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The New Neo

A blog about political change, among other things

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Triplets separated at birth

The New Neo Posted on December 30, 2022 by neoDecember 30, 2022

Posted in Uncategorized | 16 Replies

Open thread 12/30/22

The New Neo Posted on December 30, 2022 by neoDecember 30, 2022

Posted in Uncategorized | 18 Replies

The Kari Lake election fraud verdict: Part II

The New Neo Posted on December 29, 2022 by neoDecember 29, 2022

[NOTE: I said that Part II would be about efforts in Arizona to make elections more secure even before the 2022 election. But I find I have a few more things to say first, and I’m saying them here in Part II. So the Arizona efforts are planned for Part III.]

In the first post in this series I said that election fraud is only redressed in very minor cases. The same is true for the correction of election irregularities. This sort of thing is the only scale on which new elections will sometimes be ordered:

On November 18, 2022, Screven County [Georgia] Commissioners Allison Willis and Mike Dixon, candidate for county commissioner in District 1 Tyler Thompson, Vicki T. Reddick, and Michael Lloyd Waters, filed a lawsuit against Elections Superintendent Debbie Brown, Elections Supervisor Hannah Derriso, and Commissioner Edwin Lovett. The five contended that the wrong ballots had been issued to at least two dozen voters in District 1, and that the incorrect ballots may have had an impact on the county commission race in that district that had a margin of just seven votes.

Note the differences between this case and Lake’s: in Georgia the stakes were low, in that the election was for county commissioner rather than governor of a state. The margin of victory was tiny (even the total number of ordinary ballots was tiny, around 700) and therefore it wasn’t too difficult to prove that the errors could have made a difference. But the basic error was a similar one: incorrect ballots. In the county commissioner race, however, the candidates weren’t even on some of the ballots (for around two dozen voters) because of a confusion about where the county lines were. There was no contention that this was done intentionally and apparently the court saw no need for proving intent. The plaintiffs were able to put a number of people on the stand who didn’t get the right ballot.

This is from the defense during the trial:

“Not voting in this election is not an illegal vote,” Rountree told the court. “What we have here is over 700 people who voted correctly. And those 700 people deserve to have their votes counted and if this election is deemed to be a ‘do over,’ all those people have to go do it again. When the people complaining had the chance to do it right the first time…they had lots of chances to get it right, they still got it wrong. Not intentionally, but they did.”

Karpf asked Rountree if it was his position that the burden is on the individual voter, not the registrar or the election officials, to make sure the ballots are correct and the information in the system is correct. Rountree replied ‘yes.

So the argument was that a do-over would somehow disenfranchise those who had originally voted, and that it is incumbent on the voter to know what should be on his or her ballot and complain if it’s lacking something. That’s an absurd argument and the court apparently rejected it, because a new election was ordered. But with such a small election, that was relatively easy to do. The judge used the following standard:

–If the number of illegal votes exceeds the margin of the election results, that is sufficient grounds to set aside the election; and
–If there are systemic irregularities in the elections process that are ‘sufficiently egregious’ to cast doubt on the result.

The definition of “illegal votes” was at issue, but the judge decided these were “illegal” enough to qualify. That second standard – systemic irregularities in the elections process sufficiently egregious to cast doubt on the result – would have been useful in the Kari Lake case. But these are two different states, and it most definitely was not used in the Arizona case.

Back to Arizona and Lake’s case, here are some quotes from Judge Thompson:

The burden of proof in an election contest is on the challenger…

As for the actions of elections officials themselves, this Court must presume the good faith of their official conduct as a matter of law…

Plaintiff has no free-standing right to challenge election results based upon what Plaintiff believes – rightly or wrongly – went awry on Election Day. She must, as a matter of law, prove a ground that the legislature has provided as a basis for challenging an election. See Henderson v. Carter, 34 Ariz. 528, 534-35 (1928) (“[O]ne who would contest an election assumes the burden of showing that his case falls within the terms of the statute providing for election contests. The remedy may not be extended to include cases not within the language or intent of the legislative act.”)

So if fraudsters are creative enough and go outside the bases for challenge established by the statute, it appears that no lawsuit could succeed. And election officials are presumed as a matter of law to be fair, which seems to me to be a case of “the law is an ass” if it presumes that.

