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A blog about political change, among other things

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Rasmussen poll on attitudes towards the FBI

The New Neo Posted on August 19, 2022 by neoAugust 19, 2022

If you’re still interested in polls and think they have any validity at all, here’s a recent one about attitudes towards the FBI. I think the astounding thing is that so many people still do have a favorable view of the agency:

A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports finds that 44% of Likely U.S. voters say the FBI raid on Trump’s Florida home made them trust the FBI less, compared to 29% who say it made them trust the bureau more…

Fifty percent (50%) of voters have a favorable impression of the FBI, including 26% who have a Very Favorable view of the bureau. Forty-six percent (46%) now view the FBI unfavorably, including 29% who have a Very Unfavorable impression of the bureau.

But what is most interesting to me is this:

Roger Stone, an adviser to former President Donald Trump, has said there is “a group of politicized thugs at the top of the FBI who are using the FBI … as Joe Biden‘s personal Gestapo.” A majority (53%) of voters now agree with Stone’s statement – up from 46% in December – including 34% who Strongly Agree. Thirty-six percent (36%) disagree with the quote from Stone, including 26% who Strongly Disagree.

Wouldn’t that suggest that not all the people who think the FBI is Biden’s Gestapo disapprove of that situation?

Posted in Law, Liberals and conservatives; left and right | Tagged FBI | 24 Replies

The Webb: more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy

The New Neo Posted on August 19, 2022 by neoAugust 19, 2022

The eagerly-awaited Webb photographs present a conundrum concerning a large and seemingly rather “settled” question in cosmology, the Big Bang. That article is by physicist Eric J. Lerner, who already was on record as a Big Bang doubter (does that make him a “Big Bang denier“?), but here’s what he has to say:

To everyone who sees them, the new James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) images of the cosmos are beautifully awe-inspiring. But to most professional astronomers and cosmologists, they are also extremely surprising — not at all what was predicted by theory. In the flood of technical astronomical papers published online since July 12, the authors report again and again that the images show surprisingly many galaxies, galaxies that are surprisingly smooth, surprisingly small and surprisingly old. Lots of surprises, and not necessarily pleasant ones. One paper’s title begins with the candid exclamation: “Panic!”

Why do the JWST’s images inspire panic among cosmologists? And what theory’s predictions are they contradicting? The papers don’t actually say. The truth that these papers don’t report is that the hypothesis that the JWST’s images are blatantly and repeatedly contradicting is the Big Bang Hypothesis that the universe began 14 billion years ago in an incredibly hot, dense state and has been expanding ever since.

What does it mean? I certainly don’t know, but it’s fascinating. I’m no physicist (duh!), but I’ve long followed cosmology to the extent of my ability to understand it, which is not a huge extent. But I’ve long wondered whether the Big Bang theory would someday be upended by something else, perhaps a return to ye olde Steady State, somewhat modified, or even something as-yet-undreamt-of by all of us Horatios.

NOTE: Here’s some more background, from about a month ago. And here’s an article discussing some of the historical disagreement with the Big Bang theory. I notice that a festival scheduled for a month from now in London, where Lerner will be speaking, is entitled “HowTheLightGetsIn.” Leonard Cohen’s “Anthem chorus,” anyone?:

Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That’s how the light gets in.

And sure enough, the HowTheLightGetsIn get-together is billed as a “THE WORLD’S LARGEST MUSIC AND PHILOSOPHY FESTIVAL.” Then again, how many music and philosophy festivals are there?

Posted in Getting philosophical: life, love, the universe, Science | 52 Replies

Open thread 8/19/22

The New Neo Posted on August 19, 2022 by neoAugust 19, 2022

Posted in Uncategorized | 28 Replies

Announcement

The New Neo Posted on August 18, 2022 by neoAugust 18, 2022

I’m still doing some work on the website that should continue for the next couple of weeks. I hope to manage it and make some technical improvements without any disruption of the blog while it’s happening. But if for some reason there’s any significant time that the blog is down, please go to my very old site neo-neocon.blogspot.com for updates on what’s going on. Thanks!

