Iran hits Israel
It was absolutely expected that Iran would retaliate against Israel, and that some of the missiles would get through and cause damage and deaths. And that’s what has happened – eight are dead, twenty missing, and many more wounded as I write this. It’s most assuredly not over, either.
Note that, as in the past, much of the Iranian fire is directed at random civilian targets.
In response, Israel struck a new target in Iran: its all-important oil infrastructure.
Israel struck two fuel depots in Tehran, the Iranian oil ministry said early Sunday morning, shortly after Iran announced the launch of a new wave of strikes against Israel.
The IDF confirmed early Sunday morning striking the Iranian Defense Ministry headquarters as well as the “headquarters of the SPND nuclear project, and additional targets.” Israeli jets also struck fuel depots in the country, the military confirmed, noting that it had completed “an extensive series of strikes on targets in Tehran related to the Iranian regime’s nuclear weapons project.” …
Iranian media earlier reported a “massive explosion” following an Israeli drone strike on the South Pars gas field.
The semi-official Tasnim news agency said production of 12 million cubic meters of gas was suspended following the South Pars attack, which resulted in a fire that the Iranian oil ministry said was later extinguished.
Oil fields — crucial to Iran’s economy — were not targeted in the first round of strikes, but a senior Israeli security official warned on Friday that if Iran were to target Israeli population centers with ballistic missiles — which it then did — Israel would target Iranian regime leaders and state infrastructure such as oil refineries.
Israel has been planning this for years, and apparently it intends an ever-escalating series of attacks as Iran retaliates. I have been thinking that the final step, or one of the final steps, would be the assassination of Khameini, and if this is accurate then that would be the case:
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, the unnamed [Israeli] official said assassination of Iran’s top leader “is not off limits,” underlining a dramatic escalation in Israel’s strategic posture.
Bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities sets back Iran’s nuclear program – but only temporarily. Regime change is the ultimate goal.
Some further information here, though with some overlap:
“Trump Rejects Netanyahu’s Request To Join War, As Israel Needs Large US Bunker Buster Bombs”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-proclaims-total-air-superiority-over-iranian-capital-area-war-intensifies
There are reports of about 10 percent of over 250 Iranian missiles/drones were able to get through.
Correction:
That should be “…about 10 percent of over 250 Iranian ballistic missiles were able to get through.”
From a recent ZAKA report:
I read that a top Iranian general, Esmail, is now safe in Israel after being an agent against Quds.
Sorry no link. (Maybe Nate? Thanks for last time.)
Greetings from Israel.
Like many of our peers we are hosting DIL and grandchildren as 2 of our sons have been called up for reserve duty.
Everyone bought extra milk and eggs on Friday but there are no shortages and no lines at the gas stations.
Schools, synagogue, and public gatherings are prohibited.
Friday night the sirens and barrages started just as we finished dinner. Eventually we pulled mattresses into the bomb shelter and (tried) to put the kids to sleep there, to avoid the mad dash to tbe shelter.
We had a zombie Saturday. Everyone in turn conked out on the sofa. There were several meltdown tantrums (no adults…).
Our house shares a large paved motor court, so the kids could play while staying close to the shelter.
Saturday night was much calmer, with one siren in the wee hours of the morning. We still see and hear the interceptions in neighboring areas.
The current regime is just the proximate cause – Islam is the implacable problem. Liberal, modernizing regimes like Turkey, Lebanon, and Morrocco are always on borrowed time.
Getting to socialize a lot with our neighbors in the building’s bomb shelter…
Tom Grey, I saw a tweet about Qaani being an Israeli agent, but assumed it was trolling. I haven’t seen that report in any news site I follow.
Its not a crazy notion asghari a leading vevak operative was hired by the cia even after his part in the beirut bombings he provided the info about the 2007 nie on iran which deceived their progress but hes probably dead (quani is)
Islam is the implacable problem.
==
I’ll offer a counterpoint and say that revanchism is the generative problem. The question is whether or not Islam is a generator of revanchism above and beyond what is modal for cultural systems.
Luttwak:
“Why Israel had no choice; “Tehran endangers the whole Middle East”—
https://unherd.com/2025/06/why-israel-had-no-choice/?us=1
H/T Powerline blog.
+ Bonus:
Overview this far
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/israel-strikes-iran-initial-assessments-washington-institute-experts
Another excellent reason for Israel’s attacks:
__________________________________
PM: Iran planned to give its proxies nuclear bombs.
Netanyahu said Saturday in an English-language video statement that Tehran didn’t just want to build a nuclear bomb for itself, but rather “was planning to give the nuclear weapons that they would develop to their terrorist proxies.”this
“That’s nuclear terrorism on steroids. That would threaten the entire world,” he said.
