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A blog about political change, among other things

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The right is in a bind

The New Neo Posted on April 6, 2023 by neoApril 6, 2023

Commenter “Turtler” writes:

The End of America primarily isn’t happening because of Trump, but in spite of him. Moreover, his ability to “fade into the background” is limited not just by his ego (though there is plenty of that) but by a left wing propaganda machine that is simultaneously addicted to propping him up as a target and wants to utterly, publicly destroy him.

Trump emerged as a viable political figure because of the previous actions of the left since it’s been in power. After all, Trump had been talking about maybe running for office since the 1980s, but he correctly understood that the time was finally ripe for a run in 2016. One of the main reasons he was able to win that year is that the left didn’t have their full apparatus in place, probably because they underestimated his strength and the public’s dislike for their own favored candidate, Hillary Clinton.

They did not make that error in 2020, and they will not make it in 2024 no matter who runs. People who say that the destructive, manipulative, perhaps fraudulent, and “lawfare”-heavy tools of the left will be mounted against anyone who runs on the GOP ticket are correct.

That said, Trump has a lot of baggage that make him an especially rich target. He also has a lot of plusses along with his minuses. My opinion is that he probably is a worse candidate than DeSantis would be, but I’ve been wrong before and I might be wrong again.

That’s the problem – and it’s not just my problem. The 2024 election is, quite simply, impossible to predict no matter who runs on the GOP side. The tools of the left to prevent any candidate on the right from winning are many and varied; we cannot pretend otherwise. But another thing that is crystal clear is that the conflict on the right between people who have turned away from Trump (or never supported him in the first place) and those who think he must be the nominee is an old one that represents a basic split in the party that long predated Trump. Trump is not really the issue, but he is the lightning rod.

The left knows this, and exploits it.

Posted in Election 2024, Politics, Trump | 52 Replies

Open thread 4/6/23

The New Neo Posted on April 6, 2023 by neoApril 6, 2023

Posted in Uncategorized | 24 Replies

On the Trump indictment

The New Neo Posted on April 5, 2023 by neoApril 5, 2023

Apparently there’s no there there.

Which may not matter. Nevertheless the indictment is exceptionally weak, even weaker than expected – which is saying something.

And it’s not just people on the right who are unimpressed by it:

BREAKING: CNN calls Trump indictment “underwhelming.”

You know you’ve lost when you lose CNN.pic.twitter.com/uc02V31yHT

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 4, 2023

After reading DA Bragg’s indictment of Trump and accompanying statement of facts, I’m stunned any prosecutor would move forward with this. It’s even flimsier than we were led to believe. Thirty-four stacked counts, bootstrapped to an unstated crime, to manufacture felony charges.

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) April 4, 2023

And even this Vox writer is not what you’d call enthusiastic about the legal basis for the case:

Bragg, in other words, has built one of the most controversial and high-profile criminal cases in American history upon the most uncertain of foundations. And that foundation could crumble into dust if the courts reject his legal arguments on a genuinely ambiguous question of law.

What’s more:

…[S]omeone accused of falsifying business records may be charged with a felony if their “intent to defraud includes an intent to commit another crime or to aid or conceal the commission thereof.”

In a vague statement made after Trump’s arraignment, Bragg claims the concealed records scheme “violated New York election law, which makes it a crime to conspire to promote a candidacy by unlawful means.” But this legal theory is not mentioned at all in the indictment or the accompanying statement of facts.

That leaves the federal campaign finance violation that led to Cohen’s guilty plea.

But it is far from clear that a New York state prosecutor may charge Trump with a felony because he tried to cover up a federal, as opposed to a state, crime.

Then there’s the statute of limitations problem:

There’s also one more twist here. The statute of limitations for the felony version of the false records crime is five years, while the statute of limitations for the misdemeanor version is only two years. Trump’s final payment to Cohen occurred in December 2017, which was more than five years ago.

That said, New York law sometimes allows the clock to be stopped on these statutes of limitations when the defendant was out of the state, and Trump spent four years living in the White House before relocating to Florida.

As I said, though, none of this actual legal stuff may end up mattering in the end. It’s Manhattan-town, Jake.

Alan Dershowitz is extremely concerned, and I most definitely share that concern. However, he seems to think Bragg decided to do this on his own in response to public pressure. I don’t think that’s it at all; I think that this was a decision by a group of higher-ups in the party:

Posted in Law, Trump | 62 Replies

Chicago voters must think the city is doing just fine…

The New Neo Posted on April 5, 2023 by neoApril 5, 2023

…because they elected another leftist to replace Lori Lightfoot. The winner is Brandon Johnson, a paid organizer for the Chicago Teachers Union. That’s where his financial support came from:

Just a few months ago, Johnson was a relative unknown, even to some voters in the West Side district he represents on the Cook County Board.

