What was Biden’s all-fired rush to get out of Afghanistan about?
There was nothing external pushing our exit from Afghanistan in terms of time. The deadlines were all self-imposed.
Ah, but we were there for 20 years, you might say. That is true. But there was no special crisis there anymore. We did not have all that many troops there either, and we hadn’t lost any military forces in over a year. And yet Biden was determined to get out entirely, and to do it as soon as possible.
But at the very least, once the decision was made to get out, why not do it so that there was enough time to get all the Americans and all the vulnerable Afghans out who had helped us, and then withdraw the military? That wouldn’t have taken so very long. And why not wait till winter was here before beginning to do the latter?
Apparently Biden was in too much of a hurry to worry about any of that:
One source familiar with the talks between the U.S. and Afghanistan told The Daily Beast that, in addition to requests for a conditions-based withdrawal, Afghan officials asked the Biden administration to delay the move at least until October. Fighting in Afghanistan is often seasonal with extended lulls in combat during the winter months when snow and cold weather makes movement more difficult.
Afghan officials had hoped that a drawback timed with the beginning of winter could buy them more time to strengthen defenses against the Taliban. But the Biden administration pushed ahead with its own timeline.
A “conditions-based withdrawal” was what the Trump agreement with the Taliban specified. It included contingencies that the Taliban had to fulfill before the US forces would be leaving. It’s the way agreements like this must be drawn up and implemented or they are an absurdity in which one side can give up everything and get nothing for it.
Here’s what Pompeo has said about that:
For his part, Mr. Pompeo has repeatedly suggested that the Trump administration would have thrown the brakes on an American departure from the country as the Taliban pursued military conquest.
“We made abundantly clear if they did not live up to that piece of paper, to the words that they had put on the ground, we weren’t going to allow them to just walk away from any deal that they had struck, we were going to go crush them,” he said on “Fox News Sunday” over the weekend.
But Mr. Pompeo did not offer specifics about how the Taliban had violated the deal. The next day, he told the Fox Business Network that the Trump administration “would have demanded that the Taliban actually deliver on the conditions that we laid out in the agreement,” saying the Taliban had agreed “to engage in a meaningful power-sharing agreement, something that we struggled to get them to do.”
During the four years of Trump’s administration – and even prior to that, in his long career as a businessman – Trump was never averse to walking away from deals if the other party didn’t live up to its side of the bargain. And he had no trouble pressuring and using force when necessary.
But apparently Biden wasn’t interested in enforcing those or any other conditions; that’s how badly he wanted out, and fast. And strengthening the Afghan government’s defenses – or at least maximizing them as much as possible given the circumstances – would have been key to allow them any chance of holding the line, or of even postponing an inevitable takeover (see this previous post of mine for some of the details of how Biden actually made things impossible for Afghanistan’s military to defend the country). But Biden wanted no more postponements, whatever the consequences.
Why did he do this? We can say it’s because he’s been losing whatever faculties and judgment he used to have, and he didn’t have much to begin with. And I while I think that is true – plus a great deal of impulsivity and impatience may have always been part of his personality but might be exacerbated by his age-related decline – I think there was more.
Another motive was almost certainly his narcissism and desire to make a big splash on the 20th anniversary of 9/11 by being able to proudly claim that he was the person who ended the Afghanistan War after all these years. Furthermore, I think Biden wanted to leave in a hurried manner because he had chafed for eight years as VP under Obama’s rather large shadow. I have read that Biden wanted to end the war in Afghanistan even back towards the beginning of Obama’s presidency, but it never happened under Obama and my guess is that the continuation of the war and the ignoring of what Biden considered his own sage advice (after all, he was the big foreign policy “expert” in the administration) rankled him. Now as president he could finally do as he pleased. No one was going to stop him; that’s why he threw off all advice to the contrary as the sort of thing he’d heard before. He would show them, by golly.
When the Afghanistan fall began to be reported, I originally said I thought that, whatever other decisions have been made by Biden’s handlers rather than Biden, I believed that this was one he had made himself. It has his fingerprints all over it: his stupidity and poor judgment, and his stubbornness and narcissism. And as time has gone on, as I’ve read more in article after article about how the decision was supposedly made, I’ve become even more convinced that Biden was actually almost universally advised by other people (the military and the State Department) that the way he was going about this was a bad idea. He didn’t listen.
Until now Joe Biden as president has only seemed dangerous because of his leftism. Almost every decision he’s made until now has been in line with that. Most people thought that if he ever tried to do anything really dangerous, cooler heads would stop him. But this terrible terrible decision to leave Afghanistan in this particularly precipitous and exceptionally calamitous way was allowed to go forward. Its motives seem more idiosyncratic and personal, although there may indeed be much more behind it.
It is also very frightening. Biden needs to be removed from office – and there really is, or should be, that is – a sense of great urgency about that.
[NOTE: In a future post, I plan to take up the question of how Biden might be removed from office. I’m not saying it will happen, but it most certainly should happen – and yesterday. Who would replace him is another question I plan to take up.]
[ADDENDUM: Some further remarks on the subject of how much of this was done under Biden’s orders – my strong gut feeling is that yes, Biden set quite a few of the details about what had to happen first and what next. In other words, he set priorities. The military may have advised him not to do it that way, but he ordered them to do it the way he wanted. Their only recourse to obeying at that point would have been to disobey or resign, and they did neither.
I absolutely could be wrong about this; we simply don’t know. I’m quite aware of that. But it’s the most parsimonious explanation for what happened. It also fits with my sense of Biden’s psychological state and inclinations. Isn’t this a withdrawal that looks as though it were designed by a dementia sufferer? Well, maybe that’s because it was.
If you recall, someone commented here the other day with a reminder that for a while LBJ micromanaged the Vietnam War even to the degree of choosing the bombing targets. So it is my sense that presidents have some leeway about how much of the decision-making they will control and how much they will leave to the generals. If anyone knows more about that, please feel free to comment on it.]
What a can’t quite wrap my head around is the fact that most on the right have been operating under the general theory that Biden is some type of figure head and it’s really some group of people making policy with Joe getting pushed out front occasionally to keep the illusion alive.
So if we believe that to be true and also that Afghanistan was Biden’s decision mainly why did these people like Jill, Klain, Rice, Obama, etc. allow this to happen or at least happen in this way?
why did these people like Jill, Klain, Rice, Obama, etc. allow this to happen or at least happen in this way?
Stupidity, and a belief that the media will cover for their mistakes. Worst political class ever.
qatar – al-rai newspaper
http://alrai.com/article/10602634/????/???
Griffin:
I have been saying that although he has advisors and handlers and guides, and they are very influential, I think that he is still a participant in the decision-making process. I said that before this Afghanistan fiasco.
But I think with this decision he asserted himself as boss in a particularly stubborn way and could not be dissuaded, because he had many motives to do it (I described some in the post). It was emotionally driven. And he is Commander-in-Chief. No one could overrule him without removing him. Unfortunately for us and for the Afghan people, as well as many countries in Europe and perhaps Taiwan and beyond, they miscalculated.
I’m not saying no one was truly on Biden’s side in the decision. But I think very few if any were.
That said, I doubt they thought it would be as completely disastrous as it ended up. They thought they would have more time.
Well we know who would replace him unless Kamala refused. I doubt she would refuse. Since Joe and Kamala came to power I’ve always thought things could get bad and if Joe goes thing could even worse … very bad.
Neo,
That said, I doubt they thought it would be as completely disastrous as it ended up. They thought they would have more time.
What you saw its fast move by Taliban to take the vacuum on their homeland what help them is the surrender and support by their nation. this was the surprise to US and western allies there.
