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A blog about political change, among other things

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A win for Honduras

The New Neo Posted on November 30, 2009 by neoNovember 30, 2009

Honduras may get to choose its own leaders after all. The tag team of Obama and Chavez doesn’t seem to have been able to stop it from doing so, and Obama seems to have given up trying.

[ADDENDUM: Porfirio Lobos, Zelaya’s conservative opponent in the 2005 election, appears to have won. Unsurprisingly, Venezuela and other Leftist Latin American governments have refused to recognize the results. Back in September, President Obama said he would side with them by declaring the outcome of the election invalid even before it had occurred. Fortunately, something changed his mind, and the US now declares that the elections were “a necessary and important step forward.” ]

Posted in Latin America | 4 Replies

Climategate: it’s worse than you thought

The New Neo Posted on November 29, 2009 by neoNovember 29, 2009

A couple of must-read articles:

Poor Harry, the hapless computer programmer.

And about that code.

Posted in Science | 41 Replies

Photos of Thanksgiving just passed

The New Neo Posted on November 29, 2009 by neoNovember 29, 2009

The view from the kitchen window:

100_27881.JPG

Two small samplers of the dishes:

100_2803.JPG

100_2804.JPG

Posted in Food | 10 Replies

Pay no attention to that Climategate behind the curtain

The New Neo Posted on November 29, 2009 by neoNovember 29, 2009

Because I’ve been away from civilization for nearly four days, I haven’t been able to follow the twistings and turnings of Climategate as closely as I otherwise would. But from my quick perusal of the subject today, it strikes me that (a) not too much has changed since I left, although it’s become more clear that the AGW researchers relied on data that was in utter chaos; and (b) the most interesting developments right now are non-developments—meaning that the AGW movement is attempting to ignore Climategate and go full speed ahead in implementing the manifold international policy changes they’ve been advocating for years, based on their findings.

Why not? This is their big chance, because if the data is really as shaky as it seems, time can only harm their cause. Now that President Obama is in the Oval Office, and Pelosi and Reid command huge majorities in their respective legislatures, the entire liberal agenda has its strongest (and perhaps only) chance of being enacted. Why bother with such troubling side issues as facts? And isn’t a bit of chicanery in a good cause such as AGW (or lying about the probable effects of health care reform, or how many jobs were created by the stimulus bill, or any number of inconvenient truths) perfectly okay for such well-meaning folks? Isn’t all fair in love and war and saving the planet?

With the press firmly in the liberal pocket, the usual checks and balances provided by the media barely exist right now. In that context, it’s surprising that the NY Times actually managed to publish this Climategate article two days ago. It’s a curious artifact, one that covers the topic at some length without going into much depth, and presents it mostly as a “he-said/he-said” disagreement between the AGW scientists and the AGW “skeptics” (love that word; it somehow takes away from the fact that many of the latter are scientists, too), with no small emphasis on the illegality of the hacking, and lots of disclaimers from the AGW scientists that anything important was involved.

According to the Times, the AGW scientists allege all is well and Climategate’s a mere tempest in a teapot, while the skeptics allege that it calls into question the entire edifice on which AGW is based. And it’s no surprise that it’s only towards the end of the article that we learn that even some AGW proponents are disturbed by Climategate—although it is a surprise that the Times sees fit to mention this at all.

As I wrote here, anyone interested in the objectivity of science ought to be shocked by the revelations of Climategate, which do not necessarily disprove AGW but call its findings into real question. The scandal should result in a demand for a reworking of the data and a re-examination of the entire field in the light of its disclosures, and the AGW advocates should be in the forefront of this move.

Dream on. Although (as the Times reports) there have been a few such responses, the far more common reaction is to deny, defend, and circle the AGW wagons. And, as this piece in today’s Washington Post indicates, it is possible to write a thousand-plus-word post-Climategate article on next week’s looming international climate change policy talks in Copenhagen without ever mentioning the scientific fracas roiling the underlying research and researchers.

Compare and contrast to this article in Britain’s more conservative paper, the Telegraph. The headline is “Climate change: this is the worst scientific scandal of our generation—our hopelessly compromised scientific establishment cannot be allowed to get away with the Climategate whitewash, says Christopher Booker.”

