Rome a service by ridding it of a dangerous leader. They considered it to be not an assassination, but tyrannicide:

Brutus began to conspire against Caesar with his friend and brother-in-law Gaius Cassius Longinus and other men, calling themselves the Liberatores (“Liberators”).

The assassination is portrayed in the play thusly:

The version best known in the English-speaking world is the Latin phrase “Et tu, Brute?” (“You too, Brutus?”); this derives from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar (1599), where it actually forms the first half of a macaronic line: “Et tu, Brute? Then fall, Caesar.” This has no basis in historical fact. Shakespeare was making use of a phrase already in common use at the time. According to Plutarch, after the assassination, Brutus stepped forward as if to say something to his fellow senators not involved in the plot; they, however, fled the building. Brutus and his companions then marched to the Capitol while crying out to their beloved city: “People of Rome, we are once again free!”.

In actuality, the Caesar’s death precipitated a chain of events that led to the Republic’s fall:

The Roman lower classes, with whom Caesar was popular, became enraged that a small group of aristocrats had sacrificed Caesar. Antony, who had been drifting apart from Caesar, capitalised on the grief of the Roman mob and threatened to unleash them on the Optimates, perhaps with the intent of taking control of Rome himself. But, to his surprise and chagrin, Caesar had named his grandnephew Gaius Octavius his sole heir, bequeathing him the immensely potent Caesar name as well as making him one of the wealthiest citizens in the Republic…

[A civil was ensued and the chain of events] resulted in the final ascendancy of Octavian, who became the first Roman emperor, under the name Caesar Augustus, a name that raised him to the status of a deity.

Speaking of assassins who come to a bad end, the most famous American example is John Wilkes Booth. Booth was an actor, of course, and murdered Lincoln in a theater (Caesar was murdered in a place called Pompey’s Theater, but it doesn’t seem to have been a theater in the conventional sense). Not only that, but Booth’s motive for the assassination was also tyrannicide, and he is reported to have made a reference understood to be to Julius Caesar (in Latin, no less) as he leapt to the stage:

[John Wilkes Booth’s] father, the eminent Junius Brutus Booth, had been given a name that identified him with both the legendary founder of the Roman Republic (Lucius Junius Brutus) and the descendant who fought to preserve that republic half a millennium later (Marcus Junius Brutus). The elder Booth in turn had bestowed the same appellation on the oldest of his American-born sons, three of whom were destined to follow him into the theater.

You’ll recall that in Julius Caesar the example of the original Brutus is invoked as a symbolic conscience for Shakespeare’s brooding protagonist. Partly through the persuasions of Cassius, but mostly through Brutus’s sense of his own honor, the spirit of the ancient Brutus urges the inheritor of hrs virtues to circumvent a would-be king and thereby safeguard the liberties that have defined Roman dignity since the abolition of monarchy some five centuries before…

Like the Marcus Junius Brutus of Shakespeare’s play, John Wilkes Booth was keenly receptive to the promptings of ancestral tradition. He aspired to what “an antique Roman” would do in his place, and it is very likely that he was alluding to both Brutuses when he spat out “Sic Semper Tyrannis” (“Thus Be it Ever to Tyrants”) and slew a President he had frequently scorned as a “King.”

The rest, as they say, is history. It’s a history of which the directors of the current NY play may or may not be aware, although they should be aware of it. They are playing with fire—and probably considering themselves brave Romantic and/or classical heroes, much as Booth did, although they obviously aren’t going as far.

Here’s an example of someone calling for Trump’s death, this time by legal execution rather than assassination. And the author of the piece—originally published at HuffPo, although subsequently removed after the ballfield assassination attempt—doesn’t limit the call for execution to just Trump, he thinks his aides and VP should be executed, too:

Trump’s firing of James Comey to impede the investigation into an act of war against our nation, and his assistance to ISIS in the form of providing them with propaganda for recruitment, both provide “Aid and Comfort” to enemies of the United States. It would be difficult to find a more grave offense among those Trump and his team have already committed against this nation and its people. But all involved must face justice.

And that’s why the impeachment and removal of Donald Trump from the Oval Office are merely the first steps in what must be a long-term policy to redeem the United States in the eyes of the world. They are certainly important steps in restoring the credibility of our government, our standing in the eyes of the world, and our very democracy. But they must not be the only steps, lest we still be left with Mike Pence as the acting president after Trump’s removal. No, to quote our new fuhrer, we must “drain the swamp.”

Draining the swamp means not only ejecting Trump from the presidency, but also bringing himself and everyone assisting in his agenda up on charges of treason. They must be convicted (there is little room to doubt their guilt). And then”Š”””Šupon receiving guilty verdicts”Š”””Šthey must all be executed under the law. Anything less than capital punishment”Š”””Šor at least life imprisonment without parole in a maximum security detention facility”Š”””Šwould send yet another message to the world that America has lost its moral compass. In order for America’s morality and leadership to be restored, it must rebuke Donald Trump, his entire administration, and his legislative agenda in the strongest manner possible. And nothing would do more than to convict them of the highest offense defined by our Constitution, and then to deliver the ultimate punishment. Donald Trump deserves nothing less. Mitch McConnell, Steve Bannon, and Paul Ryan should also share Donald Trump’s fate, for they have done more than practically anyone to protect him and to throw our country under the proverbial bus. In order to survive, we as a nation must deliver the ultimate punishment under the law to all involved in its current destruction.

HuffPo is considered a relatively mainstream website, but the fact that this article passed muster there shows how acceptable it’s become to talk about and advocate Trump’s death.

People like the author of that HuffPo piece see themselves as heroes on a great stage. Their disagreements with Trump can’t be just the usual political dissension, because that would make them petty and ordinary too. No, the scale must be grand, and the remedy equally grand. There are a disturbing number of people around who feel this way, and some of them almost undoubtedly will try to act.

Posted in History, Theater and TV, Trump | 26 Replies

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