He owes his meteoric rise to the millions in contributions and thousands of campaign foot soldiers provided by the CTU and its affiliates, SEIU Locals 1 and 73, SEIU Heathcare, AFSCME Council 31 and United Working Families.

That support in money and people allowed Johnson to rise above his greatest vulnerabilities: his past support for the concept of defunding the police; fears that his $800 million tax plan would be job killer that would drive businesses out of Chicago; and Vallas’ complaint that Johnson has “never run anything” bigger than a classroom.

Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Even though I don’t see how viewpoints on abortion are relevant to a mayoral contest, that subject featured heavily in this election – as it did in the Wisconsin judicial election I wrote about earlier today (where it was more relevant). Here’s how the subject played out in the Chicago contest:

Despite an avalanche of business contributions that allowed him to outspend Johnson by a 2 to 1 margin, Vallas could not overcome his own statements — on talk radio, Facebook and Twitter — that left voters in this overwhelmingly Democratic city believing he is an anti-abortion, pro-voucher Republican.

Not even a slew of endorsements from high-profile Democrats featured in Vallas’ television commercials — including retired Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White, retired U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush and U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin — were enough to erase that perception.

According to the article, it was young voters who put Johnson over the top in a race that was relatively close.

Posted in Politics | 36 Replies

Kiss Wisconsin goodbye

The New Neo Posted on April 5, 2023 by neoApril 5, 2023

The Wisconsin Supreme Court is now controlled by the left. This is highly consequential:

The Democrat-backed candidate defeated her conservative opponent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election of Wisconsin Tuesday night, giving the left a majority over the body that determines critical issues such as abortion and election integrity.

Election integrity. Wisconsin.

It wasn’t even close:

In a contest that smashed spending records for state judicial elections, Daniel Kelly, a former justice of the state Supreme Court, lost to Janet Protasiewicz, a circuit court judge from Milwaukee County, by approximately 10 points.

Abortion concerns apparently featured strongly in the results, but it’s that “election integrity” part that probably will have more far-reaching effects. Here’s what was at stake:

…[The newly flipped liberal Court will strike down Wisconsin’s current voter ID law. Additionally, proof of residency – which is required to register to vote – will be nullified. Furthermore, unmanned drop boxes, which were deemed illegal by the current conservative Court, will become legal. There will be drop boxes on every street corner in Madison and Milwaukee.

If those things happen, I doubt Wisconsin will ever vote anything but Democrat again in a presidential election. Although the Wisconsin legislature is currently strongly Republican, that wouldn’t stop a liberal Supreme Court from rulings such as those described.

I hadn’t followed the race closely till now, but apparently the fight was exceptionally bitter, as evidenced by Kelly’s concession speech:

“I wish that in a circumstance like this, I would be able to concede to a worthy opponent,” he said at an event held at the Heidel House Hotel in Green Lake. “But I do not have a worthy opponent to which I can concede.”

Kelly called Protasiewicz’s campaign “deeply deceitful, dishonorable and despicable.”…

…My concern is the damage done to the institution of the courts,” Kelly said.

“My opponent is a serial liar. She’s disregarded judicial ethics; she’s demeaned the judiciary with her behavior. This is the future that we have to look forward to in Wisconsin.”

Adding: “I wish Wisconsin the best of luck, because I think it’s going to need it.”

Here’s some of the background to the accusations about lying.

Posted in Law, Liberals and conservatives; left and right | 28 Replies

Open thread 4/5/23

The New Neo Posted on April 5, 2023 by neoApril 4, 2023

Answers to questions you never asked:

Posted in Uncategorized | 41 Replies

Fashion tracks our decline

The New Neo Posted on April 4, 2023 by neoApril 4, 2023

This is very Weimar Republic:

The three words that best describe Hunter Schafer’s Vanity Fair Oscars party look? Less is more.

Dressed in a bias-cut white silk skirt, a single ivory-colored feather and — crucially — nothing else, Schafer was bound to raise a few eyebrows. Google searches for the actor and model skyrocketed on Sunday night as her look hit social media. On Twitter, pictures of Schafer immediately received tens of thousands of likes, while her own Instagram post has now been liked more than 2 million times.