Let not forgot 18 years ago the “completely disastrous” mission in invading Iraq and handed to Pro-Iranian…..
That real a “completely disastrous” outcome till today.
jack:
Of course she would replace him initially. But they don’t want her. I am thinking of a whole series of possible events.
This writer claims to be a retired 30-year U.S. military veteran with experience in planning for noncombatant evacuation operations.
What the heck is going on with our military in Kabul?
I think he is trying to dispel the notion that these events were merely a series of goofs and snafus. At a minimum, he suggests that a whole raft of military SOP was thrown out the window.
TommyJay:
Yes, but couldn’t Biden as CIC have told them to just do it and jettison those niceties, under his orders?
I think we need some new words to describe a condition such as Biden’s. “Stupid” doesn’t tell us much. How about talking in terms of bits/second processing capability, and what happens in an aging brain when it uses it obstinacy and aggression to disguise its failure to process and retain reasonably faithful images of things like “soldiers ordered into harm’s way, subject to logistical constraints X, Y, Z…” and “if we do A it is highly likely that B will happen within time T, and cost us at least Q before so much time passes, without any compensating benefit.”
This balancing and guesswork and what-if is what we all do, all day long. But when you get older, you generally don’t process as well. And you know you’re coming up short; and you get defensive; and you get angry at being less than you were (even though, frankly, you were never much); and you know your time is short; and by GOD you are going to make your mark before it’s too late, you are going to make all your critics and adversaries eat their words.
Psychologically it’s a coherent picture. Cognitively likewise: you have declined so that you no longer know what you don’’t know. And politically? You’re trapped. You’re reduced to following your Teleprompter, which is being fed by your handlers.
Hmm…I always figured Joe knew that he was a puppet. This is more conspiratorial than I usually go, but:
Could it be that he actually thought that he was in charge, and that he was set up to take the fall over this by his underlings/overlings? His senility providing “plausible deniability” to the absolutely treasonous way it was done?
Biden: Ego and bad judgment. Same guy he’s always been, just fading mentally from a weak position to begin with. But I notice that the military and State machinery managed to refuse Trump’s orders on several occasions. They went along with this, maybe, because he’s their guy and they couldn’t handle saying no.
Why was Biden in such a hurry to leave Afghanistan?
Okay, this is wild speculation, for which I have no evidence, but maybe it’s part of diplomatic negotiations with Iran, Pakistan, or even China.
Maybe one of them offered to do something for Biden, as long as he immediately withdrew from Afghanistan. If one of them soon does something diplomatically significant, would that be confirmation?
Tommy J.
The Marine Expeditionary Units, multi-company force afloat in various types of craft like assault carriers–as opposed to the bigger fleet carriers.
They have SOP for a number of contingencies including evac of civilians in, or not in, combat situations.
One writer said they had nineteen mission types. Eighteen were separate SOP and the nineteenth was to float around reminding people of the other eighteen.
Point is, this is not something new. It’s been planned for over decades. You haul out the outline, fill in the blanks–who, what force, where, transport available, time to area–and out the bottom comes The Plan. I exaggerate to make the point that we don’t have to picture agonized ;planning staffs sitting around a big table figuring out something nobody’s ever done before. Although we’ll probably hear it.
cornflour. If it happens, it will be a catastrophe for us. But, considering the environment, how will we know?
So if joe biden is this bad at what he is supposed to be an expert at imagine his performance on things he wasn’t known to be good at. if his competence level on everything else is about the same as him being a father, god bless America. Funny how nevertrumpers insisted that Hunter Biden was irrelevant, even if you ignore the possibility of Hunter was dealing with joe’s blessing, isn’t how good a person at parenthood a good indicator on his competence at other areas? Remember how the liberals used to treat don jr like a loser, calling him Fredo using him to mock his father? Remember how the liberals insisted baron was autistic without evidence. Children weren’t off limit, even pre teens, what changed?
Neo. Short answer: That was exactly my thinking; several days ago. Civilian command of the military and all.
The way too long reply:
Initially I was cavalierly dismissive. What did people expect of Scarecrow Joe? Everything about this administration is just depressing. Why dwell on it?
I think you & I share a fascination with the information hunt. So then that kicked in. But also, this is a massive massive disaster. The credit crisis of 2008. The COVID-19 pandemic. Those are times to wake up and study.
Neo said, “Why didn’t Gen. Milley resign?” some days ago. My thoughts about that were a little dismissive because of the above. But now, I agree with that idea.
I just don’t understand how our military and State Dept. response to U.S. citizens trapped in Afghanistan can be this casual and careless. Unless it is intentional. Unless there are some powerful people in the executive that really hate these people and want them to twist in the wind and die. In a less insane world, we would have a 10 minute impeachment and conviction, and then move directly to treason investigation and trials.
(Gosh I’m so slow. Catching up here.)
Was trump’s admin really that competent ? The employment rate was unprecedented, gdp was growing at an astonishing rate every quarter at a speed no one thought a developed country could achieve, without inflation and occasionally deflation. Isis was defeated in weeks, terrorism was pretty much eliminated after being a weekly occasions under Obama. Natural disasters were dealt in timely and competence manner except only when democrat governors intentionally slow walking things (puerto rico) to make him look bad, factories were moving back, we lowered our dependence on China by diversified our supply chain, energy independent, Middle East was so peaceful we completely forgot about it, even when COVID came he keep the economy afloat while providing all the assistance he could to states (masks, ventilator, funding to vaccine and other studies of the virus). The vaccines were done before his term was over after democrats said it was impossible. The world was so peaceful under trump and the country was ran so smoothly the media had all the free to fabricate stuff to hurt him… COVID would have hurt America even more if trump didn’t build up the economy so well that was able to survive the impact economically. Enjoy the dementia Biden era, this is only the beginning.
Was trump just lucky that Obama handed him a great country?
TommyJay
There are so many different kinds of Americans in Astan, so many different reasons for them to be there, that it seems difficult to contemplate the US government hating all of them. But a particular type, a minority of the total perhaps, and take the heat for letting them and everybody else be victimized…?
Couple of possibilities: The feds wanted large numbers of hostages to validate some other action they are planning on taking. Couldn’t help it. Had no choice. Preplanned with the Taliban or Isis.
Would rather take the heat for not acting than for whatever difficulties were encountered in acting. Would probably look better than following up a massive botching initially with a disaster of an expedition. The first is sunk cost, why risk another?
Kate: “Biden: Ego and bad judgment. Same guy he’s always been, just fading mentally from a weak position to begin with. But I notice that the military and State machinery managed to refuse Trump’s orders on several occasions. They went along with this, maybe, because he’s their guy and they couldn’t handle saying no.”
^^^^
Right on, Kate. More than Biden must pay for this. Worse, many used Biden to excuse their anti-American fantasies.
How long before we start hearing “I was only following orders!” The military folks know the UCMJ doesn’t care, but the bureaucracy might get away with it.
Politically, Biden is now a dead man walking.
At this point, I think that neo has the right of it. Reportedly, initially there were objections from 2 of the 4 advisors in the room with Biden. Probably Austin and Milley offered mild objections but when the other two were noncommittal Biden seized upon that as him becoming the deciding POV. By not objecting, I think the two who didn’t object effectively allowed Biden to make this decision. Once Biden’s ‘decision’ was made, careerists Austin and Milley fell into line.
Why let Biden initiate a disaster? Think of the predictable fallout.
The Taliban gain tremendous leverage with thousands of American hostages.
Afghanistan again becomes a refuge for terrorist groups like al Queda and ISIS.
