One thing I can say about last night is that it certainly was dramatic.
Another thing is that nearly every article I read points out that McCarthy is now weakened. He’s certainly weakened by the rule change that allows a single GOP member of Congress to call for what amounts to a vote on whether to remove him (motion to vacate), but prior to that change the rule apparently was that five people could do it, and he had more than five who greatly opposed him already anyway.
But as far as “weak” goes otherwise – I think that the tiny GOP majority in this session would have made any GOP Speaker somewhat weak, because the party is so divided and a few members of either wing can bolt and hold up the works. It remains to be seen how weak or strong he really will be, but I think some weakness was already inherent because of the small size of the GOP margin.
I also think that in a little while these beginnings won’t matter; what will matter is what actually happens when Congress is in session. And because the Senate and presidency are in Democrat hands, the power of the House is mostly to say “no” to things the Democrats would otherwise be doing, as well as to investigate a lot of events and machinations that have cried out for investigation.
From Tucker Carlson, with whom I agree on this (stated on Thursday night, before the final votes):
If you want to be the guy who’s second in line from the presidency in America, you’ve got to work for it. And Kevin McCarthy certainly has worked for it this week, whatever you think of him. You get the feeling McCarthy would crawl naked through a sewer to get this gig. And that’s not necessarily an insult, by the way. It’s what it takes, obviously. Maybe it’s what it should take.
So if you take a deep breath and you think about it for a second, nothing we have seen in Washington recently, the supposedly apocalyptic world-ending drama of politicians arguing with each other, none of it qualifies as especially unusual or even bad.
In the comments today, commenter “MBunge” had this to say:
So, the guy no one can actually explain WHY he should be third in line for the White House becomes Speaker after several days of public embarrassment by making “concessions,” most of which should have been no-brainer things for a Republican-led House to do in the first place. Do I have that right?
No, I don’t think he has that right.
First of all, no one campaigns for Speaker or justifies a candidate for Speaker by saying why that person should be third (or second, if you leave out the president, so it depends where you start the count) in line for the White House. Although every Speaker is second/third in line, it’s not ordinarily the reason that person is elected, and few of them would qualify to be president or even be a desirable president.
However, plenty of people have explained why McCarthy would be a good Speaker, which is the real issue. You may not care for their reasoning or for them, but they’ve certainly explained it. It’s instructive to look at articles that attempt to explain it, such as this Federalist piece on the subject from October of 2022. One of the people promoting McCarthy for Speaker was Jordan.
Lastly, I think it’s good to put “concessions” in scare quotes. The reason I think it belongs there is that there is a frequent assumption that all the things in those rules were concessions that McCarthy would not otherwise have agreed to without the extreme pressure. I submit that some of them were just that (the vacate rule that diminished his power, for example, making it easier to have a vote to get rid of him), and some were things he would have done anyway. Which were which? We don’t know for sure, although I think there are clues in that Federalist article I linked.
You may say that was just hot air, and that without the recent fracas McCarthy wouldn’t have done a thing except appease the left, and that may end up happening all too frequently anyway. I say what I often say: wait and see. But don’t expect him to have the power to pass conservative legislation that the Senate will approve and Biden will sign.