In case you’ve been stranded on a desert island recently, today is the NH primary

The New Neo Posted on by

First, I’m going to make a prediction without reading the polls. I predict Sanders wins, Buttigieg second, Klobuchar third, Biden fourth. I think Sanders will lead because in 2016 he beat Hillary Clinton 60% to 38% in the New Hamphshire primary. That’s quite a margin.

As for Buttigieg, I think many voters are looking for a candidate they perceive as moderate – that is, a candidate a significant number of voters can be fooled into thinking is moderate. That’s a tried-and-true Democratic tactic. I think those voters are deserting Biden, and going both to Buttigieg and Klobuchar. That’s why I place Buttigieg second, her third, and Biden fourth.

Now I’m going to look at the polls. Pardon me for a moment.

I see that the polls pretty much agree with what I wrote above, except they have a tie for fourth between Biden and Warren.

The polls don’t even acknowledge Bloomberg, at least not the ones at the site I checked. And I had forgotten him, too – but I shouldn’t have. He’s another person who represents (at least for the moment) a refuge for Democrats who want a candidate less forcefully leftist. All people have really seen of him so far are his ads, and so they haven’t had much exposure to his off-the-cuff remarks or even his record except as he wishes to present it. I predict he’ll do surprisingly well, but still be in something like 5th place.

Oscar dresses 2020

The New Neo Posted on by

I care so little about the Oscars that I can’t even pay much attention to the fashions this year. But a quick perusal should tell you all you need to know.

Some were lovely. But some were – well, take a look at Kristen Wiig.

Saoirse Ronan (whoever she is) was my personal non-favorite. She looks as though she’s wearing a growth of wood ear fungus on her torso.

Ronan:

Wood ear fungus:

And someone named Blac Chyna was doing the sexier version of Ming the Merciless

But for the most part, even those stars who were wearing flattering gowns looked like they forgot to do their hair. There was a total disconnect between head and body. What’s up with that? (Yes, the punch lines write themselves.)

The Biden dog-face and pony-soldier show

The New Neo Posted on by

Bizarro Biden strikes again:

Have you noticed that almost all the MSM coverage explains this as a joke? And believe me, I’m not saying it wasn’t. But if it was a joke, it was the most obscure one humanly possible, unless Biden were to have spoken in tongues.

Was he quoting a John Wayne movie, as Biden and his spokespeople have claimed? Apparently he’s used the phrase before. But (a) so far, no one has been able to find the quote in any John Wayne movie, and (b) to use a quote properly in that fashion, it has to be something with which a fairly large number of people would be familiar. This most definitely is not.

So why on earth does Biden say it? Because he’s bizarre. Not only is he bizarre now, possibly because of his advancing age, but I have always felt there’s something “off” about him. That feeling goes back to when I was a Democrat, by the way. I could not understand why he thought he could become president way back when (see this and also this), or why anyone would support him. Fortunately, not many did then, and as it’s shaping up at the moment, not many do now.

[NOTE: I think part of Biden’s fondness for the phrase is its resemblance to “dog and pony show“:

“Dog and pony show” is a colloquial term which has come to mean a highly promoted, often over-staged performance, presentation, or event designed to sway or convince opinion for political, or less often, commercial ends. Typically, the term is used in a pejorative sense to connote disdain, jocular lack of appreciation, or distrust of the message being presented or the efforts undertaken to present it.

Rather fitting, don’t you think?]

How buffet restaurants make a profit

The New Neo Posted on by

Let’s have something lighter – or heavier, as the case may be.

I always wanted to know how buffet restaurants manage to do well financially, because so many are rather inexpensive. And now I do.

Every now and then I go to an Asian buffet near me, or one in a town I visit frequently. Most Asian buffets are inedible, but these two are pretty good. Decent (but not fabulous) all you can eat sushi for twelve dollars? Along with a whole bunch of other stuff, like spare ribs (a weakness of mine)?

I am very selective at these places. I know exactly what I want, and I go for it. If I try anything new, I take a teeny tiny piece first, because I can always go back for more if it passes muster. It rarely does, and then I never touch the stuff again. So I may be one of the people the buffets make a significant amount of money off of, although I also might be considered average – in which case they still make a little bit of profit from me, according to the article.

The forgotten plague: TB

The New Neo Posted on by

“By the dawn of the 19th Century, the disease had killed 1 in 7 of all people that had ever lived, more than any other illness.”

Anyone who’s a Bronte or Keats or Chopin fan hasn’t forgotten. But it’s true that most of us don’t really appreciate what a widespread scourge tuberculosis was.

I recommend the first half of Jessamyn West’s The Woman Said Yes, about her own bout with TB as a young woman, and her years in a sanatorium as well as her recovery.

The above clip is only part of a longer documentary. More about tuberculosis here.