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Replies

The drumming-up of hatred against Republicans is escalating

The New Neo Posted on August 18, 2022 by neoAugust 18, 2022

The rhetoric from the left is becoming ever more dangerous and inflammatory. And it’s the left that says “words are violence” – if so, what shall we call this?:

Gen. Michael Hayden, the former head of the CIA and NSA, believes that you, dear readers, are more dangerous than ISIS, Communist China, and N. Korea — if you’re a Republican, that is. He said so explicitly in a retweet of a comment from Edward Luce, the blue-check assistant editor of the Financial Times, who wrote, “I’ve covered extremism and violent ideologies around the world over my career. Have never come across a political force more nihilistic, dangerous & contemptible than today’s Republicans. Nothing close.”

Let me add that Hayden and Luce are not the sort of people who used to be thought of as the far left – no radical long-haired hippies they, nor do they even resemble an old-fashioned Bernie Sanders type leftist, which makes them even more dangerous. Hayden is a 77-year-old retired 4-star US general who has the following resume:

…[F]ormer Director of the National Security Agency, Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence, and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Hayden currently co-chairs the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Electric Grid Cyber Security Initiative. In 2017, Hayden became a national security analyst for CNN.

He was Director of the National Security Agency (NSA) from 1999 to 2005. During his tenure as director, he oversaw the controversial NSA surveillance of technological communications between persons in the United States and alleged foreign terrorist groups, which resulted in the NSA warrantless surveillance controversy.

On April 21, 2005, then Lt. Gen Hayden, was confirmed by the United States Senate as the first Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence and awarded his fourth star-making him “the highest-ranking military intelligence officer in the armed forces”…

On May 8, 2006, Hayden was nominated for the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

A George Bush appointee who doesn’t seem to have been very concerned with protecting US citizens from federal surveillance, he backed Biden in 2020.

As for Luce, he’s a mere 54, a blue-blooded Brit who has been a journalist for his working career – for example, for the leftist Guardian – but whose family heritage is strongly conservative:

Luce is the son of Rose Helen (née Nicholson) and Richard Luce, Baron Luce. His father is the former Lord Chamberlain to the Queen (2000 to 2006), former Governor of Gibraltar, a Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) (1971 to 1992), government minister, and a crossbench member of the House of Lords. His paternal grandfather is Sir William Luce, Governor and Commander-in-Chief of Aden, Political Resident in the Gulf and Special Representative to the Foreign Secretary (Lord Home) for Gulf Affairs. His great-uncle is admiral Sir David Luce, First Sea Lord (1963–1966). His maternal great-grandfather is vice-admiral Sir Trevylyan Napier, who was the Commander-in-Chief, America and West Indies Station (1919–1920).

And the now-venerable (aged 77) James Carville, who always had a big mouth, jumps right in:

“People that believe that the election was stolen and have a right to storm the Capitol, which is a substantial number of people in the Republican Party, are evil. Our people are kind of silly. Their people are actually evil. Racism is evil. Alright. Misogyny is evil…yet the media is addicted to both-sidesism.”

…The problem the Republican Party has is they got really stupid people that vote in their primaries. And when you have that, you’re going to get in – really stupid people demand to have really stupid leaders. And that’s where the Republican Party is now. It’s not, you know, not all of it. There’s obviously some very high quality, you know, smart, patriotic Republicans. But they’re not in the majority. And they will tell you that themselves.”

Like Liz Cheney, no doubt.

If I retained the capacity to be shocked by this sort of thing – and I’m not so sure that I do – this would be highly shocking. These people have traditional credentials and, like so many others, seem to have swallowed not only the “Republicans are evil” line, but have no hesitation to say it right out in the open. The sentiment is now mainstream and non-controversial. The Hayden/Luce statement was posted on Twitter, by the way, which seems to have zero trouble with “hate speech” of the anti-right variety.

When Trump said that “they’re not after me, they’re after you, I’m just in the way,” he was completely correct. And it appears to be moving at warp speed.

