The Middle East pessimists have certain things in common with each other, and a prominent one is that they think Trump is a gullible fool.
I don’t see evidence for that description, although I know a lot of people believe it. It seems absurd to me that Trump didn’t expect what just about every blogger and commenter on the right expected – which is that Hamas would not comply with the deal and disarm, and probably would not cooperate in myriad other ways. I think it was always part of Trump’s expectation.
But the deal accomplished three very important things:
(a) It got some other Middle Eastern countries to commit to backing it. And they might end up being in non-compliance, too, although they have some economic incentives to fulfill their part of the deal.
(b) It got the hostages back at the outset. That was vitally important to untie Israel’s hands.
(c) It gave the world notice that it’s the Israelis who are willing to “give peace a chance.” It throws the spotlight on the continuing violence of Hamas, and if and when Israel has to go back to dealing with them harshly, Israel’s justification will be clear – not that most of the world will ever give them credit. I’ll add that the NeverNetayahu crowd in Israel will never give Bibi credit, either.
None of these things mean the deal will work out. But it’s part of the plan’s brilliance that it accomplishes these three things at once. Neither Trump, Kushner, Rubio, or Witcoff are naive enough to not understand the perils and risks, which are obvious. I doubt they are without a plan for contingincies, although they’re not telegraphing exactly what it is.
In other words, as this article says, “No one is under any illusions.” From the piece [emphasis mine]:
A total of 154 of the 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences or lengthy terms who were freed in the first stage of the hostage deal and the end of the war were transferred through the Rafah Crossing to Cairo. They are currently under Egyptian supervision in a hotel, in coordination with Israeli security officials. These prisoners, classified as deportees, are undergoing medical checks and receiving humanitarian support under the oversight of Red Cross representatives.
Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence continues to monitor those who have returned to their homes in the West Bank. “The terrorists understand that the situation has changed, but no one is under any illusion—they are not lovers of Zion,” a senior security official said. …
Palestinian sources estimate that some of the released prisoners may eventually settle in Turkey, Qatar, or other Arab states, while others are expected to remain in Egypt and rebuild their lives there. The 154 exiles are staying in a Cairo hotel under Egyptian security supervision, undergoing medical checks and humanitarian processing.
Turkey and Qatar have both expressed willingness to receive some of the released prisoners, though no official announcements have been made. Each prisoner’s destination was preapproved by Israel and included in the release agreement, and permission to remain in Cairo depends on the Egyptian authorities. …
Alongside the operational deployment, the IDF continues real-time intelligence collection and sensitive outreach to the families of released prisoners to prevent potential friction or violent incidents. Monitoring of the prisoners and their relatives will continue closely, with increased military presence in certain areas.
And that’s just what’s being reported. I’m going to assume there’s a lot more going on.
On many websites I’ve seen jokes about equipping the released prisoners with beepers. No, that’s not happened. But I wouldn’t underestimate the Israeli authorities and their creativity.
I repeat: all of this doesn’t mean everything will be as rosy as the rhetoric has been. But I don’t think that either the Israelis or Trump and his negotiators are naive about the nature of Hamas and the Palestinians.