China seizes Taiwan.
And now has either control of 50% of the world’s production of computer chips or that % is lost through “collateral damage” throwing the West’s consumer economy into depression.
Putin seizes control of the Ukraine. Given the Biden Administration’s exposure as a “weak horse”, Putin seizing the Ukraine would carry an implied threat to Europe.
Iran, the foremost terrorist State gains nuclear ICBM capability.
Islamic terrorist attacks upon America.
North Korea invades South Korea.
America implodes. Mission accomplished.
I hate to cut Biden any slack but you’re leaving a lot out of the picture, Neo.
The Trump/Taliban peace deal was announced in FEBRUARY 2020. The U.S. military/intelligence/foreign service had almost 18 months to plan and prepare for getting out of Afghanistan. We’ve seen leaks now of people telling Biden withdrawal was unwise but unless you think Biden himself ordered the expulsion of foreign contractors that serviced the Afghan air force, I think there’s been zero reporting on Biden actually interfering with the withdrawal.
As bad as Biden’s leadership and decision-making is, a huge part of this disaster is that the President of the United States gave his subordinates an order and they refused to follow it.
Mike
Neo says, “In a future post, I plan to take up the question of how Biden might be removed from office. I’m not saying it will happen, but it most certainly should happen – and yesterday.”
I can’t help thinking of the role of the Praetorian Guard in making and unmaking Rome’s emperors. The guard started out as a small security force under Augustus to patrol the area around his palace, but grew until it was large and secure enough in its power to assassinate Caligula in AD 41 and proclaim Claudius the new emperor. This pattern of installing and replacing rulers continued over the next several centuries until Constantine abolished the Praetorian Guard in 312. I don’t want to be misunderstood– I’m not suggesting that the Secret Service is the contemporary American equivalent of the PG– only that there may be some formal or informal cabal within the Deep State capable of removing Biden permanently in the same way that the PG disposed of inconvenient emperors.
@GB:
What you’ve just described represents your side’s best (only?) change of regaining control of the course of events in the landmass on which once existed for a while the greatest of all nations.
BTW nothing special about Ukraine. It ain’t no Light to the Nations. It’s full of Ukrainians who are pretty corrupt and it exports a lot of tall leggy blonde prostitutes and serves as a Moolah Mixmaster for the ruling elites of USGov and EU… also happens to have biggish diaspora of You-know-whos who hate Russians for atavistic ancestral reasons. How would you like it if the Chinese were running a client state in Texas? Same diff. Russia isn’t going to invade Europe and force everyone to gorge on blinis. It’s going to sit back and watch those #$%&tards destroy their conventional energy production and then up the price of gas and laugh itself silly in Old Church Slavonic.
So… Be a Happy Warrior. Might have to be a real one cf. a simpering Buckleyite Closet Case on TV… but it beats the otherwise inevitable eventual assignation with Mister Smiley the Ventilator and Mistress Slidey the Syringe Driver. I’m wrong side of 50 and while I don’t see it all being Sunny Uplands… it beats The End of History. Chin up!
Praetorians you say? Sejanus… Tiberius… Little Fishes… Biden… White House Pool… Corn Pop….
An active imagination is not all it’s cracked up to be.
Zaphod,
Less flourishes please. I’m not going to even try to parse that last paragraph. Keep it simple for clarity’s sake.
That said, I don’t see Putin taking back control of the Ukraine as an indication of Putin desiring an Empire. Putin has wanted control of the Ukraine as a buffer against invasion. Nor does it matter that the Europeans lack the capability to invade. If Putin takes the Ukraine, the Europeans are going to think he’s got plans because now after Afghanistan they can’t afford to assume otherwise. In this case, perceptions will determine beliefs.
Russians take the long view. If the democrats do succeed in achieving one party control of America, Europe is either going to rearm because again, they now know they can’t count on a democrat controlled US Government, which given Russia’s history makes that a big concern… or Europe becomes Eurabia. Just over the horizon there are now lots more immigrants headed their way.
I do think that if even a few of the potential calamities I detailed above occur, it’s going to force the majority of Americans to take a clearer view of reality. Adversity either builds character or reveals its absence. There will be some of both of course but as Samuel Johnson so memorably observed “Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”
Hopefully before it’s too late. As time is running out for America and the world.
MBunge:
I’m leaving out nothing that we have gotten any reports on. Everything else is speculation. My strong gut feeling is that yes, Biden ordered it in terms of a lot of the details of what had to happen first. In other words, he set priorities. They advised him not to, but he ordered them to do it. Their only recourse was to disobey or resign, and they did neither.
I absolutely could be wrong. I’m quite aware of that. But it’s the most parsimonious explanation for what happened. It also fits with my sense of Biden’s psychological state and inclination. Isn’t this a withdrawal that looks as though it were designed by a dementia sufferer? Well, maybe that’s because it was.
If you recall, someone commented here the other day with a reminder that for a while LBJ micromanaged the Vietnam War even to the degree of choosing the bombing targets. So it is my sense that presidents have a lot of leeway about how much of the decision-making they will leave to the generals.
I have been saying that although he has advisors and handlers and guides, and they are very influential, I think that he is still a participant in the decision-making process. I said that before this Afghanistan fiasco.
But I think with this decision he asserted himself as boss in a particularly stubborn way and could not be dissuaded, because he had many motives to do it … It was emotionally driven. And he is Commander-in-Chief. No one could overrule him without removing him.
neo:
That’s where I land.
And after Obama’s birthday bash (wonderfully ill-timed) I’ve concluded he is less involved than I thought.
Though I still believe Obama was instrumental in clearing the path for Biden’s nomination after the Dwarves collapsed and it looked like Bernie was going to scoop up the Dem crown, then be annihilated by Trump in 2020.
neo,
Maybe these people thought they had more control over Biden than they actually do. That they could ‘handle’ him by nudging him in ways that they preferred either by omitting certain info or highlighting other info to get their desired result.
I don’t know. I admit I just can’t figure how this all went down because you are correct that this looks like it was designed by a dementia sufferer yet many of the other things they have done the first seven months have seemed to be carried out adequately (horribly destructive but that’s beside the point).
Maybe the moral is don’t prop up a mentally deficient, never was to be president because many bad things can happen.
Historians of our period will write with wonder about McNamara’s Morons and Milley’s Intersectional Mystery Meats.
I’m serious about the popcorn and enjoying the show until such time as active personal participation becomes necessary for survival. Contra all the myths, there’s no banding together of like-minded individuals to turn this thing around… It has to play out. The tape can only be run forward. The Thinking Right has differing schools of thought on whether to try to slow it a bit, let it run, or fast forward it… but can’t be rewound. (Extra bad news: it’s one of those endless loop cartridges ;P)
Whether Biden did this or the cabal surrounding him did that is fun to speculate about, but the One Big Thing the Porcupine knows is that it was possible for these people and no other people to climb the greasy pole and run the far-flung teetering Empire. The Many Other Things are just details and amusements for the Fox.
Zaphod:
I recall a guy (pseud forgotten) at Althouse who always ended his comments with:
Enjoy the decline, bitches!
There’s something to that. I see there’s a book on Amazon with similar sentiments. The Black Pill.
__________________________________________
The “End of America?” Most likely. The “Demise of liberty?” You betcha! The “Destruction of Western Civilization?” Of course!
But why let all of the above get you down? Learn to “Enjoy the Decline!” “Enjoy the Decline” is mandatory reading for all conservatives, libertarians, Americans, and lovers of freedom who are mourning the slow, but sure death of their culture and their country. America is over. Freedom will be curtailed. Liberty is dead. And above all else, it is inevitable.
