The ever-shifting Strait
You really have to check the news hourly to keep up. And even then, the waters are murky.
But here’s what I think may be the latest, which may have been superseded by the time I publish this post:
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on at least two ships in the waters near Oman, after Tehran again moved to close the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, according to a report citing a US official — as President Donald Trump accused Iran of trying to “get cute” while warning the regime “can’t blackmail us.”
Two IRGC gunboats approached a tanker about 20 nautical miles northeast of the Gulf country around 1 p.m. local time — and opened fire unprovoked, the tanker’s master reported, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Organization.
Audio recordings indicate that two Indian vessels were also forced back out of the strait following the gunfire. One of those ships was an Indian-flagged VLCC supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil, according to an X account that tracks maritime travels. …
“They wanted to close up the strait again, as they’ve been doing for years,” Trump said. “They can’t blackmail us.”
He paired that warning with an unexpectedly upbeat readout on diplomacy, saying talks were advancing despite the violence at sea.
“We have very good conversations going on. It’s working out very well,” he said. “They got a little cute, as they have been doing for 47 years. Nobody ever took them on — we took them on.”
Only Trump would say they got a little cute. It’s an almost affectionate putdown of the twisty negotiating tactics of his adversaries.
It seems that there are a host of different factions involved on the Iranian side, acting at cross-purposes and angry at each other – at least, according to this:
I'm almost 100% this is what's happening.
One regime figure had a meltdown and then deleted his X account. Others are calling for Araghchi to be impeached.
Ghalibaf is calling all of Trump's posts lies.
Regimi twitter in absolute shambles. https://t.co/CHNOo6rfei
— ???? ???? ?? ?? (@NiohBerg) April 17, 2026
If the stock market were open, it almost certainly would be going down today. It’s probably fortunate that it’s closed.
Bravo Neo,
They’re fighting amongst themselves.
They certainly are, and coming out from under their rocks to do it.
Time for the Hogs to take flight again.
The guys at the sharp end, those who actually shoot,: can they be sure of their orders?.
Who’s in charge?
Are getting orders carrying out national policy? Which is what, this week?
Or Intermediate command making it up as they go because higher isn’t returning their calls? Or there are two offices claiming to represent national policy? What has Trump said?
“Two IRGC gunboats approached a tanker about 20 nautical miles northeast of the Gulf country around 1 p.m. local time — and opened fire unprovoked, the tanker’s master reported, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Organization.”
If it moves, sink it.
”Two IRGC gunboats approached a tanker about 20 nautical miles northeast of the Gulf country around 1 p.m. local time — and opened fire unprovoked…”
Why are there no Apaches and Warthogs in the air continuously to take care of these boats? Those gunboats should have drawn fire the minute they appeared in the Strait.
”…can they be sure of their orders? Who’s in charge?”
No one is in charge. That’s the point. The regime has fractured and is on the verge of becoming a failed state. We are, at best, negotiating with *one* of the factions. The other factions do what they want.
Doesn’t matter. Sink the gunboats.
An IRGC big shot said the probably foreign minister is insane.
It seems the ship the IRGC fired upon was an India freighter that had an agreement with Iran to pass.
Looking for some more news this morning, and nothing but stale reports from 18 hours ago, except for one thing from CNN which said Trump is sending the team to Pakistan again to talk. Except for report of a Security meeting at the WH yesterday, the administration seems to be taking a very low key reaction to the firing on the Indian ship. If we’re confused, maybe that’s the intention for Iran also.
On the lefty side, they are laughing about how Trump got played by Iran, and he’s an idiot who has no clue what he is doing. Par for the course.
@neo: It seems that there are a host of different factions involved on the Iranian side, acting at cross-purposes and angry at each other
One article I read said that Iran studied the fall of Iraq and Saddam Hussein closely. The Iranians concluded that Iraq’s top-down command structure was too vulnerable, so they set up the IRGCC as multiple units which could operate independently.
I too wonder who Trump’s team is negotiating with. It seems likely there is no central command and that independent groups are doing as they think best.
Therefore the Iranian response is incoherent.
Some reports this morning is the Iranian Foreign Ministry vs the IRGC. Who will win?
The IRGC has more guns.
Speaking of “ever-shifting”, here’s something rather amazing….
“I’M HONESTLY FLABBERGASTED THE ECONOMIST REPORTED A TRUTH”—
https://instapundit.com/790962/
Key blurb:
And “amazing” rears its hoary head again (Spanish edition…)
“Spain’s Last Chance: Could Far-Left Govt’s Mass Legalization Of Migrants Be Blocked By Supreme Court?”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/spains-last-chance-could-far-left-govts-mass-legalization-migrants-be-blocked-supreme
+ Bonus (amazing, Ole Virginny edition):
“Spanberger Signs Unconstitutional Bill To Strip Confederacy-Linked Groups Of Tax Exempt Status”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/spanberger-signs-unconstitutional-bill-strip-confederacy-linked-groups-tax-exempt-status
Kate,
That’s what I was thinking, so why would Trump sign a deal with the FM, when the IRGC is in control? I still think Power Plants and Bridges day is overdue.
Trump wants Iran (whoever, matters not) to surrender to the US all of Iran’s enriched uranium. Trouble is, Mr President, it is stored in underground sites which have bomb-blocked enrances per your command, so Iran cannot cough the uranium up on demand.
Cicero, Doctor Wobbly, has decided to become the Monday morning quarterback for Iran. So sad.
An interesting development: https://x.com/i/status/2045989023978545662
again I wonder how do they know this, are there assets inside the nuclear establishment in Iran, it did happen with a minor figure, amiri, who was compromised by a leak of the intelligence services,
we don’t want to destroy everything because there has to be a support structure for a subsequent regime, we saw what attacks on the power grid, followed by waves of looting did to the legitimacy of the post Saddam regime,
yeah when you can’t trust the iranians to follow through with the deal they made,
its very hard to tell who is in charge, vahidi because of his rank, in the IRGC, gholibaf likewise, even though he wears a civilian hat, one recalls when Rafsanjani, was the speaker,
James angleton’s wilderness of mirrors plays out in these circumstances
@ Kate and physicsguy — Maybe Trump thinks that whatever group he signs with to make peace would gain enough legitimacy to be an acceptable “regime change” that would satisfy the people; the IRGC would lose its own “legitimacy” as a governing group (since its “mandate” came from the Mullahs who are gone); then it would be “treason” for the IRGC to keep operating independently, and they would remain “legitimate” targets of the countries “helping” the “legitimate government” stabilize the situation.
I hope that’s enough “ambiguity quotes” to describe things properly.
Plus Trump doesn’t have to Blow Up Everything in a matter of hours as he has threatened.
That’s good for focusing the minds of Iran’s rulers on the stakes, but I suspect he will start with the bridges and power plants directly supporting the IRGC.
AesopFan: “I hope that’s enough “ambiguity quotes” to describe things properly.”
But why stop there? “”””””””””””””””””””””””…… “”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””