Later on in his opinion, Judge Thompson mentions that any ballot misprinting problems had to be proven to be (a) intentional (b) committed by an “officer making or participating in a canvass” (c) intended to change the outcome of the election, and (d) that such problems actually changed that outcome. Note once again the difference between this standard and the one in the Georgia case. That’s how very high the bar was raised for Lake – to the stratosphere. As I wrote in part I, fulfilling these requirements would require the equivalent of a recording of the plotting or a confession from the perpetrators. Nothing short of that would do, despite the fact that there were indeed “systemic irregularities in the elections process sufficiently egregious to cast doubt on the result.”

Judge Thompson also stated that:

A court setting such a margin [17,000 votes] aside, as far as the Court is able to determine, has never been done in the history of the United States.

Probably true, since although a redo of an election has been ordered by courts at times, such as in the Georgia case, it has not been done in a statewide contest of such magnitude with a margin of that type. That has nothing to do with the merits of the case, of course, and seems to reward fraud that is more egregious rather than less. If you can commit a big enough fraud, the court will not redress it – or if you commit a big enough act of negligence (which is the kindest interpretation of what happened in Maricopa County) the court will not redress it.

So I’m not going to do a close review of the evidence presented in court, because whatever it was it was not going to be able to meet the requirements unless it was a confession or a record of the plotting itself. But just to take one example, from Judge Thompson on Maricopa County’s chain of custody issues:

In his closing, counsel for Plaintiff argues that it “does not make sense” that Maricopa County did not know how many ballots Maricopa County had received on election night. But, at Trial, it was not Maricopa County’s burden to establish that its process or procedure was reasonable, or that it had an accurate unofficial count on Election Night. Even if the County did bear that burden, failing to carry it would not be enough to set aside election returns.

So what then do the chain of custody rules, established to assure the security of the ballots and to prevent fraud, mean? If election officials fail to follow them even though they are required to do so, and there is no penalty and no remedy, that offers a great deal of motivation to disregard such rules. The requirements have no teeth if the rules can be flouted. The officials, who are presumed by the court to be fair, can do whatever they want short of simply refusing to count votes or throwing the ballots into the river and watching them carried away by the current.

Maybe they can even do that as long as there’s no proof of their intent.

[NOTE: Please also read this. An excerpt:

The standard [in the Lake case] should have been whether voters were disenfranchised, not all the additional hoops Thompson added. If inner city blacks had been disenfranchised, Thompson would not have added all those extra requirements, he would have made the law fit. Robert Gouveia, a rare attorney who isn’t afraid to speak up and who describes himself as watching prosecutors, judges and politicians, said the standard should have been whether there was voter suppression.

Instead, Thompson said Lake had to show an extremely vague, high bar in order to prevail…

The article is well worth reading, but this part particularly interested me because I had not previously realized it:

Compounding the problem, hardly any attorneys dare speak up about this, since they risk being targeted and disbarred. So they’re not writing about it or going on talk shows, and the best of the bunch have already been targeted so they’ve either already been disbarred or have to lie low. Nor are they taking on representation, leaving candidates like Lake to rely upon non-election attorneys. When the Cochise County Supervisors gutsily called for a hand count, they could find no attorney who dared represent them.

That makes sense. We already know that in many law schools, law professors and other lawyers are targeted for destruction if they defend the “wrong” people – in other words, if they stick up for people on the right. Because bar associations generally have become highly leftist as well, the risk is there. It is extremely sobering.

The same author wrote this:

The problem is no attorneys or judges licensed by state bars dare to get involved since they’re likely to get disbarred; the left has so much control over state bars. One of the only election attorneys in Arizona who has the guts to get involved in these issues has been under investigation by the state bar for almost two years. The Arizona State Bar is one of the most vicious bars in the country targeting conservative attorneys. This is why the left repeatedly claims there has been no “evidence” of voter fraud in court cases.

I also suggest reading this piece by the same author, describing how attorneys who take election fraud cases are targeted. This is very important stuff, and I think many people on the right are unaware of it and certainly unaware of its scope.]

Posted in Election 2022, Law | 26 Replies

Republicans pounce on the poor beleaguered FBI

The New Neo Posted on December 29, 2022 by neoDecember 29, 2022

The GOP is on the warpath, and the victim is the FBI.

