The Iranian regime says no to a ceasefire
Is anyone on earth surprised at this refusal? I don’t see how they can agree to anything reasonable. They are apocalyptic fanatics who do not care what happens to their people and believe that chaos and destruction will usher in the Mahdi they’ve been waiting for. It’s not a recipe for successful negotiation.
Excerpt:
Iran has rejected the proposal for a temporary ceasefire with the United States, Iranian state news agency IRNA reported on Monday.
According to IRNA, Iran is demanding a complete end to the fighting in the region, along with a protocol to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s response conveyed to mediators consists of 10 clauses, the report noted. “The gaps are very significant,” a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday that would allow traffic to start moving again through the vital route for global energy supplies.
While answering reporter questions outside the White House on Monday, Trump said that the war could end “very quickly” if Iran went along with the deal, adding that the people the US is currently negotiating with were “reasonable and not as radicalized.” He stressed that the Tuesday deadline he has set for Iran to make a deal is final, adding that Iran’s proposal was significant but not good enough.
I suppose it really does depend on the identity of the negotiators. I wouldn’t trust any of them if they’re part of the current regime (and if they’re not, what power would they have to fulfill any promises?). Hard to say what’s going on, but Trump’s deadline is tomorrow night.
Iran’s bravado and defiance is probably sincere if they believe in their own Twelver eschatology. It also plays to the left, as well as other Muslim countries.
I plan to write a longer post on the subject tomorrow.
The most impactful next step is the destruction of the oil terminal at Kharg Island.
“They are apocalyptic fanatics who do not care what happens to their people and believe that chaos and destruction will usher in the Mahdi they’ve been waiting for. It’s not a recipe for successful negotiation.”
From “X” WarMonitor 3 just now:
“The Iranian government is calling on the Iranian youth including athletes, artists, students to gather at 2 PM tomorrow around the country’s power plants.”
Trump should bomb it @ 1:00 PM
and our NATO “Allies”
“BREAKING: Britain is about to ban the US usage of RAF Fairford to bomb energy infrastructure and bridges which it has been using for its strategic bombing strikes on Iran-ipaper”
Notice they don’t talk about calling out volunteers from the IRGC or Basij thugs and pschyopaths to surround the power plants but artists, athletes and students,
Well, good news is when the power plants get bombed the students will have exciting new material for their school essays assuming they make it through. I also hear it’s a great meeting up place to find a spouse!!!
John Galt III:
Those artists, athletes, and students they didn’t already execute back in January.
Anyone who has been in tough negotiations knows one does not “surrender”–or agree to tough terms–until just before the clock strikes.
So, no surprise Iranians have not caved. Caving now will be seen by most Iranians (and Trump) as surrendering. Await tomorrow. They know and we know Iranian power plants and oil refineries can be blown away. A 10 or 15% national energy loss to Iran is not trivial. Survivable but not trivial. Problem is, such moves affect the Iranian people as a whole, and will harden their hearts against outside “oppressors”.
“Problem is, such moves affect the Iranian people as a whole, and will harden their hearts against outside “oppressors”.”
Yes, I distinctly remember all those Germans in Frankfurt, Berlin, Dresden in 1945 just so happy we were bombing their cities, railroads and factories as the Wehrmacht and Waffen SS were running out of just about everything on the Eastern and Western Fronts as they retreated as quickly as they could.
I’m sure, however, as you say their hearts were hardened.
“…They are apocalyptic fanatics who do not care what happens to their people and believe that chaos and destruction will usher in the Mahdi they’ve been waiting for…..”
I don’t think they’ll change their tune, because it would mean a loss of face, and that is something that cannot be suffered in that culture.
I think the strategy so far has been to arrange personal introductions to the 12th Mullah for Iran’s senior leadership on an individual basis, and so far it’s been quite surgically effective. I think they should continue – I see a few new results have been announced today. Eventually they will run out of sympathetic aspirants. I think what will come next will be the deconstruction of the regime’s cash flow.
The news conference today was quite a study in humiliating the enemy using psychologically targeted language.
Well if rue Britannia follows through with that idiocy so ends the relationship, once great. But then Britain ceased to be great or of much good with that Blair doofoos.
King Charlie probably approves wholeheartedly.
Where is our Britt troll of a few months ago, BTW?
I’m sure we all read Instapundit, and I’m sure we all saw the items about the niece and grandniece of Qasem Soleimani and their rather un-Islamic lifestyle.