I think this is happening for three reasons. The first is that leftism recently reached critical mass, a result of the decades-long leftward drift of the media and the educational system, as well as of other major institutions. The second is the amplification and dissemination afforded by the internet and especially by social media. And the third is that the left senses the growing popularity of anti-left sentiment, and they believe the best way to combat it is to demonize it.

Posted in Evil, Language and grammar, Liberals and conservatives; left and right | 79 Replies

Daniel Pipes on warning Rushdie

The New Neo Posted on August 18, 2022 by neoAugust 18, 2022

Daniel Pipes gets to say “I told you so” to Rushdie.

I wondered about the seeming lack of security around Rushdie that enabled his attacker to get so close to him. Scott Johnson has an interview with Daniel Pipes at Powerline that sheds some light on this:

I kept warning him, six times in all between 1990 and 2007, to take the death edict seriously and not to fool himself into thinking he was safe just because he had not yet been attacked. He not only ignored me but prompted his friend, the writer Christopher Hitchens, to ridicule me…

Rushdie chose to live in the United States and he refused security when it was offered him…

And yet it’s also understandable that Rushdie might be strongly motivated to “fool himself” and let down his guard. He had lived in virtual isolation for ten years after the edict was issued thirty-three years ago. To have gone on like that indefinitely would have been a burden so enormous that he might well want to take his chances. However, some sort of compromise involving major security would have seemed reasonable.

Looking at the content of the piece that in the interview was linked on the words “I kept warning him,” I see that Pipes has documented those warnings that he issued to Rushdie over the many long years since the edict against Rushdie’s life was first issued. Pipes was remarkably consistent in saying, in no uncertain terms, that the order to kill Rushdie would last as long as Rushdie lived and that Rushdie should continue to take it very very seriously and act accordingly.

And some of Rushdie’s statements, quoted there, definitely indicate that he wanted as little security as possible. For example, this from 2021:

May 15, 2021 update: Rushdie acknowledged his tendency to fantasy in an interview: “It’s true, I am stupidly optimistic, and I think it did get me through those bad years, because I believed there would be a happy ending, when very few people did believe it.”

It makes psychological sense, as I said earlier. Who can continue to live in such a highly restricted way, when every passing year indicates the danger may be past? Someone like Pipes must have sounded like Poe’s gloomy Raven to Rushdie, perched above the door and muttering incessant words of gloom.

It seems that Rushdie will survive the very serious attempt on his life that occurred the other day, although with permanent problems such as the loss of an eye. I wonder whether he will finally agree to heightened security after this ordeal.

[NOTE: By the way, corny cliche though it has become, that poem “The Raven” still gives me a cold chill when I read it. What a tour de force.]

Posted in Iran, Poetry, Religion, Terrorism and terrorists, Violence | Tagged Islam | 13 Replies

“Debunked” this and “false” that – and “deniers”

The New Neo Posted on August 18, 2022 by neoAugust 18, 2022

No doubt all you news junkies have noticed that the MSM has taken to putting modifiers such as “debunked” and “false” in front of any statement they don’t like. It’s so commonplace it’s become a sort of bitter joke on the right, like “Republicans pounce!” when the Democrats mess up and the right criticizes them.

Yesterday we were having a discussion about what to call the “false and debunked” method of characterizing such things. I suggested “the begging-the-question voice” – meaning this:

Begging the question is when you use the point you’re trying to prove as an argument to prove that very same point. Rather than proving the conclusion is true, it assumes it.

But that doesn’t seem quite right to me – not that it matters, because the people who do it couldn’t care less what I call it. It’s also a sort of proof by repetition, the idea that if the left and the press repeat something often enough a great many people will absorb it as truth. Another example, of course, is the assertion that Trump is a corrupt puppet of Russia, although the left’s attempt to introduce evidence to back that up really was faked, and later debunked. The repetition of the original falsehood worked, though, and it’s my impression that there are few Democrats who have given up the idea that it was true and remains true.

