Reading Putin’s mind
[NOTE: I don’t usually post on Sundays, but so much is happening that I thought I’d just put up a brief one and start a new thread that way. So here it is.]
Wish I was a mind reader, but I’m not. One question I’d like answered is whether Putin has really gone off the deep end or whether he’s just being threatening as a negotiating tactic. It could be some strange combination of the two, of course, but which predominates? His actions have already seemed over-the-top in launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and in throwing even more forces into the fray.
The threat of nuclear weapons is now more explicit from him, although it’s always been in the air. There is a surreal quality about it all, but it’s very real nonetheless.
Dueling violin prodigies playing Winter in Vivaldi’s The Four Seasons
Christian Li is fourteen years old here. This seems to be a rehearsal. I love the way prodigies get a very adult and focused look on their faces when they play. His delivery is very fast, with lots of attack. Too fast for my taste, though. I think it’s impressive but that it sacrifices a bit of tone:
Chloe Chua is eleven years old here. The first piece she plays in this video is modern. I don’t like it that much but I left it in because she performs it so very well. The Vivaldi “Winter” starts around 5:51, and the video shows more of it than the previous clip does:
Musical prodigies such as these seem almost otherworldly to me.
Germany and Russia and Poland and Ukraine: some history and some speculation
I’ve been thinking about 20th Century history lately. At the beginning of WWII, not only did Hitler invade Poland, but Stalin did as well in the days when they were buddy-buddy for a while. And it was Stalin who took the elite of Poland into Katyn forest and murdered them:
The Katyn massacre was a series of mass executions of nearly 22,000 Polish military officers and intelligentsia carried out by the Soviet Union, specifically the NKVD (“People’s Commissariat for Internal Affairs”, the Soviet secret police) in April and May 1940.
…Of the total killed, about 8,000 were officers imprisoned during the 1939 Soviet invasion of Poland, another 6,000 were police officers, and the remaining 8,000 were Polish intelligentsia the Soviets deemed to be “intelligence agents, gendarmes, landowners, saboteurs, factory owners, lawyers, officials, and priests”. The Polish Army officer class was representative of the multi-ethnic Polish state; the murdered included ethnic Poles, Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Jews including the chief Rabbi of the Polish Army, Baruch Steinberg.
Then of course after the war Poland was controlled by the USSR for a long long time. It has no interest in now becoming part of Putin’s Russia, or coming under Russia’s aegis again.
Ukraine is east of Poland and shares a border with it. During WWII some Ukrainians initially (accent on that “initially”) greeted the Germans as liberators, because millions of them had died because of Stalin’s Holodomor – the famine that was made much worse by USSR policy. Then after the war they came under the thumb of Russia again as did so many of the small countries in that area (Belarus seems to still be under its thumb, perhaps from choice?).
The Ukrainians weren’t angels either. They kept massacring their Jews between the two world wars, so much so that enormous numbers of Jewish survivors of those massacres left during that time. The Einsatzgruppen found a home there, too, with many willing executioners among the Ukrainians. But that’s not the Ukrainian population of today (eighty years later), who elected Zelenskyy – a Jew whose grandfather fought for the Red Army during WWII and who lost three brothers in the Holocaust.
Today’s Russians aren’t the Russians of the Soviet Union, either, and Putin isn’t Stalin. But he’s a strongman who wants to recreate Stalin’s empire, and he’s stated that rather clearly for many years. Europe is shocked and stunned at the eruption of a hot war in its territory, as a result of Putin’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Did Putin think people there would just shrug when he invaded Ukraine? He could be forgiven for thinking so, because the west has shown so little spine in recent years.
Putin’s actions regarding the large scope of the attack on Ukraine, however, are somewhat puzzling. If he had kept his attack to the eastern parts of Ukraine where there are a lot of people of Russian ethnicity, I doubt he’s be getting the same amount of pushback and I doubt that Ukraine would be getting as much sympathy as now.
Is this report true?:
“I wish I could share more,” Rubio tweeted. “But for now I can say it’s pretty obvious to many that something is off with #Putin. He has always been a killer, but his problem now is different & significant. It would be a mistake to assume this Putin would react the same way he would have 5 years ago.”
Do we have more than one world leader of an enormous country who’s getting befuddled and having trouble with impulse control? It’s not all that farfetched a notion. Putin is now 69, a spring chicken compared to Biden. But still…it’s possible.
How’s Putin’s war going?
First, a general caveat: we have the fog of war, so there’s no reason to trust any reports. But still, there’s a general drift, and it may be correct.
The general drift is that Putin is surprised that the Ukrainians are putting up quite a battle. My personal opinion – based on little more than what I’ve observed of Putin and what I read in the newspaper – is that he expected one of two things: either the Ukrainians really would welcome Russia with open arms, or that the leaders of Ukraine would flee and general panic would ensue among the public, leading to widespread surrenders on the part of the Ukrainian military. He probably pegged Zelenskyy for a coward and a fool, and it never occurred to him that Zelenskyy would demonstrate personal courage.