I will quote from the Booker piece at some length, to give you an idea of what the Times is not saying (and note the use of the word “informed” in the first sentence that follows; I believe that Booker should have added the word “objective,” as well as adding the word “should” in front of the phrase “have sent”):

There are three threads in particular in the leaked documents which have sent a shock wave through informed observers across the world. Perhaps the most obvious, as lucidly put together by Willis Eschenbach (see McIntyre’s blog Climate Audit and Anthony Watt’s blog Watts Up With That), is the highly disturbing series of emails which show how Dr Jones and his colleagues have for years been discussing the devious tactics whereby they could avoid releasing their data to outsiders under freedom of information laws.

They have come up with every possible excuse for concealing the background data on which their findings and temperature records were based.

This in itself has become a major scandal, not least Dr Jones’s refusal to release the basic data from which the CRU derives its hugely influential temperature record, which culminated last summer in his startling claim that much of the data from all over the world had simply got “lost”. Most incriminating of all are the emails in which scientists are advised to delete large chunks of data, which, when this is done after receipt of a freedom of information request, is a criminal offence.

But the question which inevitably arises from this systematic refusal to release their data is ”“ what is it that these scientists seem so anxious to hide? The second and most shocking revelation of the leaked documents is how they show the scientists trying to manipulate data through their tortuous computer programmes, always to point in only the one desired direction ”“ to lower past temperatures and to “adjust” recent temperatures upwards, in order to convey the impression of an accelerated warming. This comes up so often (not least in the documents relating to computer data in the Harry Read Me file) that it becomes the most disturbing single element of the entire story.

Please read the whole thing. Booker is hardly objective, of course; he’s one of those nefarious AGW “skeptics.” But the points he makes need answering, and in the current political climate it seems more likely that the whitewash Booker fears will actually occur, and Climategate will become a mere footnote in the annals of global climate and energy policy, as AGW proponents march on to change the world in light of scientific findings they have manipulated and distorted.

Posted in Press, Science | 37 Replies

Reporting back from Thanksgiving

The New Neo Posted on November 29, 2009 by neoNovember 29, 2009

I’m back home at last. Being away was a nice respite, but I kept wondering what was going on in the world (with only a hard copy of the NY Times to tell me!) and I kept wondering what was going on with the blog. And I even managed the feat of passing the entire three days without getting caught up in any political discussions.

For Thanksgiving itself, there was a very large organic turkey and a very small wild turkey with the usual tasty accompaniments, and a few unusual ones as well. My favorite was a mashed potato and roasted celery root dish, which sounds awful but was unbelievably good—and I don’t even like mashed potatoes. But when I looked at the recipe, I saw that it was helped along to deliciousness by a vast quantity of butter and heavy cream.

To me, Thanksgiving just isn’t complete without that biggest gut-buster of them all, pecan pie. But it was decreed by those in charge this year that pecan pie tends to do people in, and so it was taken off the list. Somehow, we managed to make do with an apple pie, a trifle, and two chocolate dishes (alas, off-limits to me; you can find the sad story here).

It was good seeing the family. My nearly-96-year-old mother was there, sprung from her assisted living facility for the occasion. She’s quieter than before, and has lost weight recently, but she still manages to play a mean game of boggle.

When I went out for my walk, I was told that I had to wear something bright to avoid getting shot by hunters. I ended up wearing both of these at once, a symphony in red and orange:

huntingjacket-1.jpg

huntinghat.jpg

I’m tired—but happy to have gone, and happy to be home again.

Posted in Me, myself, and I | 24 Replies

Going cold turkey for Thanksgiving

The New Neo Posted on November 25, 2009 by neoNovember 25, 2009

I’m going to the country for Thanksgiving, to a house where there’s no TV and no internet. That means I’ll probably be offline for about two days, starting Wednesday afternoon.

Of course, I might be able to sneak out to an internet cafe to get my fix, or visit the home of another friend with wifi. And who knows, maybe some random guest will come equipped with an iPhone.

Am I addicted, or what?

I’ve written quite a few posts today for you to savor over the holiday, along with your turkey. A very Happy Thanksgiving to all!

Posted in Uncategorized | 22 Replies

Obama, Churchill, and finishing the job: compare and contrast

The New Neo Posted on November 25, 2009 by neoNovember 25, 2009

It’s enough to make you weep.

During Obama’s announcement that soon he’ll be making an announcement about the number of troops in Afghanistan, he said:

After eight years ”” some of those years in which we did not have, I think, either the resources or the strategy to get the job done ”” it is my intention to finish the job.