But the answer is not to get depressed and give up hope. The answer is to change your attitude and learn how to “Enjoy the Decline.” You get one life on this planet and Aaron Clarey explains how to get the most out of it even though socialism and tyranny are all around you.
–Aaron Clarey, “Enjoy the Decline: Accepting and Living with the Death of the United States”
https://www.amazon.com/Enjoy-Decline-Accepting-Living-United/dp/1480284769
@huxley:
I’ve read or seen Aaron Clarey somewhere before. IIRC he worked for a regional bank running their Mortgage Pimping Sausage Machine in the run up to 2008 and had reservations but was told by higher ups to turn the handle faster. Seems to have lost his faith in Humanity as a result.
Imperial Decline isn’t all bad. Currently reading Robert Graves’ Count Belisarius — not quite up to the standard of the Claudius novels, but not bad. Lots of jolly good fun was had by all and even the Barbarians were good sports. Mostly. Eunuchs abounded.. cf. Milley.
PS: If you need some hilarity to cheer you up, “The Missionaries’” by Owen Stanley (pseudonym… it’s name of a mountain range in Papua New Guinea) is just the ticket. Set in the 1970s during decolonization of a fictional Melanesian ‘paradise’.
https://www.amazon.com/Missionaries-Owen-Stanley-ebook/dp/B01HJ5P53A
Griffin:
Yes, that’s the moral. But it shouldn’t have taken something like this for everyone to see it (not that everyone sees it, even now). It should have been 100% obvious at the outset. Joe Biden shouldn’t have gotten any votes, even with the coverup and protection. It was there for anyone to see who would look.
huxley:
I think Obama definitely pushed Biden as an alternative to Sanders. And I think Obama has had influence in Biden’s administration, although I don’t know how much. But I do NOT think he gave his approval for this one (don’t even know whether he was asked). He would not have approved. Too risky.
Covid may be the most impactful world event since World War I at least and little of it has to do with death and sickness which while terrible has happened on similar levels at various times since then.
But under the cover of Covid it allowed Biden to hide out in his basement and get elected and now we all see what that means.
Covid also played a huge part in the riots of last year which I believe had a ton of pent up too much time on their hands people instigating a lot of them.
Covid has also broken the Anglo world far more than any other sector. The protests in Australia today must continue or that country will be lost. They have no logical way out if they continue as they have been. Same with UK, Canada and US to slightly lesser degrees.
Everything in the last 18 months has Covid as a through line or an amplifier.
@Neo:
“You didn’t build that.”
“I didn’t break this.”
I reckon he might enjoy some surreptitious huffing and puffing in the general direction of a house of cards when there’s a paler face handy to take the fall.
50% me being contrarian (usually I argue against Obama pulling strings in 2021).
100% me thinking let’s see if it sticks.
“I’m leaving out nothing that we have gotten any reports on.”
But that’s what I’m saying. We’ve gotten leaks about how people opposed Biden but, as far as I know, NONE specifically blaming Biden for any of the disastrous decisions made regarding the withdrawal.
Maybe we will, but I would caution you against believing that Biden is the only or even primary problem here. I mean if, for example, Biden ordered the U.S. military to abandon Bahgram Airport overnight without informing the Afghans, why don’t we know that?
Mike
sdferr linked this podcast on one of Friday’s posts, and Dr. Lynch presents a lot of material I haven’t read or seen elsewhere that should be taken into account, mostly about India-Pakistan complications.
If he is correct, the hasty but LATE withdrawal was the result of an ultimatum from the Taliban to Biden because he broke the Doha deal by extending the pull-out from May to September.
Although no reason is given here for WHY he did that, it could be because the WH and IC didn’t think the Taliban had enough power to make good on their threats [so much for that idea], or they found out that, after jettisoning the Trump / Pompeo plan initiated in 2020, they no longer were able to get everyone out by May.
I scribbled while listening, so this is not a verbatim transcription, and I may have some details wrong; I left in a lot for context around the important points. I put the footnotes in a separate comment.
2021-08-19 Counterbalance | Ep. 24: Podcast – Afghanistan, What Just Happened? – by Michael Doran Marshall Kosloff
https://www.hudson.org/research/17197-counterbalance-ep-24-afghanistan-what-just-happened
Analytical core begins at 8:30 after introductions and credentials
> 11:00 Indian, Pakistan complications were a significant part of the problem in Afghanistan*, and this long section is important for understanding that the Pakis were using the Taliban and other militias as paramilitary forces to protect against what they assumed would be an eventual attack by India,
[whether overt or covert was my impression].
> 17:45 How Pakistan hobbled the Kabul government and managed the Taliban:
> “In the end foreigners leave and Pakistan had to have its own militia in place for security”
> 18:45 original US goal to eliminate international terrorists in Afghanistan (al-Qaeda specifically) was attained, but weren’t able to extend that to a stable Afghan government, because not acceptable to Taliban
> 2 surges tested the proposition that the US could change Pakistan support of Taliban, but both failed in that regard
> warning signs that US could not continually support the government were visible a decade ago, but no elegant way out
> 21:00 historical view of the Graveyard of Empires – post WW2 era different from before because of Indian partition & Pakistan
> 2012 death of Bin Laden minimized threat of organized al-Qaeda but there were still international terrorist groups in action
> Afghan Special Forces are really good – his personal impression based on assignments in Afghanistan
> 3rd surge in 2017 was a message to Taliban, but still didn’t change Pakistan’s existential struggle with India [me: is that the source of Biden’s phrase?]
> 27:00 Q: Did US ever try to make a deal with Pakis that we would ignore the Taliban if we were allowed to smash international jihadis?
> A: had 2 windows to try that in the last 20 years
> 1st kind of tried immediately after first invasion by Bush
> derailed by subtext of Musharraf’s response – it was not what we assumed
> US not able to have that conversation during the buildout of government in Kabul
> 2nd opportunity in Trump administration, but ambiguous about conditions
> note that removing contractors is even more important, and more difficult, than military
> 34:00 Trump was trying to do a deal with those who do have influence
[which apparently did not include Ghani’s administration]
> Trump’s 2020-02-09 bilateral peace deal between US and Taliban [Doha] was a conditions-based pathway for leaving**
> summary of conditions: institute a truce where neither side attacked the other [but no restrictions between Taliban and government]; Taliban agreed to not support jihadis; agreed to talk to government about transition and power sharing
> this breathing space and prisoner release allowed Taliban to form a shadow government to organize & attack Afghan regional forces
> Taliban followed through on squashing al-Q and other international terrorists, because they didn’t like them either
> Taliban made no attacks on Westerners until last week
> 41:00 gave the reasons Afghanis mostly didn’t fight Taliban [basically what we’ve seen in reports of combined bribery, intimidation, and presenting themselves as a viable government]
> extension of Trump’s May 1 deadline by Biden in March was rejected by Taliban as breaking the Doha agreement; they responded with threats
> we couldn’t have protected our remaining troops [the 2500] at any time, so Biden was apologizing in July for his tardiness in withdrawal [does not actually mention the new 9/11 deadline]***
> 44:00 despite some people’s assertions [presumably those claiming he should wait until the end of the fighting season to withdraw], Biden could not have “done nothing because no one [American] was being killed” – they weren’t being killed because the Taliban had been abiding by the truce conditions, and that situation would not continue after he extended the deadline
> March 26 2021 English Voice of Jihad published the Taliban’s statement about Biden’s violation of the Doha agreement, and their warning [very clear and explicit]
> not idle threat, as we have seen after a year of violence and intimidation of Afghanis
> Biden claimed to be not organized yet about leaving, but also claimed he was not abrogating the treaty****
> 48:00 emotional for all veterans who lost colleagues BUT this is not 1996-2001 situation & there is now a Great Powers component including China > Pakis may restrain Taliban because of ties to CCP
> 51:00 initial objective to eliminate terrorist safe havens for international attacks – succeeded because of plots hatched from 2003-2015 were stopped
> can dispute if costs too high but what basis of value? > wait for historical perspective
> 54:00 final question – recommendations for US on strategic goal going forward or challenges
*
see this symposium & the papers by Dr. Lynch
https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/134642/ER-India-Pakistan%20Security.pdf
https://www.hudson.org/research/11608-the-impact-of-isis-on-global-salafism-and-south-asian-jihad
https://www.strategicstudyindia.com/2015/01/the-taliban-cfr-infoguide-presentation.html
**
Trump agreement & deadline
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doha_Agreement_(2020)
“The United States agreed to an initial reduction of its force level from 13,000 to 8,600 by July 2020, followed by a full withdrawal within 14 months [of February 2020] if the Taliban keeps its commitments.”