Schafer is a trans woman – that is, a biological male who identifies as a woman. In this case, a lot of surgery was obviously involved, and although I don’t know the details, clearly this person had a good implant surgeon. But the abdomen and hips are giveaways, as they so often are.

But my larger point is: this is fashion? It is mere sensationalism, although that gets old quickly and therefore escalation is necessary. What’s next?

Schafer is merely the continuation of a trend I first noticed many years ago towards women who look like men with breasts – that is, very flat stomach with prominent abs, slim hips, and big bosom. It’s a type of female body that does exist in nature but not all that often. However, a biological male with breast implants can achieve the goal more easily.

If you scroll down in that article past the two photos of Schafer, you will find a runway model wearing the same “outfit.” In some ways it’s even more disturbing than the Schafer photos. The red-headed model is apparently a biological woman, but she looks as though she is quite literally starving. I don’t just mean thin; I mean starving, wasting away.

Tres chic.

Posted in Fashion and beauty, Men and women; marriage and divorce and sex | 30 Replies

Charge-stacking against Trump: those 34 counts

The New Neo Posted on April 4, 2023 by neoApril 4, 2023

Andrew C. McCarthy wrote this four days ago, but it continues to be relevant:

Thirty-four counts … in a case, again, that federal prosecutors decided wasn’t worth charging at all.

This is a classic abuse of power. Unscrupulous prosecutors will sometimes camouflage with quantity their case’s lack of quality.

When serious crimes have been committed, prosecutors do not need to run up the score with a high number of counts. A single charge, or a handful of them, provides the court with more than enough years of sentencing exposure. Once convicted, a serious criminal in that kind of case will be incarcerated for a very long time — even for life.

By contrast, if prosecutors do not have evidence of a serious crime, by loading up an indictment with dozens of charges, they can try to signal to the eventual trial jury that the defendant must be guilty of something. They hope the jurors will assume that, even if the evidence doesn’t seem strong, the government wouldn’t have alleged so many crimes unless the defendant was a truly diabolical criminal.

This is a significant enough due process abuse that, in federal law, the Justice Department has guidance directing prosecutors not to engage in it…

It’s called “charge-stacking.” Because the jury has to vote on each charge, the idea is that it is unlikely they will acquit on every single one. So it improves the odds immeasurably, plus the MSM can play it up to make the accused seem to be a terrible person. That’s their specialty, with Trump.

From Ace:

Bragg just made it clear that the “34 charges” are just repetitions of the same charge. He’s charging him for signing documents making the same representation.

He’s saying it’s illegal to make payments to a lawyer claiming they’re for legal services, if they’re really for some other purpose.

Interesting — so we can expect Hillary Clinton to be frog-marched into jail, huh?

Actually, there’s an ever-so-slight variation on the Stormy Daniels theme with Trump:

The court documents detail 11 checks, including nine signed directly by Trump, that were used to bury three different accounts that could be harmful to then-candidate Trump’s presidential campaign.

Beyond a $130,000 payment to Daniels, prosecutors lay out a larger deal with American Media, Inc. (AMI), the publisher of the National Enquirer, to buy damaging stories about Trump.

Payments were also made to a doorman, who received $30,000 from AMI for information alleging Trump fathered a child out of wedlock, as well as a $150,000 payment to former Playboy Playmate Karen McDougal.

I believe I’m correct in saying that doing that is not illegal. The alleged illegality has to do with the way the payments were labeled.

And this guy seems very amused by it all, as well he might be. Duping delight:

"Is the indictment of your predecessor politically divisive?"

BIDEN: *laughs* pic.twitter.com/YGDdBxE0iW

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) April 4, 2023

By the way, I haven’t seen reports of any gag order, so Trump’s speech will probably be delivered tonight as planned.

Posted in Law, Trump | 22 Replies

Trump’s arraignment: no one should be surprised by what is happening today

The New Neo Posted on April 4, 2023 by neoApril 4, 2023

Trump’s arrest and conviction for something has been a goal from the start. By “the start” I don’t mean from the day he declared his candidacy in 2015. At that point he was treated mostly as a joke and a loser by the left. Then later, they wanted him to be the nominee because they thought he didn’t have a chance to win in the general. But when he actually won they were flabbergasted and distraught – although “distraught” is way too mild a word for it. They were devastated, enraged, and then quickly energized. The self-described “resistance” took charge at that point, casting itself in the mold of the heroes of WWII who defied Hitler. And in that endeavor, anything and everything was allowed and encouraged.