It’s got the usual (and apparently irresistible) element of Bush-bashing, as well as the usual avoidance of any mention of so archaic a notion as victory. But that phrase—“finish the job”—rang a small and distant bell with me. It echoed a famous Churchill speech during the time when America had not yet entered WWII, but Britain was fully occupied in fighting it.

So I listened to an excerpt from Churchill’s speech. The differences are profound, as one might expect, and I’m not just talking about the famous Churchillian voice. The British PM is talking about resolve, as he often did, and conveying it most effectively (not to mention poetically). This is exactly and precisely what Obama lacks, although it’s not the only thing he lacks.

Here it is:

Give us the tools and we will finish the job said Churchill, speaking to the US about war supplies. Note that he talks of “we,” the British nation, rather than himself. Note, also, that he is asking for the tools, but Obama is the one who’s been denying his own generals the tools (in terms of troops and the supplies that go with them) these long—and supposedly very important—months in Afghanistan, while he decided which job it was that he actually wanted to finish.

From Roosevelt’s letter on the subject, a quote from a Longfellow poem:


Sail on, Oh Ship of State!
Sail on, Oh Union strong and great.
Humanity with all its fears
With all the hope of future years
Is hanging breathless on thy fate.

[NOTE: In a related item, I note that in the ten short months (they just seem long) he’s been in office, President Obama has managed to damage relations with Great Britain to a greater extent than any previous president since George Washington and James Madison were at war with it. Now the British defense secretary, Bob Ainsworth, has publicly criticized Obama’s indecision on Afghanistan, saying that it has affected the British public’s support for the mission.]

Posted in Afghanistan, Historical figures, Obama, War and Peace | 25 Replies

Wanting to believe in miracles: the case of Rom Houben

The New Neo Posted on November 25, 2009 by neoNovember 25, 2009

By now you’ve probably all heard the remarkable case of Rom Houben, the young man trapped in a paralyzed body for 23 years, unable to communicate and thought to be in a vegetative state. Recent brain scans indicated much more activity inside his mind than anyone had dreamed, and now he’s communicating complex ideas about what he’d been thinking and feeling all these years.

It’s a wonderful story, and we’d all like to believe it’s true—that Houben has come back to the land of the living and communicating, and can now tell his loving parents that he felt “blessed with my family.”

Trouble is, I don’t think it’s true.

Let me explain. I was touched by the news when I first heard it, and eager for more details. But when I looked at this video, just a few seconds of watching the way Houben communicates gave me the sinking feeling that this was another example of the extremely suspect technique known as facilitated communication.

Facilitated communication was thought to be a big breakthrough in the field of autism. But it turned out, for the most part (with a tiny number of exceptions) to be a product of hope and nothing more.

Here is some information from the Amazing Randi about how it works:

I cannot understand how anyone, professional medical person or layman, can continue to believe that the farce known as “Facilitated Communication” [FC] represents anything other than a fantasy that was begun back in 1977, when an Australian woman named Rosemary Crossley came up with the idea that autistic persons could express their thoughts via a keyboard when their hand was “supported” by what she called a “facilitator.” In 1989, Douglas Biklen, a sociologist and professor of special education at Syracuse University, eagerly took up her cause, and as a result vast sums were donated to SU by friends and family members of autism victims – money that was simply wasted in futile “research.”

I personally investigated this matter. In March of 1992 I was contacted by Dr. Anne M. Donnellan, of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who asked if I would be willing to participate in an investigation of FC as used with autistic children. I was already familiar with FC, and suggested to her that I felt the researchers were perhaps under the influence of the Clever Hans Effect [CHE], also known as the “ideomotor effect,” in which the trainer – the facilitator in this case – was unconsciously transmitting the information to the autistic child. This possibility was emphatically denied by Dr. Donnellan, and I was assured that every care had been taken to ensure that the CHE was not in operation…

My tests of autistic children at the University of Wisconsin-Madison clearly showed that FC was simply a tragic farce…

The “facilitated communication” process consists of the “facilitator” actually holding the hand of the subject over the keyboard, moving the hand to the key, then drawing the hand back from the keyboard! This very intimate participatory action lends itself very easily to transferring the intended information to the computer screen. In the video you have just viewed, it is very evident that (a) the “facilitator” is looking directly at the keyboard and the screen, and (b) is moving the subject’s hand. The video editing is also biased, giving angles that line up the head of the subject with the screen, as if the subject were watching the screen.

