It’s hard to say whether a governmental policy of required Green farming – currently causing problems in The Netherlands and even bigger ones in Sri Lanka – is the result of wishful thinking on the part of the government or whether it’s a desire for willful destruction.
One-third of Sri Lanka’s farm lands were dormant in 2021 due to the fertilizer ban. Over 90% of Sri Lanka’s farmers had used chemical fertilizers before they were banned. After they were banned, an astonishing 85% experienced crop losses. The numbers are shocking. After the fertilizer ban, rice production fell 20% and prices skyrocketed 50 percent in just six months. Sri Lanka had to import $450 million worth of rice despite having been self-sufficient in the grain just months earlier. The price of carrots and tomatoes rose five-fold. While there are 2 million farmers in Sri Lanka, 70% of the nation’s 22 million people are directly or indirectly dependent on farming.
Things were worse for smaller farmers. In the Rajanganaya region, where the majority farmers operate just a hectare (2.5 acres), families reported 50% to 60% reductions in crop harvest. “Before the ban, this was one of the biggest markets in the country, with tonnes and tonnes of rice and vegetables,” said one farmer earlier this year. “But after the ban, it became almost zero. If you talk to the rice mills, they don’t have any stock because people’s harvest dropped so much. The income of this whole community has dropped to an extremely low level.”
But the damage to tea was the key to Sri Lanka’s financial failure. Tea production had generated $1.3 billion in exports annually. Tea exports paid for 71% of the nation’s food imports before 2021. Then, tea production and exports crashed 18% between November 2021 and February 2022, reaching their lowest level in 23 years. The government’s devastating ban on fertilizer thus destroyed the ability of Sri Lanka to pay for food, fuel, and service its debt.
Sri Lanka had other problems, too. But the Green anti-chemical-fertilizer laws seem to have been key in the destruction there.
The free part of the article ends with the questions: “What, exactly, were Rajapaksa and other Sri Lankan leaders thinking? Why did they engage in such a radical experiment?”
If any of you are able to access it, I’d be curious what the author’s answer is. But this article mentions some of the other problems and then characterizes the fertilizer decision as “ill-conceived” and “overnight.” So this was an impulsive move?
Gotabaya Rajapaksa had outlined his vision for an organic transition in his presidential manifesto. He was eager to rein in the use of chemicals that had been linked to kidney disease in Sri Lanka’s central and northern provinces, where they had washed into the water supply. Quixotically, this would have made him a global leader in going organic.
However, in a nation where more than 30 per cent of people are employed in the agricultural ukorale, a single 42-year-old farmer near Ballapana, a village 90 minutes’ drive north-east of Colombo, was floored when the ban was imposed in April last year. As urea, a key top dressing for rice paddy fields, and other fertilisers disappeared from shelves in less than a month, the remainder hoarded by those with the deepest pockets, Atukorale was forced to abandon a rice paddy she had leased after two successful harvests.
“The government told us to make our own organic fertiliser, from using dung from goats, from chicken and from cows and leaves from discarded material,” she says. “I didn’t have the means to make enough for two acres of paddy, so I left it.”
Manufacturers of organic fertilisers didn’t have the capacity to cover for chemical products coming off the market, Gotabaya Rajapaksa has since conceded, and what was provided by the government to farmers also proved nowhere near as effective. Atukorale has maintained another rice paddy in the area, afraid of losing the lease when it expires if she doesn’t, but after previously extracting 1000 kilograms of rice from it during a single harvest, it has since produced only 400 kilograms.
There’s much more at the link. The fertilizer decision was not the only factor in Sri Lanka’s fall, but it was a huge one and a self-inflicted one, top-down. The most benign explanation is that the leaders of the country are operating under a delusion or a set of delusions about how a change of such magnitude could ever be accomplished, and what its economic and physical results would be. And if so, they are hardly alone.
You can come up with the less benign explanations yourself.
