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Home » Open thread 9/12/2026

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Open thread 9/12/2026 — 10 Comments

  1. Am getting anxious about my prediction that the GOP wins Congress in 2026 midterm…then saw this:
    Democrats have an 81% chance of winning the House. And then this from same site: Democrats have a 51% chance of controlling the Senate.

    Votehub is new to me — having “formally incorporated on October 7, 2024”. Have been researching GOP & MAGA voters, in regards mainly to the ‘Blinders’ they seem to wear. Knew the DEMs wore them, but maybe I do also (when it comes to predicting that the GOP keeps Congress in these mids)…tho I try to be as impartial as I can. So I decided to actually look into who VoteHub is, instead of just reacting to the number.

    VoteHub reads more like a data shop than a partisan outlet — that’s an impression, not a neutrality certificate. They call themselves independent and nonpartisan. Ad Fontes reportedly puts them near the center, but check the current rating yourself; those move.

    On 2024, their averages landed in the same range as the other major aggregators. I wouldn’t repeat a “within 0.5 points of Silver/538/Split Ticket/NYT” claim without a dated, apples-to-apples comparison. Like most of the industry that cycle, they were working off polls that understated Trump in the contests that mattered.

    They say the rebuilt 2026 averages weight polls by quality and recency. Fine — that doesn’t mean they use the same house-effect rules as another outlet. They publish the method — averages posts and a midterm forecast PDF. Read those instead of assuming it works like Silver’s.

    They skipped a headline 2024 forecast, so the public modeling record is short next to the long-running race-rating shops. 2026 is the first real test of them as a full forecaster. The clean live-call claim is self-reported and too brief to count as a track record.

    Use it as one serious input next to race raters, other averages, and official results. Markets can be a check, not a referee. The scoreboard is after the midterms, not the pre-election probability.

  2. @ IrishOtter49, how many commands can a well trained border collie execute in 30 seconds?
    Up to 30? [allowing for repeats when required, not necessarily different commands].
    How many commands are normally used when these dogs (or your dogs) are in herding or animal protection/ control mode?

    From the video, I would expect that that German Shepard could respond to more commands faster if it was required to do so – a fair amount of “dead air time” in the video, all things considered.

    Certainly agree border collies are amazing dogs.

  3. Sarah Hoyt puts up a large selection of memes every Saturday (supplied by her readers and friends), and I generally don’t post any here as her Substack is easily found (According to Hoyt), but this week she had something that touched on most of Neo’s posts (which see).

    I had a few good ones left over.

    https://accordingtohoyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/nothing_wrong_gooberment_redacted.jpg

    https://accordingtohoyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/1944217650657759232.jpg

    The political memes are always very much on target.
    At least half the memes are nonpolitical, though, and generally quite amusing.

  4. My husband thought the dog’s name was Rush!
    Not sure how useful some of those commands really are. A tried and true Schuzhund I is good enough for me. Tracking, obedience and protection.
    One of mine, bred and trained in Eastern Europe, could ‘disarm’ my son and his friends without a scratch. I guess being more or less colorblind he couldn’t tell the difference between Nerf and real.

  5. Trump slams Zelensky for war tactic claiming Ukrainian leader is ‘hurting the world’ and causing fuel shortage

    I’m done with the Russia lovers — Trump and the MAGA dogma.

    ‘Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia’ … ‘Let him go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel fuel,’ Trump added of the Ukrainian leader … The Ukrainian drone campaign has caused fuel rationing across Russia , despite the country being a key oil and gas exporter. 

    Trump was wrong about Ukraine’s chances and now is trying to save Putin and Russia…AND even blames them for the fuel shortage!?!?!?!?

  6. AesopFan,
    thank you for the graphics from Sarah Hoyt. Some of them really are on target, and show how American liberty has a strong element of “disrespect or skepticism” for our rulers, and a confidence that as sovereign citizens “we can control our own lives, thank you very much!”

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