Trump is declared the winner in New Hampshire …
… with an estimated margin of 12% over Haley. That’s quite a bit of room in what amounted to a 2-way race, in a state in which many Democrats who had registered as “undeclared” probably voted in the GOP primary.
Haley isn’t polling very well in her home state of South Carolina, so I think this will be a short primary season with the equivalent of a Republican incumbent (Trump) and a Democrat incumbent (Biden), either or both of whom may somehow end up not being his party’s candidate when November rolls around.
The dumbing down of American education
Here’s an in-depth discussion.
The COVID lockdowns were a factor. But certainly not the only factor; “meritocracy” is now a dirty word in US education.
The learning loss debacle is the latest chapter in the decade-long decline in public schools. Achievement among black and Latino students on state tests was already dropping before COVID drove an exodus of families away from traditional public schools in search of a better education. Although by lowering standards and lifting the graduation rate districts have created the impression that they have bounced back, experts say that’s the wrong signal to send, creating complacency when urgency is needed.
It’s so much easier to lower standards – sometimes in the name of anti-racism – than to try to meet them. And it’s not as though schools weren’t given money to remedy this, but there was almost no effective oversight.
Why is the Biden administration pressing for a two-state solution?
Ah, well you might ask.
After all, as Paul Mirengoff writes:
Under any rational analysis, however, the events of October 7 conclusively demolish any claim that there’s a viable two-state solution.
Gaza was a de facto Palestinian state, though it was not officially recognized as one. Gaza had its own government — supported financially by the international community and militarily by Iran — and there was no Israeli presence in that territory.
Hamas ran the show and there’s no evidence that the Gazans, who elected Hamas years ago, were unhappy about this. In any case, Hamas’ rule was reality in this de facto state.
October 7 was the consequence of Gaza’s independence. Hamas, unconstrained, invaded Israel and committed the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. If Israel had maintained a presence in Gaza, as it has in the West Bank, Hamas could not have pulled off its butchery.
Can it be more obvious that a Palestinian state on the West Bank would leave Israel exposed to another October 7? I don’t see how.
And yet the Biden administration insists on it. Why?
Mirengoff lists several ideas: force of habit, lack of any other idea on what to do, and to please the Democrat anti-Israel base. I believe that all three are operating to a certain extent.
But there’s more. Calling for a two-state solution is virtue-signaling par excellence: showing oneself to be in favor of treating both sides the same even though that’s a total fiction, respecting the supposedly “brown” Palestinians who are by definition oppressed, placating the international community, believing that negotiations can solve any problem, not recognizing the existence of evil but blaming it on economic disadvantages and supposed persecution, and being against “escalation” by pariah Israel.
There’s another possibility: wishing Israel would just go away already and cease to exist. What a headache it is! A two-state solution would accomplish that goal while wrapping those who promote it in the cloak of kindly and evenhanded peace advocacy.
There’s also, of course, the possibility of sheer stupidity. Perhaps they actually believe their own fictions. Stranger things have happened. And after all, to give up the idea does leave a vacuum of sorts, which can only be filled by supporting a more ruthless war on the part of Israel. That is a harsh prospect that might be very difficult and depressing to accept.
Have I left anything out?
Roundup
(1) Terrible news: building collapse kills 21 IDF soldiers:
The forces removed buildings and infrastructure that served Hamas in an area approximately 600 m from the border, with the intention of allowing residents of the south to return to their homes. According to our information at the moment, at approximately 4:00 p.m., an antitank missile was fired at a tank guarding the force, and simultaneously an explosion collapsed two two-story buildings close to the force while most of the force was in or near them.
“The buildings apparently exploded due to charges that our forces had placed and were about to be blown up along with terrorist infrastructures in the area.
(2) SCOTUS rules to allow the feds to continue to cut away barbed wire that Texas has placed on the border, pending a court case on the matter. No written opinion was rendered, but the decision was 5-4, with Roberts and Barrett ruling with the liberals. If I understand this correctly, the issue is whether states have any rights in the matter of the US borders, or whether the federal government is totally in control.
(3) Here’s the latest in blood libels from an antisemitic cartoonist who used to work for the Telegraph until his 2021 firing, but commands top prices for his work. These themes not only are old, but they’ve been a near-constant especially in Europe. In 2019 I wrote this post on the subject, in which I feature a similar cartoon from 2003 that showed Sharon eating babies, as in the famous Goya work about Saturn devouring his son.
(4) Today is the NH primary, but DeSantis’ dropping out of the race has taken away much of its meaning. Now it’s just Trump and Haley, and Trump is reported to be way ahead. It really depends on turnout, but I think it’s safe to predict a Trump victory. In NH, registered Democrats can’t cross over, but since many people don’t register with a party even though they really reliably vote for that party, Democrats actually can and will cross over to vote for Haley.
(5) Hamas is reported to have refused an Israeli hostage deal:
The terrorist group Hamas has rejected a generous Israeli ceasefire offer in exchange for the release of remaining hostages, media reports say. Israel had offered “a two-month cease-fire in exchange for hostages, and a free passage out of Gaza for its leaders,” the Israeli news website Ynet reported Tuesday.