Putin thinks he’s the only man in the room.
There are so many news articles about the Ukraine invasion that I’m sure you can find your own, but here are some to read with excerpts from a few. First we have a reported strike on a Russian airbase. Then we have this brilliant diplomatic move by the Biden administration in the lead-up to the war – appealing to China for help, with China promptly betraying the extremely misplaced trust.
Now that Ukraine has shown some resolve to fight, and the reality of the situation has set in for Europe, other countries who feel threatened by Putin are deciding they’d rather fight him now in Ukraine than on their own soil some day. And so some help in terms of armaments are going to be coming Ukraine’s way:
Former Soviet Union satellite state Slovakia — as part of now-defunct Czechoslovakia — is urgently sending millions of dollars worth of aircraft fuel and artillery ammunition to embattled Ukraine…
…The initial shipment includes 12,000 rounds of 120-millimeter caliber ammunition, 10 million liters (2.64 million US gallons) of diesel fuel, and 2.4 million liters of aircraft fuel.
Germany on Saturday reversed a historic policy of never sending weapons to conflict zones, saying the Russian invasion of Ukraine was an epochal moment that imperiled the entire post-World War II order across Europe…
From its own stockpile, the German government will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine. The government has also authorized the Netherlands to send Ukraine 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers and told Estonia it ship over send nine howitzers.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine marks a turning point,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in a statement. “It threatens our entire post-war order…
Germany’s shift comes as numerous Western allies are mobilizing to send Ukraine more guns, ammunition and even anti-aircraft defense systems as Russian forces bear down on major Ukrainian cities.
The reversal could mean a rapid increase in European military assistance for Ukraine…
Estonia, in particular, had said it wanted to send old howitzers but was prevented from doing so because Germany was withholding its approval. Estonia bought the weapons from Finland, which gave its sign-off, but Germany also has to OK the transfer because it originally sold the howitzers to Finland…
Poland has started sending ammunition by land, while Estonia and Latvia on Friday said they were beginning to truck fuel, Javelin anti-armor weapons and medical supplies to the Ukraine border for hand-off to Ukrainian forces. Elsewhere, the Czech Republic said it would send guns and ammunition, and Slovakia said it would send ammunition, diesel and kerosene.
On Saturday, more countries started chipping in.
The Netherlands said it will send 200 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine — often the top-requested type of military aid among Ukrainian soldiers and officials (apart from Western powers sending their own planes and forces to fight with Ukraine). And Belgium announced it would supply Ukraine with 2,000 machine guns and 3,800 tonnes of fuel.
Across the Atlantic, the United States on Saturday also upped its ongoing military assistance to Ukraine, authorizing up to $350 million to help bolster Ukraine’s defenses, funding that will include “further lethal defensive assistance.”
In addition to its stance on weapons shipments, Germany has also taken flack from some allies for its opposition to barring Russia from the SWIFT international payment system, which European countries notably use to buy energy from Russia. While there was some initial resistance across the EU to such a ban, the opposition has rapidly dwindled following the invasion and amid pressure from Ukraine. EU countries like Poland are now publicly leaning on Germany to follow suit.
All of that represents a real sea-change, and must be giving the Ukrainians a boost of anticipatory energy, as well as angering Putin (and making him even more paranoid about Europe and NATO than he already is, which is a lot).
Zelenskyy recently issued this appeal to Europe, describing the war as one in which Europe itself is threatened. They have memories of the Cold War, which wasn’t that long ago:
Roundup
News stories that are not about Russia or Ukraine:
(1) Was the reason Trudeau pulled back from the Emergencies Act that there was a run on banks? That’s my leading theory, anyway.
(2) Biden names Ketanji Brown-Jackson as his SCOTUS pick:
Not a huge surprise — Biden just picked the most extreme left-wing SCOTUS nominee in our nation’s history. Ketanji Brown-Jackson will make Sonya Sotomayor look like Sarah Palin. She’ll become the most predictable vote on the court — pro abortion, pro gender ideology, everything.
— Terry Schilling ?? (@Schilling1776) February 25, 2022
I think that anyone Biden would have nominated would be a reliable vote for the left, however. Brown-Jackson might be the most leftist of all the possibilities, but does that really matter when any such nominee would very likely be voting the same way as she? Also, perhaps – and it’s a big “perhaps” – her extreme leftism may mean that she won’t get the votes of the usual GOP suspects (Collins, Graham, Murkowski, Romney, etc.). My guess is that she probably will get their votes, though.
(3) The CDC continues its retreat from mask recommendations.