But due to Israel’s attacks, Netanyahu said, “senior Iranian leaders are already packing their bags. They sense what’s coming.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-jets-strike-tehran-oil-fields-as-pm-vows-to-hit-every-target-in-irans-regime/
__________________________________
Can you imagine a world in which not only Iran, but Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis had nuclear weapons?
Israel is doing the entire world a favor. Gratitude is owed, but I doubt will be forthcoming.
yes, but as with Osirak 44 years ago, they are ungrateful, would the Iranians hand over such a valuable prize, well I wouldn’t risk it, I was reading about the Harpoon taskforce that the IDF intelligence and mossad used to target the finances of first Fatah and later PIJ and Hamas,
the hero of the story was the late Meir Dagan who started with IDF’s leading units and transitioned to the directorship of the Mossad,
it is left unnoted here he was a long time opponent of Netanyahu on striking Iran and was the emeritus figure behind Black Cube, the Deep State security contractor,
but the detective work they conducted to unravel Arafat and Hezbollahs dodgy finances reads like a real life spy thriller by Shamuel Katz and one of the prosecutors who worked those cases
Nirza Katzner,
unsurprisingly State Department was largely opposed to any of this, they haven’t changed their attitude since 1947
Ilana is certainly right to be cautious about any spy news.
Any spy news can be lie news (just thought of this), wasn’t there a recent report that Trump was publicly opposed to a strike?
Whether true or false, the Iranian leaders will likely increase loyalty oaths & demonstrations, while decreasing trust between generals.
Generals who do regime change better than anyone,
Tho I’m pretty sure Trump wants an end to nuke development the most, and would accept a Jew hating Iran that was not developing nukes. He’d have no problem with any regime change that leads to no nukes, too.
Given awful uncertainties regarding where Iranian ballistic missiles hit the ground when — happily, infrequently — they do hit the ground, what, one may wonder, what will happen if an Iranian missile offtracks and hits (just suppose!) the Dome of the Rock?
Ah, but this won’t happen, for Allah forbids!
Sure? Ha.
Apparently, the last Houthi strike hit the area of Hebron.
(Oops…)
Never mind.
If the Temple Mount is hit, it will still be Israel’s fault.
First of all, Israel’s not even supposed to exist.
Second, the destruction will, by definition, HAVE TO HAVE BEEN CAUSED by Israel.
Third, we’re not exactly talking about paragons of taking responsibility…
Fourth (bonus), the world-wide reaction will be ferocious. Rabid. Feral.
(Wonder if the Iranians, fully aware of this last “feature”, will target it!)
Tom Grey, the problem is that a Jew-hating Iran is also an America-hating Iran.
While the ostensible subject of this link is a bit on the hackneyed side—yawn (who really cares?)—there IS an interesting conjecture to be made at its conclusion:
“What the Hell Happened to Tucker Carlson?”—
https://pjmedia.com/scott-pinsker/2025/06/15/what-the-hell-happened-to-tucker-carlson-n4940820
H/T Instapundit
[Emphasis mine; Barry M.]
I wasn’t aware of this last.
Continued from above:
…In fact, it’s the first time I’ve heard of these phone calls—(Hey, Vlad man, how ya’ doin’?)
If true, could it mean, no matter how improbable it sounds, that some kind of quid pro quo MIGHT be in the works between the Israel-Iran “kinetic action” and that of Ukraine-Russia?
IOW, “Let’s make a deal”?
IMPROBABLE.
NOT LIKELY…especially since there is quite a bit of unfinished business in the case of Israel-Iran (cf. Fordow)…but, but, but…
IMPOSSIBLE??
File under: “The Art of the Deal” (Sun Tzu’s long lost epilogue…finally discovered, recently, in newly-found vaults in the Forbidden City…)
“Israel is doing the entire world a favor. Gratitude is owed, but I doubt will be forthcoming.”
I recall a cartoon from right after Israel bombed Iraq’s reactor in 1981.
First panel – a bunch of striped-pants diplomats tut-tutting “We condemn the unprovoked Israeli attack on Iraq”.
Second panel – they are all behind closed doors mopping their brows, “Whew, that was a close one”
I have been searching for it but can’t find it, it definitely sticks in my mind though!
Here’s a good Fox News interview of Netanyahu.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceEoIbNTJHw
I’m quite impressed with Netanyahu. I can’t address the internal politics of Israel, which seem ambivalent about Netanyahu, but he is at least a great war-time consigliere — to put it into Godfather terms.
In fact I’ve seen a proto-meme on the internet that Israel is now settling all family business, Corleone style.
