Scott Johnson at Powerline alerts readers to news on the current state of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, pointing to this AP article as well as this piece by David Horovitz at The Times of Israel.
The AP article is awfully ho-hum about it all, considering how high the stakes are. For example, the headline is “Historic US-Iran nuclear deal could be taking shape,” which doesn’t say a thing about good, bad, or indifferent. The article goes on with the usual back-and-forth between those who laud the potential agreement and its critics, but expresses no real sense of alarm (except for Israel’s alarm). It’s got quotes like these in it to appeal to those predisposed to trust the administration:
Still, a comprehensive pact could ease 35 years of U.S-Iranian enmity ”” and seems within reach for the first time in more than a decade of negotiations.
“We made progress,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said as he bade farewell to members of the American delegation at the table with Iran. More discussions between Iran and the six nations engaging it were set for next Monday, a senior U.S. official said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the sides found “a better understanding” at the negotiating table.
The tone of the article seems to be that the pending deal represents a balance of competing interests between two sides presumed to be negotiating at least somewhat in good faith (a preposterous notion in terms of Iran’s rulers, and suspect as well for this administration):
Iran says it does not want nuclear arms and needs enrichment only for energy, medical and scientific purposes, but the U.S. fears Tehran could re-engineer the program to produce the fissile core of a nuclear weapon.
The U.S. initially sought restrictions lasting up to 20 years; Iran has pushed for less than a decade. The prospective deal appears to be somewhere in the middle.
It ends on a note of optimism about the talks, and sympathy for Iran:
Daryl Kimball of the Washington-based Arms Control Association said that with the IAEA’s additional monitoring, the deal taking shape leaves “more than enough time to detect and disrupt any effort to pursue nuclear weapons in the future.”
In exchange, Iran wants relief from sanctions crippling its economy and the U.S. is talking about phasing in such measures.
Now let’s take a look at what the Horovitz article has to say. He observes that, although the Obama administration has been engaged in denying Israeli rumors of what might be in the agreement and accusing Israel of “misrepresenting the specifics for narrow political ends,” the pending agreement that the AP article describes not only contains many of the things Israel has been complaining about, but is even worse than previously thought. According to Israel’s “most respected Middle East affairs analyst,” Ehud Ya’ari, the deal would be likely to have some catastrophic consequences:
In his TV commentary on Monday night, Ya’ari highlighted that the deal could further embolden Iran as it expands its influence throughout this region, and he noted that the isolation of Iran even by Israel’s key allies was already cracking, with the firmly pro-Israel foreign minister of Australia, Julie Bishop, announcing an imminent visit to Tehran ”” the first Australian foreign minister to make such a trip in a decade.
Ya’ari also noted that the International Atomic Energy Agency has made clear that it lacks the tools to effectively monitor the kind of nuclear program that Iran will be allowed to maintain under the emerging deal ”” incapable, that is, of ensuring that Iran does not fool the West as it has done in the past.
The devil of such deals is generally in the detail. But the devil, here, is in the principle as well ”” the principle that the P5+1 is about to legitimize Iran as a nuclear threshold state. From there, it will be capable of rapidly breaking out to the bomb, well aware that the international community lacks the will to stop it…
…[I]f the deal now taking shape is indeed finalized, the chances of the regime being ousted from within, or effectively confronted from without, will drastically recede. This deal, indeed, will help cement the ayatollahs in power, with dire consequences for Israel, relatively moderate Arab states, and the free world.
Elections have consequences, and Obama’s election in 2012 has already had some mighty big ones.
The only consolation I can find is one that was pointed out several times in the comment section at the Powerline article, which is that Obama will never bring this to Congress to be ratified because he knows it’s highly unlikely to get Congressional approval. Although the deal wouldn’t require ratification because it’s not necessarily a treaty, as a non-treaty it probably would not be binding on a future president.
I said that was the only consolation, and I’ll add that it’s very scant consolation. Even if America’s next president ultimately goes back on the Iranian deal, Obama has shown the entire world that America no longer can be counted on to have a reliable and consistent foreign policy, even in such an important and basic matter. That sets a terrible, terrible precedent, even if the US (and Israel, and the world) ultimately dodge this particular Iranian bullet.
Anyone who has paid attention to Obama over the years can’t help but notice that his m.o. is to act unilaterally, in “historic” and sweeping ways, against public opinion, in order to get something into place as quickly as possible and hope it will become impossible to undo. Another pattern is to delay the worst consequences of the deal for a little while, in order to lull people into a false sense of security until there’s no turning back.
The Iran deal may be following similar patterns. Obama is not asking for approval, the policy change is huge, it has a delayed fuse, and he wants it completed ASAP so it will have been in place as long as possible, and done as much damage as possible, before a successor president is inaugurated who might try to clean up the mess. The longer in place the more entrenched a thing becomes, as Obama is well aware.
In US News and World Report, Harold Evans is if anything even more pessimistic about the deal than Israel’s Ya’ari was:
Look at the record of betrayals of trust that have enabled Iran to operate 19,000 centrifuges and another 1,008 IR2M machines that can produce bomb-grade, fissionable material five times faster than the other centrifuges. Back in 2005, the West was saying to Iran “zero centrifuges.” Let me repeat: zero. Next we were talking of a compromise at 5,000 centrifuges. The negotiations from 2005 and 2013 can be summed up in one word: retreat. A series of capitulations have left Iran with “the right” to enrich uranium, so now it has thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium. That’s enough to produce a bomb, contrary to the Obama administration’s commitment to Congress that it would not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons…
Now the United States seems prepared to make a deal that not only would suspend and ultimately lift the sanctions, but would do so while leaving Iran as a threshold nuclear power. This is the classic definition of a Bad Deal. And worse: Iran is on track to put a nuclear warhead on intercontinental missiles with a range reaching beyond Europe. This puts the whole civilized world at risk of nuclear blackmail but more, it threatens Israel’s very existence.
The American people understand. In a poll conducted late last year, 81 percent said Iran cannot be trusted. So too do many members of Congress from both parties.
Evans reports that many Democrats in Congress “are furious with Obama for ignoring their concerns and for pursuing his obsession to reach a deal with the Iranians at almost any cost,” and that Dennis Ross (a Middle East negotiator for both the Clintona and the Obama administration) “was scathing in his condemnation of the president’s weaknesses and his ongoing concessions to the Iranians.”
Let that sink in; it tells you how extraordinarily awful Obama’s stance must be if Democrats are criticizing it that harshly. But how much of this do we hear in the MSM? And how willing are Democrats in Congress to do anything about any of it? Just watch how many of them support Obama by boycotting Netanyahu’s Congressional talk; I predict it will be a significant number. And if sanctions on Iran ever come to a vote, just watch how many Democrats will be willing to join with the GOP. I bet it’s not enough to override the inevitable presidential veto.
Obama has made this treasonous travesty of an agreement with Iran the international centerpiece of his glittering second term, just as amnesty has been the domestic centerpiece. The latter is all about consolidating the power of Obama and his party, and the former is all about puffing himself up with pride and selling out Israel, the US, and the world to an evil empire. Despite how cynical I have become in recent years, part of me is still stunned that even this wouldn’t be enough to cause enough Democrats to get fired up with apprehension and outrage and finally make an impeachment and conviction of Obama possible. And yet I am virtually certain that will never happen.
I guess the “consolidate power” part overrides all the other considerations.