(4) Another George Floyd case verdict has come down, and I believe that it’s a terrible miscarriage of justice. Here’s a piece at Legal Insurrection about it. An excerpt:
Three former Minneapolis police officers were convicted Thursday of violating George Floyd’s civil rights, as a federal jury rejected their arguments that inexperience, improper training or the distraction of shouting bystanders excused them from failing to prevent Floyd’s killing.
Tou Thao, J. Alexander Kueng and Thomas Lane were convicted of depriving Floyd of his right to medical care as the 46-year-old Black man was pinned under fellow Officer Derek Chauvin’s knee for 9 1/2 minutes while handcuffed, facedown on the street on May 25, 2020. Kueng knelt on Floyd’s back, Lane held his legs and Thao kept bystanders back.
Thao and Kueng were also convicted of failing to intervene to stop Chauvin in the videotaped killing that sparked protests in Minneapolis and around the globe as part of a reckoning over racial injustice.
I know that legally, because Chauvin was found guilty, the word “killing” would be considered appropriate. But I think that grave doubt remains as to whether it was a killing or not.
Also:
This is injustice. Finding guilt for Chauviun is one thing, but the other officers actually did express concern for Floyd and were overruled by a senior officer.
This is a media conviction. https://t.co/KPRGTyGnw6
— Rekieta Media (@RekietaMedia) February 24, 2022
I’m in agreement with that tweet.
Open thread 2/26/22
Music, then and now:
Oil prices rise
Of course.
Putin’s worldview
A lot of people figured that Putin’s stated intentions weren’t really his stated intentions, and are belatedly realizing that apparently he meant what he said.
So it might be a good idea to familiarize yourself with what he’s been saying for quite some time. Here’s a very simplified and incomplete summary: Ukraine belongs to Russia, and it doesn’t matter what the Ukrainians might think.
Here’s a transcript of his invasion-announcing speech from February 22. And here are two analyses of his aims and his justification for those aims: this and this. And yes, they’re from Vox, which sometimes does does have good analyses. I happen to agree with the basic analysis in those two essays (although the speculation in them about whether the invasion will occur and what its scope will be is moot).
Both essays, and many people, think what’s described there represent Putin’s sincere beliefs. I agree with that as well. It’s a window into his thinking and a possible help in anticipating his moves and perhaps even preventing a worse result than already seems in the works. But I wouldn’t swear to his complete sincerity about these beliefs, either.
Dialogue
Yesterday I had a doctor’s appointment, and while I was sitting in the waiting room I was reading on my cellphone. An elderly man (more elderly than I am, anyway) was sitting across from me. He had a walker and seemed frail, and his wife was sitting near him.
Suddenly he looked straight at me and said in a surprisingly booming voice, “A whole lotta bullshit going on in the world today.”
I had to say I agreed.
Random thoughts on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
(1) For sanctions to work, they should not necessarily be considered a deterrence or a punishment. I suppose they would be a deterrence if the leader or leaders involved could be deterred that easily, but that sort of leader isn’t usually involved in the kind of aggression we’re talking about. What are sanctions, then? They are a predominantly economic tool most effectively used not only before overt aggression begins but before the country involved has assembled all the tools for that aggression. In other words, sanctions are meant to deny the country’s leaders the wherewithal to implement their plans. There’s also a second goal, which is to make the country’s population blame those leaders for the hardship of sanctions and perhaps unseat them, but that is rarely possible for the very same reason that sanctions don’t deter those leaders: their powerful determination to accomplish their desired ends. It also can, paradoxically, rally the population behind the leaders in shared sympathy.
(2) Putin got a goodly portion of his funds from providing Europe with energy, and Biden’s energy policy increased the price of the fuel Putin provided, thus enriching him even more. That’s in addition to the obviously Putin-encouraging element of Biden’s cluelessness, incompetence, and weakness – and that of the US in general lately.
(3) Europe could have embraced nuclear power as an alternative – and they may yet turn to it more – but in recent years it’s been closing plants rather than opening them:
As of 2016, countries including Australia, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Portugal and Serbia have no nuclear power stations and remain opposed to nuclear power. Belgium, Germany, Spain and Switzerland plan nuclear phase-outs by 2030. Globally, more nuclear power reactors have closed than opened in recent years[when?] but overall capacity has increased…
As of 2022, Italy is the only country that has permanently closed all of its formerly functioning nuclear plants, with Germany phasing out the remaining 3 plants by the end of the year. Lithuania and Kazakhstan have shut down their only nuclear plants, but plan to build new ones to replace them, while Armenia shut down its only nuclear plant but subsequently restarted it. Austria never used its first nuclear plant that was completely built.
Chancellor (1998-2005) Gerhard Schroeder negotiated the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, increasing European dependence on Russian gas. His successor Angela Merkel (2005-21) increased it much further, abruptly decreeing a phaseout of Germany’s nuclear power, scheduled to be completed later this year, and promoting Nord Stream 2.
