Trump’s message on Kharg Island and the Strait of Hormuz
Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island. Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision. During my First Term, and currently, I rebuilt our Military into the Most Lethal, Powerful, and Effective Force, by far, anywhere in the World. Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it! Iran will NEVER have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States of America, the Middle East or, for that matter, the World! Iran’s Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what’s left of their country, which isn’t much! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
It bears the stamp of his distinctive style. It remains to be seen how it will play out, but for now he has chosen to preserve the country’s oil capacities because its people will need them in the future.
The left and the NeverTrumpers on the “right” (I don’t think they’ve been on the actual right for quite some time, for the most part) have been claiming – among other things – that Trump and his advisors had no plan for the Strait. Tom Cotton has tried to set them – straight:
As Chairman of the Intelligence Committee, let me make clear: whoever leaked this lied. CNN should do some fact-checking. The U.S. has planned for Iran to try to close the strait for decades.
Because the left’s narrative is (among other things) that Trump and his military advisors are hopelessly, abysmally, stupid, they can claim that Trump has never planned for this very obvious thing. And many people will believe it.
Whether the plans will work is quite another thing. I certainly hope they will.
However, I came across this startling bit of history:
While promoting his book The Art of the Deal in the United Kingdom in 1988, Trump discussed U.S.-Iran relations following the 1979 Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis. Mulling hypothetical military actions, Trump told The Guardian at the time, “They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools. One bullet shot at one of our men or ships, and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.”
Seems he has become somewhat more cautious since then. But he was already thinking about the Strait and Kharg Island.
Based on any earlier history, this operation has been incredibly successful. It is hard to see how it will play out, but our thinkers I am sure are constantly monitoring details and deveoping plans.
It will succeed. It will rid the world of Twelver lunatics and result in a wonderful period of peace in that part of the world.
Richard Illyes:
I deeply hope that will come to pass.
Based on the information we have on the amount of enriched uranium that the Islamic regime has in its possession, we have two options– the regime agreeing to independent removal of all uranium from the country or the collapse of the regime with a new government allowing the removal of the uranium.
With or without us, I don’t think Israel will stop their campaign until the regime is gone.
The regime still projects power, and will until suddenly they don’t. Along with the bombing of Kharg Island and disruption of Iran’s ability to continue exporting oil, another major economic event took place.
Recent reports indicate that Israel, in coordination with the US, conducted a missile strike three days ago, that targeted and destroyed the data center of Iran’s state-run Bank Sepah in Tehran. Bank Sepah is responsible for processing salary payments to Iran’s military personnel and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The strike disrupted the bank’s systems, probably preventing it from issuing payments, and given that it hit a data center, it likely involved the destruction or severe compromise of data stored there.
The Islamic Republic could be closer to collapse or coup– possibly weeks or a month.
Here’s Grok’s based on available data (which is based on a lot of speculation/estimates):
None of this will happen until the US/Israel gives the green light, which won’t happen until the Strait of Hormuz is secured, IMO. The fastest way for that to happen is other navies to commit to escorting tankers through the Arabian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The continued threat of drones– both air and sea will likely continue. Ukraine proved the viability of sea drones to attack ships and the nature of drones, which can be fired from any location makes them hard to eradicate completely. Naval ships could render them ineffective.
First, we take Kharg Island,
Then they take Tehran!
Après Leonard Cohen.
At some point, if not already, some general or colonel is going to decide that backing the current regime is a losing proposition. If a group of like minded ones get together, they could pull off a coup.