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The new unemployment figures

The New Neo Posted on October 5, 2012 by neoOctober 5, 2012

This month’s figure is 7.8%.

James Pethokoukis offers his usual analysis, and summarizes thusly: “Only in an era of depressingly diminished expectations could the September jobs report be called a good one. It really isn’t. Not at all.”

Obama says exactly what you’d expect him to be saying: “We are moving forward again.”

And meanwhile, there’s a secondary brouhaha about remarks by former GE CEO Jack Welch that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is cooking the books to favor Obama.

But I don’t think they even need to cook the books. Statistics such as the unemployment rate are often misleading even when done properly. Personally (although I don’t doubt Obama would do it if he could, and if he felt it necessary), I’m with Keith Hall, former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who had this to say:

There ’s nothing wrong with the numbers. The only issue is the interpretation of the numbers. The numbers are what they are.

The article goes on:

The unemployment rate estimate is derived from a survey of households, which came up with an estimate that 863,000 jobs were added for the month.

But the separate establishment survey from which the official payrolls number is derived reported a more modest seasonally adjusted gain of 114,000 jobs in September. That was below the consensus forecast of 118,000, though the previous two months were revised higher.

Mr. Hall said the inconsistent reports reflect the different samples used in the two surveys, one focused on households the other on businesses. The establishment survey has a huge sample size of 141,000 business and agencies covering 486,000 worksites, whereas the household survey covers just 60,000 homes.

“The household survey is much smaller. When you look at something like labor force and employment levels, the uncertainty of those numbers is much larger,” said Mr. Hall. “Within two months, the household survey could show the unemployment rate eking back up.”

I know that politics is about spin these days. But I really don’t know why anyone would pay a whole lot of attention to an unemployment rate that goes slightly up or slightly down one month before an election and think it means very much. What’s far more important is that the president has had four years in office, and the economy has been bad the whole time. All you have to do is imagine how the media would spin these figures if Bush (or for that matter, Romney, or any other Republican) were in office and you know there’s no need to cook the books.

[ADDENDUM: Paul Mirengoff of Powerline points out a good illustration of what Keith Hall was talking about, concerning the household survey numbers vs. the business survey [emphasis mine]:

So how did the Department of Labor come up with an unemployment rate that indicates significant improvement in the jobs picture? It found the alleged improvement through its survey of households. As Hassett explains, the Labor Department’s jobs report is always based on two surveys, one of households and one of establishments.

Professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is considered less volatile. This month, that survey continues to show the usual weakness in the job market. But the household survey purports to show massive improvement.

Hassett says that during the Bush presidency, the MSM discounted the household survey whenever it revealed good news, claiming that the numbers are suspect. I find the latest household survey numbers ”” coming just before the climax of this election and contradicting more reliable data ”” to be suspect, indeed.

Again, it’s the spin that differs. By offering several numbers from which to pick and choose, the BLS gives the MSM the opportunity to tell the public which one is the more important, based on whether they want to help or hurt the administration.

And boy, am I ever getting tired of putting so many posts in that “press” category. But the topic comes up again and again and again.]

Posted in Election 2012, Finance and economics, Press | 13 Replies

Obama: just too nice a guy

The New Neo Posted on October 4, 2012 by neoOctober 4, 2012

The spin from the Obama camp as reported by Politico is that Obama’s just too nice a guy for politics, too focused on the truth and too interested in getting it out to the American people. Some excerpts, some of which are unintentionally funny:

Senior Obama adviser David Axelrod said on a conference call with reporters that Obama would reassess his approach in future debates with Romney ”” confrontations for which the president is “very, very eager,” Axelrod said…

Asked why Obama did not bring up several of the central themes in his brief against Romney, Axelrod answered: …“His interest was in honoring the American people with honest answers to serious questions.”

Obama has never been the nation’s most forceful debater, and he makes no secret of his disdain for the theatrical side of politics. If his conduct on the debate stage with Romney seemed oddly passive, it was in some ways just another manifestation of the president’s restrained approach to communicating with the electorate, whom he seems to believe ”” in the face of all existing evidence ”” are not swayed by electoral artifice…

This is somebody who, at his core, wants to have smart, rational conversations that result in people using common sense. He’s not a fire-breathing divider,” said Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, the vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee…

An early Obama endorser in the 2008 cycle, Rybalk recalled that all through that race “people were saying he should go for the jugular more with Hillary [Clinton] or with [John] McCain.”

“He’s not a person who necessarily loves or lives in the world of radical attack politics,” Rybak said.

And here’s my personal favorite:

“Gov. Romney may dance around his positions. But if you want to be president, you owe the American people the truth,” Obama said.