Why are the Republicans doing this to those agency innocents, fighting for truth, justice, and the American Way? It’s because of Trump, of course:

The attacks on [FBI agent] Piro [mounted by former FBI agents who had been placed on leave], and his angry rebuttal of them, are emblematic of a toxic dynamic that is increasingly central to Republican Party politics. Trump’s supporters — among them, Republicans poised to take over the House next month — have seized on the letter’s accusations and stepped up their assaults on the FBI, seeking to undermine the bureau just as it has assumed the lead in an array of investigations of Trump.

Just as it has assumed the lead. As though it hasn’t had the lead in the persecution of Trump – beginning with the attempted coup involved in the Russiagate lies – for about six years.

You cannot make this stuff up – but The New York Times can.

More:

Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, who will be the Judiciary Committee’s chair next month, has pledged to investigate what he describes as the politicization of the FBI as well as that of the Justice Department. In a taste of what is to come, the committee’s Republican staff released a 1,000-page report last month that asserted that the FBI hierarchy “spied on President Trump’s campaign and ridiculed conservative Americans” and that the “rot within the FBI festers in and proceeds from Washington.’’

What he describes as and what they “asserted.” The implication is that there isn’t necessarily any reality to such charges. Of course, the Times has assiduously avoided covering the truth of assertions like that, which means that a great many of its readers will swallow the idea that what the House is about to do is pure venom and vengeance, motivated by politics and unwarranted by the outrageous facts of what the FBI actually has done.

Also:

The report further accused the agency of “helping Big Tech to censor Americans’ political speech” — a claim that misrepresented the way the FBI has sought for years to curb online disinformation, especially when it comes from foreign actors. Long before the House report or the letter to Wray were released, Trump and his allies in Congress and the news media were already targeting federal law enforcement officers and demonizing those who scrutinized the former president.

Again, if you lie to your readers for so many years, purposely fail to cover things like the Twitter files, and if you’ve been aided and abetted by the rest of the leftist MSM in those endeavors, then your readers will have built an edifice of lies based on your reportage and everything you’re saying now makes perfect sense to them.

Trump and his supporters have gone after the bureau for its role in investigating his campaign’s ties to Russia; for purportedly failing to investigate issues surrounding Hunter Biden’s laptop; and for using informants to infiltrate a group of militiamen charged in a plot to kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan.

Somehow the FBI is a victim of “Trump and his supporters.” The coup-like abomination of Russiagate becomes the FBI’s “role in investigating Trump’s campaign ties to Russia.” The FBI’s Hunter laptop coverup and the lies told that it was somehow Russian disinformation when the FBI knew it was real – all of which was designed to hide the truth and to elect Joe Biden – becomes the vague and generalized “purportedly failing to investigate issues surrounding Hunter Biden’s laptop.” And the FBI’s entrapment and leadership in the FBI-devised and FBI-encouraged plot against Whitmer – so very useful because the revelation of this “right-wing extremist plot” in October of 2020 one month prior to the election could also help influence Trump’s defeat – becomes a meaningless and self-serving criticism by the GOP of the FBI’s mere use of informants to catch a bunch of vicious criminals intent on harming the duly elected state governor.

[NOTE: The link is to an article at the Seattle Times, but it’s a reprint of a piece that first appeared in the NY Times.]

Posted in Law, Liberals and conservatives; left and right, Liberty, Press | Tagged FBI | 21 Replies

Roundup

The New Neo Posted on December 29, 2022 by neoDecember 29, 2022

(1) Do we hear cries of “Biden is a xenophobic racist” from the left? No? Isn’t that odd.

(2) Chaya Raichik, aka Libs of Tik Tok, is a brave woman.

(3) It sounds as though Pope Benedict isn’t long for this world.

(4) Another suspicious death of a Putin critic. See this for some background.

(5) Is our solar system unique? Maybe.

(6) California legalized the cannabis industry, and then proceeded to make the regulations so onerous that it’s squeezing out farmers trying to comply and allowing the illegal growers to flourish.

Posted in Uncategorized | 15 Replies

Open thread 12/29/22

The New Neo Posted on December 29, 2022 by neoDecember 29, 2022

Posted in Uncategorized | 25 Replies

Onward

The New Neo Posted on December 28, 2022 by neoDecember 28, 2022

Although today I had hoped to publish Part II of my series on the Kari Lake election fraud trial, I’m planning it for tomorrow instead. I got a later-than-usual start today because I was dealing with some health issues involving a friend. There’s been a lot more of that sort of thing going on lately, because I have quite a few good fiends who’ve been ill. I know it’s to be expected as we get older, but it’s still hard.

