It’s Election Day here and there
[UPDATE: I put up this post for the results.]
New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia are the highlights – or perhaps lowlights.
Predictions? Reflections? I’ve already written a great deal about the NYC race, so I won’t belabor that prospective train wreck any more. In New Jersey, it seems like the Republican might have a chance, although it’s been a blue state for quite some time. And in Virginia, the polls aren’t looking good for the Republican Earle-Sears in the governor’s race, whereas Republican AG Jason Miyares has a chance against the abominable Jay Jones.
I always pay attention to polls, but for quite a few years now I’ve wondered why. Perhaps it’s because, deeply flawed though they may be, they’re the only predictive instruments we’ve got.
I think Ciattarelli is going to win in New Jersey. And I think Miyares will win the AG race in Virginia.
Furthermore, I think *one* of the other two big races (NYC Mayor and Virginia governor) will result in an upset.
Polls? Don’t cry for me, Argentina! They continue to grow more and more useless
I like how the messiah Obama with his race baiting history campaigned against a black woman.
There’s polls and there’s polls. The “internal” polls that are paid for by politicians to know how they’re really doing seem to be pretty reliable. The polls that are paid for by media to tell us all what we’re supposed to think are another matter.
Nothing is more cringe inducing than some old whack job trying to be “hip” by using the slang current among the young.*
Oh, yes. Couldn’t be prouder of who we have in Congress these days.
P.S. And this purple haired old lady occupies a very key, powerful position in the appropriations process, no less.
* See https://www.youtube.com/shorts/e86vEqrpOq4
Here is Nancy Pilosi calling Trump “a vile creature,” and “the worst thing on the face of the Earth.”*
When Democrat politicians hurl accusations and insults, I always view what they say as projection; a reflection of who and what they themselves are, and what they are actually thinking and doing.
Thus, when $ 400 million ol’ Nancy is bad mouthing Trump, what she is really doing is revealing and talking about herself.
* See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vi0-Bc24UEQ
Media polls are meant to suppress Republican turnout so I pay no attention to them. Here in California, the Democrats spent about $280 million from the government plus untold millions in ads to put on their gerrymandering initiative. As I have mentioned before I voted early, but, if you haven’t, get out your vote. There are also local spending and taxes initiatives on the ballot that are worth voting against.
At least for national elections, the prediction markets seem to be more reliable than the polls published by the mainstream media. It would be interesting if campaigns were required to disclose their internal polls AFTER the election. The we could compare prediction markets, mainstream media polls, and internal polls. Candidates want accurate news–even if it’s bad news.
Bill Glahn, a recent and very welcome addition to the PowerLine lineup, pointed out today that Trump lost both NJ and VA by approximately 6 points last year so even if Democrats unfortunately win those by narrow margins it does not necessarily mean the Dems are gaining ground. His hook is that the MFM is already talking about a Democrat “comeback” should they win those races.
No clue what will happen.
I don’t think most media polls are designed to be biased and suppress Republican turnout. I’m sure it has happened, but very infrequently.
But I do think a good deal of polls are unintentionally biased towards Democrats due to the shy Trump factor (can be extrapolated to shy Republican factor). This is especially true in heavily blue areas. When the MSM, and most of your friends, family, coworkers and acquaintances are all incessantly shouting that Trump is a Nazi and all his supporters are ‘Good Germans’, you’re less inclined to respond to a pollster.
Of course, the poll’s statisticians try to account for this, but I think they are often poor at it.
The more radical the democrat nominee, the more surely the party is sawing off the branch upon which they sit. Electing men & women who hate America is a surefire way for those who voted for them to get what they deserve, “good and hard”. Though little solace for those who were dragged along.
Yet the worse things become, the sooner the time will arrive when the true believers and “useful idiots” will be held accountable for what they enabled. No one voting for a Mamdani can claim that they hadn’t access to fact based counter arguments. Which makes them accomplices in societal destruction. So it’s not just the demagogues who must be held to account. Those who enabled the demagogue bear as much if not more responsibility for without that support, the demagogue is simply a lone, hate-filled voice in a ‘wilderness’ of their own making.
I think Ciattarelli is going to win in New Jersey. And I think Miyares will win the AG race in Virginia.
Unfortunately, Decision Desk has declared both to have lost. Apparently VA is ok with Jay Jones and his child-killing fantasies.
The Democrats will have a resurgence on their way to oblivion.
We are witnessing a party squirming trying anything to survive, but they are going the wat of the Federalists, Mugwumps, and Whigs .
I put up this post for the results.