I keep checking the news on Iran …
… but it’s hard to know what’s really happening and hard to predict what will happen. It’s potentially transformative, though. A whole lot of dominoes could fall if Iran fell; Iran has been an enormous driver of terrorism and turmoil.
What seems to be true at the moment:
The mullahtocracy has blacked out the internet for three full days.
The regime is issuing threats to the US and Israel. The threats are not empty, but they don’t intimidate the way they once did because of the events of last summer.
Some mosques are burning:
The people of Iran have reportedly set fire to dozens of mosques in the last 14 days. How to explain to them that this is an act of… what’s the word… decolonization. How to explain to them that it is not Islamophobic to burn down a mosque, because mosques are not places of worship in this case, but places for state apparatus to commit acts of suppression. How to explain to them that the women of Iran are burning their hijabs and lighting the Supreme Leader’s face on fire, using the flame to ignite their cigarettes, because they have been mandated to constrict themselves against their will. How to explain to Mamdani’s core that being sworn in on a Quran to a democratic position gives Khameini and the Islamist regime the last laugh, because the Quran justifies brutalizing your wife and sex trafficking children. How to explain to them that they don’t stand for human rights at all, but for the violators of freedom itself.
Lots of photos at the link of young women lighting cigarettes with burning photos of the Iranian leaders.
I’m old enough to remember (and I remember it well) how in the buildup to the 1979 takeover by the mullahs, young women of the left – the grandmothers of today’s Iranian hijab-burners? – marched wearing the covered-up religious garb and declared that to be a sign of liberation. It puzzled me greatly at the time. These days the marriage of leftists and Islamofascism is a given.
It’s said that the regime has called in reinforcements from its satellites, such as Hezbollah, to crack down on its own people:
As anti-regime protests spread across Iran for a 12th straight day, the Islamic Republic has reportedly turned to foreign militias for support, with two independent sources confirming that roughly 850 Hezbollah, Iraqi militia and Quds Force-linked fighters crossed into Iran to bolster the regime’s security forces.
The reported movement marks a significant escalation in the regime’s response, signaling a willingness to rely on allied foreign militias with combat experience to help suppress domestic dissent.
“This is nothing new for the regime. It is the logical extension of a playbook the ruling clerics have used since 1979 to outsource repression to ideologically loyal militias and then integrate them into the state’s coercive infrastructure,” Iran expert Lisa Daftari told Fox News Digital.
And the world waits to see what, if anything, Trump will do:
Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
NOTE: I’ve written many many previous posts on Iran’s history. I especially suggest these, and in particular this, this, this, this, and this.
And if/when Trump acts, we won’t know about it until later. That’s a good thing, but frustrating. But I think the time is now.
I wouldn’t want to have to make the decision that he has to make! There are probably millions of people ready to criticize him if he intervenes, and millions more ready to do the same if he doesn’t!
I knew some Iranians when I lived in Fairbanks. The most “radical” of these felt that Arabs were invaders and they brought culture that wasn’t Persian. Islam was one of the things the Arabs brought. They also thought that the Shah was bringing Western culture to Iran too fast and the Islamic revolt in the ‘70s was a result of that. They felt that any changes in their country should be Persian changes, not just slapping the veneer of another culture on top of their own.
JFM — some wag pointed out that the Muslim invasion of Persia was actual “settler colonialism.” I think this downplays how radical and violent and bloody these invasions actually were.
Tousi TV is live streaming Iranian news with new video via Musk’s Starlink Internet service.
He cites a new high count of civilian deaths at 2,000. But people power has taken over most of the Capital, Tehran — the nation’s largest city — from the IRGC, the theocrats defense. He also mentions a military base in some city getting surrounded, with the would be force surrounding, declaring their loyalty to Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
One clip aired on State TV, shows the takeover of a Mosque by anti-government civilians (with a sad face on the news presenter). “This is how you take control of your country,” says Tousi.
From yesterday, Tousi shares video from London of the Embassy of Iran, where a protester cuts down their flag and replaced it with the Lion and Sun flag of the Monarchy. The crowd shouts demanding “Reza Pahlavi” to return!
The people are no longer afraid of the state. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99_POM2-mLI
I searched for up-to-date information about the US giant transport planes showing up in England. What’s on offer? C-130 Globemaster transports are believed to be ferrying helicopter gunships inside them. And the tactical offence of the Ghostrider gun ship platform is being advanced to Ramstein Air Force base in Germany
Headed where? To use against ISIS in Syria? Tousi breaks news that B-52 Bombers and other US planes have been seen leaving the US Base in Qatar — but headed to points unknown.