That included the Beria approach: show me the man and I’ll show you the crime. To that end we saw two ridiculous impeachments, almost countless frame-ups, and now this: 34 counts related to falsifying records of the hush money paid to Stormy Daniels, and a not guilty plea. That means that the leaks from the grand jury – and leaks of grand jury testimony are felonies, although no one connected with Trump’s persecution/prosecution will ever be charged for that – were essentially correct in their description of what the charges would be.

This is a travesty and an extremely sad day. But it’s a day that has been telegraphed for a long long time. I don’t see why Trump wouldn’t be found guilty, considering that this is a political trial in a blue blue city. Justice is irrelevant in this sort of thing; getting Trump is what matters.

Here’s the text of some quick notes of a draft that I wrote on 12/5/22

Imprisonment of Trump and family
Dreyfus type stuff
His life is already utterly changed and unfree. He gave up a lot but they want him to give up everything, including his liberty. And they may just succeed.

As with so many of my drafts, I never fleshed it out and finished it. Now I’ve decided to leave it in that raw form just to show how obvious it was that this day would happen. And I don’t think they’re anywhere near finished with Trump, or with his children for that matter.

Sorry to be so pessimistic. As usual when I’m pessimistic, I hope I’m wrong.

Posted in Law, Liberty, Me, myself, and I, Trump | 27 Replies

Open thread 4/4/23

The New Neo Posted on April 4, 2023 by neoApril 4, 2023

Posted in Uncategorized | 37 Replies

Muzzling Trump

The New Neo Posted on April 3, 2023 by neoApril 3, 2023

Will this occur, or is it just a rumor?:

The gag order [on Trump] would carry penalties if broken, such as fines and possible jail time. It would essentially stop Trump from speaking about the case, which would include fundraising off of it. That would be a big damper on his current plan to fight back, which has revolved around stirring public outrage. It would also be a move that further interferes with the 2024 presidential race.

Trump currently has plans for a big speech after his arraignment:

Trump, 76, will speak from his Palm Beach home and resort at 8:15 p.m. Tuesday, his campaign said in an emailed statement.

The speech — Trump’s first since a grand jury voted to indict him last week — would follow his scheduled 2:15 p.m. arraignment in Manhattan Supreme Court.

But the address to his supporters could reveal very little about the case should the judge decide to impose a gag order on Trump during the hearing.

Legal experts have said such an order, which would silence the 2024 presidential hopeful, would not be unusual, noting they are fairly common in high-profile cases. A source close to Trump’s legal team, however, told The Post on Sunday his attorneys are not anticipating a gag order will be issued.

But there is nothing usual about a leading presidential candidate being charged with a crime and issued a gag order – at least, not in this country.

As I’ve written before, I think this indictment is designed to foster the ultimate goal of boosting Trump among his supporters and leading to his GOP nomination while simultaneously making those in the middle recoil from voting for him in the general. At the same time, it throws red meat to the left. Therefore those who planned it – and I don’t for a single moment think it was just Bragg, going rogue – consider it a potential plus in every way.

Posted in Election 2024, Law, Politics, Trump | 72 Replies

SSRIs and violence

The New Neo Posted on April 3, 2023 by neoApril 3, 2023

Every time there’s a school shooting or any sort of mass violence, the subject of SSRIs comes up from one commenter or another.

Sometimes people also bring up the subject of fatherlessness and mass shooters, which I wrote about at length in this post, the gist of which is that there is no connection although it’s popularly thought that there is.

Now, on to SSRIs. It is notoriously difficult to do research on whether SSRIs trigger more violence, have no effect, or help prevent violence, and if so in what populations. It’s a popular internet meme that they trigger violence, but the evidence is not at all clear that that is so, and as I said it’s very difficult to design a good study. One obvious reason is that such people are often at higher risk for violence in the first place, and drugs are not given randomly. There is almost certainly something already different about the people who get them and those who don’t.

This is one of the better-designed studies, and as you can see if you read it it’s very hard to tell what it all means, if anything. For example:

As is often the case, the authors of the study themselves are rather cautious. While obviously concerned that it is possible that SSRIs may actually cause violent behavior in a small minority of people, they fully recognize that other explanations are possible. These include the possibility that what is driving the violent behavior is medication undertreatment, based on the finding that the risk with violence was only found among individuals who were likely taking subtherapeutic doses. As reported by MedScape, one of the study authors, Seena Fazel, states: “Our own view is that some evidence suggests that it’s a bit more complicated than that, because we found a link with subtherapeutic doses of SSRIs, and that would suggest to us that it may be that it’s actually a lack of treatment [and] it could be residual symptoms that are driving this link.” At the same time, if antidepressants really worked wonders for young people, we should see that therapeutic SSRI usage was associated with a reduced risk of violent behavior, which it wasn’t.

