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Those Trump vs. DeSantis polls

The New Neo Posted on April 20, 2023 by neoApril 20, 2023

I’m puzzled as to why anyone would pay attention to polls about Trump versus DeSantis at this point.

Trump is obviously going to be ahead of DeSantis at the moment. That may continue indefinitely and Trump may win the 2024 GOP nomination. But that situation may change, perhaps dramatically – and I’m not just saying that for the obvious reason that the 2024 primaries are a long way away. I’m saying it because DeSantis hasn’t even declared his candidacy yet, and I would wager that a huge number of potential GOP primary voters are mostly unfamiliar with him. And there has not yet been a face-to-face encounter between the two men such as happens in the debates, which should be telling.

I can guarantee one thing, though: if DeSantis does run, or even if he doesn’t, there will be plenty of Democrat crossover votes for Trump in the primaries in states where it’s permitted. And it won’t be because those people plan to vote for him in the general; it will be because they think he’s easily beatable. That’s sometimes a risky bet, but I think it’s one they’ll make.

Posted in Election 2024 | 34 Replies

Open thread 4/20/23

The New Neo Posted on April 20, 2023 by neoApril 20, 2023

Posted in Uncategorized | 33 Replies

What on earth is going on with Trump?

The New Neo Posted on April 19, 2023 by neoApril 19, 2023

Here’s the latest in Trump’s battle with DeSantis:

The former president came out in support of Disney on Tuesday morning, slamming Ron DeSantis for fighting back against the woke multi-national corporation.

That comes a day after DeSantis announced that Disney broke the law in trying to undermine a new state-appointed board put in place to control the company’s special district. The Florida legislature is now moving to void all the last-minute deals made by the old board, and it appears they are on very solid legal ground in doing so.

Yet, in a statement put out on Truth Social, Trump bemoaned the battle against Disney, suggesting that the company would cut investment in Florida and sell all its properties (presumably to move Disney World to another state)…[T]hat’s absolutely not going to happen…

Trump taking Disney’s side in its battle against DeSantis happened just days after Donald Trump Jr. urged conservatives to end an ongoing boycott against Bud Light. In both cases, it appears the Trumps are more worried about donor money than winning important cultural battles. That’s not exactly comforting given Trump is running on fighting and cleaning up Washington, DC. If he can’t stand firm against a company as blatantly woke as Disney, then that calls into question his resolve to face down any serious cultural challenge. If you aren’t even willing to face down Disney, you aren’t going to defeat the deep state.

One of Trump’s biggest assets was that people on the right could say about him, “He fights!” But now it seems to be, “He fights DeSantis.”

I have a theory about Trump which I don’t think I’ve yet aired. It’s something I noticed after he had COVID, shortly before the 2020 election. He was quite ill, as you may recall, and was given some heavy-duty drugs such as steroids. They have some strong side effects which are temporary, and he recovered pretty well. But after that his judgment seemed slightly off. And that has continued.

Posted in Trump | Tagged DeSantis | 77 Replies

Fox settles with Dominion

The New Neo Posted on April 19, 2023 by neoApril 19, 2023

To the tune of $787.5 million.

I’m with Scott Johnson here:

The settlement paid by Fox appears to represent the value of Dominion several times over (“like 20x”).

The amount of the settlement must be well beyond any reasonable assessment of Dominion’s actual damages, if any. It either includes a component of punitive damages exposure — an exposure that I have seen mentioned nowhere and may or may not have been in the case — or reflects Fox’s desire to avoid the embarrassment of trial. Absent any authoritative analysis of the settlement — the terms of which remain private as I write — my best guess is that $787.5 million was the price of avoiding embarrassment.

Extraordinary.

A Fox statement:

“We are pleased to have reached a settlement of our dispute with Dominion Voting Systems,” Fox News officials said in a statement after an agreement had been reached. “We acknowledge the Court’s rulings finding certain claims about Dominion to be false. This settlement reflects FOX’s continued commitment to the highest journalistic standards.”

“We are hopeful that our decision to resolve this dispute with Dominion amicably, instead of the acrimony of a divisive trial, allows the country to move forward from these issues,” the statement said.

In the post I just linked, Professor Jacobson explains:

The Judge granted summary judgment to Dominion that the statements about their systems being rigged were false. That wasn’t the issue in the trial, the issue was whether Fox News had a right to air the allegations on issues of public importance (and contrary opinions also were aired).

It’s not as though this is the first time networks have aired false statements. Au contraire. But these particular statements were about a company with quite a bit of money, that sued a company – Fox – that seems to have wanted to settle.

