Venezuela post-Maduro
Rubio address the situation in Venezuela:
Speaking in an interview that aired Saturday on Fox News’ My View with Lara Trump, Rubio said the United States never viewed Maduro’s capture as the end of Venezuela’s transition but rather as the beginning of a lengthy rebuilding process after more than a quarter century of authoritarian rule.
“A system that’s been in place for over a quarter century… those are deep roots that you have to deal with,” Rubio said. “We’ve always talked about phase one, where our priority was stabilization. We didn’t want the country devolving into civil war, mass migration, civil unrest and so forth.” Rubio said the administration believes Venezuela has now entered the second stage of that strategy, focused on economic recovery, although he acknowledged that the devastating June 24 earthquakes have complicated the effort.
Only after those objectives are met, Rubio said, should Venezuela move toward democratic elections. “Ultimately, you have to have transition,” he said. “At some point in time, there has to be legitimate elections at every level so that people know that the government that’s there is a legitimate government chosen by their people.” Rubio added that national reconciliation would be the first prerequisite for that transition, arguing that Venezuelans have remained politically divided for decades and suggesting that post-communist transitions in Eastern Europe offer useful models.
That all sounds quite reasonable to me.
Venezuela has dropped out of the headlines, though. The long hard task of rebuilding a country isn’t the sort of thing that makes sound bites.
The death toll in the earthquake now stands at about 5.5 thousand, according to this article from about a week ago. I’ve tried to find the best figures on the number still missing, and I’ve seen estimates that range from 1,000 to 30,000. That’s quite a gap.
Before Chavez took control, PDVSA was one of the few well-run government-owned oil companies outside of Europe. Back in the day (2004), Chavista-controlled PDVSA claimed that it could ramp Venezuelan oil production up to 4 million barrels a day, up from about 3 million BBL/D.
PDVSA probably could have ramped up production—if not hampered by Chavismo’s doing all it could to kill the golden goose that laid the petroleum eggs. Chavismo believed that it could take money from PDVSA that would have gone for needed activities such as equipment maintenance and drilling, and not harm production. Didn’t turn out as Chavismo hoped. Oh well.
Current production is around 1 million barrels a day. Venezuela has the potential to increase oil production, but it will need more partnerships with foreign oil companies to do so. (It currently has partnership with some, such as Chevron.)
No sane foreign oil company is going to sign any agreement with a Chavista government, given Chavismo’s history of tearing up partnership agreements whenever it was convenient. There need to be elections booting out Chavismo for any foreign oil companies to sign any partnerships with any Venezuelan government.
(In the 1990s, when the oil price was low, Venezuela entered into partnerships with some foreign oil companies.)
Gringo, remember when Trump had a meeting in the White House (early January), after the arrest of Maduro, trying to convince/cajole/bully oil executives into investing in Venezuela.
Apparently he got no takers (without serious reforms in Venezuela). Chevron was already producing about 250,000 bbl/day, so if they’ve ramped up to 1 million, that’s a good thing.
The 1 Million refers to total Venezuelan production, not just Chevron. It appears that total Venezuelan oil production has increased about 150,000 bopd (bbl/day) since Maduro took a plane ride.
Like Iran, Venezuela sells its gasoline in-country at rock bottom prices. A lot gets smuggled out of the country, as a result. I wonder when Venezuela will have a government with the guts to change that.
https://tinyurl.com/VenOil
@ Neo > “I’ve seen estimates that range from 1,000 to 30,000. That’s quite a gap.”
Who puts out what number, and what do they stand to gain from the number they select?
Cynical, much, these days?