The Associated Press, the news outlet that broke the story, cited an Egyptian official saying, “Hamas rejected the proposal and is insisting that no more hostages will be released until Israel ends its offensive and withdraws from Gaza.” The Israeli government did not comment on the news reports.
I don’t know whether this is true; Israel hasn’t confirmed it. But if true, it is both depressing and unsurprising. Israel’s offer shows a softening of its position and a worrisome trend, whereas Hamas’ refusal shows that it thinks that it is in the driver’s seat because of all the hostages. That’s why it takes them.
Open thread 1/23/24
I can’t say he actually answered the question. But kind of interesting nonetheless:
Very informative video on the Middle East situation as a whole – plus, Hamas wants it all
Here’s the Jerusalem Center again, with another extremely informative discussion. Once again, these guys aren’t telegenic, and the accents can make it a bit hard to listen, but I’m impressed by their knowledge and perspective. This discussion is about the entire Middle East picture. I’ve cued it up to start where the guest speaker enters:
NOTE: By the way, Hamas tells Israel sure, we’ll give you your hostages back … as long as you cease fighting us and cease existing. From past experience, Hamas has always thought of the hostages it holds as giving it absolute power over Israel, although this time it hasn’t worked out that way so far. But Hamas knows that the world is against Israel and will excuse the worst and most malevolent actions on the part of Hamas and other Palestinians, having firmly established its neo-Marxist credentials as victims no matter what they do.
Blinken unveiled his grand plan for Middle East peace: a Palestinian state. Yes, that’s right: Hamas murdered 1,200 Israelis, many in unimaginably gruesome ways, with Palestinian civilians gleefully cheering them on, and Blinken wants them to end up being the ones who emerge the winners from this present conflict.
A Palestinian state would seem to be the last thing any sane person would recommend now after we have seen Gaza become a jihad terror statelet, but Blinken has not bothered to let the experience of history, much less the power of common sense, revise his preconceived notions. As far as he is concerned, the Palestinians are violent because they lack self-determination.Giving them self-determination (you know, like when they elected Hamas in Gaza) will therefore fix the problem. Never mind that they’ve turned down numerous quite generous offers to give them a state. Remember: the facts don’t matter in Washington.
Nor do they matter in Davos. And so Blinken said Wednesday that Israel could only attain “genuine security” if it allowed the Palestinians another base for jihad attacks in addition to Gaza, that is, a Palestinian state. He even had the audacity to present this tired, multiply failed, ill-conceived “solution” as a daring new idea that the Israelis needed to have the imagination and courage to seize upon.
One of the many, many, many reasons Biden (or his replacement) needs to be defeated in 2024.
A few more thoughts about DeSantis’ candidacy, withdrawal, and endorsement
It doesn’t surprise me that DeSantis endorsed Trump, because his policies were mostly in line with Trump’s – and better in some ways, such as COVID lockdowns. But when DeSantis challenged Trump as a younger, although less humorous and roguish version, he was lied about by Trump and Trump forces in order to make sure people didn’t notice the similarities.
This effort was immediately successful, something I noticed online. Almost instantaneously, enormous numbers of commenters would come here and elsewhere all around the right side of the blogosphere and on right media outlets spreading the anti-DeSantis word. It was spearheaded by various pro-Trump blogs, and I played whack-a-mole for a while against it: no, DeSantis hadn’t said this or that they were alleging he’d said. Yes, he really had made a strong statement about this or that they were alleging he hadn’t spoken about. And so on and so forth in that vein.
But very early in the game it became apparent that the combination of three things were coming together to make sure the DeSantis campaign would never get off the ground: (1) this aforementioned campaign of lies against him (2) the extreme loyalty of many Trump voters to Trump and no one else, which guaranteed close to 50% for Trump in all primaries; and (3) DeSantis’ own personality, which came across – especially with a brief look – as plodding rather than exciting or dynamic. He wasn’t “low energy Jeb,” not by a longshot – and certainly his record in Florida was very high-energy – but he personally came across as at least somewhat low-key.
And this just wasn’t going to do the trick when the very exciting Trump was around.
Trump was indeed “around,” but he never was around DeSantis, because Trump wisely never entered the debates. He didn’t need to, and he knew it. This meant that no one ever got a chance to match them up head-to-head, although it’s traditional.
And so DeSantis is out. I hope he tries again in 2028, because I think he’s excellent, and he’s young. But the question now is whether Trump can win the general. It depends on what happens between now and November – and that could be any number of things, including a black swan event that dictates that he be replaced (by his designated VP? By Haley? By DeSantis?). Trump is polling better right now than he was earlier in the campaign season, but the “rigging” of the election has barely begun, and the left will stop at nothing in order to stop him from holding office ever again. However, they also would have tried to destroy any replacement, including DeSantis. Would they have been successful? Perhaps – and DeSantis certainly wouldn’t have commanded the kind of loyalty of the base voters on the right that Trump has cemented.