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/2021/03/17/us-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan-trumps-deadline-weighs-biden/4667248001/
“President Joe Biden is under mounting pressure as he weighs whether to fully withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by May 1, a deadline negotiated by the Trump administration.”
***
New Biden deadline — his remarks did not age well.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/14/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-way-forward-in-afghanistan/
****
This seems to be an accurate timeline of events, based on my reading of the news posts; however, like just about everything published before this week, it makes no mention of Biden ignoring Trump’s withdrawal plans & disbanding the group that Trump tasked with planning for emergency evacuations.
https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/
“July 8 — Saying “speed is safety,” Biden moves up the timeline for full troop withdrawal to Aug. 31.”
https://nypost.com/2021/08/19/i-ran-trumps-afghan-withdrawal-bidens-attempt-to-blame-us-is-sad/
“We handed our entire plan to the incoming Biden administration during the lengthy transition. The new team simply wasn’t interested.” – Kash Patel
https://thenationalpulse.com/exclusive/bidens-state-dept-halted-trump-era-crisis-response-plan/
“The “Contingency and Crisis Response Bureau” – which was designed to handle medical, diplomatic, and logistical support concerning Americans overseas was paused by Antony Blinken’s State Department earlier this year. … The National Pulse understands that career officials inside the State Department objected to the Trump-era aim of creating a Contingency and Crisis Response bureau with the express purpose of avoiding a future Benghazi-style situation for Americans overseas.”
It has been stated by other commentators in other blogs and I have stated it here previously but I will say it one more time . . this whole affair was an ‘inside job’. If you view it from that perspective, it all makes sense. The British were infuriated that they were not informed of the sudden withdrawal. The Brits were our closet ally in this whole affair so why were they left out of the loop? The British weren’t informed because they would have shit their pants at the criminal negligence of the whole plan and the administration’s sham cover story of “oversight, incompetence, forgetfulness, and miscalculation” would have been blown. That is right . . incompetence and miscalculation are being used as a cover. Think about it, are there people in the upper levels of this government that root for the opposing forces? Damn right there are and one of them just celebrated his 60th birthday ten or twelve days ago. Does the big money that supports this administration and its globalist dreams care if the US is taken down a notch or three? No, it sees America as just one big, annoying speed bump on the road to total global domination and any reduction in American capacity and influence is all to the good. It is no secret that Joe Biden is an empty suit and does what he is told and, as such, he has been sacrificed . . all for the greater ‘good’. Biden and the nitwits that surround him will take a beating from the public and the press but that same press will soon find reasons to excuse and forgive this dark episode and before long it will all be made to disappear down the memory hole. No one will lose their job or be required to resign in disgrace . . and the wack-jobs in the Middle East will have picked up multi-billions of $$$ of advanced military equipment that they can use to carry on their jihad and continued ME destabilization. So too much of that stuff will find its way to the Chinese. The taliban now have thousands of hostages that they can use to wring money and freebies out of the US. And American prestige suffers greatly. Gee, I wonder how John Kerry and Geo. Soros feel about all this.
Geoffrey Britain on August 21, 2021 at 8:59 pm said:
Islamic terrorist attacks upon America.
?
Former Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s Brother Joins Taliban, Announces Support For Group
How Afghanistan’s President Helped His Brother and a U.S. Contractor Secure a Lucrative Mineral Processing Permit
@FB:
Get in a time machine, go back 70 years, put Evelyn Waugh and Nancy Mitford together in a drunken coke-snorting orgy, send their resultant misshapen love child to Evergreen State to study creative writing and had he/she/it came up with this insane scenario and tried to pitch it in 1995 —> would have been laughed out of the room.
And yet here we are.
@Skilly: Hanlon’s Razor (“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity”).
Skilly: Small paragraphs are the reader’s friend.
@z
would have been laughed out of the room…
Keep yourself in that room dude
Some they can’t look fare from their nose..
The comparisons to Saigon have been the most obvious first choice for parallels, but this officially puts the Afghanistan debacle in the Benghazi ball-court.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/got-all-kinds-cables-biden-explain-kabul-embassy-warning-not-heeded
https://sharylattkisson.com/2015/10/8-major-warnings-before-benghazi-terrorist-attacks/
“We had no actionable intelligence . . . about this threat in Benghazi,” State Dept. Patrick Kennedy later testified to Congress. “And therefore . . . I never went to the secretary of state and told her it was time to leave Benghazi.”
And I think we’re seeing—and it SHOULD NOT be surprising—the same “What difference does it make?” attitude.
(Of course, they couldn’t blame Trump for Benghazi…)
Everything is “optics” (until it isn’t).
Molly G. Hanlon’s razor implies that stupidity is perfect, that it never accidentally does anything smart by accident. This is impossible.
When you have a perfect string of purposeful actions without a single one having a redeeming quality, you have…enemy action.
I believe that the people who are actually controlling what happens in the current administration allowed Biden to take the lead on the Afghanistan fiasco because they want to see America fail. That is, the Obama cabal overruled the Clintonistas with whom they have been vying for power. Joe, being an addlepated old fool as well as a seeker of vainglory his entire life thought he was “boss.” When he “decided” to abruptly pull out our forces and turn the mess over to the Taliban, he was given full authority to implement the desires of his overlords. I am convinced he did what he did because he was a deluded old fool who thought he would cover himself in glory by ending our involvement in that forever war, but he was incapable of perceiving the utter ruination that would follow from the implementation of the withdrawal plans of his “advisors,” i.e., the globalist, left-wing, anti-American group put in place by Obama and his cronies, working hand-in-hand with our foreign enemies. It is all of a piece with what Biden has been doing since his “election.” Every action he has advocated or implemented, including the dismantling of our southern border, the infection of our military with SJW’s, the devastating lock-downs and all his economic meddling has been the end result of the calculated efforts of our internal and external enemies.
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There is no way in hell that Bidet made the decisions re: Afghanistan in a vacuum, all by himself.
His advisors (Obama hate-America first retreads) HAD to have participated and/or devised the disastrous policies that were implemented.
In their arrogance and contempt for the USA and in their zeal to humiliate the USA, they hoped to produce the disaster that is unfolding.
There is NO WAY this policy could have been produced by sheer incompetence and just plain stupidity; it had to be deliberate.
All that matters now to Bidet and his advisors is how to best “manage” the story. That is all they give a shite about.
What we are witnessing now from top govt officials – those that “warned” Bidet of the pitfalls – is the typical Cover Your Ass excuses so predictable from life long bureaucrats, other “appointed” officials and the top military brass .