Commenter Ray Van Dune suggested “the derogatory voice” to describe these descriptive methods, and added, “For myself, I see it as a convenient signal that I am being coached or bullied into believing something that someone wants to make sure I know is not open to question!” Commenter MollyG thought perhaps the “gaslighting mood” would do.

And today commenter Sarah Rolph writes:

The practice of inserting opinion into a news story is known as “editorializing.”
It used to be considered a huge mistake, so it’s strange for us oldsters to see it becoming so common.

It certainly is a form of editorializing, but it differs in that it masquerades as a hard cold fact. “Debunked” doesn’t mean “I don’t believe it” – and in fact it’s an open question as to whether those making the “election fraud in 2020 has been totally debunked” claim believe what they are saying or just don’t care or actively would support election fraud by Democrats if it had occurred because it was all in the worthy cause of getting rid of Trump. The “debunked” claim about election fraud claims to be relying on absolute empirical knowledge when of course the way the election was designed there is no way to know for sure, and the court cases that dealt with it simply decreed that lack of standing and then later laches barred any real inquiry into the question, or that it simply was unanswerable.

So it’s not editorializing in a supposedly factual piece, it’s more than that and worse than that. And it works, whatever you call it.

In the very same vein but slightly different, the new phrase to describe those who would question the sanctity of the most non-fraudulent election that ever was, that of 2020, is “election denier.” Suddenly, nearly two years later, it’s everywhere.

I guess they’re like Holocaust deniers, only worse.

Here’s a good example. It’s an article purporting to discuss the results of primaries, but there’s a great deal of identification of “election deniers” – which is kind of funny, considering it’s a report on how these people did in an actual election, the GOP primaries for 2022.

If you scroll down at that link, there’s even a chart titled: “How election deniers are doing tonight.” The subtitle is: “Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin, as of 11:06 p.m. Eastern.”

It continued with the Wyoming and Alaska primaries, too. At another site (can’t remember where) I saw not only the phrase “election deniers” for the right but also “pro-democracy” for the left. The free, fair, perfect 2020 election has become a Truth that cannot be challenged without heretical apostasy, and in contrast its defenders are holding up the pillars of democracy itself. But of course, if fraud was indeed committed by the Democrats in 2020, then this nomenclature becomes especially Orwellian.

The reason that, from the very start, fraud allegations were invariably labeled by the MSM as “debunked” or “false” is that the canon had to be established firmly. Then it was only necessary to repeat and repeat and repeat till it became reified in many people’s minds. The “deniers” label is icing on the cake, and it will be used right up until Election Day 2022 and probably beyond.

Posted in Election 2020, Language and grammar, Press | 26 Replies

Open thread 8/18/22

The New Neo Posted on August 18, 2022 by neoAugust 18, 2022

We know we’ll never find another Judith Durham. RIP.

Posted in Uncategorized | 28 Replies

Today…

The New Neo Posted on August 17, 2022 by neoAugust 17, 2022

…I’m taking a one-day break from discussing the MAL search and its fallout.

Sometimes you just gotta.

You can discuss it in this thread, though, if you care to.

Posted in Uncategorized | 26 Replies

On the Rhine

The New Neo Posted on August 17, 2022 by neoAugust 17, 2022

In a post I wrote earlier today about Germany’s power problems, there was a link with a photo of a low-water Rhine and the caption: “A ferry cruises past the partially dried riverbed of the Rhine river in Bingen, Germany on Aug. 9.”

Here’s the photo:

Because I had to memorize a great deal of poetry in grade school, what immediately sprang to mind for me on reading that caption (“the Rhine river in Bingen, Germany”) was a cryptic stanza forming part of that sentimental old chestnut, Longfellow’s “The Children’s Hour,” about play-time with his own children:

They almost devour me with kisses,
Their arms about me entwine,
Till I think of the Bishop of Bingen
In his Mouse-Tower on the Rhine!

We had to memorize that poem, but I had no idea who or what the bishop or the mouse tower were, although even back then at least I knew something about the Rhine. It occurs to me now that this is the age of the internet, and I can finally find out about the rest quite easily. So here it is, and it turns out to be a surprisingly grisly tale; I’ll leave it to you to follow the link and read the details yourselves.