James Carville, messenger with a message about the message

The New Neo Posted on by

A lot of people are talking about recent remarks by James Carville, warning the Democratic Party about errors they’re making in using so many leftist talking points. Carville became famous as Bill Clinton’s political strategist, and that’s what Carville is into: strategy. It’s difficult to determine if he’s into anything else. To me, he seems to be a pure example (and I don’t mean “pure” in the moral sense) of a political being who is almost entirely about maneuvering in order to win.

This recent interview is of special interest [emphasis mine]:

James Carville: …We just had an election in 2018. We did great. We talked about everything we needed to talk about, and we won. And now it’s like we’re losing our damn minds. Someone’s got to step their game up here.

Sean Illing: What does that mean?

James Carville: In 2018, Democrats recruited really strong candidates, really qualified candidates. And the party said, “This is what we’re going to talk about and we’re going to keep talking about it.” And you know what happened? We fucking won. We didn’t get distracted, we didn’t get deflected.

Sean Illing: Give me an example of what you mean by distractions.

James Carville: We have candidates on the debate stage talking about open borders and decriminalizing illegal immigration. They’re talking about doing away with nuclear energy and fracking. You’ve got Bernie Sanders talking about letting criminals and terrorists vote from jail cells. It doesn’t matter what you think about any of that, or if there are good arguments — talking about that is not how you win a national election. It’s not how you become a majoritarian party.

It’s difficult to avoid believing that Carville literally doesn’t care about political principles or policies. It’s all – and I mean all – about power and winning. And he believes that’s accomplished by talk rather than actions. Nor does it seem to matter to him what the Democratic candidates actually believe or what they actually plan to do once in office. The winning is all. And the power. The power to do what?

Carville also said:

Look, Bernie Sanders isn’t a Democrat. He’s never been a Democrat. He’s an ideologue. And I’ve been clear about this: If Bernie is the nominee, I’ll vote for him. No question. I’ll take an ideological fanatic over a career criminal any day. But he’s not a Democrat.

The “career criminal” to whom Carville refers is, of course, Trump. But he never explains what he is referring to when he calls him that – I guess everyone is supposed to know. He uses the term again later in the interview:

Right now the most important thing is getting this career criminal who’s stealing everything that isn’t nailed down out of the White House. We can’t do anything for anyone if we don’t start there and then acquire more power.

And Carville’s conclusion goes like this:

The purpose of a political party is to acquire power. All right? Without power, nothing matters.

You can feel Carville’s desperation. He believes the Democratic candidates aren’t being pragmatic enough, and that their message isn’t a winning one. He takes it as a given that Democrats must get power or something very dire will happen. In fact, he also says this in the interview:

I’ll just say it this way: The fate of the world depends on the Democrats getting their shit together and winning in November. We have to beat Trump.

Be careful about purposely helping the person you think is the worst candidate on the other side

The New Neo Posted on by

I am very wary of any attempt to manipulate the Democratic primaries by Republicans crossing over and voting for the person they think is the weakest candidate. This is possible to do in many states with open primaries, including the one coming up in New Hampshire this Tuesday.

I say let the Democrats handle their own choices. It’s hubris to think you know who would be the most likely to lose, and it could backfire terribly. If you help the absolute worst candidate get nominated, and that person wins, I doubt you’d be pleased with yourself.

I seem to recall that the press built up Trump for a while during the 2016 primaries, hoping he’d be nominated, because they believed he’d get trounced. How’d that work out for them?

If you watched the Democratic candidates debating last night…

The New Neo Posted on by

…my hat is off to you for your fortitude.

I didn’t watch it. But the gist of what I read about it is as follows:

–Biden led with the idea that he wouldn’t do well in New Hampshire.

–Amy Klobuchar had a good debate, but she often does and it hasn’t helped her all that much so far.

–All the candidates except Klobuchar are perfectly okay with a “Democratic Socialist” at the head of the Democratic ticket. Isn’t that special? Look how wide open that Overton Window is now, in just a few short years.

My guess is that there are three reasons they’re so fine with it. The first is that socialism really is just peachy keen with them. The second is that they know it especially appeals to the youth vote, which is one of the blocs Democrats need in order to win. The third is that if Sanders becomes the nominee, he’s going to need a Veep who’s okay with “Democratic Socialism.” Some of them are looking to be VP. And of course, Bernie isn’t exactly a spring chicken, so being his vice president could be a stepping stone to the presidency itself.

The prospect of one of them winning, and/or of the Senate being taken over by the Democrats, fills me with dread because the party has shifted so dramatically left. I don’t think that victory is likely but I absolutely think it’s possible.

Incredible survival story

The New Neo Posted on by

I have a new YouTube vice: binge-watching old programs of “I Shouldn’t Be Alive,” a show that aired from 2006 to 2012 and featured survival story re-enactments.