Posted in Election 2020, Finance and economics, Law | 23 Replies

On the GOP and fighting the left

The New Neo Posted on April 19, 2023 by neoApril 19, 2023

Yesterday I wrote a post which dealt with the fact that the GOP is refusing to appoint a temporary replacement for Senator Feinstein in order to facilitate the appointment of leftist judges. The title of the post was “Republicans hang tough,” and the last sentence of it was “for now.”

Anyone on the right knows the history of GOP weakness and caving, and of “reaching across the aisle” that remains unreciprocated, to say the least. Whether there is actually a “uniparty” or not (I don’t think so; I think there remain major differences between the parties although they have certain selfish interests in common), there is little question in my mind that many representatives of the GOP all too often have mounted a weak opposition to the left or none at all.

I also wrote a post recently that asked how far the right should go in playing hardball. I notice today that the same question has been taken up by Josh Hammer in this essay. An excerpt follows:

A decade ago, around the time liberals were boycotting Chick-fil-A en masse due to the devout Christian beliefs and strongly held views on marriage of the company’s founder and managers, many on the Right refused to countenance reciprocating with such “nasty” tactics, preferring instead to seize an illusory moral high ground. But concerted economic boycotts, it turns out, work: They are effectual punishments of one’s cultural enemies using the undoubtedly legitimate means of market pressure. The Right, it turns out, can mass-organize just like the Left can. Perhaps Anheuser-Busch will see the folly of its ham-fisted attempt to foist the transgender agenda down the throats of its disapproving — “fratty,” to use the Bud Light vice president of marketing’s now-infamous description — customer base. Or perhaps it won’t. Regardless, the dramatic and successful pushback, which continues almost two weeks later, underscores that the only way out is through.

Regardless of whether it’s enough (and I don’t think it is), I do see signs that the right has hardened in its fight against the left. Another example would be the recent behavior of Kevin McCarthy.

And here’s something a bit interesting. In the “Republicans hang tough” thread, commenter “Eeyore” mused:

The question is whether they’ll start to peel away. I wonder who’ll be first.

To which commenter “Art Deco” quickly replied:

The smart money says…
“1. Sleaza Murkowski
“2. Pierre Delecto”

The latter is, of course, an alias Mitt Romney once used.

Good guesses. But so far, no one appears to have budged.

And what did Mitt Romney aka Delecto actually say on the matter? This:

“They’d like Republicans to help them speed the appointment of more liberal justices? Yes — when hell freezes over,” he said.

Now, you might say that’s only rhetoric. But it’s certainly uncharacteristic rhetoric from the likes of Romney, and it’s been backed up by behavior.

So far.

And yes, a great deal more has to happen before the right manages to effectively counter the left, and it is by no means certain that any of it will be successful. But still, it’s a wee bit encouraging.

Posted in Liberals and conservatives; left and right, Romney | 17 Replies

Open thread 4/19/23

The New Neo Posted on April 19, 2023 by neoApril 19, 2023

Posted in Uncategorized | 56 Replies

Republicans hang tough…

The New Neo Posted on April 18, 2023 by neoApril 18, 2023

… on the issue of appointing a temporary replacement for Feinstein in order to approve the Democrats’ most leftist judicial appointments. Ace has the story here; it’s one of those rare cases in which even the GOPe group is doing the right thing. For now.

Posted in Uncategorized | 14 Replies

Chauvin loses on appeal

The New Neo Posted on April 18, 2023 by neoApril 18, 2023

I think there’s no question that Derek Chauvin should have won his appeal, but I would have been utterly shocked if he had. That’s the state of the legal system, especially in a place like Minnesota. The case will probably be further appealed, perhaps all the way to SCOTUS. But I have a strong feeling that the Supreme Court would refuse to hear it, because it’s so explosive a case and the consequences of ruling in his favor are so potentially catastrophic. So why not punt?

Powerline has two articles about the appeal, and I suggest you read them. I’m in agreement with the views of John Hinderaker, expressed here, as well what Scott Johnson writes here.

From Johnson:

Today the Court of Appeals affirmed Chauvin’s conviction. The opinion of the court is posted online here. On the issue of venue that court held that the trial judge “does not abuse [his] discretion by denying” change of venue if he takes “mitigating steps and verifies that the jurors can set aside their impressions or opinions and deliver a fair and impartial verdict.”

