Let me begin by stating my point of view. I’m with commenter “Harold,” who writes:
Not only should Republicans break the filibuster, they should break, bend, ignore every rule and tradition in the Senate. Republicans don’t seem to get that they are in an Alinsky jam here. The Democrats are making them live up to their fine old rules while the Democrats live by power and power alone.
As soon as the Democrats ended the filibuster for judicial appointments, arguments for Republicans to retain it became weak, because the reason for keeping it was always to protect one’s own minority rights when the time came. This required that both parties support the rule, knowing that someday it would be their turn to benefit from it (when they were in the minority) and another day it would be their turn to be stymied by it (when they were in the majority but not the supermajority). Respect for the rule also required a modicum of compromise from whatever the minority party du jour might be if Congress wanted to get any work done at all. But that sort of thing ended a while ago, too.
So there is no longer any reason to uphold something I always had defended. Now the situation is such that Republicans are fighting a battle where the implicit rules of the game have changed. As “Harold” puts it, they are in an Alinsky jam here. And they better study up on their Alinsky or they’re going to be in huge trouble (they already are in trouble, actually). But I don’t think most of them have the temperament, or perhaps even the interest, to go bold.
However, let’s not pretend that the jam they face is one in which there’s a simple way out. There may not even be a way out at all, although there are ways that could offer at least a chance of an out. But the difficulty of the situation is why I not only am very frustrated with the Republican leaders (and some others) in Congress, I also am frustrated with people who say that it is obvious what they should do and that it surely would be successful. That is wishful thinking of the highest order—although I may agree with those people on the fact that the GOP should do it anyway.
Right after the election of 2014 there was a brief surge of joy among many on the right about a campaign hard fought and won. But then reality set in, a reality of which many of those same people had also been previously aware. It had long been clear that Obama and the Democrats would do whatever it took, and that a supermajority would have been needed to have had a really good chance of stopping them. Even had the GOP gotten a supermajority (and there was never any real chance of that happening in 2014) I believe that Obama would have just bypassed Congress even more and done exactly what he wanted. Defunding would, however, have been easier to accomplish.
But absent a Republican supermajority, Obama and Reid can continue to call the shots. Obama signaled right after the 2014 election that the Democrats’ loss meant nothing to him, and that he was perfectly willing to bypass Congress. As for the future, if the presidency is really a lock for Democrats from now on because of the Electoral College picture (I don’t believe this theory, but I’ve read many analyses that espouse it), and future Democratic presidents and Democratic members of Congress are willing to follow in Obama’s and Reid’s footsteps in terms of power and ruthlessness, the only conclusion I can come to is that Republican majorities in Congress will never matter much unless they are supermajorities, and that showdown after showdown (and shutdown after shutdown) would be the name of the game.
So what power does the current Republican Congress have? Why even bother to have elected them? One obvious reason is that they stop affirmatively Democratic legislation (such as Obamacare) from being passed. Congress was already Republican enough after the election of 2010 to have been doing that, of course, even when they didn’t have the Senate, because they had at least 40 votes there. Now they have a significant majority of the Senate, but little has changed in actuality because they still don’t have the 60 Senate seats to force cloture, nor do they have the needed 2/3 to override a presidential veto. So their power to pass affirmatively Republican legislation in the Senate continues to be to reduced.
That means that unless they can get a significant number of Democrats to cross party lines (good luck with that) they are limited to either (1) passing less controversial bills where they can get six Democratic senators to join, as with Keystone; or (2) ending the filibuster, in which case they can pass bills galore but can’t make them stick because of the veto problem and the lack of votes to override. But at least they could highlight Obama’s obstructionism as they pass—and he vetoes—bill and bill after bill.
To recap: they can impeach but not convict. They can pass bills in the House that can’t get through the Senate, or that can get through the Senate but not get past the veto. They can…they can…what? They can decline to fund important parts of government, and try to bully the Democrats and Obama into blinking, but Obama rests secure in the fact that the public will be manipulated by the press into blaming Republican “obstructionism” for any lack of funding. That doesn’t mean the Republicans shouldn’t do it anyway, but it does mean they run an excellent chance of taking the hit for it rather than Obama and the Democrats.
That’s the situation we have now. If Republicans don’t have the courage (or foolhardiness—take your pick) to act in this extreme way, it will be up to the courts to stop things, be it Obamacare subsidies or amnesty. Both issues have cases pending. At this point I’m willing to say that the current case pending in Texas about amnesty is one of the most important ones the courts (and ultimately it may be the Supreme Court) have ever faced. The lower court’s decision was based on very narrow grounds, but that was just an injunction and not the final word, which will almost certainly be decided on larger constitutional grounds by higher courts.
That’s one of the reasons I’ve always emphasized how crucial court appointments are. Of course, there’s always the possibility that Obama would defy the courts if the decision were to go against him. Would Obama do that? I have come to think the answer is “yes.” He would do it either overtly, or covertly if possible.
[NOTE: So, if the Democrats wouldn’t hesitate to end the filibuster if they needed to, why didn’t they do it in order to pass Obamacare? The answer is they didn’t need to; with the “creative” use of reconciliation, they passed it despite the election of Scott Brown that was specifically aimed at giving the Republicans the requisite 40 votes to stop Obamacare.]