I said a lot of those quotes were unintentionally funny. But here’s something that’s intentionally funny (hat tip: Ace) from The Onion: “Mitt Adopts New ‘Ronnie Ferocious’ Persona for Debates”:

…Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney appeared tonight at the University of Denver’s Magness Arena as Ronnie Ferocious, the aggressive, no-rules punk-rock persona he has reportedly adopted for his three debates against President Barack Obama.

Wearing a sleeveless cutoff suit jacket, tight leather pants, and a blue tie knotted around his head of spiky, red-white-and-blue-streaked hair, Romney swaggered on stage, took his position beside Obama, and ordered debate moderator Jim Lehrer to “f**king do this already.”

“You know what? I’ll ask the first question,” the former Massachusetts governor said before putting out his cigarette on his forearm and flicking the butt at Lehrer.

And perhaps the strangest thing about the Onion piece is that, as best I can tell, it appears to have been written before the debate.

Posted in Election 2012, Obama, Romney | 25 Replies

Two kinds of shock

The New Neo Posted on October 4, 2012 by neoOctober 4, 2012

It occurs to me that last night’s debate was a shock to both left and right.

The left was shocked because they had really believed Obama’s hype, and he fell so far below their expectations—although perhaps it would be more accurate to say he failed so abysmally to live up to their beliefs.

The right was shocked because they really believed the negative media spin about Romney and he rose so far above their expectations—although perhaps it would be more accurate to say he succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.

And maybe that says even more about the difference between left and right than it does about the difference between Obama and Romney.

Posted in Election 2012, Liberals and conservatives; left and right, Obama, Romney | 59 Replies

The Luntz focus group

The New Neo Posted on October 4, 2012 by neoOctober 4, 2012

I’ve been watching those Luntz focus groups of independents and undecideds for years, and they tend to drive me nuts.

They seem to “focus” on things I find trivial or irrelevant. Their perceptions usually differ tremendously from mine. I don’t ever think I’ve been undecided about a presidential election in my lifetime, certainly not anywhere near close to Election Day. The only thing I’ve ever wavered on at times is who to vote for in the primaries. And even that has usually been a relatively easy task. So I don’t really understand “undecideds.”

That’s why last night’s Luntz focus group astounded me. They seemed thoughtful and articulate. Is that just because they agreed with me, for once? Or was it because there was something about Romney’s performance that spoke to them in particular, something that answered a question they’d been asking without even realizing it? Something, perhaps about leadership?

Posted in Election 2012, Romney | 15 Replies

The Emperor’s New Clothes

The New Neo Posted on October 4, 2012 by neoOctober 4, 2012

Joe Klein—yes, that Joe Klein—had this to say in Time’s Swampland about last night’s debate:

Well, I’m with all the other talking heads: Mitt Romney won this debate. Barack Obama lost it. I mean, he got his butt kicked. It was, in fact, one of the most inept performances I’ve ever seen by a sitting President. Romney”“credit where it’s due”“was calm, clear, convincing (even when he was totally full of it) and nearly human. The real mystery was Obama. Where on earth was he?…

Did the President send out his body double tonight? Because if that was the actual Barack Obama out there, I’m not sure he can communicate well enough to be an effective President in a time of trouble, to say nothing of winning a second term.

Remember the Hans Christian Anderson fable “The Emperor’s New Clothes”? We’ve sometimes jokingly compared Obama to the naked emperor in the story. But who ever really thought it would come true that so many of Obama’s erstwhile admirers would be afflicted with such sudden and deep doubts about his competence? And all because of a single debate?

Yeah, it may not last; a couple of weeks is almost an eternity in politics, and cockiness is never a good idea. But I’m heartily enjoying today for the sheer pleasure of remarks like Joe Klein’s, and the dawning of hope.

And I went back and reread the Emperor story, which I hadn’t seen in so many years that I was a mere child when I last looked at it. But it’s even more apropos than I thought. Have a read; it’s not long.

Posted in Election 2012, Literature and writing, Obama, Press, Romney | 53 Replies

Brand new debate thread

The New Neo Posted on October 3, 2012 by neoOctober 3, 2012

Here we go.

Posted in Uncategorized | 107 Replies

Obama and that Katrina vote

The New Neo Posted on October 3, 2012 by neoOctober 3, 2012

Commenter “Ken” points out something I hadn’t been aware of before: Obama was one of a small minority in the Senate who voted against the bill that waived the Stafford Act in order to make assistance funds available to the New Orleans Katrina victims without their having to match them with a 10% contribution.

That’s the same Stafford Act he lied about in his 2007 Hampton speech, the waiver that had actually occurred several weeks before he made the speech, the waiver that he voted against.