Because I seem to have an older readership, many of you might be facing the same sort of thing. There’s also something about the holidays and the coming of the new year that brings on these sorts of reflections about the gallop of time.

Here’s a poem to ponder, by Edna St. Vincent Millay:

DIRGE WITHOUT MUSIC

I am not resigned to the shutting away of loving hearts in the hard ground.
So it is, and so it will be, for so it has been, time out of mind:
Into the darkness they go, the wise and the lovely. Crowned
With lilies and with laurel they go; but I am not resigned.

Lovers and thinkers, into the earth with you.
Be one with the dull, the indiscriminate dust.
A fragment of what you felt, of what you knew,
A formula, a phrase remains, — but the best is lost.

The answers quick and keen, the honest look, the laughter, the love, —
They are gone. They are gone to feed the roses. Elegant and curled
Is the blossom. Fragrant is the blossom. I know. But I do not approve.
More precious was the light in your eyes than all the roses in the world.

Down, down, down into the darkness of the grave
Gently they go, the beautiful, the tender, the kind;
Quietly they go, the intelligent, the witty, the brave.
I know. But I do not approve. And I am not resigned.

And another one, this time from one of my favorite poets ever, Gerard Manley Hopkins. He was a Jesuit priest whose poetry was basically unknown during his lifetime. This poem is apparently about a real person Hopkins served while a curate (and a farrier is a horseshoe-maker and fitter):

FELIX RANDAL
by Gerard Manley Hopkins

Felix Randal the farrier, O is he dead then? my duty all ended,
Who have watched his mould of man, big-boned and hardy-handsome
Pining, pining, till time when reason rambled in it, and some
Fatal four disorders, fleshed there, all contended?

Sickness broke him. Impatient, he cursed at first, but mended
Being anointed and all; though a heavenlier heart began some
Months earlier, since I had our sweet reprieve and ransom
Tendered to him. Ah well, God rest him all road ever he offended!

This seeing the sick endears them to us, us too it endears.
My tongue had taught thee comfort, touch had quenched thy tears,
Thy tears that touched my heart, child, Felix, poor Felix Randal;

How far from then forethought of, all thy more boisterous years,
When thou at the random grim forge, powerful amidst peers,
Didst fettle for the great grey drayhorse his bright and battering sandal!

Posted in Getting philosophical: life, love, the universe, Health, Me, myself, and I, Poetry | 34 Replies

Drug overdose death rate rises since pandemic

The New Neo Posted on December 28, 2022 by neoDecember 28, 2022

This is no surprise whatsoever:

America has seen a spike in overdose deaths since the pandemic, when drug overdose deaths rose more than 14% from 2020 to 2021.

The biggest increase, perhaps surprisingly, came from adults aged 65 and over, but rates for adults 35-44 remain highest. As synthetic opioids like fentanyl continue to displace heroin, overdose deaths have increased.

Seems to me that the over-65 crowd has been especially hard-hit by the pandemic, because they’re even more vulnerable to isolation and loneliness, which has been exacerbated by lockdowns and social distancing. But if you look at Figure 2 from the CDC report, actual rates for the over-65 group remain quite low – in fact, lowest of all the groups listed (which start at age 15-24).

More:

The data, released by the CDC, also show the rate of overdose deaths increased slightly faster for women than for men, though the rate for men remains more than twice as high as for women.

And it’s not just opioids, it’s also cocaine and “psychostimulants with abuse potential.” Amphetamines?

And that 14% rise is an age-adjusted rate rise. The increase are pretty staggering, and remember these are rates and not just connected with a rise in population:

Among the total population, the age-adjusted rate of drug overdose deaths increased from 6.8 in 2001 to 11.5 in 2006, was stable from 2006 through 2013, then increased from 13.8 in 2013 to 32.4 in 2021; from 2020 through 2021, the rate increased 14%, from 28.3 to 32.4.

Here’s a chart from the CDC. You can see that the slope of the line sharply increases since 2019:

Going to the CDC link, here’s a chart by race:

I find it interesting that the charts there do not include racial breakdowns by age and sex, although they could because the CDC has the data. My guess is that the rate for young-to-middle-aged white men has shot up more than for any other group, but I don’t know.

