It’s another giant step down the road to the ruin of the tacit agreements that allowed this country to function in a relatively peaceful manner. First we have the leak of Alito’s alleged majority opinion overturning Roe, and then the publication by Politico – although I wouldn’t expect the press to restrain itself, since this leak was most likely perpetrated by the left to attain some of the goals of the left.
There are multiple articles about the leak and the opinion just about everywhere, and I suggest reading some at Legal Insurrection, Powerline, and RedState. This one is of interest as well.
Goals? Intimidation of conservative justices: check.
Inflaming of Democrat voters: check.
One thing we do know is that the 98-page draft is authentic, because Justice Roberts has confirmed that, while adding that it’s not a final opinion, calling for an investigation by the SCOTUS marshal, and saying that the Court’s work will be unaffected.
I’ll leave aside the question of who leaked it, because it’s very speculative at this point, but most of the chit-chat centers on Sotomayor and/or a clerk of hers who is graduate of Yale Law School. Most law schools have become leftist activist training centers these days.
But the leak could even have been perpetrated by someone on the right, although I think the chances of that are extremely low, since the leak this would seem more likely to serve the purposes of the left. However, if the leak is specifically meant to intimidate John Roberts into upholding Roe – as so many people believe, and I tend to concur with that – and the vote against Roe was already 5-3 without him, then what purpose would a Roberts change of vote serve? If he joins the pro-Roe side the vote still only comes to 5-4 against. I’m not sure whether the difference between 6-3 and 5-4 is a difference that matters, although I suppose the closer the vote the more it fuels the leftist drive for court-packing (which already is probably quite well-fueled).
What are the political consequences if Roe is overturned? I believe that most Americans are unaware of what overturning Roe would do in the legal sense, because the left doesn’t want them to know. So many people appear to think it would outlaw abortion, but that’s certainly not true. It would allow a state to do so, however, and the reality is that not too many states would be likely to ban it outright, and those states almost certainly would be strongly red states. Blue states would keep very lenient abortion laws, and purple states would probably have some abortion but restrict it somewhat.
However, the left does not surrender ground once won. All leftist ground is sacred. Repealing Roe is considered a kind of sacrilege to what has become the leftist religion, and it cannot be allowed.
As for the leak itself, as commenter “MBunge” says:
This leak, if it’s accurate, is possibly the most outrageous and damning betrayal of U.S. legal community ethics in history. Even John Roberts is going to be enraged by this and he’ll be joined by any pundit or legal thinker out there who even pretends to believe in judicial independence and integrity.
This is the Left almost literally declaring war on the U.S. federal court system.
However, now it’s done. It’s of a piece with so much recent court intimidation by the left. The left must think this is a winning hand, but I’m not at all sure. Biden and Democrats are hugely unpopular right now for other reasons, and most people who would be extremely outraged by a Roe repeal may have already been among the minority planning to vote for Democrats. It would be nice if the GOP could get out the word that repealing Roe merely throws the question back to the states, because that might allay some fears as well. I also don’t understand the assumption that this will only rally the left, because it seems to me that it could also energize the right, which finally smells victory in its long fight against Roe, a victory which only could have happened with Court appointments by Republicans.
The left is indeed energized to demonstrate, however. Going back to the summer of 2020 and all the riots doesn’t seem to be a winning hand for them either, but who knows? They’re been playing the January 6th Insurrection card for so long that it might make them look like hypocrites as well to start (or revive) their own insurrection. But the appearance of hypocrisy has never been much of a stumbling block for them before, and I doubt it will be now.