But otherwise info on Trump”s planes is four days old. MSM shouted “US military surge intensifies in the UK as WW3 fears explode,” from the London Daily Express.
Expanding on this headline, the source cites a UK professor’s bizarre analysis:
Professor Anthony Glees said Europe is facing a “major turning point in our relations with Trump’s MAGA America”, arguing the shift leaves no one safe.
“These are not pretty times for us,” Prof Glees warned.
“He’s given up on the [Nobel] Peace Prize. Today, he’s Mars. And that’s awful for all of us in Europe let alone South America,” he said.
Prof Glees also blasted what he described as Trump’s “colonial ambitions”, warning they send a dangerous signal to authoritarian regimes worldwide.
[YES! How sad that authoritarian regimes of the world should be fearful…SUBTEXT: “SAVE OUR RED-GREEN FRIENDS”.]
“But Trump’s colonial ambitions are as every serious person argues simply unacceptable and a green light to the world’s bullies and a recipe for repression everywhere,” he said.
___________
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-military-surge-intensifies-in-the-uk-as-ww3-fears-explode/ar-AA1TIyq3
Well, LoL! The left is as delusional in Europe as it is here. Because, obviously, Trump only wields “colonial ambitions” for oppression, you see.
These folks are beyond redemption, as seen in Minneapolis.
This afternoon, in a 1:18s video report, we see Iran’s Parliament leader threatening US President Trump.
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6387570245112
“BREAKING: Iran vows to target US military as Trump weighs intervention.
President Donald Trump warns Iran against harming protesters as unrest in Tehran enters its second week.”
The confrontation is escalating.
The anti- regime people have won.
The administration and Israel are talking as of this morning planning the next coordinated move. Musk has opened up starlink and it’s been reported that starlink routers are being smuggled in.
Dare I say that the election of Trump was transformative for the world? However, the enemies within our own citizens (40-50%?) are trying desperately to reverse the course. They shout “No Kings!” while tyrants fall.
I read a post on Twitter claiming that Iran is not even majority Muslim, which sounded rather odd to me. The CIA factbook says it’s over 99% Muslim, and even if discounting that number due to the effects of theocratic tyranny, I find it hard to accept that post’s assertion. A society can be dominant in any religious affiliation while being highly divided politically, culturally, socially. I think this is closer to the truth. Iran is multicultural, and very diverse by region and history. It would seem they have become more unified against the idea of living under a totalitarian, ruthless theocracy, and that’s a good thing. Will the Shah’s son return? I tend to doubt it – but I sincerely hope they have the opportunity and freedom to decide the question for themselves.
The place is called Iran, not Persia. Calling Iran Persia is like calling the US California. It has been called Iran for about 2200 years. Persia is a part of Iran along the gulf. The so called Persian Empire wasn’t actually called that by the Persians. First it was simply “the Empire” and then the Empire of the Iranians.
The C-130 Hercules is a venerable turboprop transport of medium lift capacity.
The C-17 GlobeMaster III is a more modern jet heavy-lift transport.
Although both can carry large items like artillery pieces and helicopters, the C-17 can in general carry more and larger ones, and transport them over intercontinental distances much faster. In the present situation, one would expect the C-17 to be the primary transport.
Interestingly, the recently announced “Rapid Dragon” program equips both these aircraft with a variety of palletized missiles that can be launched like cargo by parachute… the C-17 carrying significantly more of them. The Rapid Dragon name is a dead giveaway as to the intended recipient.
Nothing all that new here, but for what it’s worth:
Doctors describe overwhelmed Tehran hospitals as protests spread across Iran
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-883028
I knew an Iranian woman in Cairo, posted there with her Hungarian diplomat husband. She introduced herself as “Persian.”
There are large numbers of Christian converts in Iran, according to underground Christian sources, and many “Muslims” in Iran are non-practicing.
If the regime falls what replaces them? And will they really be, at least, friendly towards the US?
Richard Cook.
I’m pleased that I can answer your question so quickly. I don’t know.
While it’s being pointed out that the news updates on these various conflict hot spots aren’t forthcoming from the Progressive Legacy MSM, it’s also fair to point out that very little of any real news is emanating from these sources, that isn’t first appearing on social media sites and other independent sources, and what is being shown is rather insipid. Kind of interesting, isn’t it? Has anybody seen my buggy whip?
Richard Cook:
If the people of Iran have anything to say about it, the new government will be a lot more friendly.
In any case, it’s hard to picture a government less friendly to the US than the one that’s been in power since 1979.
I’m glad Trump is keeping mostly quiet publicly, because we simply don’t know enough about what’s happening on the ground there, and it’s a very fluid situation. I’m all for the fall of the mullahs, but I don’t want to see us repeat what happened with Bush the Elder in Kurdistan, where he more or less encouraged the Kurds to revolt and then did nothing to help them when they were slaughtered.
I’m not totally clear how much we can do to help a rebel movement there, and I’m not sure how much this is a rebel movement and how much it’s an inchaote outburst.
(I’m not saying Bush I was wrong not to act, necessarily, just as Obama might have been right to not act after his ‘red line calculus’ bluff was called. But we don’t want to encourage needless futile deaths and we don’t want to look weak and ineffectual ourselves.)
”Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Then he damn well better get moving. The IRGC has already killed over 2,000 protesters and has arrested many thousands more. Worse, Iran’s attorney general has announced that the protesters are enemies of God and that those arrested would be executed (likely after being tortured).
President Trump has announced several times now that he supports the protests and will move against the regime if it kills protesters. The crown prince, in his messages to the Iranian people directing the protests, has told them that President Trump supports them and has their backs. If Trump chickens out now he will cut down the alternative government that the Iranians have rallied behind and destroy America’s reputation in the world.
He needs to act soon. The bodies are piling up, and the streets of Tehran are clearing out. These protests could end up like the Tiananmen Square protests, which ended with mass death and ended up strengthening the communist regime.
then did nothing to help them when they were slaughtered.
Same thing happened in Hungary in 1956. But I don’t think that will happen in Iran, too much is riding on it, not least the reputation of the US. As to what we can do, besides keeping the Iranian army pinned down to guard against us, I don’t know. We don’t want to get stuck in the cities, so I suspect we will interdict movement of forces, perhaps try to restore communications. Another big question is what comes after. Iranians are going to need food, water, and medical aid, I hope we are prepared. Other countries in the region could help with that, but Arab and Persian might not mix. I also expect Baluchistan to bolt. The Kurds won’t because they need protection from Turkey. Russia may try to take some of the Caucasus. It is going to be complicated.
Chases Eagles — Have you not been following the youthful and secular, anti-Islamic and anti-theocratic character of Iran today???
The memory of history calls them to become more secular, like the pre-Islamic Iran, better known as Persian and Zoroastrian, “home to one of the oldest continuous major civilizations.” (Wiki)
This is what abjures them to disown their nemisis “Iran” because it is officially the “Islamic Republic of Iran.” Wikipedia agrees, stating that Iran “is also known as Persia.”
Ray — thanks for you helpful disambiguations!
Kate — a couple years ago, I was travelling out of Munich, and a Cologne resident chatted with me. This woman of a certain age was proudly Persian, too. She learned her American English at USC in SoCal — which is probably the home of the largest “Iranian” settlement in the West (most of the 210,000 in California).
BREAKING from Fox 11 in LA, “A U-Haul truck drove into a pro-Iranian demonstration outside a federal building in Westwood. Los Angeles police are on scene.” Injuries are unknown at this anti-Islamic Republic of Iran regime protest.2m clip https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwKd697doZ4
“is also known as Persia.”
“One man’s Mede is another man’s Persian.”
There are reports, about as credible as others, that the Regime is bringing in their surrogates because it turns out that their security force is hollow.
It may also be, and this is my speculation, that a percentage of the native security force will not fire on their fellow citizens, neighbors, and possibly relatives.
It is possible that Trump could help by hitting Hezbollah and others very hard on their home turf to discourage their activities in Iran.
Tousi TV has riveting video from the crime scene as the U-Haul truck mows people down in Westwood amidst screams, and he fingers the usual suspects.
The truck is festooned with the “MEK” signs — a minor offshoot of the Marxist and pro-Theocratic Left, he says. They hate the Shah. Thus, while his identity is not yet known, his apparent message is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPN79nBCu7c
As regards the C130 and the C17, there is a difference in capability. The former is capable of using crappy landing and take-off facilities. “Delivering you to the worst places on Earth since 1954.”
So having the Herc in theater provides a capability for using substandard facilities, either as part of the Plan or as a contingency.
With JATO, their takeoff run is amazingly short and not so long without the jets, either.
The truck is festooned with the “MEK” signs
If I recall correctly, they were against both the Shah and the Mullahs, and the US for that matter. They were based in Iraq after being driven out of Iran, and we tolerated them. They were designated terrorists, but also fought against ISIS. They were/are Communist true believers.
A lot of Iranian ex-pats, especially Jews, call themselves “Persian.”
The ideal outcome is that the US and Israel don’t have to do anything but watch the regime collapse. Maybe at most have a credible threat to intervene if the mullahs start massacring their own people.
In any case, it’s hard to picture a government less friendly to the US than the one that’s been in power since 1979.
Anything like ISIS and its offshoots, which are still around.
Neo-
True, but in the chaos post regime, anything is possible. Looking at Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran was pretty Western pre regime. However they are in an area overrun with Islam. They will not be to happy with any Western leaning government.
Speaking of MEK, there was a video of one of their snipers in action, very attractive red head. You never know how authentic a video is, but it was interesting.
Re: Iran vs Persia
__________________________
Elaine, I’m in Burma. You most likely know it as Myanmar, but it’ll always be Burma to me.
–“Seinfeld: J Peterman in Burma”
https://youtu.be/vAlinvw2Rb0?t=28
Both names are as ancient as can possibly be, one from ancient Avestan and one from ancient Persian. Greeks tended to use “Persian”,and Westerners inherited that usage from them, but people using both words have always been found living in what is now Iran.
“Iran” is a form of “Aryan” and was originally the name of a people living there, “Persian” is a form of “Pars” which was another people living there. They have enough ethnic and linguistic diversity that I’m not sure either of those names represents all people in Iran equally well–a bit like if we were to argue over whether to call people of the United Kingdom “English” or “Britons”, either would exclude a big chunk of people who are neither.
@Aggie: I read a post on Twitter claiming that Iran is not even majority Muslim, which sounded rather odd to me.
I saw that too and likewise.
I can well believe that Iran is not as monolithic as the 95-99% numbers we see in official sources, at least not in their heart of hearts. The Catholic Church still counts me as a Catholic.
Not a small number of the protestors are calling for an end to the Islamic Republic.
Persia is an actual part of the country. It is not the whole country. That fact that ignorant foreigners called the whole country Persia until the Shah asked them to stop kind of makes that point.
Niketas:
The Iranian government wants America destroyed, and has been responsible for terrorist attacks against the US for many decades. How is ISIS more hostile to the US? Iran’s government has been utterly hostile.
So, where are all the college kids and their professors demonstrating on behalf of the Iranian people??
And the UN ? Not a peep from those guys.
Ah, but you see, the mullahs hate Israel and the USA and that’s all you need to know.
If the USA can help the Iranian people rid themselves of the mullahs, that would be great.
I just don’t see what the USA can do.
If Obama was still in office, he would just send the Iranian mullahs a few more billion $$$$ in CASH .
@neo:How is ISIS more hostile to the US?
As bad as the mullahs have been, they are not the worst thing possible.
If you were paying attention to the kinds of things ISIS does in the limited areas they have controlled, in the much shorter time they have existed, having someone like them in charge of Iran would obviously be far worse than Iran has now. As for hostility to the US, they have plenty, and have been limited by their capabilities and not by their intentions. The United States is fighting them in Syria right now and has been for some time and Americans have been dying over there.
I don’t think it’s very likely that ISIS itself would be able to do take over from the mullahs because they are anti-Shia and wouldn’t find enough support within Iran, but someone more Shia-friendly with similar tactics and lack of scruples could easily be worse than what’s there now.
The current government of Iran is pretty bad, but there’s depths even they haven’t plumbed. I imagine if they survive the next few months they will themselves get quite a bit nastier.
None of this is intended to excuse or defend them. It’s just that the final outcome of what looks positive right now may be something we didn’t anticipate, and we from our armchairs have no power over or accountability for what comes next. But people who exercise power do have to think of these things, and have some idea of what’s likely to be coming next.
Mike Doran Xpost: https://x.com/i/status/2010718253581009043
Maybe Trump is waiting for evidence, the Irani’s must do it on their own. I know this: We can’t pull a Carter.
I think there are multiple elements affecting when and how the US and Israel will respond to massive civilian casualties inflicted on their own people by the Islamic regime.
It makes sense that the casualties rise to the level there is a general acceptance that the US “needs to do something, to prevent this humanitarian crisis”. That number might be quite high.
Another factor is what to do with the regime’s offensive capability. As the regime weakens it becomes an almost certainty it will lash out at both Israel and US forces in the region. Israel suffered significant damage during the missile barrage last year including 30 civilian deaths, 3000 wounded and about $1.5 billion in physical damage.
Israel significantly weakened Iran’s offensive ability, but they still have an estimated 120+ launchers and between 1,000-2,000 ballistic missiles. Those would likely be targeted in any military action by the US and/or Israel. There is 0% chance the US would target the civilian leadership, IMO, but would focus on continuing to degrade the military, attacking bases and armories.
I think there is a delicate balance the US is trying to maintain that our actions aren’t directed directly at toppling the regime, but coming to the aid of Iranians being brutally repressed by the regime.
The US and/or Israel also need to insure there is sufficient anti-missile defense systems in place to withstand what would likely be the Islamic regimes last stand– and all-out barrage against their enemies, the US and Israel.
— Niketas Choniates
This^^.
(BTW, I referred to ‘Kurdistan’ above, that was a slip, I meant the Kurds of Iraq in the first round of the Gulf War.)
The problem is that it’s an extremely fluid situation, and we just don’t know the whos and the whats. It’s entirely possible that a replacement regime would turn out to be as bad or worse…or much better. This sort of situation has to be played by ear, and it’s best not to make too many commitments while you’re in the dark.
I can easily imagine something worse than the mullahs. They are at least self-preserving and sort of sane and pragmatic.
— JohnTyler
Yes. This^^,
The Usual Suspects are not anti-war, anti-fascism, or anti-anything except America, Christianity, and Western Civilization. You can reliably predict their position by working out what is the most anti-those things. This has been a consistent pattern since the 1960s.
— mkent
What specifically do you recomment Trump/the USA do? It’s easy to say ‘help them’, but how?
Anything like ISIS and its offshoots, which are still around.
Islamic Republic basically is the Shia version of ISIS.
What specifically do you recomment Trump/the USA do? It’s easy to say ‘help them’, but how?
Target IRGC, ect. It already looks like Mossad is doing this. They told Iranians they were there with them on the ground and some of the assassinations are sophisticated and likely Mossad.
US likely could identify Islamic Republic targets which we could take out.
The problem is that it’s an extremely fluid situation, and we just don’t know the whos and the whats. It’s entirely possible that a replacement regime would turn out to be as bad or worse…or much better. This sort of situation has to be played by ear, and it’s best not to make too many commitments while you’re in the dark.
I can easily imagine something worse than the mullahs. They are at least self-preserving and sort of sane and pragmatic.
No, they are worst case for Iran.
The Iranian people rising up clearly want a more secular society and many are openly pro US and pro Israel.
@Don:Islamic Republic
Do you mean by this the current government of Iran, or is this a different group I haven’t heard of yet? I suppose it depends on how you weight atrocities but I don’t think Iran’s government is in the same league, or even playing the same sport, as ISIS has been.
For example, the 8000 or so Jews still in Tehran are still alive. The mullahs keep them around for probably some bad reason, but you couldn’t count on a group like ISIS not doing far worse judging by what they have already done.
HJ68:
You write:
Accent on the word “imagine.” They are not those things. See this post, and watch the 2-minute video clip there as well.
Re: Iran vs Persia
See https://pjmedia.com/jamie-wilson/2026/01/12/persia-or-iran-the-power-of-a-name-n4948173
The gist is that in 1935 the Shah changed Persia to Iran for symbolic reasons. Today the protestors are for changing it back similarly.
The boundaries of Iran 1935 were the same as Persia 1935, though different from the Persian Empire borders under Cyrus the Great.
Say, how’s the weather in the Gulf of America this winter?
Mike and Gadi chat up the news, and what is the news? Well among other things, Iran Iran Iran! And Venezuela too. —
https://youtu.be/WBa8ouABgUY
Keep in mind that Iran is a very big country, we aren’t going to invade. So where can a small operation be effective? I expect that the airports are guarded, and defensive weapons already targeted on them, so if we do land, it will need to be clandestine, otherwise we will need to stay in the air. The question then become targeting something that makes a difference. I suspect we will end up targeting some IRGC headquarters and sending in SOF to the cities to help. A simple decapitation strike will not be enough. I think time is running out and we will need to do something in the next 24 hours even if it mostly serves as propaganda.
@huxley:The gist is that in 1935 the Shah changed Persia to Iran for symbolic reasons.
The pre-Shah official name of Iran was Mamalek-e Mahruse-ye Iran. The Pahlavi dynasty used Dovlat-e Sahansahi-ye Iran from 1925. It’s now Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran.
I don’t know who is in charge of what name English speakers give to a country that does not use English, but the Shah had no power to make the whole world use one word over the other. Germany can’t make the French say “Deutschland” and the French can’t stop the Germans from saying “Frankreich”. If for some reason talking heads in the news start saying “Deutschland” it won’t be accurate to say “Germany changed its name”. That always was its name in their own language.
”What specifically do you recomment Trump/the USA do? It’s easy to say ‘help them’, but how?”
Honestly, I don’t know. My career has been centered around airpower, and that’s not a great tool for this situation.
But I’m not the president of the United States, and I didn’t proclaim a week ago to be “locked and loaded”, ready to help if things progressed exactly as they did. And the crown prince of Iran, who has emerged as the leading opposition figure among the protesters, didn’t, while urging the protesters to take to the streets, use my words to tell them that America had their backs if things got nasty.
Such a presidential proclamation, if not followed up with concrete actions, would not only destroy America’s image in the world, it would destroy the main opposition to the current regime. That would strengthen the regime, probably making it stronger than it’s ever been.
So if President Trump had a plan when he shot off his mouth, he needs to get to it. People are dying by the thousands. If he didn’t, he will have done more to destroy America’s standing in the world than any president since Jimmy Carter.
How many mullahs can dance on a turban?
Tomato, tomato, potato, potato lets call the whole thing sand.
More than President Peanut, Mr. Malaise? Quite arguably the second worst president ever? Or the Lightbringer, the Leader from Behind? Or FJB? I don’t think so.
Fast forward to the 1:00:00 mark as the discussion closes with the question “If the regime collapses, what would come next?” Michael Doran, Roya Hakakian, and Behnam Ben Taleblu offer their analysis of potential outcomes.
Will the Iranian Regime Fall?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2-tXULznwU
Niketas Choniates,
The current Iranian government is essentially the Shia version of ISIS. It is full on Islamist.
Tulsi TV on YouTube is very good.
Some good info on X. Open Source Intel is good.
My DIL is from Tehran and her parents and brother live there.
A few hours ago via Tousi TV at YT and elsewhere, this headline: “ LIVE: Israel Hospitals On HIGH Alert Over Imminent War With Iran”
And a pending live stream headlines “Trump orders US Citizens to leave Iran”.
Thus, attacks aimed to benefit civilians looks imminent.
mkent observes “Honestly, I don’t know. My career has been centered around airpower, and that’s not a great tool for this situation.”
I can safely imagine two steps. By air, attacking IIGC bases of operation.
And from the ground, liberating arms caches from state control and into civilian control.
CIA is very likely embedded for the second, but Special Forces are also likely to get involved.
EXPECT this effort to finely focus Putin on suing for peace with Ukraine and the West. We hope.
FNC reports hundreds killed and 11,000 arrested. Trump’s plan may well see to it that this rebel crown is liberated to help lead the revolution.
”More than President Peanut, Mr. Malaise? Quite arguably the second worst president ever? Or the Lightbringer, the Leader from Behind? Or FJB? I don’t think so.”
I said “standing in the world”, not “damaging to America.” Trump’s domestic policy far, far exceeds any Democratic president of my lifetime.
”…attacking IIGC bases of operation.”
That and decapitation strikes like the ones performed by Israel in the 12-day war are about the only ways to help the protesters with airpower. We could also use the opportunity to destroy Iranian air defense, missile launchers, and air bases, though that wouldn’t directly help the protesters.
The idea of ISIS taking over Iran is sheer idiocy since ISIS is Sunni and Iran is predominantly Shi’ite
Saw Trump downplay Iranian deaths by relating them to “stomping”.
Possible in wild crowd situations. Frequently happens during the haj.
So he’s not being hasty.
mkent:
It took Reagan and Bush the Elder to get the US standing in the world back from President Peanut. After George Bush, The Lightbringer undid all of that and piled on wth intentional domestic ruin and treasonous administrative state aparachtnics that hobbled Trump’s first administration. So the US standing in the world was that of an ox, (devoid of testicles). FJB just continued The Lightbringer’s policies, parasitizing the ox to further enfeeble it. Putin runs amok, Iran continues with its nuclear bomb program, China does its Can Do goodness, and open the doors tear down the fences for all yea undocumented Democrat voters.
Standing in the world.
Russian/Venezualian tankers being seized, Finland seizing Russian anchor draggers/undersea cable cutters. Europe waking up to the concept that they have to be serious about keeping Russia out of Europe.
Standing in the world indeed.
However, Steve Witkoff has no business in foreign policy whatsoever (he’s Russia’s best voice in DC).
— neo
I’m well aware of it. That’s why I say the mullahs in Iran have been relatively pragmatic. They plot constantly to destroy Israel and America, but when one or the other or both slaps them down, they stop short of blowing the Middle East up with them in it. As we watched Israel dismantle their proxy network over the last few years, and fire on Iran itself, they contented themselves with ineffectual responses and claims of success.
No doubt the mullahs long to destroy both America and Israel, and would press the button in a heart beat to make it happen. But I ascribe sanity to them because they recognize that, at least for the moment, that button would end with America and Israel destroying them and surviving. So they haven’t pressed it.
There’s a breed of fanatic that would say ‘so what’ and press it anyway in that situation.
That’s not a defense of the mullahs, merely a recognition that even worse possibilities do exist.
it they feel cornered now, it’ll be interesting and scary to see what they do.
— Don
And we know this how?
— Don
Do they? Or do they just want the mullahs gone? Or do some of them want a secular society and some of them want neither that nor the mullahs? Or is this an outburst of anger with little ideological or logical thought behind it? Do some of them like the theocratic state but just want different theocrats? Do some of the rebels hate each other almost as much as they do the mullahs? What is the attitude of the general public? How much of this is an elite movement and how much is popular groundswell?
I don’t know. Neither does anyone else, really. I detest the mullah regime but that doesn’t keep me from recognizing that we’re in unknown waters here.
HC68:
They don’t press that button because they don’t have that button – although not from lack of trying.
@ Richard Aubrey > “So he’s not being hasty.”
The situation in Iran seems to have come to the current point rather quickly, having only gone kinetic two weeks ago on December 28, 2025, although they came on “gradually, and then suddenly.”
https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iranian-Protests
We have seen posts on what the forces sent to Venezuela had to do in preparation, and that took a fairly lengthy time (although we haven’t been given enough info to know exactly how long, AFAIK).
It will take some time to develop a plan, practice it, and put people and material in position to accomplish it.
IMO, President Trump will not randomly bomb the Mullahs’ assets, which is about all he could do given the abruptness of the protests, because of the danger to civilians. I expect something eventually along the lines of Israel’s surgical strikes on Hamas (missiles through the leadership’s living room windows). But that takes intel even the IDF / Mossad may not have yet, although it’s clear that they have spies in Iran who might be able to deliver it.
Trump probably won’t do an extraction of Khamenei, ala Maduro, but anyone who can predict Trump’s actions with any certainty has my applause.
PS The Britannica article is very comprehensive, with history and interactive maps.
In re my speculations, see Neo’s post on 1/12.
— neo
They don’t have the nuclear button, or not enough to be useful to them. They absolutely do have other buttons they could press, and could have pressed at any time over the last several decades. They didn’t, as I said, precisely because the buttons they had were not sufficient. If they pressed, Iran would be wiped out and Israel and America would be hurt but survive.
But there are people who would have pressed those buttons anyway.
For one ex, when Israel bombed Iran not long ago, the mullahs could have retaliated harder, and set the Middle East on fire, with them in it. They didn’t. Instead they launched an entirely ineffectual missile barrage and declared victory.
I agree completely that the moment the mullahs think they have a button that will do the job, (i.e. wipe us out while letting them survive), they’ll press it.
HC68:
An Iranian regime that destroyed itself would not be worse than the current one that’s managed to save itself to do its evil.
See this for Iran’s plans that didn’t come to fruition.