What a disgrace.
Let not forgot 18 years ago the “completely disastrous” mission in invading Iraq and handed to Pro-Iranian…..
The man who was prime minister from the fall of 2018 to the spring of 2020 was drawn from a pro-Iran party, not his predecessors and not his successor. The current leader of the alliance of pro-Iran parties hasn’t held a cabinet post since 2014. The Sadrist movement is now allied with the Iraqi Communist Party.
As is said that the military has plans, made and constantly updated, for every conceivable contingency, so too the Left has plans and also keep them updated and at hand to use whenever they see an opportunity to accomplish some goal. Accomplish it even at a, temporary, cost to their power. Passing Obamacare was one such and it cost them the House — for a time.
This abrupt pullout is another. It will have a political power cost but whatever that plan’s goal was was seen as worth the cost. This pullout was not by stupidity, not by accident, not by incompetence, it was by design, it was by a plan pulled out of a drawer and implemented to reach a goal. Just not any goal that most Americans would agree to.
With no complaints, resignations and covering what was done the Big Brass must be fine with what has transpired. It’s still very early, late won’t be until Sept 12, so things have a chance of going bad to worse real fast and that might change.
Joe ( not my usual name for him) has to have very Leftists mind benders under him helping decisions along. The Left hasn’t yet protested any of this so the goals might be acceptable exactly as happening.
“As is said that the military has plans, made and constantly updated, for every conceivable contingency”
As has been said, no plan survives first contact with the enemy.
Mike
Under Obama, National Security Council changed from an advisory group, to micromanaging the military. Under Trump it changed back to advising, and shrank. It increased in size under Biden. I bet it’s back to micromanaging the military again.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2021/08/02/bidens-beefed-up-nsc-493813
And it’s head, Jake Sullivan, said the US Military was in the gulf, so it was close enough and everything was going per plan in an interview with Savanna Guthrie of Today.
https://theweek.com/afghanistan/1003758/savannah-guthrie-relentlessly-grills-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan
Al Queda and Taliban are inter related by marriage. See long war journal for details.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/
Pakistan Military has been heavily Islamicized, original idea was to reduce corruption. And lots of Gulf money building many Madrasas, so the originally more tolerant version of Islam in Pakistan got replaced by hard core, super conservative Wahabism. Losing every conflict with India has not helped and built a bit of an inferiority complex.
Pakistan has this idea of Afghanistan as it’s own satrapy. Pakistan has a huge amount of control / influence over the Taliban. And that they need the strategic depth. And Pakistan is also highly anti American. They feel betrayed by the US support for India. Pakistan is run by the military / Intel agencies, with a thin coating of civilian control. It’s almost a failed state, with nuclear weapons.
And the Pakistan military/ Intel agencies need to hype the India threat as a way to justify their budgets and control. Pakistan also hosts Islamic fighters that target mostly India. India usually ignores Pakistan, and is more worried over China. Pakistan actually helped China develop their own nukes, so they have long standing ties. They also were a back door channel between the US and China, with Nixon before his China trip.
It is difficult to convey the obscenity of conduct of Biden and his “advisors”. Evacuate Bagram air force base, the best Afghan airfield, in the middle of the night some weeks ago? Impugn the Afghan soldiers as weak, when 70,000 have died in the 20 year war, and they saw the Biden BS building and knew they were dead ducks alone against the Taliban? Left billions$-worth of military equipment including ammo, rockets, planes and helos sitting there as gifts to the Taliban?
And Gen. Milley, JCOS chief, did not resign in objection. Neither did SecDef Austin, whose main concern in office as a black man has been the non-existent “systemic racism” in our military. We have not heard a word from either, have we? But the British Parliament has just condemned the US actions.
The US is basically in its death throes as a democratic republic. Murdered by the Democratic Party and its worm, Biden.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2021/08/22/disaster-on-every-level-as-biden-closes-kabul-airport-and-orders-commercial-airlines-to-aid-the-evacuation-n1471756
This was posted about 3 hours ago so I guess these developments are happening as I write.
(1) Taliban “escort service” is a disguised form of hostage-taking and ransom. But the fee of $1K-$3K (and no doubt rising fast) only gets you to the airport. Where you will be jammed into hopelessly filthy and crowded conditions with thousands of other people hoping, begging, killing to get on a plane.
(2) No planes coming or going for AT LEAST TWO DAYS. Because the STATE DEPARTMENT NEEDS TO DO THE WORK THAT IT SHOULD HAVE DONE MONTHS AND MONTHS AGO processing all the poor SOBs who want to get out before they’re executed as collaborators.
(3) Strong chance that among the thousands at the airport there are a few who are not legit. Who are getting ready to get their 72 virgins in return for setting off their vest full of C4 or driving a truck through the wire and into the crowd; or into the parked C-17s; or into the fuel depot.
If you had written a movie script this bad, nobody would have bought it. Nobody.
@ RaySoCa at 1;08 (and everybody else)
Yep, the Pakis are the biggest supporters of the Afghan Taliban and guess what folks !!!!!
The USA provides foreign aid to Pakistan to the tune of $241 MILLION !!
Yep, our tax dollars at work.
The incredible stupidity of those in our govt. is beyond description.
Oh, by the way, Bidet et. al. is going to raise taxes .
Un F’n believable.
It’s the question everyone is asking.
Maybe the answer is the obvious one … blackmail.
Hunter’s outrageous and foul hijinks on an international stage. The obvious enrichment through granting favors to China, Russia, etc.
They own Biden. They may well behind this mess. Why? Because it has thrust us even more chaos, undermined the trust of our allies, and made everyone have to acknowledge our rotten military leaders and government agencies.
A comment by AesopFan on August 22, 2021 at 12:34 AM recommended a podcast, published by The Hudson Institute, entitled “Afghanistan, What Just Happened?” The podcast is an interview with Dr. Thomas Lynch, from the National Defense University. Lynch is a retired army officer with extensive experience in Afghanistan.
Here’s the link:
https://www.hudson.org/research/17197-counterbalance-ep-24-afghanistan-what-just-happened
Thanks to AesopFan for the recommendation. The interview takes a big-picture approach to the war in Afghanistan. I didn’t hear anything completely new, but Lynch’s emphases were different than those I had in my own mind. I think it’s worth hearing another point of view.
Examples:
1. The importance of Pakistan’s hatred for India. Pakistan’s support for the Taliban is rooted in the Pakistani fear that a pro-western Afghan government would also be pro-India.
2. The importance of the agreement between the Taliban and the US government that was signed by the Trump administration on February 29, 2020. Lynch argues that, for the most part, the Taliban have adhered to this agreement, which required American withdrawal by May 1, 2021. When that date passed, the Taliban threatened to renew attacks on American forces. This part of the podcast is most relevant to Neo’s question: why was Biden in such a hurry to withdraw?
3. As part of its Belt and Road initiative, China now has a large presence in Pakistan, and even a small one in Afghanistan itself. As they begin to expand their exploitation of Afghan mineral resources, the Chinese presence is expected to increase. At the same time, Islamist militias and terrorist groups will also increase their presence in Afghanistan. China’s treatment of the Uyghurs has greatly angered these same Islamist groups and terrorists, who have started to see China as the new “great Satan.” Islamist terrorism against the Chinese in Afghanistan seems likely. Will that terrorism extend to Pakistan and even into China itself? In the future, the US may become a lesser target for Islamist terrorism.
NEO: “But apparently Biden wasn’t interested in enforcing those or any other conditions; that’s how badly he wanted out, and fast.”
