Delaware notwithstanding, it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that Newt Gingrich’s days as a candidate are numbered. The only question now is when he’ll drop out.
For some, that’s a relief. For others, it’s the death knell of the chances for a conservative candidate to be nominated for the presidency in 2012. One of the post-mortems on the 2012 campaign will probably be that Gingrich and Santorum hurt the conservative cause by splitting the conservative vote, but I actually don’t think that was the problem. The problem was there was no “truly conservative” candidate who was also a good candidate.
It’s not that those two things are oxymorons. I’m convinced that there are quite a few politicians with more conservative records than Romney who could have beaten Obama, but they didn’t run (and, by the way, IMHO, Sarah Palin was not one of those people). Either Gingrich or Santorum—or any of the other conservative candidates in 2012, such as Bachmann—could have united the conservative vote and been the nominee, except that none of them were strong candidates and conservatives were torn among them and then between them.
The same thing happened in 2008, only back then one of those conservative candidates who wasn’t strong enough was Mitt Romney. So those of you who despise him now can do so for at least two reasons: he paved the way for McCain’s nomination in 2008 because he was one of the not-strong conservative candidates back then, and now that he’s almost undoubtedly the 2012 nominee you can hate him because he’s a RINO and only a faux conservative.
You could ask me why, if Romney was a weak candidate in 2008, do I think he’s stronger now? It’s a good question, and I have an answer, one you may either accept or reject as you see fit. It may be hard to look back and remember it, but one of the major issues in the 2008 campaign was not the economy (that is, not till the last few weeks, and by then McCain was already the candidate), an area of weakness for McCain and strength for Romney, but the war on terror and the war in Iraq, That’s where McCain was stronger, and that was a good part of the reason that people voted for him in the primaries—which, after all, occur earlier in the year. By the time of the election, that had already faded quite a bit from view in people’s minds and been replaced by “it’s the economy, stupid,” which remains true today.
Another thing to remember is that the Barack Obama of 2008 was not the Barack Obama of 2012. In 2008 the nation was ready to turn to someone new and untried, a young man who promised all sorts of things, including an end to the divisiveness and rancor of the Bush era. We’ve seen how that worked out, and now the nation might just be longing for a stable, somewhat dull guy—older but not old, and seasoned as an executive—who can fix things.