Posted in Health | 12 Replies

Democrats are horrified by the lies of George Santos and demand that he resign

The New Neo Posted on December 28, 2022 by neoDecember 28, 2022

After all, Republican lies are SO much worse than Democrat lies (which don’t exist).

This is particularly hypocritical, in light of Joe Biden and family:

Another New York Democrat, Rep. Ritchie Torres, urged the House Ethics Committee to probe the Republican’s fundraising on the campaign trail, saying the “complete fabrication” of his background could signal other issues.

“George Santos admits his life story is a complete fabrication. His pitiful confession should not distract us from concerns about possible criminality and corruption. The Ethics Committee MUST investigate how he made his money. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire,” Ritchie said.

I have to say that Santos is indeed quite the fabulist, which is not the same as being fabulous:

“I am not a criminal,” Santos said at one point during his exclusive interview. “This [controversy] will not deter me from having good legislative success. I will be effective. I will be good.”

Santos’ professional biography was called into question earlier this month after the New York Times reported that he misrepresented a number of claims, including where he attended college and his alleged employment history with high-profile Wall Street firms.

“My sins here are embellishing my resume. I’m sorry,” Santos said Monday.

You have to read the article to comprehend the extent of Santos lies. They involved just about everything the guy said – including that he was Jewish when he is Catholic, that he is a college graduate although he’s not, and on and on and on. His answers sound like a Saturday Night Live sketch, but unfortunately these are the excuses he’s actually made. Here’s my personal favorite:

“I never claimed to be Jewish,” Santos said. “I am Catholic. Because I learned my maternal family had a Jewish background I said I was ‘Jew-ish.’”

But as Don Surber says, in this day and age:

After Fetterman, all that matters is if the candidate is an R or a D because that is all that matters. That is how Democrats play it. That is how conservatives should play it. What makes us any better than Democrats? The high road leads to Loserville…

If we can live with the lies that Biden’s wife was killed by a drunk driver (he was sober and she ran a stop sign), that his son Beau died in Iraq (he had cancer), and that Biden knew nothing about Hunter collecting bribes, then we can live with the fibs that Santos used. If Democrats can embellish their life stories, so can he.

The real threat to this nation are not the resume liars in Congress but the perjurers at the FBI, CIA and the bowels of the bureaucracy. The FBI spied on Trump at the behest of Obama. As long as that crime goes unchallenged, anything goes…

Democrats love to try and pick off people they see as the weak ones…[Santos] may be a lying sack of pus but by golly, he is our lying sack of pus and if Democrats can stand by their liars, Fetterman, and that wife-beater Warnock, then darn it, I stand by him.

Sadly, that’s what it’s down to.

I wonder if Santos is also lying about being a Republican, though…

Posted in Election 2022, Liberals and conservatives; left and right | 38 Replies

Open thread 12/28/22

The New Neo Posted on December 28, 2022 by neoDecember 28, 2022

Posted in Uncategorized | 17 Replies

The Kari Lake election fraud verdict: Part I

The New Neo Posted on December 27, 2022 by neoDecember 27, 2022

[NOTE: It turns out I have more to say on this topic than I originally anticipated, so this will be a two-parter.]

Lake’s loss of her election fraud suit was a foregone conclusion. And yet the court is closing the barn door after the horses have escaped, because you can’t force people to trust elections by shrieking, “You must trust us!” Trust must be earned, and once lost it must be regained or it continues to be lost.

I have been consistent in saying that election fraud must be prevented because courts will not redress it after the fact except in very minor cases such as a person submitting two ballots instead of one. The Kari Lake trial is a good example, because the plaintiffs (Lake’s side) had unusually good evidence for mass fraud that may indeed have mattered in the outcome. And yet it was always clear that the evidence wasn’t enough for a verdict in her favor and could not possibly be enough. Here’s a discussion of the ruling against Lake [emphasis mine]:

Judge Peter A. Thompson ruled in favor of the defendants on all counts on December 24 2022. A copy of the opinion is here 4531 (maricopa.gov).

The court permitted two counts from the original ten in the Complaint to proceed to Trial: 1) the claim that ballot-on-demand (“BOD”) printer malfunctions experienced on Election Day were caused intentionally and that these malfunctions resulted in a changed outcome (Complaint Count II); and 2) the claim that Maricopa County violated its own election procedures manual (“EPM”) as to chain of custody procedures in such a way as to result in a changed election outcome (Complaint Count IV).