I don’t fully agree with you on this. One thing that is often very common and easy to see once you notice, is that they think power is in the office, robes, gavels, etc. That (other than they) no one looks them in the face and says untruths. For this reason, they never look back either, as if the outcome is always the hole in one, the no net, easy slide that they assumed it to be. Why check?
NEO: “Biden needs to be removed from office – and there really is, or should be, that is – a sense of great urgency about that.”
All Hail Queen Kamala!! (and queenlette Pelosi as VP right?)
No plan survives contact with the enemy.
Ike: “Plans are useless. Planning is imperative.”
I’m still not seeing how the Afghanistan disaster is a desired outcome, unless one believes Biden et al. are perfectly brainwashed Chinese robots and it’s desirable to destroy the Democrat/woke leadership.
Biden, Austin, Milley and the Democrats are getting hurt bad. Bad enough that it risks Trump being elected in 2024.
Speaking of which, here’s Trump channeling his inner Sam Kinison to torch the Dems:
_______________________________________
Everything woke turns to shit. It’s true. Look at what’s happening.
–Trump, 8/21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJyBs9XbYDc&t=16s
huxley I take a shot at it
America’s position in the world is weaker than ever
Opponents (Taliban and potential buyers) are well armed to continue jihad attacks. ( remember the Bengazi arms deals to Muslims by the Hillary State Department)
Immigration of possibly a half million Afghanistanis into the Western world
( being facilitated with dubious legal but official looking papers by State Department)
Skip:
However, what’s in it for Biden, Austin, Milley and the Democrats? Doesn’t this hurt them?
Granted, they are America Last, but they are also My Personal Interests First.
Biden’s performance in Afghanistan reminded me of something in the novel and movie Once an Eagle, in which the protagonists are two generals, Sam Damon and Courtney Massengale…the first is a rue fighting man, very mission-oriented, which the second is a pure careerist. At one point during the Pacific War, Massengale is conducting a victory parade in his own honor in a city which has been liberated, while not far away Damon is conducting a desperate last-ditch defense.
Biden wanted the symbolism of ending the Afghanistan war on 9/11, a nice round date from the event that led to it. That’s the kind of thing that is important to him. Biden, Obama, all their sort, are word people and image people. Nothing more.
Huxley:
Their Personal Interests as Elites are entirely compatible with America Last. The cream floats to the top, and they shall see to that. Who has gone after Hillary, Comey, Brennan, Hunter and his laptop?
No one.
Few recognize the intensity with which the Democrats wish to turn the USA into another Venezuela.
huxley. Maybe they are true believers with self-interest in second place. If it’s not too far second, anyway.
Cicero:
Great, America Last. I’ve agreed.
You apparently assume there is no downside for Biden, Austin, Milley and the Democrats. I disagree.
Biden is sinking in the polls, the media have somewhat awoken from their dogmatic slumbers, several thousands of American lives are at risk in Afghanistan, and this is another shot in the arm for Republican chances in 2022 and 2024.
Do you believe the Democrats will get off scot-free on this?
If this is the plan, it is an extraordinarily risky one and there had better be a big Chinese payoff to Biden et al. on the backend.
Maybe they are true believers with self-interest in second place. If it’s not too far second, anyway.
Richard Aubrey:
So, Biden and the Democrats are true believers in destroying America, even at great expense to their power and reputations. They are idealistic jihadists with their bomb belts strapped on and now they get to press their buttons.
I just don’t believe this.
Just watched his little press conference with hand picked questioners.
No pushback by the Propaganda Ministry, everything going as can be hoped for the best.
The one remark I’ve read on all this which seems to best explain it was in a tweet someone linked to here a few days ago: “DC theater meets reality.” My guess is that that’s fundamentally what happened here. Biden’s whole life is and has been DC theater. He’s so insulated from so much and thinks so much in terms of “the optics” that the image is far more real and powerful in his mind than the actually real. That, added to the decline of his already less than stunning mental ability and his natural dishonesty.
Not that there aren’t other factors involved, but I think this is the heart of it.
“Maybe they are true believers with self-interest in second place. If it’s not too far second, anyway.”
Not remotely possible in the case of Biden…few humans ever lived, I think, who are so devoid of idealism and altruism.
A sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice.
— Not Arthur C. Clarke
I find it entirely plausible that Joe Biden broke with his usual advisors and caused the Afghanistan withdrawal to go down as it did.
He has always considered himself a foreign policy expert. For example, he has claimed to be the author of the 2003 Authorization to Use Military Force in Iraq and claimed to be a Constitutional scholar when publicly addressing questions regarding that document. That isn’t the only example of this either.
While he has been compliant to the powers behind the throne his entire presidency (“I don’t know what I’m signing.” “Sign it anyway.” And he did.), he also has a thin skin when questioned (“Look, Fat, I don’t work for you.”), including turning on a dime against Democratic Party interviewers pitching him softball questions.
Given all of this, I find it entirely plausible that he deviated from his usual compliance and demanded — angrily — deference to his “expertise” in this area, and his subordinates, not wanting to directly challenge an angry Democratic president with the power of the deep state behind him, acquiesced.
Is that what happened? I don’t know. But the fiasco is causing noticeable damage to Biden’s presidency and the Democratic Party, and yet it continues. Despite the damage, somebody is obstinately sticking with this failure. In the press conferences and interview he’s given so far, Biden seems uncharacteristically and angrily wedded to this plan. It just might be him.
A sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice.
Maybe.
There is also:
Never assume incompetence, where self-interest will suffice…
follows from the audacity of a person of orange to set a necessary and sufficient benchmark for an achievement that will bear my mark.
I’ve been trying to follow all these thoughts and arguments, but what I simply don’t understand is WHY we abandoned Bagram before taking steps two and three. What military people would agree to this unless they absolutely wanted to bring destruction to the United States? Now all our enemies, jihadists and nations alike, have access to our equipment, codes, etc.
How is this disaster not like Pearl Harbor? I believe it can only be the work of traitors. Maybe this sounds simple-minded, but that’s what I believe. I would love to get some comments on this point
Mac totally agree
This could very well end up a disaster like Pearl Harbor we won’t know maybe for years.
In the immediate I think Sept 12 if it’s not evacuated those left are not going to be surge of life.
In longer term, areas around there have a military force to be reccond with in years to come. The aircraft can be sold off and most likely end up in Pakistan or China.
Those helicopters and fixed wing can be sold off
I’ve been trying to follow all these thoughts and arguments, but what I simply don’t understand is WHY we abandoned Bagram before taking steps two and three. What military people would agree to this unless they absolutely wanted to bring destruction to the United States?
Promethea:
No one seriously believed the Taliban would roll up Kabul this fast. Apparently our leadership was paralyzed even as they watched it happen. I’ll bet some generals are kicking themselves for not doing any number of things the week or two before.
Then there’s this:
________________________________
Speaking to people close to the administration, The Telegraph has managed to build a picture of a stubborn-headed and defensive president continuing to tout his foreign policy nous, and a staff too afraid to question him.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/08/are-bidens-aides-afraid-of-him.php
________________________________
As to Bagram … I guess they didn’t want anyone to panic as they saw the Americans leave or try any funny business as the last few troops left. For all I know they didn’t trust the Afghans not to misuse Bagram’s equipment. Besides it didn’t matter much because We Were Leaving.
The acronyms SNAFU (Situation Normal All F***ed Up) and FUBAR (F***ed Up Beyond All Recognition) come from the military in WW 2. The terms didn’t lose their usefulness because the military got computers and got woke.
Re: Biden…
mkent:
Good points. Biden sure doesn’t act like a guy who just executed a fiendishly clever plan to sink America’s credibility and help its enemies.