It not like how they lived was a secret to their relatives, they kept traveling back to Iran even after their green cards. But martyrdom is for the little people.
They apparently went tamely enough to deportation, without actions indicating any desire for martyrdom.
I don’t think its hopeless that someone will want to cut a deal, if they can keep their lifestyle going by doing so.
Good time for Hellas to step forward with an offer for bomber basing to the USAF.
What are the chances of Trump using nukes?
That would certainly be a fit to his character.
“That would certainly be a fit to his character.”
Demonstrating you have no clue. Very efficient.
@LL:That would certainly be a fit to his character.
I must have missed all the other times he used nuclear weapons. Didn’t seem to get much publicity.
If part of the power of the still surviving IRGC “leadership” is their economic connections and control over 30 to 50% of the economy, just what targets are there that are known that would be effective in reducing their individual income and ability to influence their colleagues?
What in the civilian economy can you bomb and have it not be a “war crime”?
Rugs, appliances, autos, buses, trucking (?), selected food or medical supplies (?), entertainment, big box stores, etc.?? Just spit balling here but hopefully someone is providing better targets than all bridges and most power plants or even just the power grid connectivity.
Robert Bryce is definitely against damaging the civilian reliance on power plants, etc., providing three alternative AI created scenarios of the results from such a bombing campaign.
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/tehran-in-the-dark
Our new troll (LL) is particularly risible.
There is always a first time. And “dominance as strategy”
Hope y’all are right and I am wrong.
“Efficient” is as efficient does.
A meme I saw, referring to the Nepo-tolla of course.
Has anything more been heard about his corporeal situation?
https://s3.thehackerblog.com/findthatmeme/e7a36d0f-fc71-4dde-b854-6a483c4aa201.jpeg
Wikipedia has a large article about him, but nothing on his current existence. There was one rumor that he was air-lifted to Russia.
Basically, whoever knows the truth isn’t telling anyone. He’s probably dead or incapable of functioning, in which case he has become the second member of a very select club of elected leaders.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mojtaba_Khamenei
Om, I’m sure you know perfectly well where to go and what to do to yourself, right?
If you can’t say anything not stupid, say nothing.
So: who or what would prevent Trump from trying to end the war Truman-style? A law? Fear of retribution? Christian convictions? A concsience?
Oh well, call me names, snart guy
This is where two views of such things, from the left, get mixed up.
“They’re a different culture. They don’t think as we do. We can’t judge. It’s just as good as ours. Cultures vary. Not for us to judge or expect them to react as we might or think they should.”
“What? They’re doing what? That’s not a rational action, or reaction. It doesn’t make any sense. Must be our fault.”
LL: “If you can’t say anything not stupid, say nothing.”
Your troll name should be LOL
“call me names, snart guy”
Reminding me of the lefty troll on Althouse, “why are you wingnuts so insulting”
LL is particularly ignorant.
Why hasn’t President Trump used nerve gas or biological weapons on the Iranians, that would be a first? Probably, because he is not a leftist or loon, like LL.
Risible.
Om, this is risible indeed. Heck, “ludicrous” is a much better word.
You are not implying the US have been in violation of all those treaties that had banned chemical and biological weapons, are you?
Here is a theory for you: Trump has not used any of those because we have none.
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” says Trump about Iran before he attacks key bridges and energy infrastructure
——————————————
Nah, he’s not evil. He’s just dumb and incapable of keeping his mouth shut
“He’s just dumb and incapable of keeping his mouth shut”
Avoid mirrors, do.
Risible LL are you sure? Can we be trusted not to use other WMDs on the poor persecuted mullahs?
Glad you found a dictionary or the Google/Duck Duck Go look up function. LOL for you.
Risible you are.
The answer to your “question” is not that we don’t have them. Here’s a hint, the left has no limits. Trump is a not of the left.
Iran’s actions demonstrate that Trump was right to take out their IRBM and Nuclear sites to the extent possible.
They’re Twelfther Shia Death Culters who won’t hesitate to kill thousands of their own people.
“Nah, he’s not evil. He’s just dumb and incapable of keeping his mouth shut”
So waking up this morning to find LL. With the above quote he/she reveals themself. That statement is exactly what I have seen from the Ds/leftists I follow for the past year and half. Only they go a step farther and say he is evil because he is dumb. Classic example of taking Trump literally, but not seriously.
Quite boring, LL. we’ve seen it all before.
@LL
Pretty much nonexistent.