See this for a list of those who voted for and against. You’ll note that Obama’s “nay” vote was one of only 14 cast against the act, almost all of them liberal Democrats. No doubt he would say he knew the act would pass and so he felt okay voting against it in order to protest the Iraq war funds that were also part of the bill. But there’s something profoundly distasteful and almost grotesque about him voting against the waiver, knowing the bill had passed despite his vote, and then lying to the audience to make them angry that the waiver hadn’t happened.

Posted in Disaster, Iraq, Obama, Politics | 18 Replies

Debate thread

The New Neo Posted on October 3, 2012 by neoOctober 3, 2012

Tonight’s the first debate, in case you’ve been marooned on planet Xenon and have just returned.

You can discuss it here.

I’m nervous; I hate debates.

[ADDENDUM: Very good article here (hat tip: Artfldgr). The author’s website is here. I don’t have time to take a look at it right now, but it seems potentially extremely interesting, and ties in with discussions we’ve had here recently about trying to stem the Gramscian tide.]

Posted in Election 2012 | 15 Replies

Poll on the size of government

The New Neo Posted on October 3, 2012 by neoOctober 3, 2012

This might be encouraging news, depending on how you interpret it:

According to the survey, just four in 10 registered voters believe the government should promote traditional values, down from 53% in 2010 and 57% in 2008…

Six in 10 say the government is doing too much that should be left to individuals and businesses.

The article says the first response could favor Democrats, and I suppose this could be true if the Republican in question is a Sanotrum-type social con. It also says that the second response would favor Republicans.

But it’s also possible that both responses express a libertarian point of view.

It’s also hard to see how the results could square with support of Obama, who is nothing if not for big government. But it would depend on how many people see Romney as supporting the idea that “government should promote traditional values.” I would say he’s more in favor of the notion that government shouldn’t interfere with traditional values—but hey, that’s just me.

Posted in Election 2012, Liberals and conservatives; left and right | 4 Replies

The potential significance of the 2007 Obama Hampton video…

The New Neo Posted on October 3, 2012 by neoOctober 3, 2012

…is that it shows Obama misrepresenting facts to a black audience in order to stir up racial resentment.

But like so many other things that Obama has said and done that belie the image he has carefully cultivated of “we’re all in this thing together” reasonableness, it will be ignored and/or dismissed by the MSM, and its messengers will be the ones accused of racism.

The problematic remarks are here:

Now here’s the thing, when 9/11 happened in New York City, they waived the Stafford Act ”” said, ”˜This is too serious a problem. We can’t expect New York City to rebuild on its own. Forget that dollar you got to put in. Well, here’s 10 dollars.’ And that was the right thing to do. When Hurricane Andrew struck in Florida, people said, ”˜Look at this devastation. We don’t expect you to come up with y’own money, here. Here’s the money to rebuild. We’re not going to wait for you to scratch it together ”” because you’re part of the American family.’ ”¦ What’s happening down in New Orleans? Where’s your dollar? Where’s your Stafford Act money? Makes no sense. Tells me that somehow, the people down in New Orleans they don’t care about as much.”

But just weeks before Obama gave this speech, the Stafford Act had been waived by Congress for Katrina relief. Obama, you may recall, was a member of Congress, and knew or should have known this [emphasis mine]:

by January 2007, six months before Obama’s Hampton speech, the federal government had sent at least $110 billion to areas damaged by Katrina. This was more than five times the money that the Bush administration pledged to New York City after 9/11.

Moreover, says the DC, the federal government did at times waive the Stafford Act during its New Orleans reconstruction efforts. On May 25, 2007, just weeks before Obama’s speech, the Bush administration sent an additional $6.9 billion to Katrina-affected areas with no strings attached.

So when Obama asks the crowd, “Where’s your dollar? Where’s your Stafford Act money?” he knew or should have known the answer, but chose instead to whip the audience up into (yes, there’s no other way to put it) the sort of victimization mentality that Mitt Romney was talking about in his notorious 47% speech.

To be fair (which I always try to be), in his Hampton speech Obama also explicitly disavowed the idea that race had anything to do with the federal government’s policies that he alleges were discriminatory against New Orleans. This, I think, is a fascinating demonstration of Obama’s remarkable ability to talk out of both sides of his mouth on this and so many other issues—to pander to racial resentment while simultaneously denying he’s doing so, and to ignore the contradictions and hope his audience will do so as well.

So in the same speech Obama also stated:

People ask me whether I thought race was the reason the response was so slow,” Obama said. “I said, ”˜No. This Administration was colorblind in its incompetence.’ But everyone here knows the disaster and the poverty happened long before that hurricane hit.

I’ve been having difficulty getting a transcript of his remarks that includes the off-script ones (that’s where the controversy lay), although I assume one exists. So I’m not sure which came first, the accusations or the disclaimer. But the explanation for the contradiction is that the accusations were ad-libbed whereas the disclaimer was scripted (here’s the text of his prepared remarks, which in general have a loftier tone than his spontaneous ones).