After laying out the “clear and convincing” burden of proof Lake needed to carry, the court summarized and evaluated the witnesses and evidence Lake presented. The court looked to Arizona case law going back to 1898, before we became a state in 1912, for the proposition “it is . . . unwise to lay down any rule by which the certainty and accuracy of an election may be jeopardized by the reliance upon any proof affecting such results that is not of the most clear and conclusive character.”

I submit that, realistically, that standard cannot be met. I also submit that the standard’s existence is understandable. It would be enormously chaotic if every suspicion of election fraud – even a strong suspicion that many people share – could overturn any election. Nothing would be certain, every election that wasn’t a landslide (and even some of those) would be challenged, the remedies might have to be to repeat elections over and over, and might result in a rapidly ever-changing succession of public officials none of whom were trusted or respected. It would be a nightmare.

But it’s another kind of nightmare to see obviously suspect elections, exacerbated by the omnipresence of computers and the prevalence of mail-in voting (especially in states where everyone on the obviously-flawed voter rolls is mailed a ballot whether requested or not, and once ballots are taken from envelopes there’s no saying where those ballots actually originated), with no redress in the courts. The frustration and distrust builds and builds and builds in the losers and it’s not even just limited to them.

In a case such as Kari Lake’s, what sort of proof would be enough for the court? The only sort of thing I can imagine would be a set of emails or recordings in which those in charge of the machines are seen or heard while plotting to reprogram them in order to aid the left. Or a mass confession on the part of said officials. Short of that sort of thing, forget about it.

We have to be able to trust our elections. But the only way to foster trust or restore it is to have more safeguards in place at the outset against fraud. In the name of voter inclusion as they define it, Democrats seem determined to jettison even many of the elementary and obvious safeguards such as voter ID, and this effort raises the amount of suspicion that their goal is to enable fraud – which is easiest to perform in the populous blue counties they usually control (Maricopa County is a GOP-controlled anomaly, but the GOP there detests Trump supporters such as Lake). Calling people who see the evidence as strongly indicative that fraud occurred “election deniers” might actually work to demonize them in the eyes of others, but it does absolutely nothing to increase the trust that is so necessary to a functioning democracy or a functioning republic. And we have most definitely lost that trust.

I don’t see us getting it back anytime soon.

Whenever I write about this sort of topic, many commenters write to say that the GOP doesn’t care and has made little effort to fix things. I often see statements like that all over the right side of the blogosphere. But it’s not the case; there have been many efforts, and I’ve documented some of them in many posts and comments of my own. I want to call your attention to this post as well as this one. In both of those posts I describe only a fraction of those efforts and why they have mostly failed unless a state is already quite Republican/conservative to begin with.

I strongly suggest you take a look at those posts if you haven’t already. And no, my motive isn’t to defend the GOP. It’s to inject more reality into the discussion. Has the GOP left no stone unturned? I very much doubt it. But they’ve done quite a bit and the deck is stacked against them. This is the last paragraph of that second post of mine that I linked, and I’ll repeat it for emphasis:

It’s instructive to do some basic research and discover what actually was tried, and what failed, and why, and what the obstacles are that need to somehow be overcome. But the left feeds on ignorance – not only of its own voters, but of some GOP voters as well.

[NOTE: Part II will be specifically about the efforts that were made to tighten voting security in Arizona prior to this election, and why so many of them failed.]

Posted in Election 2022, Law | Tagged Maricopa Arizona | 71 Replies

Reflections on the COVID Twitter files so far

The New Neo Posted on December 27, 2022 by neoDecember 27, 2022

Here’s the Twitter thread itself.

I don’t really need to reinvent the wheel and do a blow-by-blow analysis. I’ll just link to this, this, and this.

From the latter:

In its pathetic attempt to meet the Biden administration’s demands while meekly attempting to protect free speech on the platform, Twitter made three significant mistakes: 1) Using bots, 2) Relying on foreign contractors as content moderators, and 3) Allowing biased executives to prune the decision trees to determine the fate of specific tweets.

This meant many essential voices in the covid debate, which turned out to be correct, were silenced at critical times.

Thing is, it was obvious that this was happening. Anyone who looked could see it. I’m not a Twitter user, but there was plenty of discussion on the right side of the blogosphere and in other media on the right of how alternative points of view were being silenced.