This man in the msnbc.com piece is not seeing the screen. He is not aware of what is going on. He is an unknowing victim of these charlatans. A simple test – such as that done on October 19th, 1993, in a Frontline (PBS) documentary highlighting these concerns, “Prisoners of Silence,” would prove that FC is a total fraud. This powerful and comprehensive program proved that FC was a delusion.

The reason I immediately recognized what was probably happening with Mr. Houben is that I had seen that Frontline documentary when it had first aired. It was so dramatic and memorable, disturbing yet convincing and ultimately tragic, that I never forgot it. I disagree with Randi on one point: I believe that neither the facilitators nor the experimenters were charlatans, exactly, because they did not know the truth until the experiments revealed it—they believed, too, because they wanted so badly to be able to reach these children. The movements of the facilitators are quite subtle and unconscious, the whole thing working somewhat like the old-fashioned Ouija board.

What’s really going on with Rom Houben? Evidence indicates that he does have more ability to communicate and think than originally believed: for example, he can tap his foot yes and no in answer to some simple questions, and his brain scans indicate some sort of activity. So he has probably retained the ability to communicate in a basic way, but the articulate sentences he supposedly generates through the facilitated computer are extremely suspect, and are probably generated by the hopeful mind of the facilitator, whether she knows it or not. This could be tested rather easily, by asking him a question to which he would be expected to know the answer but about which the facilitator would be expected to know nothing.

One of the most interesting things about this case, if my theory turns out to be correct (and here is another observor who shares it), is how eager people are to be fooled, if they really want to believe, and how ignorant the world (both the physicians and the journalists) still is about the perils of facilitated communication.

I had the advantage of having seen the Frontline documentary. But I wouldn’t have thought that to be necessary. One look at the videotape of Houben and his helper should have at least raised questions in the minds of observers.

Posted in Health, Science | 33 Replies

Credit where credit’s due: Michelle Obama’s gown

The New Neo Posted on November 25, 2009 by neoNovember 25, 2009

Nag, nag, nag, that’s all I seem to do with President Obama these days (not that he listens to me, but still).

In the meantime, Michelle Obama hasn’t been on my radar screen much, although nearly a year ago I did take notice of the fact that the gown she wore to the inaugural ball really didn’t suit her at all. Too frilly girly-girly for a tall and statuesque woman. What’s more, being a helpful sort, I even suggested a more elegant alternative.

Well, even though President Obama obviously isn’t taking my advice, maybe the First Lady is, because I’m happy to report that last night she wore a flattering evening gown, more on the order of the one I’d originally recommended:

michellegown.jpg

It’s a relief to be able to say something positive about one of the Obamas, even if it’s only about a topic as trivial as a ball gown.

Posted in Fashion and beauty, Obama | 18 Replies

Obama’s on a roll—downhill

The New Neo Posted on November 24, 2009 by neoNovember 24, 2009

Indications are that President Obama is sliding downward in the public’s estimation. For the first time, for example, all the polls show his approval rating falling below 50% (here’s the NY Times’s spin on that). Just as significantly, all but his most die-hard journalistic supporters (and even some of them) are expressing doubts about him.

It’s not just one event that was the turning point. It’s been an accretion of small things, plus a number of larger things, forming a picture that is becoming more and more difficult to shut out. The Holder/Obama KSM decision was one of these larger things; polls indicate that “only 34 percent of Americans support the decision to try the al-Qaida leaders in a federal district court,” whereas “[s]ixty-four percent said they should be tried by a military commission, as the Bush administration planned to do.”

Ouch! That must sting, particularly the public’s widespread agreement with the policy of the nefarious Bush. Obama can’t blame his predecessor for this one, although the main reason Obama chose a civilian trial for KSM would appear to be the need to have the proceedings be a vehicle for making Bush/Cheney look bad. But it seems that most Americans aren’t buying it, nor should they be.

This might just be the most unpopular decision of Obama’s presidency so far, which makes the poll the most encouraging one I’ve seen in a long time. Is common sense finally going to prevail? Are the scales falling from Americans’ eyes about the nature of the man they elected? Is it clear enough now that he has chosen, for petty political reasons, to compromise America’s security?

But it’s not just the KSM trial, not by a longshot. There is general disillusionment with Obama at home and abroad. People are starting to worry that, if Emperor Obama isn’t exactly naked, it looks as though he may have gone out in his skivvies.