On looking at “The Children’s Hour” again just now, as adult and parent and even grandparent, I have to say that the deeper point of the poem used to be lost on me but now I get it – especially the last few stanzas. The entire thing is a description of how the three youngest of Longfellow’s children pretend to surprise him towards the end of the day in his study, making believe he is a fortified castle and they are an invasion force. The game is fun, and Longfellow plays along.

But those last three verses reveals how Longfellow really feels:

Do you think, O blue-eyed banditti,
Because you have scaled the wall,
Such an old mustache as I am
Is not a match for you all!

I have you fast in my fortress,
And will not let you depart,
But put you down into the dungeon
In the round-tower of my heart.

And there will I keep you forever,
Yes, forever and a day,
Till the walls shall crumble to ruin,
And moulder in dust away!

The particular fortress that was Longfellow has long since mouldered away, along with all of his children. But the poem and the feeling remain – although I doubt many school-kids are taught to memorize the poem these days.

Fugit inreparabile tempus.

Posted in Education, Getting philosophical: life, love, the universe, Me, myself, and I, Poetry | 6 Replies

Germany’s nuclear energy whiplash

The New Neo Posted on August 17, 2022 by neoAugust 17, 2022

Back and forth, back and forth:

Nuclear exit 1 began in 2000. The government back then consisted of the center-left Social Democrats and the Greens. The latter were in power for the first time, having grown out of the hippie counterculture of the 1970s, and in particular the German mass movement against nuclear energy. So Germany decided to phase out its nuclear power plants.

Exit 2 happened in 2010. The government, by then consisting of the center-right Christian Democrats and the pro-business Free Democrats, decided to exit from the first exit and keep the remaining nuclear plants running. Exit 3 followed within a year, after the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan. It spooked the government into exiting from its own exit of the preceding exit. That is, Germany again began phasing out nuclear power.

The country’s last three fission reactors are due to go offline at the end of this year. Bad timing, obviously.

Now Germany is experiencing a power crunch worse than that of most other European nations, which didn’t go the anti-nuclear route. Why did Germany? This isn’t really an answer, but it’s certainly a description:

Many Germans have spent their entire lives protesting against the splitting of atoms. The Green Party’s base, in particular, teems with zealots who consider all nuclear energy evil, and any attempt to nuance the discussion as tantamount to treason.

Well, now Germany is performing another pivot, at least for the moment – at least maybe:

Germany will postpone the closure of its last three remaining nuclear power plants, planned for 31 December, as it prepares for gas shortages this winter.

Anonymous government officials confirmed the move in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday (16 August), saying conditions have been met for the government to allow a temporary lifetime extension of three remaining nuclear reactors as the country is facing a likely shortage of gas due to cuts in supply from Russia over the Ukraine war.

Responding to the article, a spokesman for the ministry of economy said the report in the WSJ “lacks any factual basis”.

Not exactly what you’d call clear. What is clear, however, is that it is the Greens who are opposed to the extension.

As if all of that isn’t bad enough, Rhine water levels are low, and that hampers shipping – including the shipping of much-needed coal from Amsterdam.

This is somewhat ironic, as well: “High river water temperatures in France have impeded the operation of some nuclear power plants.”

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged energy, Germany | 29 Replies

The political divide

The New Neo Posted on August 17, 2022 by neoAugust 17, 2022

Here’s a new piece on a well-worn topic:

Keyboard conflicts occur every day across the United States. A not-infrequent outcome is that for political reasons, people cast away into outer cyberdarkness friends and even relatives: they are “unfriended.” Unfriending represents an aspect of an ever-developing public policy issue of Americans isolating themselves into hives of like-minded others who have no tolerance for anyone who falls outside their political ideology…

In October 2020, NPR explored the subject of political divides, which included the act of unfriending, in “’Dude, I’m Done’: When Politics Tears Families And Friendships Apart.” It reported: “Jocelyn Kiley, associate director of research at the Pew Research Center, said political polarization is more intense now than at any point in modern history. Nearly 80% of Americans now have ‘just a few’ or no friends at all across the aisle, according to Pew. And the animosity goes both ways.”

