One of the few – very few – blessings connected with COVID so far has been that for the most part children have not had bad cases, and very few deaths. Our children and grandchildren are precious beyond description, and we would do almost anything to protect them if we could.
At present children under twelve are unvaccinated for two reasons. The first is the general mildness of the illness in children, and the second is that the vaccine is relatively untested in children. Those two things change the risk/benefit ratio for vaccination for young children, at least for now.
But lately the Delta variant has reared its ugly head. As commenter TommyJay states:
The latest push seems to be that children are much more at risk with Delta. At risk of infection. or risk being spreaders, or risk of getting really sick? Would you trust their answer if they gave one?
An example of what he’s talking about can be seen in this NBC News article, for example, which is headlined in a large font: “As delta variant spreads, medical experts warn of risk to young children.” That headline alone is enough to frighten a parent or grandparent.
The subtitle goes like this: “A Covid vaccine has not yet been authorized for children under the age of 12, putting them among the unvaccinated who are at risk of infection.” That’s certainly true, although obvious and not necessarily all that meaningful if the infections tend to be similar to the infections caused in children by the previous variants.
In the second paragraph of the article it says: “As of July 8, more than 4 million children had been diagnosed with Covid-19, representing 14.2 percent of all cases, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.” Is that different than the percentage of cases in children prior to Delta? And of course, one would expect the percentage of children among cases to go up compared to pre-vaccine times, because children represent a large percentage of the unvaccinated and the unvaccinated are apparently more vulnerable.
The article goes on to say:
At least 335 children, ages 17 and younger, have died from Covid-19, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, although serious complications in kids remain extremely rare. But increasing cases among children, including severe ones, are expected as the delta variant spreads and with no Covid vaccine authorized for children under the age of 12.
That paragraph fails to mention that of the children who died, virtually all had significant pre-existing conditions.
More:
“Last year, for example, you would have to give a child a really high infectious dose to make them sick, but with the virus that’s more contagious, even what would be an insignificant exposure could get them sick,” said Dr. Carlos Oliveira, a pediatric infectious diseases doctor and assistant professor of pediatrics at the Yale School of Medicine.
I’d love to know on what that statement is based. I’d also like to know what Dr. Oliveira means by “sick” – does he mean an asymptomatic positive test or sick enough to feel sick? The article doesn’t say.
Children have gotten COVID right from the start of the pandemic, mostly with mild symptoms. For example, take a look at this article which studies cases in the spring and summer of 2020, way before there was any vaccine. The title is: “Continued proportional age shift of confirmed positive COVID-19 incidence over time to children and young adults: Washington State March—August 2020.” Here’s an excerpt from the abstract:
After the peak (March 22, 2020), incidence declined in older age groups and increased among age 0–19 and 20–39 age groups from 20% to 40% of total cases by April 19 and 50% by May 3. During this time testing expanded with more testing among older age groups and less testing among younger age groups while case positivity shifted young. Percent positive cases age 0-19/20-39 years through August 2020 increased to a consistent average of 60% [age 0–19 increased to 19% (N = 10257), age 20–39 increased to 42% (N = 30215)].
If Washington cases are any indication, that’s an even higher percentage of young children among diagnosed COVID cases than we are seeing now.
Back to that NBC article, which finally comes out with this:
Still, there is no evidence that children are more susceptible to the delta variant of the virus than others who are unvaccinated or that it causes more severe illness.
Dr. Sean O’Leary, vice chair of the committee on infectious diseases for the American Academy of Pediatrics, said “it is more contagious in kids just like it’s more contagious in other unvaccinated individuals, but it’s not more contagious in kids than other unvaccinated individuals.”
None of this really deals with whether this variant causes more serious cases in children than other variants do. Apparently the answer is that they don’t know:
Dr. Jennifer Lighter, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at NYU Langone Health, said the delta variant, while it is “certainly more contagious,” doesn’t appear to be more dangerous to children than other variants…Versalovic also said, “We have no firm evidence that the disease severity in children and adolescents is any different with the delta variant.”
They have “no firm evidence.” Do they have any evidence of it? Isn’t that something we need to know? Surely they have some figures that bear on that, such as the ratio of hospitalized cases in children vs. diagnosed cases in children, pre-Delta and post-Delta. But I’ve been unable to find any such figures.
This really doesn’t engender a lot more trust in medical authorities than we had a few months ago, and most of us feel less trust than we did pre-COVID. TommyJay’s final question was, “Would you trust their answer if they gave one?”