In general it’s true that extemporaneous declarations are much more likely to be heartfelt expressions than written ones would be. But in Obama’s case I’m not sure that either represent his true feelings and his true thoughts. I think his entire public persona is a series of masks adopted for purely pragmatic and strategic reasons.

That’s the significance of the accent so many people have remarked on that Obama uses for this speech, one that he often adopts when addressing largely black audiences. It is just another mask. That sort of phoniness doesn’t concern me nearly as much the content of his words, and especially his actions as president, which concern me most of all. I see the adoption of this accent as a response to the biggest defeat of Obama’s life, the 2000 Chicago primary race in which Bobby Rush trounced Obama by flashing his own superior black credentials:

Rush portrayed Obama, the Harvard-educated civil rights lecturer at the University of Chicago, as out of touch.

“He went to Harvard and became an educated fool,” Rush said then in an interview with the alternative newspaper Chicago Reader. “We’re not impressed with these folks with these Eastern elite degrees.”

Another opponent, state Sen. Donne Trotter, said Obama was seen as “the white man in blackface.”…

Chicago City Council member Toni Preckwinkle, an early Obama supporter, said, “I think he took a hard look at himself after that campaign and became a much better campaigner, more at ease on the campaign trail.”

That “long hard look” almost undoubtedly included a change to a more ethnic and less professorial type of speech when campaigning in front of black audiences. Not really a surprise.

I don’t think this video is some sort of unprecedented smoking gun. People who would be shocked by it just haven’t been paying much attention, and there’s no reason to believe they’d start paying attention now. I also think that most people have already bought the line that Katrina relief was inadequate, and so Obama’s charges will have a certain amount of resonance with them. A person needs to know some boring facts (such as the timing of the waiver of the Stafford Act for Katrina) to understand why his remarks were offensive.

It’s an interesting prelude to the debate tonight, though. Perhaps the biggest effect it might have would be to rattle Obama and put him a bit off his game. We’ll see.

Posted in Disaster, Election 2012, Obama, Race and racism | 24 Replies

And now Reuters…

The New Neo Posted on October 3, 2012 by neoOctober 3, 2012

…joins the crew of media outlets on the left that seems to be willing to report some of the truth about the Benghazi attacks and the administration coverup that has followed.

As I’ve written before, something about this incident has motivated some MSM sources usually in the administration’s pocket to go against the tide. I’m not sure why, although I’ve speculated that it may be because they know most people don’t care enough about it to change their vote. But if you have any other and better ideas, please feel free to voice them here.

Posted in Middle East, Press | 6 Replies

Holocaust remembrance tattoos

The New Neo Posted on October 2, 2012 by neoOctober 2, 2012

This describes a pretty ghastly, though thankfully rare, way that a some descendents of Holocaust survivors are paying tribute to their aging relatives: having the elderly survivors’ camp numbers tattooed on their own arms.

The 10 tattooed descendants interviewed for this article echoed one another’s motivations: they wanted to be intimately, eternally bonded to their survivor-relative. And they wanted to live the mantra “Never forget” with something that would constantly provoke questions and conversation.

It seems repellent and almost ghoulish, a form of histrionic appropriation of another’s suffering (and also a violation of the Jewish prohibition on tattooing the body), although on reading the entire article I could also see it as a form of love, and a desire to not let the world forget. But the world will forget—in fact, a great deal of the world has already forgotten, or never was outraged by the Holocaust in the first place.

And the Nazis knew that this would happen. I remember reading several books about the Holocaust—including, if I recall correctly, Primo Levi’s masterpiece Survival in Aushwitz, which I highly recommend—that mentioned that one of the ways the Nazis running the camps used to torture the inmates was through constant reminders that in the unlikely event the prisoners managed to survive, no one would ever believe their story, or care.

One of the tattooed young people says that among the comments she’s gotten is “a man who called her ‘pathetic,’ saying of her grandfather, ‘You’re trying to be him and take his suffering.'” I don’t know what the man who said that was thinking, but it struck me that he could have been using the word “pathetic” not in a negative sense, but in a more archaic way, as in the expression “pathetic fallacy”:

The pathetic fallacy is the treatment of inanimate objects as if they had human feelings, thought, or sensations. The word ‘pathetic’ in this use is related to ‘pathos’ or ’empathy’ (capability of feeling), and is not pejorative. In the discussion of literature, the pathetic fallacy is similar to personification.

So yes, her tattoo is “pathetic” in the sense of empathic. And “You’re trying to be him and take his suffering” is merely descriptive.

It’s not possible to do so, of course. History moves on, the Holocaust generation will die out, and young people cannot appropriate what was not their experience, despite their love for their relatives and their fears for the future.

Posted in History, Israel/Palestine, Jews | 29 Replies

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