It’s my observation that some portion of that 80% of Americans with few or no friends across the aisle are in that situation because they purposely avoid people who disagree with them. But others have had it happen naturally, either because where they live practically everyone is on the same page, or because that’s true of their families or ethnic groups or those who share their interests.

For example, I’ve never shunned people who disagree with me, but because of family, demography, and general interests (the arts, for example), I don’t happen to know many conservatives. That makes me the opposite of the people described in that paragraph I just quoted because almost all my friends are from across the aisle. Even when I became conservative myself, that only increased the number of my conservative friends by a tiny bit. Of course, I know a lot of conservatives online, but we’re talking about regular friends in the non-cyber dimension.

And I never had that shunning impulse in the first place; if I break off with a person, it’s for other reasons than the political, and I’m not a big one for using cutoff even in those cases. In fact, I’ve only used it once that I can recall, and that was more of a mutual thing. Since I’m not on any social media such as Facebook or Twitter, I don’t have to deal with the unfriend phenomenon.

Not online, anyway. I’ve dealt with it in person, though, with some people deciding not to speak to me anymore. Most of my friends and family, however, are able to talk politics with me in a relatively respectful way, or we just agree not to talk politics at all. With that latter group, we’ve tried such discussions and come to the conclusion that there’s just no point, because they just stir up frustration and even anger to no avail. After all, a mind is a difficult thing to change.

I have no doubt that shunning happens on both sides, but it’s my very strong impression that it’s far more common coming from the left. And these days it can even be at the hands of someone who never used to be a leftist but instead was just a regular old Democrat. Now such people are more likely to take a much more radical view than before, and to be more intense about it as well.

From the article:

In 2016, the Hill, a Washington, D.C., political publication, printed “Poll: Dems more likely to unfriend people due to political posts,” an account of a study exploring political leanings and unfriending The article said, “The nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) found 24 percent of Democrats distanced themselves from people on social media because of a political posting. Nine percent of both Republicans and independents reported doing the same to those in social media circles. Additionally, 28 percent of liberals surveyed said they removed someone from their social media circle because of the content that person posted, compared with 8 percent of conservatives.”

That’s very much in line with my own observations, and I think January 6th and the hype around it by the left has exacerbated matters. I’ve had several people say to me the equivalent of, “Surely, though, you see that January 6th was a dangerous un-democratic insurrection…”

Recently I was at a gathering of a group of people, some of whom I’ve known for a long time and some of whom I didn’t know at all. I was talking to a woman I’d never met before, but who for various reasons I was virtually certain was on the left. We were talking about non-political things when suddenly, apropos of nothing, she asked me, “So, isn’t it something, all this latest stuff that’s happening with Trump?” After a pause, I answered that I don’t like to talk about politics. Her response was, “So you don’t follow it.” I couldn’t resist saying, “Actually, I follow it very closely. But I just don’t like to talk about it.” And then I changed the subject rather dramatically. If I hadn’t done that, I think she would have persisted in quizzing me more.

I’ve noticed lately that sort of phenomenon – that some people are determined to talk about politics and have trouble taking no for an answer. What used to be understood – that in most social circles, politics wasn’t something to talk about because it led to such fruitless and bitter arguments – is no longer standard operating procedure. I actually think that, until I refused to answer that woman, it had not even occurred to her that my politics might differ. When I said no, I think it started to occur to her for the first time, and she was having trouble wrapping her mind around the idea that it might be so.

You might ask why I desisted. It’s because I know from bitter experience that most people on the left don’t want an answer that differs from theirs. Instead, they want to be able to bond, to share some political observations – and hopefully some good old Trump-bashing – with a like-minded individual. In that sense, I spoil the party.

Posted in Friendship, Liberals and conservatives; left and right, Me, myself, and I | 93 Replies

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