Here’s some recent research on the relation between COVID deaths and obesity:
To identify potential patterns in data, the researchers employed cutting-edge techniques of statistical analyses.
“The main finding from the analysis is a statistically significant positive association between COVID-19 mortality and the proportion of the overweight in adult populations spanning 154 countries,” Beladi said. “This association holds across countries belonging to different income groups and is not sensitive to a population’s median age, proportion of the elderly, and/or proportion of females.”
Beladi added that when the proportion of the overweight people in a country’s adult population is one percentage point higher than the proportion of the overweight in a second country’s adult population, based on this study, it is reasonable to predict that COVID-19 mortality would be 3.5 percentage points higher in the first country than it would be in the second…
They added that on average, the COVID-19 pandemic has been more fatal for adult populations residing in parts of the world characterized by excess body weight.
When I read about this study, something struck me as odd. I once did some research on what the world’s fattest countries are, and the answers surprised me at the time. Those countries are for the most part not places with high COVID tolls. If this research is true, why would that be?
One reason is, of course, that weight is only one factor in COVID deaths and there are many others (including, for example, method of defining and reporting). But still, isn’t it odd that the countries with the fattest populations aren’t the highest in COVID deaths per million? Some of them of course, are small islands such as Tonga and Samoa, which are relatively isolated. But many are Arab countries such as Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAR, and Qatar, as well as Turkey, Egypt, and Libya.
Then compare that list of obese countries to this list of COVID deaths per million/population (scroll down a bit to find the chart, and then look at the “Deaths/1M pop” column), country by country. Better yet, compare this much longer and more complete list of countries ranked on obesity (scroll down about 2/3 of the way to find it) to that COVID death rate chart. Your should be able to immediately see that it seems far more haphazard than the study might indicate. Just to take a few examples, Peru has the highest COVID death rate in the world, but it’s on the thinner side as countries go. Bosnia and Herzegovina, next on the list in terms of COVID deaths per million, is even thinner. Hungary, Bulgaria, and Czechia have extremely high COVID death rates and are more or less middling in terms of European obesity rates, which are not all that high to begin with. As for those Arab countries that have very high obesity rates, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar, their COVID death rates are very low.
Perhaps there’s something I’m missing, but this seems odd to me.
Going to the report itself, I don’t see much light shed. The number of countries involved in the obesity research was 154, but we don’t know which they are. One hint, though, is here [emphasis mine]:
We observe a statistically significant positive association between COVID-19 mortality and the proportion of the overweight in adult populations spanning 154 countries. This association holds across countries belonging to different income groups and is not sensitive to a population’s median age, proportion of the elderly, and/or proportion of females. The estimated elasticities of COVID-19 mortality, with respect to the proportion of the overweight in adult populations, are consistently higher for sub-samples of countries that belong to a higher income group.
So is this reported effect found only or mostly or most strongly in high-income groups within certain countries? Also, are some of the puzzling anomalies I see the result of other factors such as differing ages of the countries’ populations, differences for which the researchers have corrected? I have no idea, but perhaps there’s something like that involved. I know more than the average person about crunching numbers, but not enough to be able to decipher this. Perhaps some of you can do so.
There’s another clue towards the end of the article, where it says this: “our findings call for immediate and effective regulations (e.g. restrictions on ‘serving’ the market for food and beverages with items, the intake of which can result in the accumulation of excess body weight) that are long overdue.” Aha! So they’re seeking to make it more difficult (or at least more costly) for people to make their own food choices as they see fit, a la Bloomberg’s big gulp order. This fits in with much else that we’ve seen from health authorities regarding the use of COVID statistics to control people “for their own good.”