–“The Godfather — Today I settle all family business”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjY4tx4ZTJc
after october 7th, it was a little like the hit on don vito, you don’t do that, it makes one wonder are the S 200s that Putin sold the Iranians worth the candle, they don’t seem to have worked terribly well, maybe unit 8200 took them out of commission,
the medium range missiles seem to have been more effective, so far so good,
so the latest barium meal, is that Trump opposes the removal of the Ayatollah, coming from unnamed sources, the same ones that told us, that Trump opposed taking out the nuclear facilities as well, more gellman syndrome, than say wilderness of mirrors, but it may be true, because his successor could be worse, but the same thing could have been said of Salami (I know the transliteration is entirely different,)
but its ironic, of course the regime will still find a way to kill innocent civilians much like Saddams did in 1991, (its their bag, baby as Austin Powers would say)
where do we go from here, is the operative level where on the escalation ladder to they go, do they target our forward bases, in Bahrain and Qatar, for example
do they try again for AbQuaiq as they did in 2019, do they try to close the straits,
Hmm.
Looks like I wuz scooped…
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/iran-israel-war/2025/06/15/id/1215045/
Oh well…
(So when does the betting start…?)
hope springs eternal,
https://x.com/ArchRose90/status/1933991098226995581?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
its counterintuitive, the way eastern europe is more aware then the gullible west,
but we thought that of Iraq, the more secular of the peoples republics and we still do about Syria,
Bunker busters are nice, but the IAF supposedly doesn’t have an aircraft to carry them.
On the other hand, a five hundred pounder down the elevator shaft–speaking generically–will make the underground facility unusable for some time. Repairs would be visible and….someplace there must be another five hundred pounder around.
Not optimal, but various other options exist.
@Richard Aubrey: On the other hand, a five hundred pounder down the elevator shaft–speaking generically–will make the underground facility unusable for some time.
I’ve wondered that too. It would seem to require a commando raid. I’m sure the IAF, IDF and Mossad are considering some interesting options.
another trick was in Robert Littells’ once and future spy, the lead characters are investigating an secret operation, carried out by their spymaster silas sibley, at the end of the story we discover it’s targeted at an iranian nuclear facility, I’ll leave out the mechanism
Wikipedia on our newest 5000 pound bunker buster GBU-72. Says Israelis can use them.
“ No official data is available for how deep the GBU-72 can penetrate before exploding, although the weapon’s program manager has been quoted as saying “lethality [of the GBU-72] is expected to be substantially higher compared to similar legacy weapons like the GBU-28”.[1][2] The capabilities of the later versions of the GBU-28 remain classified, but the earliest versions could reportedly penetrate 150 ft (46 m) of earth and over 15 ft (4.6 m) of reinforced concrete.[3]
The US Air Force’s B-1Bs and F-15Es are capable of deploying the GBU-72, along with the Israeli Air Force’s F-15Is.[2][4]”
huxley. If you can get grunts on the site, a couple of thermite grenades would do the trick. But if you’re going to go for the drama, a five hundred pound bomb dropped from, say, nought plus nine feet would be nice.
Chases Eagles. Thanks for the info. The F15 can lift a lot, but…that’s really cool. Probably get off with enough gas to go around the field twice while laboring up to some version of speed and then hitting a tanker,
Compounding the problem of reaching facilities that are deeper underground than the rated range of our bunker buster bombs is the development of Ultra High Performance Concrete.
I read it will take multiple direct hits with bombs like the GBU-57 to reach the facilities.
Super concrete shielding Iranian nukes?
https://www.machinedesign.com/markets/defense/article/21833836/super-concrete-shielding-iranian-nukes
Trump hasn’t ruled out supporting Israel with direct military support such as the stealth bombers stationed nearby with bunkerbusters. That may indeed be the endgame. (Personally, I want to see those underground sites busted.)
However, since Israel has full air superiority and Iran is helpless, Israel can keep attacking as long as it wants. Who knows what opportunities, such as regime change, may occur in the meantime.
No one is coming to Iran’s aid. From what I can tell most Arab countries are secretly relieved to see Iran defanged.
Time is not on Iran’s side.
The Syrian head of gov AlShaara has declared Syria’s skies open to the interception of Iranian drones, cruise missiles etc. (Not that there’s much Syrian air defense could do to prevent it anyway!)
This openness, a public declaration, actually triggers in me an incautious speculation, to wit: it may one day come to light I think, that Syria has turned a blind eye to Israeli use of some eastern Syrian airbase as a forward operating station, allowing refueling and a further reach into Iran than would otherwise be the case. Somewhere out there in the deserts, I reckon, Israel has made itself a temporary refuge and a boon. Maybe. There is no evidence, of course. But then, how could there be if it were to come to pass?
Idle speculation, that’s all it is.
BenDavid and Llana, thanks for checking in, I appreciate the view from the ground and glad you are safe.
https://x.com/DruzeSaher32/status/1934363834845946198
From Barry’s Newsmax link:
“[Trump saying] we will have peace, soon, between Israel and Iran!”
Now the only way that can happen is with regime change in Iran. Trump knows that. And so do the mullahs.
You can’t guarantee an air defense system is perfect. Best you can do is have overlapping assets for each potential target.
But some will get through.
Question is whether the IDF figured on the current rate of leakage, and whether some lesser rate was publicly warned.