And then there are the Dutch farmers. What do Dutch farmers have to do with Sri Lankan farmers? This:
Roughly 40,000 protesters gathered in central Netherlands to protest plans to curb the emissions of nitrogen and ammonia last month. Weeks later, the protests have continued across the country with no sign of abating…
The Dutch government is aiming to cut nitrogen and ammonia emissions by 50% by 2030 in a bid to improve air, land and water quality. The plans include cutting back on fertilizer used on farms and ratcheting back the number of livestock by an estimated 30%.
The country is one of the largest agricultural producers in the world, exporting roughly $97 billion in 2020 worth of fruit, flowers, vegetables, dairy products and meat…
Farmers say they are being unfairly targeted by the rules while other industries, such as aviation, construction and transportation, are also contributing to emissions and face fewer rules. Farmers also argued that they have not been provided a clear picture of their futures in light of the reforms.
Again we have the same questions: are the people who run the government merely abysmally stupid and in the grip of fantasy? Or are they actively destructive as part of The Great Reset? I guess it’s not either/or, because the two are not mutually exclusive.
Here’s an article from about a month ago, attempting to explain:
Nitrogen pollution is caused by the burning of fossil fuels, which releases nitrogen oxide, and manure from farm animals (when dung and urine mix), which emits ammonia.
The Dutch use “nitrogen” (stikstof) as an umbrella term in order to add up and compare emissions from industry and farms. Industries cause a small share of ammonia emissions, mostly in waste management, and farms cause a small share of nitrogen oxide emissions, mostly from the heating of greenhouses with natural gas…
Farms cause 85 percent of ammonia emissions and 40 to 45 percent of overall nitrogen emissions.
But they cause 60 percent of nitrogen deposits in conservation areas (to which they are more likely to be in proximity than industry)…
Dutch animal farming is among the most intensive in the world…
…The Netherlands has 162 [conservation areas]. They range from the dunes of Holland to the Veluwe National Park to the Wadden Sea to tiny preserves that dot the countryside in the interior. All are protected by EU law.
Excess nitrogen deposits in those so-called Natura 2000 areas are the proximate cause of the crisis. They cause some plants, like grass, to grow faster, but others to wither and die.
That can wipe out entire ecosystems. When plants die, so do the bugs that feed on them, which in turns kills the birds and ducks that eat the bugs — and a major impetus for the whole Natura 2000 program in the 1990s was to protect European bird species…
That year, the Council of State, the Netherlands’ highest administrative court, ruled that more needed to be done. It took Rutte’s four-party coalition, which includes the traditionally pro-farmer Christian Democrats and the environmentally-friendly D66, almost three years to come up with a solution.
In the meantime, judges struck down construction permits for not only farms but energy companies, housing developments, infrastructure and industry, because building causes nitrogen emissions, and the Netherlands was already in violation of its commitment to protect the Natura 2000 regions…
That plan is for farms to cut nitrogen emissions by 12 to 70 percent, depending on their proximity to conservation areas. In exceptional cases, where farms are situated in Natura 2000 areas, they would have to cut emissions by 90 percent to stay — which is impossible.
Farmers who cannot meet their targets would be given three options:
Downside, or switch from animal farming to crops.
Relocate.
Quit.
There is so much more in the article; I suggest you read the whole thing. The author appears to be mostly in favor of the government restrictions and against the farmers, by the way, but it’s still an interesting look at the positions and arguments on both sides. But I’ll just add this, which indicates the role the EU plays:
Farmers argue the models to calculate pollution are imprecise, the standards for deposits are arbitrary and the whole problem only exists because the Netherlands declared so many areas Natura 2000 preserves…
Perhaps previous governments should have been more conservative about setting aside lands for conservation, but now the Netherlands would need the European Commission’s permission to remove Natura 2000 classifications — and it is in no mood to help out a country that predictably hectors others when they break (debt and deficit) rules.
As I read this, it reminds me a bit of Soviet collectivization efforts. Less obviously brutal, of course, but the product of people operating under a theory that ignores reality. They are either extremely disinterested in the plight of the ordinary human beings living in their countries or actively hostile to them. I’m not sure there’s much of a difference between those two concepts.