There’s a reason why only two nukes have ever been used in war, and they were the very first and used on the Japanese Empire at the end of WWII.
According to whom?
Because to the extent they’d fit Trump’s desire to do big, flashy things and go down in history, they’re even more overridden by Trump’s desire to be a peacemaker and be seen as a liberator. And if he wasn’t willing to use nuclear weapons even on hardened but thoroughly military targets like the reactors during Midnight Hammer, he’s not going to use them now on mixed urban targets where there’d be a massive amount of collateral damage among the people he wants to recruit to overthrow or at least destabilize the regime.
It’s telling that not even Putin – who is by any stretch of the imagination a far worse man, heir to a strategic legacy that treats the use of nukes far more casually than Western doctrine has since the 1950s if not further, and who has been in a war to destroy Ukraine that is existential to his regime – has not used nukes, in spite of exponentially more explicit threatening on that count.
No, no there is not “always a first time.” There wasn’t a first time he used nukes in his first term. There wasn’t a first time Obama used nukes as President, or Biden did, or JFK. Indeed, one of the hidden truths of the world that many never realize is that the realm of possibilities is FILLED by first times that never come.
Suffice it to say I imagine Trump’s wording is calculated so that the threat of WMD use by the US is just barely part of the realm of possibilities that is not explicitly denied, but at the same time isn’t going to happen for the reasons I and others mentioned before and he will instead lean heavier on the use of things like MOABs (remember those? Remember how he used one instead of a nuke on a Taliban base?).
Dominance as strategy does not mean nuking anything. You’re not even grasping at straws.
Again, Vladimir Fucking Putin hasn’t seen fit to drop nukes on Ukraine yet, and he is exponentially more brutal, has exponentially less checks on his power, and is culturally far more at peace with raising the prospect of nukes and other WMD employment.
You have given fuckall reason to believe the use of nukes would fit with Trump’s personality, largely because like I said it really, REALLY isn’t, least of all on an Iran where his ideal outcome would be a mass popular revolution by the public against the Iranian Regime to establish a government that would make peace with or even align with him.
Your read of him is far more like a caricature based on taking a few aspects of his personality, exaggerating them out the wazoo, ignoring the rest (especially those that do not fit this “theory”), and ignoring all practical limits on his power.
Probably. Om is certainly smarter than you are.
And yet, you’ve posted time and again here. So obviously don’t believe in that, or at least you don’t practice what you preach.
You write this idiocy, but you conveniently ignore the fact that Truman only ever ended one war with one great power – Imperial Japan – in this way, and pointedly refused to do so for any other, including and especially the likes of Greece and Korea.
As for who or what would prevent him from using nukes? Well again, the most important block would be Trump and his personality himself, given the facets you “conveniently overlooked” because they don’t fit with the desire to use nukes. I covered these earlier, and I don’t see much point in doing so again.
But beyond that there’s the practicality that Trump is not and never has been absolute dictator, or even a dictator to the extent say Putin or Xi are. He has been impeached multiple times and survived each. But if he nukes Iran without what is seem as abundantly due cause, he will be impeached again and this time probably SUCCESSFULLY, since it would overshadow all over controversy.
The fact that you do not consider this or the basic fact that Trump has expressly been appealing to the Iranian people for help against the regime speaks volumes to your flavor of stupidity and irrational hatred, and I regret dealing with this in the depths I am because it is probably a waste of time.
Yes, starting with the Constitution and its provisions on impeachment.
Yes, especially given how if anything would justify Iran deploying its chemical WMDs or jury rigging a dirty bomb, that would be it. As well as its allies the PRC and Russia, who could point to the threat of cast off or radioactive contamination much as NATO has done to deter the threat of Russia deploying nukes in Ukraine by arguing any radioactive spillover to a NATO country would trigger Article 5.
Maybe, probably not as much.
Yes.
And the fact that you are so stupid, so uninformed on Trump’s character you mockingly quote this, and so blindingly hateful you will ignore his well documented history of generosity speaks volumes. You are acting like a rabid animal – literally rabid – rather than a commentor here, and have taken TDS to levels that few would believe.
It’s stupid, far beyond anything Om has written.
Gladly.
Correct, namely you and your claims are.
We’ve pointedly not adhered to some of the treaties, but we have adhered to most of them, just not deployed on them.