A couple other factors also deserve mention. The idea of comparing periods on and off medication within the same individual is a clever design, because many individual factors that might be related to risk of violence, like one’s socioeconomic status or DNA, are held constant. However, because the period of medication use was not randomized (and couldn’t be), it introduces the very likely complicating issue that individuals were taking medications during times when they were feeling more depressed, anxious, and angry to start with, and thus at higher risk of acting violently. Finally, it is important to note that a statistically significant association certainly does not mean that most people taking antidepressants are out there hurting others. When taking SSRI medications, the conviction rate of violent crimes was at a 1.0% rate compared to 0.6% without medications.

There’s also this:

Our study encompassed nationwide data over a 15-year period. In this period, the homicide rate per 100,000 remained fairly constant, with a moderate decline in recent years, leading to an average of 160 homicide victims per year. The suicide rate decreased steadily from 10.26 (approximately 1,500 victims) in 1994 to 8.77 (approximately 1,400 victims) per 100,000 in 2008. The homicide–suicide rate remained relatively stable, averaging at 0.05 per 100,000 (varying from 4 to 14 victims per year, see Fig. 1). In the same period, the rate of total antidepressant use increased considerably, from 3,038.81 in 1994 to 5,650.58 per 100,000 in 2008. A similar increase was observed for the rate of SSRI use alone, which more than doubled from 1,482.25 in 1994 to 3,161.15 per 100,000 in 2008 as well as the rate of SSRI use including venlafaxine, with an increase of 1,486.81 in 1994 to 3,904.20 per 100,000 in 2008. Over the same period, the number of defined daily doses used rose from 59.6 million in 1994 to 245.3 million in 2008: a fourfold increase. This indicates that not only more people used antidepressants, but also that the mean duration or intensity of the treatment grew…

Rates of the use of SSRIs including venlafaxine were also found to be negatively associated with both homicide rates and suicide rates. No significant independent association was found between rates of SSRIs including venlafaxine and homicide–suicide.

Here’s an article about suicide and SSRIs for young people:

The 2004 study examined the clinical trial data that had been collected on two types of medications, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) and selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRI). The results of the study prompted the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to issue a black box warning, the most serious level of warning in prescription drug labeling, for the risk of suicides in children and adolescents being treated with antidepressants in 2004. The warning was extended to young adults ages 18 to 25 years in 2006.

The researchers in the current study performed a meta-analysis of 41 studies, reviewing the data on a total of 9,185 youths, adults, and geriatric patients who were treated with fluoxetine (Prozac is one common brand) and venlafaxine (Effexor) immediate (IR) and extended release (ER) preparations…

In all three age groups, treatment with fluoxetine and with venlafaxine IR and ER resulted in a statistically significant improvement in depressive symptoms when compared to treatment with placebo. The decline in depressive symptoms was also faster for patients treated with medication than control group patients. In the adult and geriatric patients who were treated with fluoxetine or venlafaxine, suicidal thoughts and behaviors decreased over time.

As the patients became less depressed, they had fewer suicidal thoughts and attempts. Although the youths who were treated with medication showed the same statistically significant decrease in depressive symptoms as the older populations, they did not show a decrease in suicidal ideation and actions.

“In kids, we don’t see a harmful effect, but we do see a disassociation between the beneficial effects on depression and the potential beneficial effect on suicide,” said the study’s lead author…

The newest analysis did not support the idea that there was an increased risk of suicide in children and adolescents taking fluoxetine, an SSRI. In explaining the difference in their findings, the researchers note that these original meta-analyses included fewer studies and the studies were of shorter term than the longitudinal data they analyzed.

There probably will be a number of readers here who say something like this: “It’s all lies promulgated to cover up the damage drug companies do and to preserve their profits.” You’re welcome to that point of view, and certainly during the COVID years the CDC and many other official entities have earned our distrust. But if you throw out all research, including older studies such as these, you are left with internet memes and paranoia. That’s not science, either. I believe that most of these studies are attempts at valid research on a subject that is inherently difficult to study, and that the bulk of the evidence indicates that SSRIs do not increase violent behavior.

Posted in Health, Science, Violence | 25 Replies

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