And a fascinating one it is.
Ever since I’ve heard of this race, I’d been searching and searching for a poll, but nada so far until today. Rasmussen says that the results are 50% Coakley to 41% Brown, which doesn’t sound so good for Brown.
But remember, this is Massachusetts, nearly the bluest state in the country. This is Ted Kennedy’s seat, after all. Brown’s momentum is still building. And this is a special election, in which turnout tends to be low unless voters are enthused.
Coakley voters are not enthused, although they may become so if they hear that Brown has a chance to be a Republican Senator from Massachusetts (isn’t that a sort of oxymoron?). I’ve seen the Coakley ads, and the woman conveys nothing whatsoever that might engender enthusiasm, whereas Brown—well, that’s another story.
In the Rasmussen poll, the third candidate, the serendipitously-named Libertarian candidate Joe Kennedy (no relation) was left out for unknown reasons, although “some other candidate” is mentioned as a possibility. It’s hard to know what effect Kennedy will have on the race. He might split the Conservative vote, or he might cause liberals to pull the lever for him because they think he’s of the famous old family and a liberal (especially if they don’t know what the word “libertarian” means.)
Whatever happens, there’s only about two weeks till election time. If Brown were to win or even be competitive, it would be practically a miracle, far bigger than what happened recently in Virginia and New Jersey combined. It would send a cold shiver throughout the entire Democratic party. In fact, today’s Rasmussen poll (which also included the finding that, among voters who say they are certain to vote, Brown came within two points of Coakley; and that Brown leads among unaffiliated voters 65% to 21%) ought to cause Democrats to break into a cold sweat already.
However, as Sisu points out, a Brown victory might take even more than a miracle, since the Democrats have a habit of bringing the required number of dead people to the Massachusetts voting booths if necessary.
But, as the man says, it’s time to throw a snowball at Washington:
[NOTE: In related news, Curt Schilling makes the pitch for Brown. Donations for Brown accepted here. And more links here.]