The court’s discussion of the issue at pages 14-20 has an air of unreality that is entirely in keeping with the trial itself. “[W]ith a few very limited exceptions, the [pretrial} publicity was generally factual in nature.” The court drops footnote 4 in that sentence referring to “statements by the MPD police chief and the commissioner of public safety describing the incident as a ‘murder’ before he was convicted. However,” the court adds, “because the district court took numerous mitigating steps and verified that the jurors could decide the case fairly and impartially, we conclude that this properly eliminated any potential prejudice among the seated jurors.” The court does not note that Governor Walz and Attorney General Ellison did so as well, or that the pervasive atmosphere in the Twin Cities was one of mob justice. As I say, unreal.

If this atmosphere wasn’t prejudicial, then nothing is.

From Hinderaker:

The Court of Appeals was no more willing to risk inciting riots than the Chauvin jurors were….

On the day of his death, George Floyd ingested three times a lethal dose of fentanyl. He showed the classic symptoms of a fentanyl overdose–most notably, difficulty breathing, which he complained of for 20 minutes before anyone knelt on him. Two months before the fatal Memorial Day incident, the same thing happened: Floyd overdosed on fentanyl. He was rushed to the hospital, where he spent three days and the doctors saved his life. The only thing that was different on Memorial Day, in my opinion, was that the ambulance didn’t arrive in time. I think the police officers were bystanders at at one of many thousands of fentanyl overdose deaths.

In my view, the medical testimony at the trial showed little evidence of death by suffocation. There was no significant physical evidence that Floyd suffocated; the prosecution’s testimony was mainly directed to showing that it is possible to suffocate without leaving evidence in the autopsy.

Hinderaker also mentions that the city of Minneapolis “announced that it would pay $8.9 million to two alleged victims of police brutality by Derek Chauvin.” In the two cases, each of which occurred years before the Floyd case, Chauvin used the “knee on neck or shoulder” technique that he used for Floyd – and which at the time was an acknowledged and recommended technique in Minneapolis for subduing certain categories of suspects.

One of those suspects got $1.375 million from the city for a case that originated in 2017 when “she allegedly tried to strangle her mother with an extension cord.” Chauvin was called to the scene, subduing her with the hold. The person in the other case, John Pope, received $7.5 million. Hinderaker adds this:

“Pope’s lawsuit said his mother was drunk when she called the police because she was upset that he and his 16-year-old sister left their cellphone chargers plugged in, leading to a physical confrontation. It alleged Chauvin struck Pope in the head with a large metal flashlight at least four times. It says he then put Pope in a chokehold before pinning him to the floor and putting his knee on Pope’s neck.”

No hint as to why Chauvin “struck Pope in the head with a large metal flashlight,” etc., other than a vague reference to a “physical confrontation.”

I think I can clear that up. In a post I wrote in 2021, I mentioned the Pope case, although not by name. I’m pretty sure it’s the same case:

A knee on the neck of a 14-year-old for 17 minutes. What a vicious, racist brute – right? Lost is the fact that the Minneapolis police listed that hold in its recommended ways to subdue resistant offenders (it has since been removed from the manual, post-Floyd). Lost also are these other facts, which I would consider salient [emphasis mine]:

“Prosecutors detail the Sept. 4, 2017, arrest in the court filing, saying Chauvin and another officer named Wells responded to a domestic assault call in which the mom said she’d been assaulted by her son and daughter.

After 33 seconds of talking to the boy, telling him he was being arrested, both officers grabbed him and when he resisted, Chauvin hit him with a flashlight twice, at which point the boy called out for his mom and said they were hurting him, prosecutors say.

“Chauvin then asked the other officer to Taser the boy, but he didn’t have one, so Chauvin applied a neck restraint that caused the boy to lose consciousness and go to the ground, prosecutors said. The officers handcuffed him behind his back while Chauvin knelt on him for about 17 minutes until after paramedics arrived and they put him in an ambulance.

“During the time Chauvin’s knee was on his back, the boy – whose ear was bleeding – repeatedly told officers he couldn’t breathe and asked to be placed on his back, which didn’t happen, prosecutors said.”

Another thing that didn’t happen was that being in that position for 17 minutes didn’t seem to physically harm the 14-year-old at all, much less kill him.

Prosecutors tried to introduce this evidence in Chauvin’s trial, but the judge refused. This is of interest also:

Chauvin’s attorney Eric Nelson responded to the state’s motion [to introduce video of the incident with the 14-year-old], arguing the video shouldn’t be admissible because the force Chauvin used in the 2017 arrest was in line with the department’s policy on dealing with uncooperative suspects, adding that Chauvin’s use of force was “reported to supervisors and cleared.”

“The state makes a point of noting that the suspect was rolled onto his stomach and cuffed while Mr. Chauvin used his knee and body weight to pin the suspect to the floor. As noted previously, this is how MPD officers are trained to handcuff individuals — particularly suspects who are resisting,” Nelson wrote, adding that there is “no marked similarity” between this incident and the Floyd incident.

