Putin is planning the tried-and-true Russian tactic of throwing a lot of its male citizens into the fray and overwhelming the enemy by numbers. One problem, though, is that – unlike, for example, the Nazi invasion of WWII, when Russia was fighting a defensive war that was obviously a struggle for its own existence against an aggressive and implacable foe – this time it’s Russia that is the aggressor, although Putin’s rhetoric says otherwise.
Putin has tried to minimize his action in Ukraine by never calling it a war. But now he wants Russia on an obvious war footing, and it’s not going over so well:
Putin declared on Wednesday that 300,000 reservists would be drafted, as Moscow seeks to replenish depleted forces after a successful counter-offensive from Kyiv this month. The move is set to change the scope of Russia’s invasion from an offensive fought largely by volunteers to one that embroils a larger swath of its population.
The announcement unleashed a scramble for some Russians, with social media chatter on platforms like Telegram exploding with people frantically trying to figure out how to get seats in vehicles headed to the borders, with some even discussing going on bicycle.
Long lines of traffic formed at land border crossings into several countries, according to video footage. Images on Kazakh media websites appeared to show vehicles backed up near the Russia-Kazakhstan border. In one, posted by Kazakh media outlet Tengri News, a person can be heard saying their vehicle has been “at a standstill for 10 hours” in Russia’s Saratov region, as they try to make their way to Kazakhstan.
“Endless cars. Everyone is running. Everyone is on the run from Russia,” the person in the video can be heard saying. CNN cannot independently verify the videos.
Well, not everyone. But plenty of people. And not every nearby country is willing to take them:
The Czech Republic will not issue humanitarian visas to Russian citizens fleeing mobilisation orders, Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said on Thursday…
His stance was in line with that of fellow European Union members Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which border Russia, who said on Wednesday that they would not offer refuge to any Russians fleeing Moscow’s mobilisation of troops…
Finland said on Thursday it was considering barring most Russians from entering the country as traffic across the border from its eastern neighbour “intensified” following Putin’s mobilisation order.
And in Russia itself, over 700 protesters have been “detained.”
Men from the provinces are being mobilized first:
In Buryatia, a mostly rural region wrapped around the southern shore of Lake Baikal, the mobilisation has seen some men drafted regardless of their age, military record or medical history, according to interviews with local residents, rights activists and even statements by local officials.
Buryat rights activists suspect that the burden of the mobilisation – and the war itself – is falling on poor, ethnic minority regions to avoid triggering popular anger in the capital Moscow, which is 6,000 km (3,700 miles) away.
I have long avoided prognostications on the Ukraine war except to say that it will almost certainly go on for a long time and that it has potentially dangerous and wide-reaching consequences, some of which are already coming to pass (Europe’s energy and economic crisis, for example). I will add that this move of Putin’s certainly doesn’t reduce those dangerous possibilities, and it is most likely to increase the human cost. There is no dearth of people willing to say what it all means, but they disagree with each other and I think they are mostly just blowing smoke.
However, here’s an example that seems to be describing some rather obvious truths of the situation at the moment:
Even if the Kremlin manages to add several hundred thousand people to the roster of the armed forces, the Army would have to house and train them, a mammoth effort. In the best-case scenario, that will take months, by which time it may be too late to affect the trajectory of the war—not least because these new draftees will not be particularly motivated or trained in advanced modern weaponry. “If they had announced mobilization in March, by now they could have had, let’s say, fifty thousand new troops prepared—but they didn’t do that,” the person told me.
When describing varying levels of support for the war in Russia, the political philosopher Greg Yudin splits the country into three groups: “dissenters,” “radicals,” and “laymen.” That is to say, those who openly oppose the war, those who cheer it on, and those who do their best not to pay attention, respectively. As Yudin argues, the laymen represent the majority of Russians, who have tried to maintain their private lives while avoiding the entire topic of Ukraine and the war. “It is obviously deplorable but the upside of it is that these people are completely unwilling to participate in war actively in any way,” Yudin tweeted, in mid-September. Putin’s strategy had been to muddle through the war, offering the laymen life as usual in Russia’s big cities, and the radicals a historic battle against Nazis and a Western machine hellbent on destroying Russia.
Mobilization, though, will put the illusions of the laymen under pressure, if it doesn’t blow them apart entirely. But, as Yudin told me, that will be a process that happens over time, and it is likely to take place on a personal rather than collective level. In other words, expect individual discontent, perhaps even sabotage, but not yet a revolution.
That’s the price of minimizing the war. It had the advantage of keeping the Russian population quiescent and mostly acquiescent. A large mobilization means that it will be very very difficult, if not impossible, to sustain that reassuring narrative.
I don’t know what it would take to make Putin give up this campaign, and I don’t think he will unless there’s a way to save face. I can’t even imagine what that way would be. He is in too deep and his rhetoric has described this war as a fight for Russia’s existence. Does he actually believe that? I certainly don’t know; perhaps. But one thing of which I’m pretty sure is that Putin sees it as a fight for his own political existence, and that’s a fight he’s determined to win.