In the end, I want the person nominated by the GOP to be someone who can win and who can fight. Both Trump and DeSantis would and will fight. I just don’t know whether either of them could have – or in Trump’s case, can – win in 2024.
Does anyone else hate patient portals like I do?
I know; I know. It’s so convenient to have your appointments and test results in one place and accessible. It’s so nice not to have all that paper. That’s the theory, and it’s probably even true.
But patient portals enable medical offices to “encourage” patients to use the portal for all questions and communications, and allows the office to basically spam those patients by sending cryptic alerts to go to the portal for some important message or other. One goes there – which usually involves 2-step verification that the patient didn’t ask for and a checkbox for it saying “skip this step next time” although the step is never, never ever, skipped – and what does one find? The message is usually something on the order of “Brush your teeth!” “Don’t forget to eat your vegetables!”
Thanks, pals.
And when I get a text on my phone that I have an appointment on such and such a day, it does’t say with whom. I have to look that up on my calendar. And then it’s go to the portal for some sort of pre-check-in, which involves a review of my basic medical history such as medications, which are mostly out of date and have to be removed from the list with reasons given. I’ve noticed that for the most part such removals don’t stick, and the medications keep stubbornly coming back on the list. And don’t get me started on the release forms and privacy forms that no one ever reads because that would take several hours and the assistance of several lawyers.
Meanwhile, it becomes more and more difficult to get to a human being on the phone.
I’m not complaining about one doctor or another doctor; this seems to be universal where I live and perhaps where you live, too.
Open thread 1/22/24
This isn’t the sort of topic Sabine Hossenfelder ordinarily concentrates on; her usual bailywick is theoretical physics and also music at times.
She always brings a dry humor and wit to her subject matter. This time that subject matter is something a lot more personal:
DeSantis drops out of the race and endorses Trump
I don’t usually post on Sundays unless there’s big news. This qualifies:
… Now over the past many months, Casey and I have traveled across the country to deliver a message of hope, that decline is a choice, and that we, in fact, can succeed again as a nation. Nobody worked harder. And we left it all out on the field.
Now following our second-place finish in Iowa, we have prayed and deliberated on the way forward. If there was anything I could do to produce a favorable outcome — more campaign stops, more interviews — I would do it. But I can’t ask our supporters to volunteer their time and donate their resources if we don’t have a clear path to victory. Accordingly, I am today suspending my campaign.
I am proud to have delivered on 100% of my promises and I will not stop now. It’s clear to me that a majority of Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance. They watched his presidency get stymied by relentless resistance and they see Democrats using lawfare to this day to attack him.
While I have had disagreements with Donald Trump, such as on the coronavirus pandemic and his elevation of Anthony Fauci, Trump is superior to the current incumbent, Joe Biden. That is clear.
I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee and I will honor that pledge. He has my endorsement because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear — a repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism — that Nikki Haley represents. The days of putting Americans last, of kowtowing to large corporations, of caving to woke ideology, are over.
DeSantis was my favored candidate right from the start. But not long into the primary season it became crystal clear that Trump would be winning the nomination. I think DeSantis was also running out of money, whereas Haley has a lot of it due in no small part to contributions from Democrat and Republican NeverTrumpers. She seems to be determined to stay in the race as the Trump alternative, but except for crossover votes she doesn’t stand a chance. I think that, even with crossover votes, she doesn’t stand a chance.
I would love for DeSantis to be Trump’s VP choice. But I very much doubt that will happen.
ADDENDUM: “rbj1” points out what I had forgotten: that DeSantis as VP would mean that Florida’s electoral votes could not be counted for a Trump/DeSantis ticket. That certainly wouldn’t be a good idea. How about DeSantis for Attorney General?
This 13-year-old ballet dancer …
… named Chloe Helimet has a lovely lyrical upper body for her age, and a calm presence. The variation she’s dancing is harder than it looks because the slow tempo requires so much control. Her feet are unusually flexible, which makes them extra-beautiful by today’s aesthetic standards. But such feet are often weaker than less flexible ones, and in my day people with that kind of foot used to wear large strong elastics to hold them back a tiny bit:
I’m not a fan of ballet competitions, which tend to emphasize technique and more technique. They have spread tremendously and taken hold over the last few decades, helping make dance into more of a sport and much less of an art.
But this girl is actually phenomenal, and she has fairly mature artistry as well. I discovered her again and realized it was the same girl as in the previous video – I recognized her feet. Her father was a major soloist for the San Francisco Ballet (now retired), and my guess is that he and his wife – whom I believe is also a dancer; both are from Estonia but have been in England and then the US for many decades – have been her coaches and perhaps teachers. I have never seen such wonderful port de bras (arms) by a dancer this young. Nor have I ever seen such a calm center in slow movements, or maturity of expression and lyricism. She is better than a great many adult soloists these days in terms of artistic expression, highly unusual because it usually develops late.
Here is her dad, who is an excellent dancer also: