Is Iran approaching a tipping point?
I don’t want to be counting too many unhatched chickens, but there are some promising signs in Iran.
A few days ago Ali Larijani was trash-talking Trump and Netanyahu. No more:
A senior Iranian leader who warned President Trump last week to “watch out for yourself — lest you be eliminated” was killed in an overnight strike, Israel’s defense minister said Tuesday.
Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, was hit days after joining Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in the streets of Tehran at a Friday rally marking the pro-Palestinian Quds Day holiday.
“It’s clear they’re running out of steam,” Larijani told a TV interviewer in reference to Operation Epic Fury. “Trump’s problem is that he doesn’t understand that the Iranian nation is mature and determined.”
He was one of the most powerful men in the Iranian government, widely thought to be the current head – if the Iranian government can be said to have one.
He’s not the only Iranian higher-up to have met his death recently:
In a separate statement, the Israel Defense Forces announced it had killed Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, head of the Revolutionary Guard’s all-volunteer Basij force, in a “targeted strike” on Tehran.
This Soleimani was unrelated to Qasem Soleimani, killed by the US in 2020. But no doubt a lot of people in Iran have had reason to rejoice at his death. He was the one giving the orders to shoot demonstrators.
When I read that both men had been killed, I wondered why the recent public appearance and bravado statements from Larijani. Saving face right up to the end? Or have the leaders come to believe in their own invincibility over the years? I don’t know whether we can take the following at face value, either:
A regular user of social media, Larijani responded Sunday to the $10 million reward offer by the US by quoting Hussein Ibn Ali, an early Shia Islam leader: “I do not see death as anything but happiness, nor life with the oppressors as anything but torment.”
Well, he got his wish. Iran has officially confirmed his death.
Now it comes down to how many in the Iranian government and enforcement police are true believers and how many are pragmatists who will abandon the cause. I don’t know the answer, but I hear rumors of more defections. For example, the president of the country is said to be considering resignation – although I think his power wasn’t all that great to begin with. Meanwhile, titular Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is nowhere to be seen and is still unheard, although he keeps “issuing statements” read by others; Iran keeps pounding the Gulf States; and the IDF intelligence chief says Iran is “in distress” but the prospect of regime change is uncertain.
Well, we already knew that.
NOTE: The intelligence on these guys’ whereabouts is truly impressive. I would love to know how the Mossad – I think it’s mainly them, although US intelligence may have some role as well – does it.
Iran’s leadership is clearly splitting. Instapundit shares a report from C14 News in Israel on further developments via X.com:
IRAN IN CHAOS: PRESIDENT WANTS OUT
“There’s a real upheaval in Iran… President Pezeshkian is considering resigning from his post.”
Channel 14’s Senior Iran Analyst
@DBalazada
explains what inside sources tell him is happening today inside the government:
Pezeshkian is reportedly “exceptionally angry” at the Revolutionary Guards, accusing them of “reckless” conduct. He claims the failure to protect Ali Larijani was not negligence, but a deliberate move to ensure his elimination.
The IRGC is reportedly “very pleased” with Larijani’s death, having already prepared an “elimination dossier” on him and his brother.
The bottom line – Iran is transitioning into an extremist military regime where Mojtaba Khamenei acts as a mere “puppet” of the Revolutionary Guards, who completely control the country.“
https://x.com/c14israel/status/2033979253700661423?
Also from Instapundit, about the Iranian Embassy in Copenhagen flying the lion flag of Iran, the flag of the Shahs.iNSTAPUNDIT: DID AN IRANIAN EMBASSY JUST DEFECT?
Bu this could be fake news, given how AI can create things these days.
yes pezekian, probably signed on for this, thinking there wouldn’t be too much heavy lifting, but hes faced at least two assasination attempts,
the fact, that the ayatollah is still doing his best schrodingers impression, suggests that regional commands are in charge of the counter attack, perhaps as much about resentment of the rich gulf states, as any ideological concerns
Just because we think a motivation is frivolous doesn’t make it so,
I was looking up Twelver Shiaism, it’s been a major force in Iran, for hundreds of years, it didn’t turn feral since Qomeini and the Qum school in the 60s, his predecessor Behesti (sic) was even in favor of the 1953 revolt against Mossadecq,
‘events dear boy’ as one wag put it, change impressions,
Iranians are subject to horrific inflation, severe damage to their petrol-processing industry, loss of markets for their oil, all of which redounds to China’s benefit.Trump just needs to stay his course, cowardly blowhard Europe be damned. Iran will eventually have to retrieve its mines in the Gulf, a hazardous undertaking that US naval assets need not be subjected to.
I feel sorry for ordinary Iranians, a proud and very able people. but they are without the arms needed to rebel against their Khameniesque oppressors who shoot their fellow citizens down like rabid dogs..
why the recent public appearance and bravado statements
My opinion is that it is still for internal consumption. They may or may not be able to dodge or hide from Israeli and U.S. weapons, but they are sure to die if the people rise up. That is even now their greatest fear. They must keep up the appearance of strength and control.
I hear the younger Ayatollah is hopping mad, although it’s hard to make cardboard look alive.
Here’s hoping it’s true.
thats just one notion, that comes to mind,
apparently hes’ peg legged like the black knight of python fave,
Larijani seemed to think he was invulnerable, which considering everything that had happened in the last two years seems foolhardy, but inshallah as they say
US CentCom:
https://x.com/i/status/2034040698954031326
Map image at link.
Inshallah – FAFO.
sdferr – sounds like they also failed the “How not to be seen.” test.
Rub-a-dub-dub, making that coast squeaky clean.
Surrender mullahs, surrender while ya can.
Is the US military’s Achilles heel apparent from the misplacing of American mine-sweepers? Desperately needed in the Straits of Hormuz?
Two of which, once were in Bahrain, but recently seen in Malaysia. TWZ.com, a milblogger, reports on the details.
https://www.twz.com/sea/u-s-navy-minesweepers-assigned-to-middle-east-have-been-moved-to-pacific
om– The USS Caine is standing down until the extra key to the freezer is located which will resolve the mystery of the missing strawberries.
—- LCDR Phillip Queeg, Commanding
TousiTV has street celebrations in Iran of the Zoroastrian Festival of Fire, while IAF hits Basij strongholds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXUzRhxcSoI
Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Afghanistan or Iraq anymore.
TJ-
Youseem to believe the USN has or should have future-seeing vision.Japan is not just around the corner from Hormuz, and the minesweeper(s) may have had mainenance stuff that had to be done in a friendly harbor. I expect minesweepers are not speedy craft; how many days from Honshu to Hormuz at 12-15 knots ? many!
I’m not going to speculate on whether this was a proper action or not – I don’t have enough information and can’t fully trust what I do have – but we are in it, so I’d rather we finish it properly (actually win, not just declare it and leave) and not pull another Vietnam.
@CICERO: Iranians are subject to horrific inflation, severe damage to their petrol-processing industry, loss of markets for their oil, all of which redounds to China’s benefit.
How so? Iran supplies ~10% of China’s oil.
_________________________
China is losing 1.7 million barrels per day of discounted iranian oil and faces secondary sanctions
China bought approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports at sanction-discount prices. That supply is gone. Higher global oil prices hit China’s economy directly.
https://datarepublican.substack.com/i/190345817/fact-7-china-is-losing-17-million-barrels-per-day-of-discounted-iranian-oil-and-faces-secondary-sanctions
_________________________
China is a loser in this war.
School of War podcast (Aaron MacLean) interviews Zineb Riboua on “Can Trump Beat China by Winning in Iran?” [40:37]: https://youtu.be/epemlL8hOlE
sdferr (11:47 pm) said: “School of War podcast (Aaron MacLean) interviews Zineb Riboua on ‘Can Trump Beat China by Winning in Iran?'”
I’m also very interested in whether Trump can beat Harris/AOC/Newsom/whomever, even at this very early point in the cycle. (A tad off-topic, I know.)
The LCS craft currently used for minesweeping can steam at 40+ knots, but with limited range. Max range at economical speed of 18 knots is around somewhat more than 4,000 miles.
On the minesweeper question. This account says the old minesweepers were scheduled for decommission as of 2024, and newer ones which are safer for US sailors are in use. (These would be the LCS to which Alan E. Colby refers.)
https://x.com/ratlpolicy/status/2034005527714574775?s=20
“The bottom line – Iran is transitioning into an extremist military regime where Mojtaba Khamenei acts as a mere “puppet” of the Revolutionary Guards, who completely control the country.“
Analogy
1944 – Hitler is bumped off and the Schutzstaffel (SS) now runs the country. Good news is the Wehrmacht hates the SS (In Iran the Artesh hates the IRGC)
“The intelligence on these guys’ whereabouts is truly impressive. I would love to know how the Mossad – I think it’s mainly them, although US intelligence may have some role as well – does it.”
Maybe you already heard this, but I suspect the intelligence was all collected prior to this current conflict in a rather ingenious but simple way. Watching Iran’s traffic cameras. Following the Supreme Leader’s motorcade through the streets and watching all the places he visits, his routines, and so forth– piece of cake. All his cohorts the same. Computer mapping and organizing all the routes. Voila’!
Of course, this should make us aware of or own vulnerabilities in this “surveillance” age
Correct, Kate. The LCS (Littoral Combat Ship) uses modules to convert to various uses, among those, mine counter measures. Many naval analysts say LCS stands for Little Crappy Ship, since they are underarmed, unreliable and like everything else “multi-purpose”, not very useful for any specific task. As Littoral-oriented combat vessels, you’d think they’d be useful in confined waters like the Strait of Hormuz. They aren’t, but at least as minesweepers, they can be marginally effective.
Alan E Colbo:
Cdrsalamander on substack has been documenting the sad state of the Little Crappy Ships from their begining. Retired USN officer.
Neo: You ask how Mossad has managed to find all these people and track them down?
Former CIA employee John Kiriakou had a recent You Tube video in which he claimed there are about 2 million Afghan refugees in Iran, and that the Iranian Government has ignored them. Mossad tracked them down and recruited many, then had them start reporting on the whereabouts of senior Iranian officials. After a little tracking, they were able to isolate their cellphone signals and tracked them through towers. When the Iranians figured out they were being tracked and told officials to abandon their cellphones, Mossad started tracking the cellphones of the officials’ bodyguards. Sounds plausible.
Nuthin’ like having excellent intelligence…
“US intel hid Chinese 2020 election meddling from Trump because they opposed his policies, memo says”—
https://justthenews.com/government/security/analysts-hid-chinese-2020-meddling-intel-vulgarian-trump-over-opposing-his
+ Related…
“The Election Integrity Crisis: Unveiling China’s Secret Infiltration of U.S. Voter Files”—
https://justthenews.com/podcasts/john-solomon-reports/election-integrity-crisis-unveiling-chinas-secret-infiltration-us
+ Bonus…
“Leavitt: Gabbard not at risk of being fired after Joe Kent resignation”—
https://justthenews.com/government/security/leavitt-gabbard-not-risk-being-fired-after-joe-kent-resignation
(Should be “…after Joe Kent face plant”.)
Go Tulsi!
Related (mullahsweeper):
“MAKING IT PERSONAL…”
https://instapundit.com/783557/
Key grafs:
Pretty sure this shoulda’ won the Oscar for “Best Documentary.”
(Maybe it’s not too late…)
“Now it comes down to how many in the Iranian government and enforcement police are true believers and how many are pragmatists who will abandon the cause.” – Neo
That’s the $64K question.
We don’t know how many of the ideological IRGC/Basij forces have been killed in the air strikes targeting the military infrastructure.
We do know that every day is so much different than the last, it’s hard to make predictions that last more than a day. Tousi tv thinks the day is closer.
BREAKING: Armed Iranians Target IRGC In Tehran – Mullah Leader In Iran Killed By IDF
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTOTsOnpZJc
I wonder if the Artesh (if there are any nationalists/loyal to the country) might be forced to act sooner rather than later. If a true leadership vacuum has occurred in the country, sectarian/ethnic interests might take advantage of that. The sooner a central government/order is restored the more likely the country doesn’t drift into chaos.
I wonder if the Iran spokesman we see on the media is the current iteration of Baghdad Bob– who was famously speaking as American tanks drove by in the background (at least that’s how I remember it).