Let’s just say, for the sake of argument, that Andrew Bolt is right, and that we’ve already won in Iraq.
Or if that’s too utterly unbelievable for you, let’s just say, for the sake of argument, that the violence in Iraq continues to decline, civil order continues to improve, and it ends up being a viable and functioning country—and an ally—within the next couple of years.
In other words, what if the new counterinsurgency methods of General Petraeus really have reversed a situation that as recently as last spring looked exceedingly dire, and had many declaring it was already lost?
If so, these would be my questions:
If things turn out well in Iraq, will it finally put the ghost of Vietnam to rest?
If things turn out well in Iraq, will naysayers Reid and Pelosi and Edwards ever say they were wrong?
I have a strong feeling that the answer to both these questions is “no.” This is partly because the Vietnam War years were so searing and the scars so long-lasting, and partly because Vietnam has been so useful for the antiwar side to invoke in order to rally feeling against any subsequent war involving complexities, hardships, or errors of execution. In addition, the Iraq War itself has already caused so much division and anger that even victory will probably be defined as just not worth it by many of those opposed to the undertaking. It is also because admitting misjudgment is an exceedingly difficult thing—and that’s a phenomenon hardly limited to Democrats.
But if things do turn out well in Iraq then I, for one, will be deeply grateful that the Democrats lacked enough votes to achieve their goals of prematurely cutting off the surge and pulling out of that country. Of course, had they been able to do so, history would probably have said they were correct to do so because the Iraq War was manifestly unwinnable.
History isn’t really all that good at evaluating alternatives to what actually happens. Most of the time, it’s difficult enough to understand what did happen, much less to understand the ramifications of what did not. The latter seems to be a matter for the alternative history science fiction writers, not the historians.