Last weekend’s SNL skit was emblematic of the change. This was no gentle ribbing; it was a really nasty piece of work, with a very hard edge. I wonder what the notoriously thin-skinned Obama will think of it.

Here is more bewilderment and disillusionment about Obama, just one of a host of recent articles by Obama supporters who’ve become deeply disappointed in many aspects of his behavior.

Is the Obama administration turning into a short-lived (a single year instead of a hundred) one-hoss shay? You know, the one that:

“went to pieces all at once,
All at once, and nothing first,
Just as bubbles do when they burst.”

For those of us who have never agreed with most of Obama’s policies, and who have long considered him a con and a liar who does not have America’s best interests at heart, the fact that the public is beginning to realize this is good. Let’s hope it’s not too late to reverse the course of the ship of state. But what to do when it increasingly appears that the captain is steering it towards the rocks?

Posted in Obama | 57 Replies

Obama and Afghanistan: for want of 6,000 troops…

The New Neo Posted on November 24, 2009 by neoNovember 25, 2009

The buzz is that President Obama will finally announce his Afghanistan decision on December 1, and that the magic number of troops sent will be 34,000.

If so (and I must emphasize that this information is based on anonymous leaks, and therefore suspect), that would represent a compromise between two plans General McCrystal offered. They are the so-called “high-risk” position and the “medium risk” position, based on 20,000 and 40,000 troops, respectively (there was also a “low risk” option of 80,000 extra troops).

If this news turns out to be correct, it will represent Obama’s need to put his own stamp on things. Instead of choosing one of the options his own hand-picked general has suggested, he would be selecting “none of the above,” or rather “somewhere between two of the above.” That way he (supposedly) shows how thoughtful he is, and that he’s the one in control rather than being some sort of puppet of the military. It also would be an attempt to placate his Leftist antiwar base (“see, I sent fewer troops than they asked for”), pay attention to campaign promises that he’d tend to Afghanistan properly, and soothe those on the Right who think he’s not been doing enough.

Will it work? Depends what you mean by “work.”

Will it work in terms of meeting our military objectives in Afghanistan? I haven’t a clue—although I imagine the generals do, and I think they asked for those particular numbers for a reason. Obama’s decision would be neither fish nor fowl. His military knowledge and interest is nil. He famously opposed the surge, for example, and clung tenaciously to that opposition when other surge-opponents had grudgingly admitted the surge’s success.

However, there are good reasons that our founders placed the mantle of Commander-in-Chief, as well as the Cabinet positions that advise a President on war, in civilian hands. Presidents are not meant to merely rubber-stamp military recommendations. But they do need to remember that they appoint military experts for a reason. If Obama’s strategy is really to win in Afghanistan, and if he is dedicated to that task (as his campaign rhetoric indicated, although I found it unconvincing), why would he choose the medium risk option, and then nickel and dime things by shorting McChrystal 6,000 troops? Why not at least send the full 40,000?

The answer, of course, is politics. And if Obama does send 34,000 troops, will it “work” in terms of politics? I don’t think so; neither Left nor Right is likely to be placated or fooled by the compromise response, which looks weak and gives neither what they want.

And speaking of weak, Obama’s Hamlet-like vacillation over the last few months only plays well with die-hard supporters. Because the process of making up his mind about Afghanistan took so long, it’s unlikely that Obama’s final decision will be seen by most people as a tough one providing sorely needed leadership. On the contrary, it has made a great many people on both sides very uneasy.

The bottom line, however, is what happens in Afghanistan during the next year or so. If the situation improves there, Obama’s decision, with all its attendant dithering, will seem to have been a brilliant one in retrospect. Remember that, unlike Bush, Obama still has the goodwill of the MSM, who would dearly love to see him have a victory. Therefore, any improvement in Afghanistan will be deemed a success.

[NOTE: The title of this post comes from the nursery rhyme “For Want of a Nail.”]

[ADDENDUM: Ed Morrissey has more to say on the subject.]

Posted in Afghanistan, Military, Obama | 13 Replies

The dark side of Palin-hatred

The New Neo Posted on November 24, 2009 by neoNovember 24, 2009

“Dark side,” you ask? Isn’t it all pretty dark?

Perhaps. But this article by therapist Robin of Berkeley goes even deeper into the heart of darkness that is Palin-hatred.

Posted in Palin | 13 Replies

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