As predicted, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador won an overwhelming victory in this weekend’s Mexican election. He’s a leftist who made a lot of promises: clean up corruption and illegal drugs, improve the economy, help the plight of the poor.
So, is Mexico poised to go the way of Venezuela? Maybe. Is there any chance he can deliver on any of his promises, much less all of them? I strongly doubt it. But I can understand why Mexicans decided to give it a try. The country’s a mess and they’re desperate. Who wouldn’t want to end corruption and help the economy?
One thing AMLO (that’s what he’s called for short) is not is a newcomer to the political game. He’s sixty-four years old and has been in politics and/or public office for over 40 years (mostly politics rather than office)—in other words, he seems to be a career politician, who’s been involved in a dizzying array of parties. He’s got a Wiki entry a mile long.
Nor is this the first time he’s run for the presidency. In 2006 he almost won:
López Obrador resigned the Mexico City headship in July 2005 to enter the 2006 presidential election, representing the Coalition for the Good of All, which was led by the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and included the Citizens’ Movement party and the Labor Party. He received 35.31% of the vote and lost by 0.58%. López Obrador subsequently alleged electoral fraud and refused to concede, leading a several-months-long takeover of Paseo de la Reforma and the Zócalo in protest.
López Obrador was a candidate in the 2012 presidential election representing a coalition of the PRD, Labor Party and Citizens’ Movement. He finished second with 31.59% of the vote. He left the PRD in 2012 and in 2014 he founded the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), leading that party until 2018.
His present party is a coalition of the left and right:
The alliance has received criticism as it is a coalition between two left-wing parties (MORENA and the PT) with a formation related to the evangelical right (PES). In response, the national president of MORENA, Yeidckol Polevnsky, mentioned that her party believes in inclusion, joint work to “rescue Mexico” and that they will continue to defend human rights, while Hugo Eric Flores Cervantes, national president of the PES, mentioned that “the only possibility of real change in our country is the one headed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador” and that his party had decided to be “on the right side of history.”
Some of the US coverage plays up a “Trump critic” angle for AMLO, but that doesn’t seem to me to be a particularly important part of his appeal, which is more oriented towards ending corruption and helping the economy, and certainly long predated the rise of Trump. He and Trump exchanged cordial words after his victory, although those cordial words don’t really tell much about the future.
Personally, I get a Peron vibe from him. Populist, hard to pin down, charismatic, appealing to the poor. I Googled his name together with Peron’s, and got this, which is translated from the original Spanish:
From the ideological point of view it is difficult to pigeonhole, although often he is called a leftist politician…After having lost in the elections of 2006 and 2012, in the current campaign he moderated his speech to attract sectors that previously distrusted and slipped more towards the center…
The critics of López Obrador say that he is a populist caudillo and they compare him with the American president Donald Trump [!!] and with the Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro , something that the protagonist rejects…
For the writer and analyst Jorge Zepeda Patterson , López Obrador is more like the personal leadership of Juan Domingo Perón than other leaders with whom he is associated. To me, however, it makes me think of Perón, every proportion saved: his ideological ambiguity, his ability to float above definitions or to summon the most divergent political fractions and his ability to negotiate with the existing union structures remind the figure of the Argentine leader, “he wrote in his column in the newspaper El País .
So apparently I’m not the only one.
Prior to AMLO’s election, there was a big brouhaha about some remarks he made concerning immigration to the US.
Here’s the quote in Spanish:
Y ya pronto, muy pronto, al triunfo de nuestro movimiento vamos a defender a los migrantes de todo el continente Americano y todos los migrantes del mundo que, por necesidad, tienen que abandonar sus pueblos para buscar la vida en Estados Unidos, es un derecho humano que vamos a defender,” El Universal quotes López Obrador saying in a speech on June 19.
My high school Spanish was never very good, and by now I’ve forgotten a great deal of what I knew back then, but even I can translate that pretty well all by myself (I think, anyway). What he seems to have said is that soon “our movement” will triumph and will defend as a human right the migrants who, through necessity, have to abandon their homes (towns?) in order to seek a life in the US. No surprise there.
And how will this defense be mounted? Will it be any different from his predecessor and his attitude towards the “migrants”?
More here:
Mexico runs a NAFTA-protected $70 billion trade surplus with the U.S…The architects of NAFTA long ago assured Americans that such a trade war would not break out, or that we should not worry over trade imbalances, given the desirability of outsourcing to take advantage of Mexico’s cheaper labor costs.
A supposedly affluent Mexico was supposed to achieve near parity with the U.S., as immigration and trade soon neutralized. Despite Mexico’s economic growth, no such symmetry has followed NAFTA. What did, however, 34 years later, was the establishment of a dysfunctional Mexican state, whose drug cartels all but run the country on the basis of their enormous profits from unfettered dope-running and human-trafficking into the United States. NAFTA certainly did not make Mexico a safer, kinder, and gentler nation.
In addition, Mexican citizens who enter and reside as illegal immigrants in the U.S. are mostly responsible for sending an approximate $30 billion in remittances home to Mexico. That sum has now surpassed oil and tourism as the largest source of Mexican foreign exchange. That huge cash influx is the concrete reality behind Obrador’s otherwise unhinged rhetoric about exercising veto power over U.S. immigration law…
Why the U.S. government does not tax remittances and why it does not prohibit foreign nationals on public assistance from sending cash out of the country are some of the stranger phenomena of the entire strange illegal-immigration matrix.
Promises to be—interesting.