But if anything this EVEN FURTHER UNDERMINES YOUR CASE. Trump has deployed no chemical or biological weapons more severe than tear gas (itself hideously over-lawyered in war) at any point in his term, and probably not at all in previous conflicts he has been CinC of like Afghanistan, the War with Daesh, and the Maduro Caper. All of these logically would hold are more likely to be deployed than freaking Nuclear Weapons, given how we have seen plenty of conflicts with the military deployment of those but none with the deployment of nukes since 1945.
And mean that by extension Trump is almost certainly not going to deploy nuclear weapons in his term, even if his branding and psyops would mean he doesn’t want to explicitly rule it out.
This is a fact you pointedly and stupidly ignore.
Yeah no, that’s retarded even by your standards.
If you knew where to look you’d notice we suffer a steady drumbeat of casualties and crises from containment leaks from the stuff we have in storage “Just in Case” or from research. Usually just a few every year, mostly not too serious but more than enough to show we still have them.
We also have the existence of those stockpiles confirmed by neutral and enemy observers such as the Russians and PRC through international inspectors.
But nice to know you have established you are quite literally deluded.
I note that
A: Contrary to the idiot Cereal Box JAGs and lawyers around, bridges and energy infrastructure can be and in this case are legitimate targets of war.
B: Moreover, that said targets were hit with precision, conventional military strikes, no WMD.
C: Yeah, the “Whole civilization” thing would be stupid if he said it, and I make no defenses for that.
But that’s still a far cry from nuke use.
You say this, yet he was very obviously capable of keeping his mouth shut during the time when the WSO’s fate was in the air, like he kept his mouth shut during the leadup to the Maduro Snatch or to the Hour 1 Ayatollah Annihilation.
So obviously he isn’t so dumb or incapable as your strawman holds.
Turtler:
We need less risible trolls, ones that know ludicrous is a synonym for risible.
Own goal LL. LOL
Too busy to read this yesterday but um just wow. And they vote too. Trump says all kinds of things. I mostly don’t pay any attention. So much chaff. Either definition below applies.
“ Chaff is the dry, papery outer covering of grain seeds, separated and discarded during harvesting. It’s the lightweight material that surrounds kernels of wheat, rice, barley, and other cereal crops, and it has been a byproduct of farming for thousands of years. The word also has a completely separate meaning in military technology, where it refers to tiny metallic fibers released by aircraft to confuse enemy radar. Both meanings share the same core idea: something light and disposable that gets scattered into the air.”
“They are apocalyptic fanatics who do not care what happens to their people and believe that chaos and destruction will usher in the Mahdi they’ve been waiting for.” Neo
This is an important point lost on the Left and the contingent of Christians that really don’t believe in “the Second Coming”. I do. The difference between me and the Christians like me, is that we do not believe that we are to bring about the Apocalypse in order for this event to take place. The Shia Muslims do. (But we have seen very divergent behavior by the mega-wealthy in that sector–so who is really in charge and what do they believe?)
Please don’t feed the trolls.
— Richard Aubrey
There is actually some truth in this, just not the way the Global Left/Establishment usually presents it. We can certainly judge, just as they do. And no, there’s no plausible way both cultures are equally valid.
But the fact that they different cultures think and react differently absolutely is true, and it’s true that judging and predicting ‘them’ based on ‘us’ can run into big trouble fast. It’s a big part of what turned successful military exercises in Afghanistan and Iraq into failures, trying to export Western secular-liberal assumptions into Islamic cultures where they just aren’t compatible with the operating system.
The Western elite class is very, very bad about this tendency to project themselves and their beliefs onto other cultures. They are hyper-secular and have trouble believing that anyone else believes.
Heck, it’s notorious among police and others who deal with violent situations that one of the things that gets people in trouble who aren’t used to such is that they ‘project’ a reaction to what they say or do from themselves onto others, and then get beaten or shot or worse when that other person reacts differently than they thought he would. It can be a big problem with insulated, protected people find themselves in situations that don’t follow civilized norms.
It’s a problem on an individual level and a problem internationally.
Was reading about the “Twelvers” in Iran a few years ago, and one article talked about how one of the Twelver leaders was so convinced of the 12th Imam’s return that he had a house nearby to the well which the 12th Imam was supposed to have climbed down into, and he had a road built, leading from that well directly to his house, so that the 12th Imam would come directly to him.
Twelvers, I understand, believing that only some sort of Apocalyptic event will be sufficient to make that 12th Imam climb out of the well, to reappear.
Thus, it seems to me that these fanatic Twelvers–caring nothing for what it would mean for the general population–would welcome an apocalyptic American bombing campaign.