(4) Putin seems to believe that Ukraine isn’t a real country, so it’s fine for Russia to take it over. Again. And Ukraine’s not the only country Putin feels that way about.
(5) It’s my impression that the people of Europe are shell-shocked (metaphorically speaking) to see an invasion and hot war breaking out in what is considered to be part of Europe.
(6) As a result of this action by Russia, smaller or moderate-sized countries – especially ones that are not members of a defensive alliance such as NATO – will almost certainly feel an increased need to have nuclear arms in order to deter an invasion such as the one that’s occurring now in Ukraine. The threat of serious retaliation of that type against Russia – as opposed to sanctions – is a more effective threat. This could lead to more nuclear weapons in the hands of smaller powers – in other words, nuclear proliferation. Ukraine has neither nuclear weapons nor a NATO alliance, so what chance does it have against Russia if Russia is determined to take it over?
(7)A quote:
If there’s anything that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has taught us, it’s that he is serious about his hatreds and is contemptuous of the rationalist tolerance that undergirds how we see the world.
(8) One of the reasons Putin gave for invading Ukraine is that it’s a corrupt state. That seems absurd because there are plenty of other corrupt states as well as plenty of corruption in Russia, and also because Russia has encouraged and participated in corruption in Ukraine. Also, who was an obvious part of the corruption there, and profited from it? Why, Hunter Biden and other family members (perhaps Joe as well), that’s who. See this from Austin Bay.
Recall, also, that Trump was impeached the first time for asking that such corruption in the Biden family be investigated. Zelenskyy was elected specifically as an anti-corruption president and outsider.
(9) “Putin is not Hitler” is quite obvious. However, he does share a desire to acquire more territory through war. But so far the Nazi analogies I’ve seen are to Hitler’s claim to the Sudetenland, a region that was given to him by Chamberlain et al at the Munich conference. But saying that Putin’s using a similar tactic doesn’t mean that he’s similar in all ways or even most ways to Hitler. Like Tolstoy’s unhappy families, all dictators are somewhat different.
(10) Russia has been doing this in stages:
The George W. Bush administration rolled out the idea of NATO membership for the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Georgia [Germany blocked this, citing Ukraine’s corruption – link] But Bush was unable to stop Putin from seizing two breakaway provinces of Georgia in 2008.
Similarly, former President Barack Obama, despite his ridicule of Mitt Romney’s anti-Russia statements, was unable to stop Putin from annexing Crimea and effectively seizing Luhansk and Donetsk in 2014. Interestingly, the only president this century during whose term Putin hasn’t seized territory was Donald Trump, a Putin pawn according to the Russian collusion hoax.
(11) Putin has said several times that the breakup of the Soviet Union was a great disaster. You may dislike Bolton – I’m not a fan either – but in 2014 he correctly described the situation regarding Putin:
“I think Putin knows that he has the high cards, militarily, economically and politically, and he’s prepared to use them,” Bolton said. “He gave us notice of his strategy seven or eight years ago when he said, in what is now one of the most frequently repeated quotes from his leadership in Russia, when he said, ‘The breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century.’
“It’s clear he wants to re-establish Russian hegemony within the space of the former Soviet Union. Ukraine is the biggest prize, that’s what he’s after. The occupation of the Crimea is a step in that direction.”
Putin had made the comments in a state of the union speech in 2005, and several times later, including his speech on February 22 justifying the Ukraine invasion (see this).
(12) Putin resents NATO and declares it a threat to him. It’s certainly true that it is more dangerous for him to invade a NATO country than one that is not a member, so in that sense NATO does have a chilling effect on his ambitions to reassemble glorious Greater Russia. He doesn’t think many countries that were part of the old Soviet Union have a right to be independent from Mother (Father?) Russia. In that way, NATO’s a threat to his territory-grabbing ambitions, not to Russia proper.
(13) The UN continues to be a joke, but not a funny one. For example, as all of this was going on, Russia was chairing the Security Council in a meeting to try to head it off. Ha ha! Good one, Putin. A real knee-slapper.
(14) Ukrainians with long memories might recall the Holodomor of the 1930s, when its good friends in the USSR instituted policies that helped to starve millions of Ukrainians:
The term Holodomor emphasises the famine’s man-made and allegedly intentional aspects such as rejection of outside aid, confiscation of all household foodstuffs and restriction of population movement. As part of the wider Soviet famine of 1932–1933 which affected the major grain-producing areas of the country, millions of inhabitants of Ukraine, the majority of whom were ethnic Ukrainians, died of starvation in a peacetime catastrophe unprecedented in the history of Ukraine. Since 2006, the Holodomor has been recognized by Ukraine and 15 other countries as a genocide of the Ukrainian people carried out by the Soviet government.
Open thread 2/25/22
These babies take that “Please keep off the grass” sign very seriously: