The Ignatius report on the war in Rafah: will Israel scale back?
Today there’s a WaPo article by David Ignatius on the war in Gaza:
I’ve seen other articles reporting on what Ignatius wrote; for example, this, entitled: “Report: Israel opts for limited Rafah action with Biden’s blessing: the IDF won’t engage in a full-scale assault on the last Hamas stronghold in southern Gaza.” Excerpt [emphasis mine]:
In an opinion piece published on Monday citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper’s senior commentator wrote that the framework for eventually ending the Gaza war became more clear after a just-wrapped trip to Saudi Arabia and Israel by U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Brett McGurk, the U.S. National Security Council’s coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa.
“Israeli leaders have reached a consensus about a final assault on Hamas’s four remaining battalions in Rafah. Instead of the heavy attack with two divisions that Israel contemplated several weeks ago, government and military leaders foresee a more limited assault that U.S. officials think will result in fewer civilian casualties and, for that reason, Biden won’t oppose,” said Ignatius.
“At least 800,000 of the roughly 1.5 million Palestinians who had gathered in Rafah have left, U.S. officials believe,” he added.
Ignatius also wrote that Israeli defense officials have agreed on a strategy for “the day after” Hamas is defeated, with Ramallah playing a role. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is against Palestinian Authority involvement in governing Gaza given its support for terrorism, a stance Ignatius acknowledges.
The post-Hamas Gaza “will include a Palestinian security force drawn in part from the Palestinian Authority’s administrative payroll in Gaza. This Palestinian force will be overseen by a governing council of Palestinian notables, backed by moderate Arab states such as Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia,” he said.
So, what does all this mean? Trying to read Ignatius in the WaPo and understand the backstory is like reading Pravda and Kremlin tealeaves in Soviet days, but I’ll give it a go.
First let me say that Ignatius is the usual Democrat hack (I’ve written about him before, here as well as here). But that doesn’t mean he’s not correct. It means we certainly can’t assume that he is, or that this is straightforward reporting.
I also want to call your attention to phrases such as “eventually” ending the war and “more limited” assault. They are both unclear both as to time and scale.
Various possibilities come to mind in explaining the article. Ignatius’ sources – probably either Sullivan, McGurk, or their aides – may be trying to say something like, “See, President Biden is doing great and has gotten peace in our times underway, having convinced the nasty old Israelis not to bomb Rafah into the Stone Age.” There may be no agreement at all, merely talks about it, and this Ignatius story might be a form of pressure on Israel. Or, there might be an agreement of sorts, in which the Israelis go somewhat easier in exchange for Biden and company not stabbing them in the back in the ICC, and in exchange for some sort of vague support for the war’s aftermath in controlling Gaza and educating the Gazans in the notion that Israelis are not devils incarnate after all.
As for that business of the “governing council of Palestinian notables,” it would be fascinating to get the names of these stellar leaders and hear about their wonderful accomplishments. And I’d be curious whether Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are in fact onboard with this, and if so how they see their roles. They do have an interest in keeping the Gazans from attacking Israel again, but they also have an extreme antipathy to dealing with the Palestinians at all, as the latter and their allies have tried to disrupt the stabilty of other Arab countries and on the whole have been bad, bad news.
I haven’t yet seen any announcement from the Israeli government about any of this. And I wonder how the Ignatius report can be reconciled with this:
As the military operation in Hamas-held stronghold of Rafah entered its second week, the IDF is expanding its control over the city. The military was advancing “into Rafah, one area after another and gradually expanding,” the Israeli TV channel i24NEWS reported Tuesday.
If the Ignatius report is correct, however, it may be that Israeli leaders think that they cannot eliminate all the terrorists anyway, that world opinion is isolating them further and further, that the Biden administration is willing to cut off their armaments and their own supply can’t last forever, and that the best solution may lie in the more moderate Arab nations gaining some control of the area if they’re willing to do so in exchange for an Israeli pullback of sorts.
Time will tell.
IDF just found another large cache of weapons.
Root and Branch, Root and Branch
BREAKING: Biden National Security Council Advisor: We Can’t Go Against Israel until Reelection; Israel ‘Lies, Bombs, and Kills All These Kids’
Richard Grenell from Project Veritas, video included: https://twitter.com/Project_Veritas/status/1792920901660418139?t=8q-Bnnp8JYS2kxmUYhybYg&s=19
“This page has been blocked by Microsoft Edge”
Stuffy browser indeed! Time to find another.
Trying to read Ignatius in the WaPo and understand the backstory is like reading Pravda and Kremlin tealeaves in Soviet days
Some things you find in media, especially in the Post, are best thought of as interoffice memos between different parts of the Deep State, or from the Inner Party to Outer Party, however you want to think of it. Sometimes they’re just trying to set the narrative in advance of any facts, so that any facts which come out are fit into the pre-existing narrative instead of developing from the facts.
The uae and jordan seem to be unwilling to venture into this sandpit
Dahlan and jibroud who seem to have party to the Abraham accord reside in the uae
Ignatius is a prince of the post his father was deputy navy secretary and an executive under catherine graham
He wrote sort of a roman a clef between his other stories
sdferr: Richard Grenell? I don’t see his name on the Project Veritas report.
Looks to me like Israel is proceeding very systematically in Rafah, as it did in other areas. On after the war, I imagine Israel would be happy to turn Gaza back over to Egypt, on the condition that Egypt would stop the rocket attacks. On the other hand, Egypt doesn’t want anything to do with Gaza, and it’s hard to blame them. Nobody wants Gaza.
If it is in the WaPo, it is Democratic propaganda. Jeff Bezos owns the paper 100% and it seems he is more interested in $ than in actual news, morals, and ethics.
How can anyone stand to read this garbage?
Hell, I figured out 30 years ago the NY Times was not a “news”paper but a propaganda organ, and the WaPo was next in the line of “news” as garbage.
If it is in the WaPo, it is Democratic propaganda. Jeff Bezos owns the paper 100% and it seems he is more interested in $ than in morals, facts,and ethics.
How can anyone stand to read this garbage? Hell, I figured out 30 years ago the NY Times was not a “news”paper, and the WaPo was next in the line of “news” garbage.
Neither is Gannett nor the Tribune company, or McClatchy, the level of category error one is exposed to in rather toxic,
it depends on which officials Gantz, Gallant, they may be talking to, maybe no one, or they misheard or projected their own biases, yes Arafats clan was Circassian, who are Turks not Arabs, he was born in Cairo, under the Egyptian mandate,
the Jordanian princess, grew up in Kuwait which was the best place for a displaced Bedu to grow up, I think she graduated before the Mubaraks kicked them out,
the same bylines that accepted the Gaza hospital story, are breathless about this,
the only reliable info, comes through a few substacks like Melanie Phillips, or Jordan Schachtel, a few twitter accounts, a few publications like the Tablet, but it is a vast sargasso sea of unreason rage and ruin
(riffing off an old Creedence Clearwater song)
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/05/21/deeply-unhelpful-uk-rejects-international-court-arrest-warrant-for-netanyahu/
Sorry Kate, Grenell retweeted the Veritas post, which retweet I opened — I guess the original post’s address jumps to the front., which I hadn’t noticed.
hes a junior cybertwit, seconded from the Senate staff, is there anyone who doesn’t have the requisite blend of idiocy, arrogance and anger,
I believe the DoS-Biden’s have exploited divisions inside the ruling unity government to force these concessions.
As much as I might like to believe that this “plan” could work, given the history of Hamas, let me declare that it will fail. I expect it to.
Meanwhile, on the Gaza home front, who’s financing these Insta-campus crusaders for the Jew Hate and genocide?
Surprisingly, this includes the CCP — Chinese monies. Janet Levy dishes
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/05/the_network_behind_the_pro_hamas_disruptions.html
IF TRUMP WERE PRESIDENT, wouldn’t he deal strongly with this? Possibly, as election interference?
the whole khashoggi kerfluffle was about empowering islamists like those favored by malley’s international crisis forum, it was harsh way to go, but he was a qatari agent, a little like that saudi operative, who apparently was the linchpin to the hijackers, but whose actions were covered up by the sainted robert mueller (spit) osama
bayoumi, in that other link
the norwegians seem the first to legitimate this kangaroo arrangement, having sacrificed their oil reserves to the sky dragon, they now serve Baal or other Levantine gods,
Our MSM shed copious tears over Khashoggi’s demise.
who was a fanboi of Hamas, the Taliban and even Islamic State, in fairly short order, in almost every arena of policy,
Caroline Glick has been putting out some good videos on this stuff. She thinks the Biden administration is misreading everyone and their plans won’t come about. I suspect that’s the case. I certainly hope it is.
The demand for Gaza to be administrated by a mix of the US, Europe, Arab nations and Palestinians would be quite the clusterfuck.
Israel has looked like it has been ‘chasing its tail’ for some time now, IMHO.
They’ve been tied up in Jabalia recently—believe it may be first time there, but Hamas has been putting up a strong resistance there.
Other areas they clear and then leave – Hamas returns, and Israel goes back in for another clearing.
Gen. Charles Brown Jr. said:
Can’t be gentle in war, and maybe Israel has been too gentle—for far too long in this war.
Now we’re hearing that ‘Israel is planning a limited attack targeting Hamas in Rafah.’ Meanwhile:
Well, Israel has wanted more recognition & “normalization” with Arab states, and some Arab states have wanted to counter Iran – so maybe there’s something to the stories we’ve been hearing…
Brown said that Israel has not been holding territory after conducting clearing operations, which allows Hamas to return to those areas.
Past U.S. holding operations in the Middle East have been ugly affairs – “Operation Sitting Duck” I call them. Let the enemy reinfest, observe them, and recleanse the area.
Karmi:
I can’t second-guess Israel. It’s just too complicated.
I don’t believe there is any unequivocal Right Way to go.
What does it mean?
It means, “ Israel HAD BETTER DO WHAT WE SAY…OR ELSE…”
Clipped from “The Gantz Ultimatum”, Tablet Mag, ( https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/gantz-ultimatum-netanyahu ):
Guzzling down Obama-Biden propaganda (“cited unspecified officials”) is bad for Israel’s future safety and security, to say nothing of the suffering of the wider Middle East in the event of an emplacement of a thoroughgoing Iranian hegemony there.
huxley:
I started off not second guessing them, and yes “It’s just too complicated.” However, the Gazans are fanatics, and Israel has been letting Hamas AND a large part of the world dictate how they can fight this war.
Point is, it seems – that Israel is not beating Hamas to the point where they are looking to give up. Just read that Yahya Sinwar believes he is winning!?!
Ditto that…
When you hold a perimeter against Something, outside the perimeter is Something. So you hold the perimeter indefinitely, paying that cost and bearing the additional cost of a break. Indefinitely.
Or you destroy Something.
Who has the biggervaccount in terms of disposable people, money, and world wide sympathy?
Who can last longer?
A huge advantage of all this, for “Biden”, is that just like Gaza “became” a honeycomb of multi-level and multi-directional tunnels, a place seething with missiles and rockets…as “a result” of Israel’s withdrawal from there; and just like South Lebanon “became” a honeycomb of even more sophisticated tunnels, a place seething with missiles and rockets…as “a result” of Israel’s withdrawal from there; so the West Bank will “become” honeycombed with multi-level and multi-directional tunnels, a place seething with missiles and rockets…as “a result” of Israel’s withdrawal from there.
It’s what’s called “win-win”—at least for “Biden” and the Palestinians (but then we’ve been saying for some time now that the Democratic Party plays by “Palestinian Rules”…or was it that the Palestinians play by “Democratic Party Rules”?, can’t remember [scratches head]—well, doesn’t really matter all that much in any event).
N.B. Perhaps all that tunnel building won’t really be necessary for Abbas or his successor if they can muster enough missiles and rockets—oh, and drones, too, why not?—to blanket the Jewish State with incoming “gifts” all the time. (Hey, kind of like what Gaza has been able to do—and what Hezbullah WILL do if/when they feel the time is ripe!)
To be sure, maybe “Biden”—under the good ole’ “Bidenesque” rationale that “his” goal is to create a better world, one of peace, understanding brother/sister/xhe-hood, whatever—REALLY wants to force the Israelis into a position where to survive they WILL HAVE TO TRULY genocide (verb transitive—huh?) the Palestinians once and for all…which, “he” hopes, would—FINALLY—make Israel that PARIAH NATION that so many would like it to be…with all that that entails….
File under: Eureka!
Permit me to enquire whether a perimeter can be held “indefinitely”…
(Put another way, what is ONE big difference between the Six-Day and Yom-Kippur/Ramadan Wars…? Or between Dien Bien Phu, 1954, and Saigon, 1975?)
I seem to recall the Ignatius is the sort of journalist who places pieces in Foreign Affairs now and again. I think I’ve been seeing his byline for about 40 years know. Don’t recall him as been peculiarly hackish.
==
My guess would be that he’s a conduit for his sources. Austin-Blinken-Sullivan-Mayorkas are not an impressive crew even when they’re not being frankly criminal.
2006 2009 2012 2014 2021 now tell me how israel been ‘letting’ gaza do anything now the eu and the un and the us govt have their blood soaked hands up to their elbows
What are the works of gazans blowing up discoteques synagogues pizzerias that what they do what theyve been doing for 30 years
Barry. Good point. But not one which occurs to those trying to figure out how to keep Something from troubling them. The can gets kicked down the road.
But what is the Something which Israel will have to keep at bay forever or destroy entirely?
I credited ignatius early work body of lies had a little too much commentary it was about someone like zarqawi even though they gave him syrian characteristics it would be nearly a decade till it became predictive with islamic state
“The can gets kicked down the road…”
Indeed, it’s one rather common “solution”…
In Israel, too.
And so the can got kicked down the road countless times….
(But what was the ALTERNATIVE? Ah, there’s the rub….)
…until Oct. 7, when it became understood—to most, no not all, alas—that THAT was, um, NOT going to “work” anymore.
The huge problem is that there is a DIRECT CONNECTION between kicking that can and the events of Oct. 7.
It SHOULD HAVE BEEN understood; after all, there was a precedent in October 1973—which Oct 7. was symbolically (they LOVE their symbolism, don’t they?) supposed to echo…resonating like a tremendous gong.
(File under 20-20 hindsight? Well, yes; but NO!)
STILL, they allowed it to happen. In spite of warnings, theoretical and warnings real.
They permitted it to succeed. They turned their backs, closed their eyes, believed in their own cleverness.
How many times can a country—a person?—F*&% Up and stay in contention…or even stay alive?
How did THEY allow this carnage even to happen?
So we’re back to: it happened because kicking the can became the modus vivendi. The smart thing. POLICY.
(To be sure, there were other reasons—sinister and nefarious reasons—why the policy of kicking the can was reinforced, defended, embraced.)
We know the answer halavi eisenkot perhaps even gallant were willing to strike a body blow against bibi (i dont want to hear they wouldnt dare the evidence has made itself crystal clear) look at milley kelley mattis and co in this neck of the woods
Ah pantsless mcguirk a walking talking blackmail target re that apocryphal scene atop the baghdad embassy
I’ll just add an “encouraged” after that last word (i.e., “embraced”)….
(Ah but “encouraged” by whom…?)
There is definitely an Israeli deep state that’s in bed with the American deep state, attempting to take down Bibi, and using street demonstrators to agitate.