I think the only really new evidence in this first batch of Twitter files on COVID is the extent of government involvement in the censorship, but even that could have been assumed. Early on, the government point of view became the only allowed point of view. I noticed it mostly on YouTube because I vist that site far more than I go to Twitter, and huge disclaimers appeared there attached to any video that even dared to tentatively whisper a thought contradicting the official government line, plus YouTube was “suggesting” tons of videos to me that parroted that government line and only that government line.

And yet the problems with the government line were also obvious from the start. It was easy to see, and I wrote about it early on. For example, here’s a post of mine from March 17, 2020, not long after the entire COVID business began. In it, I ask a question that would later have gotten me banned from Twitter had I been active there:

So here’s my question for all you epidemiologists and infectious disease experts out there…

Wouldn’t it be better to have only high-risk people stay home? People over 60 and those with pre-existing conditions? That way, if all those at low risk kept mingling, a lot of them would get a mild flu and herd immunity will be achieved fairly quickly, to the benefit of all, without overwhelming the health care system…

I just don’t see the end game for the current mitigation strategies. Wouldn’t we still get an overwhelmed health care system when everyone emerges?…

I was looking at a spate of recent articles on how Philadelphia and St. Louis handled the flu differently in 1918, with Philadelphia holding a big war bond parade despite the fact that the flu was beginning to make inroads in the city, and St. Louis canceling public gatherings (see this for just one example). The Philadelphia death rate soared and that of St. Louis did not.

However, most of the articles don’t mention this depressing fact:

“According to a 2007 analysis of Spanish flu death records, the peak mortality rate in St. Louis was only one-eighth of Philadelphia’s death rate at its worst. That’s not to say that St. Louis survived the epidemic unharmed. Dehner says the midwestern city was hit particularly hard by the third wave of the Spanish flu which returned in the late winter and spring of 1919.”

So, St. Louis did flatten its curve. But the deaths stretched out longer there.

And this apparently was a common occurrence in many cities…

The lockdown continuation already didn’t make sense, and that was obvious to anyone who had crunched the original COVID numbers from the Diamond Princess (I had) and looked at history from 100 years earlier (I had). I’m not saying this to brag, I’m saying it because it was easy to see rather than difficult. The fact that the authorities didn’t seem to see it – or refused to see it, or pretended not to see it – was obvious as well, and suspect. They were either incompetent (“fools”) or deceiving us (“knaves”) or both.

Why were they doing this? Well, one reason was also obvious pretty early on. Here’s a post of mine from April 27, 2020, entitled “Fear is an opportunity for tyranny”:

One of the many lessons of the COVID-19 response is how easily public officials embrace tyranny, and how many people accept it because of fear…

I didn’t like the initial 2-week shutdown, but I thought I understood the reasons – flatten the curve and keep the health care system from being totally overwhelmed – and I knew it would buy us time to learn more about the illness.

Mission accomplished. It’s been far more than two weeks, and the damage from the shutdown itself has gotten to the point that it becomes crystal clear it needs to be removed. The benefits have been less clear, too. There doesn’t seem to be much evidence that shutdowns mattered all that much in the curve of the COVID-19 toll in various states and various countries. We understand more than we did, but although we don’t understand enough, we have to take a few leaps because one thing we do understand (and was clear from the start, actually) is that the shutdown itself is causing tremendous damage. And that damage is not limited to economics; it involves mental and physical health as well.

That’s how soon it was obvious. The rest is just the details.

I’ll close this post with a description of some thoughts of Thomas Sowell’s from his very fine book The Vision of the Anointed:

Sowell argues that American thought is dominated by a “prevailing vision” which seals itself off from any empirical evidence that is inconsistent with that vision.

–the prevailing social vision is dangerously close to sealing itself off from any discordant feedback from reality.
–it is so necessary to believe in a particular vision that evidence of its incorrectness is ignored, suppressed, or discredited
–empirical evidence is neither sought beforehand nor consulted after a policy has been instituted. Facts may be marshalled for a position already taken, but that is very different from systematically testing opposing theories by evidence.

The book was written in 1996 and was the very first book of Sowell’s I ever read, probably around 2004. So these trends were already quite clear back then and even far earlier, with the Soviets. And what he describes is even more than a vision – it’s also a relentless drive for power not just to implement that vision but also for power’s sake itself.

Posted in Health, Liberty | Tagged COVID-19, Thomas Sowell | 18 Replies

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