The Minneapolis Police Department has since changed its use of force policy. In June, after Floyd’s death, it banned chokeholds and neck restraints.

In that 2021 post, I also used quote from a document Chauvin’s attorney filed in Chauvin’s original trial, that mentioned he had used neck restraints on eight occasions during his tenure as a police officer in Minneapolis. The document added that these:

…takedown and restraint techniques [were] taught and approved by the MPD. [Chauvin’s] “modus operandi” was simply that of a Minneapolis Police officer performing his duties and reacting as the circumstances, in which he was present and where the State’s attorneys were not, dictated. The State’s attempt to characterize these incidents as evidence of some kind of ill intent or common scheme of violence that is somehow unique to Chauvin is specious, at best. Finally, in each of the above incidents, the State attempts to characterize Mr. Chauvin’s use of force as “unreasonable” or “beyond what was needed.” Mr. Chauvin reported his use of force to the department in each of the above incidents,and in every single one, it was determined by a supervisor that Mr. Chauvin’s use of force was reasonable in the circumstances and authorized by law and MPD Policy. In essence, to the extent that his use of force was at all questioned — of which the State has offered no evidence — Mr. Chauvin was “acquitted” by MPD supervisors of applying force in a manner that was either unreasonable or unauthorized.

Now, even though the two people awarded the money in compensation were apparently uninjured, and both had allegedly tried to kill their parents, the city of Minneapolis – which no longer recommends these techniques – is compensating them with big awards. But Chauvin is the scapegoat for the whole sorry mess.

Posted in Law, Violence | Tagged Derek Chauvin | 27 Replies

On tax day

The New Neo Posted on April 18, 2023 by neoApril 18, 2023

[NOTE: This is an edited version of an essay of mine from the past.]

Today is tax day.

Ah, paying taxes. What fun! Along with close to 100% of Americans, I hate the process. It’s an attitude that unites us like almost nothing else. In recent years it’s even worse than usual, because the IRS has proven itself to be beneath contempt.

But to go back in time—tax day always reminds me of my father. He was both a lawyer and a certified public accountant, but it’s the latter profession that conjures up the April memories for me. He was not the Taxman (see video above) but the Taxmiddleman, the one who prepared tax forms, often of a very complex nature – and did it all by hand back in those pre-computer, pre-calculator, pre-Turbotax days. Actually, I suppose there were calculators back then – clunky mechanical ones, much like the calculator our neighbors had in their house to use for their business. But my father disdained and distrusted calculators, preferring to rely on his lightening-fast abilities with pencil and paper.

Every year starting around February – when my parents always went away to warmer climes for about ten days, in preparation for the long hard slog to come – until mid-April, my father would come home from work every night, eat dinner, and go immediately to a small table in our living room. There he’d set up shop until bedtime, which was around midnight or later, and then repeat the entire process the next day. Weekends it started earlier. No TV for him, and almost no relaxation, just this quiet sitting in a chair, bending over papers and fiddling with small figures.

For those months, we kids were instructed to tiptoe around in the evenings and not disturb him. This was a tense time. We could see it in his exhausted face and bloodshot eyes.

And so in our house tax day was a very happy day.

Posted in Finance and economics, Me, myself, and I | 10 Replies

Open thread 4/18/23

The New Neo Posted on April 18, 2023 by neoApril 18, 2023

I find this series to be well-acted and well-produced. You know at the outset – after all, the title of the show is “I Shouldn’t Be Alive,” and the real person is doing the narrating – that the person (or people) involved didn’t die. And yet at many points along the way you cannot figure out how they survived.

I’ve watched about ten different episodes so far, and could choose almost any of them to show here. They’re all good. For at least half of them, it’s possible to criticize the protagonists for not preparing properly. But still, these true stories are testaments to the human spirit:

Posted in Uncategorized | 30 Replies

Missouri puts some brakes on transitioning, and a furor ensues

The New Neo Posted on April 17, 2023 by neoApril 17, 2023

I’m so old I can remember when people who felt themselves to be trans didn’t immediately qualify for hormones and surgery – not even adults. There were some common-sense rules to protect the people themselves, and just about everyone understood that, including therapists, doctors, and nurses. Minors were never given medical treatment; just therapy. But even adults had to go through various rather lengthy trial periods of wearing the clothing of the opposite sex and living as that sex, as well as screening to make sure their mental health was otherwise good, before medical transition was started. Then there were years of just taking hormones before surgery was ever performed. Trans people were far more rare back then and predominantly adult biological men.

