I find some recent Ukraine moves of Trump’s potentially alarming. Are we looking at an example of Trump’s mutable opening negotiation positions, meant to make Putin think he’s with him all the way, but expected to change? Or is Trump really with Putin all the way? With Trump, you can’t tell until the fat lady has finished singing.
But he issued statements that seem so personally insulting to Zelensky that I think Trump may really be intending to shut him out of all the negotiations for the fate of his own country, and also to call for a new election in Ukraine:
… Secretary of State Marco Rubio [had] sat down with a Russian delegation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to start mapping out a path to peace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had made headlines in recent days over his ire at not being invited to participate in the Riyadh negotiations, saying:
“We were not invited to this Russian-American meeting in Saudi Arabia. It was a surprise for us. I think it was a surprise for many people,” Zelensky said …
[Trump said] “Well, [Ukaine has] had a seat for three years and a long time before that. This could have been settled very easily — just a half, a half-baked negotiator could have settled this years ago without the loss of much land …
“Well, we have a situation where we haven’t had elections in Ukraine, where we have martial law, essentially martial law in Ukraine, where the leader in Ukraine — I mean I hate to say it but he’s down at 4 percent approval rating — and where a country has been blown to smithereens. …
And, yeah, I would say that when they want a seat at the table, wouldn’t the people of Ukraine have to say, “It’s been a long time since we’ve had an election?”
Russia apparently wants to force a special election as part of a peace deal. And if Russia wants it, it’s not out of any concern for Ukraine, that’s for sure. Then again, we’ve had elections here in wartime.
So, what gives? My hope is that – as I’ve said before about many moves of Trump’s – this is just an opening bid made to soothe Putin enough to bring him to the table. And that Ukraine’s needs and protection will not be ignored.
There’s also this proposal of Trump’s as described by John Hinderaker. Again, I’m not sure what Trump’s actual goal is or what the fine print of any such agreement would be. Here’s an excerpt Hinderaker offers from the British Telegraph, which he characterizes as “one of Europe’s most pro-Trump papers”:
Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.
The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv. …
Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy.
More at the link. What’s it all about? It seems to be based on a draft of what the Telegraph calls a “pre-decisional contract.” Is that a wish list, or ironclad demands? Is it just some kind of trade agreement? Why does the author of the article, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, call it “reparations”? Whatever it is, it doesn’t seem to be that. Could this just be a proposal for the US to invest in Ukraine and get something back?
I don’t read the Telegraph often enough to say whether it’s actually “one of Europe’s most pro-Trump papers” – or what that actually might mean, since I doubt Europe has many pro-Trump papers. But I did look up the author’s other pieces about Trump, and he clearly detests the man. That doesn’t mean that his reporting is wrong on this issue, but it means that I’m withholding judgment on what’s going on here. Which I was planning to do anyway.
[ADDENDUM: I hadn’t seen this story yet when I wrote this post, but it’s more very disturbing stuff from Trump today. He has doubled down on the rage against Zelensky. He seems to have gone full Tucker Carlson on this, which has me very worried. On the other hand, all the caveats I put in the article still stand.
If this is really Trump’s position, it is an example – the only one I can think of so far – of deception on his part in his campaign promises, which weren’t exactly pro-Ukraine but which were much milder than what he’s saying now.]
[ADDENDUM II: I have put up a new post on the subject.]
NOTE: As soon as I read the name “Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,” that hypenated surname rang a big bell from my anthropology minor in college. And yes, his father was the famous anthropologist E. E. Evans-Pritchard, whose studies of the cattle-raising Nuer of Sudan were featured very heavily in my coursework. Alas, most of the minutiae of Nuer life is gone from my memory, but I do recall that cattle were everything to them.