All the stories are true, and they’re narrated by the actual people who experienced them, plus re-enactments with actors playing their parts. One particularly interesting thing about the show is that there is no suspense about whether the person makes it. After all, there’s the title. And the person is sitting right there, intermittently narrating the tale. But the suspense is enormous anyway, and it focuses on the fact that the scenarios really do not seem survivable. So the viewer – at least, this particular viewer – is hooked right to the end, thinking “How does it happen? How on earth does this person make it?”

Another fascination for me is the exploration of the mental states of people facing extremely harrowing conditions. For the most part these are quite ordinary people, and yet their behavior under tremendous physical and mental stress features impressive strength. Often, though that strength is preceded by remarkable stupidity in making decisions that lead to the risk. And then, either combined with the stupidity (or let’s just call it bad judgment) that is sometimes present, there’s tremendous bad luck that makes it even worse. And at the very end, there’s either incredible good luck or incredible ability to figure out a way of escape, or both.

Here’s one video in the show that doesn’t seem to feature any bad decisions on the part of the survivor. It’s fairly typical of the genre otherwise, though (although the video’s title is not wholly accurate):

Sanders 2020 and Trump 2016

The New Neo Posted on by

Looking at the 2020 Democratic primaries, it occurs to me that Sanders’ position in the Democratic field in 2020 is something like Trump’s in the Republican field in 2016. If you think that sounds bizarre, please hear me out before you decide. Yes, they’re very different. But there are some striking similarities as well, particularly in the dynamics of the field.

Both men are outside whatever passes for the establishment in their parties. For the Democrats, the “establishment” is in a state of flux, but it appears to be represented by Joe Biden, who is in somewhat of a similar position to that of Jeb Bush within the GOP field in 2016. Joe and Jeb share a bit more than just their initials, too; each was thought to be the frontrunner and yet both don’t seem to engender much (if any) enthusiasm in the public. They’re different as personalities and certainly politically, but there’s something similarly tepid in their support, and they seem flatfooted in knowing how to deal with their more energetic opponents, Bush’s Trump and Biden’s Sanders.

Like Trump, Sanders has enthusiastic supporters. That counts for a lot. They are devoted to him and believe he can make it, and are willing to work hard for it. Sanders is a leftist but a sincere one, and when he speaks his supporters don’t hear the same-old same-old. One of Trump’s greatest strengths is the fact that his supporters feel he understands them and is talking to them from the heart, and the same is true of Sanders.

It’s a rare quality these days in politicians, and a valuable one. I believe it’s the main reason Sanders is doing so well right now – that, and the Democrats’ huge shift to the left duirng the last decade or more.

The other thing both men have in their favor is the number of candidates running against them. To those who oppose them, it seems as though if only the opposition would coalesce behind just one other candidate, that would be the solution to defeating Sanders (and Trump before him). This deep desire to nominate just about anyone else is partly due to the idea that Sanders (and Trump before him) cannot win. In 2016, if Trump were nominated and he didn’t win, that would mean that the dread Hillary would be elected. In 2020, if Sanders is nominated and he can’t win, that will mean the dread Donald would be re-elected. These are nightmare scenarios for each party, and although Trump won the presidency against most predictions, and Sanders could win the presidency, neither outcome seemed very likely at the outset. Thus, the fear within each party.

[NOTE: Oh, and both Trump and Sanders are from New York City. Bernie’s been away in Vermont for many decades, but to me he’s a New Yorker through and through. And, interestingly enough, one of the un-Sanders (anti-Sanders?) candidates on the Democratic side is another New Yorker: Bloomberg.]

There may be an Iowa recanvass

The New Neo Posted on by

It’s supposedly a dead heat between Sanders and Buttigieg in Iowa, and there have been calls for a recount:

Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez is calling on Iowa Democratic officials to immediately recanvass Monday’s caucus vote after days of uncertainty and growing concerns about “inconsistencies” found in the data.

“Enough is enough,” Perez said in a tweet. “In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvass.”

A recanvass is essentially a double-checking of the vote. Iowa officials would have to hand -audit the caucus worksheets and reporting forms to ensure that they were correctly calculated and reported.

But whatever trust the public once had in the process is gone, perhaps permanently.

The results so far, for what it’s worth:

As of Thursday morning, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg was clinging to the narrowest of leads in Iowa over Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., with 97 percent of the caucus vote released.

Buttigieg was at 26.2 percent and Sanders had 26 percent, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., running behind the pair of leaders at 18.2 percent. Former Vice President Joe Biden had 15.8 percent, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., at 12.2 percent and other candidates were in low single digits.

New Hampshire has a very different system:

New Hampshire’s primary is an election run by municipal officials, as opposed to the political parties that run the Iowa caucuses.

New Hampshire voters fill out paper ballots in all 309 voting locations, from the most congested ward in Manchester to the most isolated of North Country towns.

The Accuvote machines used by most towns to count ballots can’t be hacked because they aren’t online.

And, as required by the state constitution, the moderator reads the results at each polling location while the clerk records them by hand.

It help to have a small population. I expect it to go quite smoothly.