Chris Cillizza’s article on Walker’s dropping out of the race is entitled “How Donald Trump Destroyed Scott Walker’s Presidential Chances.”
I’m no Trump fan, to say the least. But I beg to differ. I think Trump’s huge popularity and aggressive tone didn’t help, but I think it’s Walker who “destroyed” Walker’s presidential chances. I believe that even if Trump had never been in the race, other candidates would have overshadowed Walker because of that mild-mannered “blandness” factor of his that worried me from the start. Trump’s presence may have (in fact, did) emphasize it because the contrast was great, but the contrast was already present without Trump and I believe it would have always proved fatal.
Cillizza himself seems to somewhat agree:
Walker, despite his relative prime position on the stage — a vestige of the national polling bump he got after that speech at the Iowa event way back in February — seemed diminished when standing among his rivals for the nomination. And it wasn’t just Trump whose persona towered over Walker; Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie all just seemed — and I know this is a loaded word –more presidential than Walker. In the second debate last week, Walker spoke for the shortest period of time of any candidate on the stage; his campaign complained about the lack of speaking time but part of running for president is being able to butt your way into conversations and making moments. He did neither.
Nice guys often finish last—or in Walker’s case, close to last. That’s not Trump’s fault.
The primary fight is a difficult test that candidates must meet and master in order to compete in the general. Sometimes good people fall by the wayside; actually, they often do. It takes toughness to win, among other things. That’s why Walker was a paradox; he’s shown such tremendous toughness in real life, but somehow in his persona and his rhetoric during the primary campaign he couldn’t make us believe it. And that, more than anything else, is why he’s gone. It’s not just being mild-mannered, either, that did him in; Carson is mild-mannered, but to me he also seems tough, and Walker did not.
As I said, a paradox.
Earlier today, commenter “T” wrote:
IMO this is the (inadvertent) purpose of the Trump campaign. Perry and Walker are out (both of whom had enviable track records). The next will perhaps be Graham, Santorum, Pataki and Jindal.
Fiorina, Carson and Cruz continue to improve. This test of their mettle in the primary system will, I hope, temper them for the real campaign against Clinton or Biden. Trump is forcing the issue and causing opponents to make their mistakes now. What doesn’t “kill” them in the primary makes them stronger in the general election.
Now, the only question is: Can any one of them eventually turn the tables on Trump himself to jump from second, third or fourth place to first place in the polls?
My response is that they don’t have to “turn the tables” on Trump, not exactly. From what I’ve seen, most or at least much of Trump’s support will remain firmly wedded to Trump. The race for Fiorina, Carson, Cruz, and Rubio (I see those four as having the best chance at this point) is against each other, not against Trump.
Trump will be Trump, and he will get his support and probably keep it. He may (accent on the “may”) not get much more support over time, though. His chances of victory in the primaries depend on keeping as many candidates running as possible (in fact, since he’s got so much money, maybe he should donate to his opponents’ campaigns just to keep them in the race).
Their real chance to win is for one of them to emerge above the others, and for more and more candidates to drop out. If one (or even two) candidates can corner the un-Trump vote, that’s the way to win.