I don’t know the exact year the situation started to change, but it wasn’t all that long ago. Nowadays it’s pretty much transition on demand, and woe to the therapist or doctor or physician’s assistant who isn’t willing to facilitate the process in a very speedy fashion. Trans activists (a small but very vocal percentage of the trans population) consider any inroad on that approach to be an attack on their very existence.

And that battle is currently being played out in Missouri:

A first-of-its-kind emergency rule introduced this week by Missouri’s Republican Attorney General Andrew Bailey will impose numerous restrictions on both adults and children before they can receive puberty-blocking drugs, hormones or surgeries “for the purpose of transitioning gender.”

Transgender rights advocates have vowed to challenge the rule in court before it takes effect April 27. But promises of swift legal action have done little to ease the worries of trans Missourians like Bridgman who say it may be time to flee the state.

Before gender-affirming medical treatments can be provided by physicians, the regulation requires people to have experienced an “intense pattern” of documented gender dysphoria for three years and to have received at least 15 hourly sessions with a therapist over at least 18 months. Patients also would first have to be screened for autism and “social media addiction,” and any psychiatric symptoms from mental health issues would have to be treated and resolved.

Some individuals will be allowed to maintain their prescriptions while they promptly receive the required assessments.

Seems eminently sensible to me. But people don’t like the clock to be turned back when they’ve grown accustomed to easy access.

The following is telling; the person being interviewed is exactly the sort of person who would not have been treated medically in the big bad olden days of just a decade or so ago:

Bridgman [aged 23], who uses she/they pronouns, is autistic and has depression.

An increasing number of transitioners are autistic, and that is a especially worrisome co-morbidity that should call the person’s trans treatment into question and at least slow things down. But it doesn’t these days.

A 2020 study from natural sciences journal Nature Communications estimated that transgender and gender-diverse people, or those whose gender expressions do not conform to gender norms, are 3-6 times more likely to be autistic compared to cisgender people. They were also more likely to have other developmental and psychiatric conditions, including depression.

“They know a lot of us are autistic, and it’s part of their strategy to paint us as unstable — that we can’t be trusted to make our own medical decisions,” Cay said.

When last I checked, most people don’t make their own medical decisions, not in the sense of diagnosing themselves and demanding a certain remedy. They are evaluated by physicians or other health professionals, and sometimes given choices among several treatment approaches. They also always have the right to refuse medical treatment. But they don’t have the right to demand a certain medical treatment. But the trans community has become accustomed to being able to do exactly that, and to have the medical community be totally compliant with those demands.

More:

At least 13 states have enacted laws restricting or banning gender-affirming care for minors. Bills await action from governors in Montana, North Dakota and neighboring Kansas, and nearly two dozen other states are considering legislation to restrict or ban care.

The Missouri law, however, is the only one that attempts to put limits in place on adults.

This is the sort of rhetoric trans activists are using:

“This is a nuclear bomb on trans people in Missouri. Its effects will be felt for years if it goes into effect,” activist Erin Reed wrote on Twitter.

More than 3 million people viewed Reed’s tweet that reported: “Missouri AG just essentially banned gender-affirming care for most trans adults via emergency rule.”…

In a Tweet, the Human Rights Campaign said, “This isn’t just an overreach of authority—it’s an outright attempt to endanger and ultimately erase transgender people statewide.”

Nuclear bomb. Erase. It’s the language of the killing fields.

Posted in Health, Law, Men and women; marriage and divorce and sex, Therapy | Tagged transgender treatment | 77 Replies

Kash Patel says the leaker couldn’t have had legal access

The New Neo Posted on April 17, 2023 by neoApril 17, 2023

Here’s the story from Patel, who [CORRECTION: was a deputy under Richard Grenell), former Director of National Intelligence:

Patel said, first, the suspected leaker, Jack Teixeira, would not have had access to the information without someone within the Department of Defense (DOD) or the intelligence community giving it to him, providing it to him, or telling him it should be put out there. “It’s just not possible,” he said…

“Ninety-nine percent of people who have a Top Secret/SCI clearance don’t have access to this information. And me, as the former deputy DNI and chief of staff of the DOD and publisher of the [Presidential Daily Brief], with the highest security classification, knows that, literally, there is not a lot of people in the U.S. that have access to this kind of intel. It’s done for a reason. So this doesn’t happen.”

“The amount of intelligence they got…Somebody’s giving them that type of documentation…

“I think he’s definitely working with other people in DOD or the intel space to get this information out.”

Make of it what you will. But the amount of access this low-level guy would had to have had in order to get these particular documents is vast.

Posted in Law, Military | 40 Replies

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