Trump says all kinds of things. I mostly don’t pay any attention. So much chaff.
Always remember:
Seriously, but not literally.
Turtles
The presumed idea LL projects is that he is open to logic and facts. He is not. The point is to get you to waste time. and energy yelling at nothing
LL deserves mockery and derision (risible) not anger.
Ludacris the rapper?
What Richard Aubrey said.
AppleBetty: “Please don’t feed the trolls”
Hey they may not be getting enough ramen at the boiler room.
Can we send a link to LL for potassium iodide (KI) tablets, a couple pounds, to protect his thyroid from the Iodine-131 that President Trump is sending to him via fallout this evening?
LL:
What you need is some ThyroSafe potassium iodide tablets
Available at Amazon.com for $136 and please use the neo link!
Here’s laughing at ya!
Prime shipping may not beat the fallout plume though.
https://www.amazon.com/ThyroSafe-Potassium-Iodide-130mg-Tablets/dp/B0FPG7VRTW/ref=mp_s_a_1_2_sspa?crid=AU0PWP2OFREE&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.ZKb_fThEaQ2iUm2Nq0foQA7hohXCng8eT1lEyZQAyFBRsn0d0ENphkmpgiiVJjnWcwQL2gQTSknDxFPCyaV3NYJDWiCWflj1tb8OBnYWoQot_urxTyOumZ4xZDBdhUB96DNL7tlfPziAcnkP0iygRwmGdLdug6u0K7RRd2vYDXZ5pfrwYaX7dkcXWtizJS–gs9w7yyfqp-p_uldMzYznA.0U6eQCVaCzd4cp19wTsXfSY6HuBrjvuYIQ8SzwCXEAA&dib_tag=se&keywords=thyrosafe+potassium+iodide+tablets&qid=1775601584&sprefix=ThyroSafe%2Caps%2C1211&sr=8-2-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9waG9uZV9zZWFyY2hfYXRm&psc=1
Niketas Choniates: You mean like Sarah Netanyahu and her ass bandit homosexual son last seen hiding in Florida during the present conflict? Surely Yair Netanyahu should be serving in the IDF blowing up Maronite villages and bulldozing Saint George Statues (+) in Southern Lebanon right now?
+ Both of these things happened in the last 7 days.You won’t read about it here.
So we have a different variety of hater now.
The anti-semites are always “with” us.
MagaMan has been pleasuring himself over Hamas 10/7 snuff videos again.
@MagaMan
So what if they were? The Netanyahus are not avowed enemies of America, nor is Israel. That is the difference. I personally would have no issue with a Solemani family member on US soil any more than I do the “son of Hamas” living on Israeli soil so long as they were legitimate refugees who had condemned the bloodthirsty terror regimes their families furthered and were seeking shelter on a place that IRGC death squads could not reach easily. But that is very obviously not what this bitch was doing. She was loving American luxury in almost equal measure as she loved demonizing Americans and glorying in their deaths.
In contrast the Netanyahus have never advocated for genocidal destruction of the US or its people. Indeed Bibi has proven to be so outspokenly supportive of the US he defied PM Sharon’s attempts to mute both criticism and support of the US in its 2003 strike on Saddam for his support of Al Qaeda. Even if you wish to complain about the wisdom of the Iraq War or whether it should have been done, you do not get to pretend that this was not a personal and political risk Netanyahu took at a time when Israeli officialdom and public opinion was opposed to it, and it is perverse how fools have tried to turn Iraq into some kind of war on Israel’s behalf, utterly ignoring how after 1991 Saddam’s fraternal Baathist rival in Damascus was a much more present threat to them
I realize you’re a hateful idiot engaging in whataboutism of the weakest kind, but you can’t even get the basics right? Maronite Christians have been far more reliable allies of the IDF than even the Druze in Lebanese politics, and have been systematically demonized and often massacred for it. If you doubt that take a gander at how they an their leadership are portrayed in things like Wikipedia.
Had you picked literally any other Christian denomination in the Levant you would have been less inaccurate, since while Israel has been a more reliable friend of Christians in the region since around 1970ish than any other (including the Lebanese government originally formed to give Christians shelter there), it has had clashes and conflict with groups that include said other Christian demographics and the BLO happily make hay of this. But the Maronites by and large recognize that whatever their opinions of Israel, both Fatah and Hezbollah are existential threats to their existence.
Going to need citations there.