Maybe the angry doddering old man bit is a ruse.
My only complaint about this entry is the implication (I think it implies this) that the agreement Trump made was okay because it specified conditions, etc. In fact from the day that agreement was announced it told the entire Afghan society including the army we had trained and set to fighting that their days were numbered and the only rational thing to do would be to make arrangements with those who could make them offers they could not refuse. It is clear from the disintegration of the Afghan forces that they likely had in place the deals WE forced them to make. It is especially vicious and cruel for Biden to suggest that army did not have the will to fight when it was WE who did not have that will and that they betrayed us when it is in fact that we betrayed them. However, it was Trump’s setting of that May deadline, utterly pointless and unnecessary, that put the wheel in spin. Biden gave it his own, final, utterly despicable turn.
@Jonathan E Burack:
All true. Some Orange Man Clingers present will dispute vehemently I imagine.
Most Westerners live such cotton-wool padded lives that the simple calculus applying once a given date, let alone certainty of withdrawal being announced you just outlined just doesn’t register in their candy floss rainbow noggins. It’s not RAND Institute nuclear age game theory maths.. but they just can’t grok it. An IQ 80 goat herder (euphemism alert) can nut it out though.
Here is the real truth. You go into any foreign country against their will in order to change their ways and spread Truth, Justice and all that nonsense and you necessarily will end up leaving and betraying people because one day you must leave. Nothing is forever except human capacity for evil, stupidity and betrayal. Times 10 if you have a clownish political system and climate which makes late Peloponnesian War Athenian Democracy look like a good thing.
Only question I ask myself is Where is Syracuse this time? These idiots will be locking and loading for a sure thing Syracuse Expedition in 3, 2, 1…
huxley, et al. Why should the destruction of America harm Biden–he may be thinking? And the others whose actions most accurately fit.
It’s a two-fer. Reduce America to impotent confusion and still end up with a fat retirement. So goes the hope/promise.
That would go for Biden’s handlers. He just thinks he’ll be doing politics as he always has and damn the consequences. But if the US fails, not his problem.
@Richard Aubrey:
I agree that there’s plenty of Malice Aforethought in some quarters.
But if you look at Western Ruling Elites and their various Cathedral allies in academia, media, etc., the really Big Thing is that for several decades (at least) their personal successes and reputations have been de-coupled from and are almost totally uncorrelated with, let’s call it, National Success.
It’s really that simple. Lots of talk about Good Old Days. And for sure there was probably a bit more of this Republican Virtue and a fear of Divine Punishment wayyyyy back in the day. But really what produced American and any other country’s greatness has always been an alignment between personal ambition, greed, evil bastardry and the Common Weal.
Power-seeking people will always do what they can get away with.
I can only think of two countries where there has been a recent decades countervailing move to tie the success / failure and let’s be blunt life / freedom / death of powerful successful citizens to the Common Weal. Not coincidentally these countries are officially Public Enemies 1 and 2. Heaven forbid that Looters should be restrained and licensed and permitted to loot only within strict limits.
Also, for your viewing pleasure:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0LM3OsNSayY/YSLq6a7GpGI/AAAAAAAALwQ/ko1KmcfGLgAAFGDwuxrYOoC0fw4YooVmwCLcBGAsYHQ/s620/looozers.png
Milley isn’t wearing as many Participation Prize badges as a North Korean General, but still it makes you think.
I wonder how long before they all have to add the gay rainbow ribbon to their fruit salad?
Jonathan E. Burack:
I agree that deadlines to leave are a bad idea. I am nearly 100% sure, though, that Trump only used that deadline as a sort of goal if all conditions were met, and he fully expected that they would not be met and he would break the agreement until they were. Anyone who has ever studied Trump knows that’s how he operates, and as far as I know he made that clear to the Taliban.
However, if he didn’t make it crystal clear to the people of Afghanistan that this was just a goal rather than set in stone, also, that’s a problem. And even if he did make it clear, I’m not sure they’d trust or believe him. Setting a date is for withdrawal is always a bad idea for a host of reasons, I think, but I’m not sure there’s any way around the necessity of setting a target or goal date.
huxley:
You wrote:
“No one seriously believed the Taliban would roll up Kabul this fast.”
I believe that people in the State Department in Afghanistan believed it, and sent Biden a letter to that effect on July 13:
The Wall Street Journal reported the July 13 confidential memo, signed by 23 staffers at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, urged the administration to begin evacuating people from the country no later than Aug. 1.
The CIA informed them, also:
I think one of the reasons they are telling this information to the press is that they are refusing to take the fall for Biden’s catastrophe. Are they telling the truth? I believe so. It makes sense, and there is zero reason to believe Biden is telling the truth. We’ve heard him lie repeatedly in very egregious ways.
And the Taliban were talking over other parts of the country by leaps and bounds, so it was logical to think that Kabul would soon be threatened and might fall.
I believe Biden is lying through his teeth – or perhaps he just remembers so little he doesn’t remember it.
The Bagram leavetaking was no ordinary SNAFU. It was extraordinary, even for a SNAFU. The abandoned Bagram only because they didn’t have enough boots on the ground to defend it (according to Milley). Well, get some extra troops there for a while, then, so that you can defend such a hugely important place, at least for a while. Leaving it should have been the LAST thing that happened, not one of the first.
neo:
I was addressing the notion that the planning for the Afghanistan withdrawal was intentionally flawed so as to create this disaster.
Panicked memos in mid-July were too late to affect the original planning. And the Bagram exit was completed July 2.
I don’t see that your comment has any bearing on mine.
I agree that the Bagram exit was a poor decision. I can only speculate on the reasons. Are you suggesting that Bagram was an intentionally bad decision?
huxley:
This administration’s planning – if you can call it “planning” – was fatally flawed in a host of ways.
I thought you were addressing the fact that, as you said, no one thought the Taliban would take over so quickly. That’s what I was responding to. In fact, plenty of people did, and I’m sure they said it before July. That letter was just the last straw, I believe, and it came shortly after the abandonment of Bagram. I believe they hadn’t known Biden was going to do that so prematurely.
Perhaps you meant no one in the Biden administration in particular was of the opinion that it would happen that quickly?
huxley; Jonathan E. Burack:
By the way, I just had my TV turned to Mark Levin’s show on Fox as I was at my computer. He had two extraordinary guests on for the hour. The first was the former British commander in Afghanistan, and the second was General Keith Kellogg, former National Security Chief of Staff under Trump. Kellogg went on for some time about what the Trump agreement and the Trump plan had been about. The deadline in May was what he called a “forcing function” – something everyone involved knew was fluid, depending on when conditions were met and if they were met. One of those conditions that had to be met before a single military person was pulled out was that a coalition government had to be formed, with various conditions attached to that government and what it would look like (Kellogg described some of them). It was 180 degrees different from what Biden did. The Trump plan had been progressing for a long time, and that May deadline was known, but it didn’t cause the Afghan military to panic and defect or surrender because they apparently knew the conditions that had to be met first, and the US military wasn’t going anywhere till those things happened.
“The CIA informed them, also”
Don’t believe the CIA if they tell you the sun will come up in the morning. I can’t really fault Biden for not trusting the people who NEVER wanted us out of Afghanistan. Wasn’t it the CIA who spread or supported that “Russian bounty” lie that came out at exactly the moment it could he used to kneecap Trump’s push to get us out of Afghanistan?
Remember, the implosion of the Afghan military and government is an indictment of the U.S. military, intelligence, and foreign policy people who been managing Afghanistan for 20 years. If they really thought the Afghan government and military would go “poof,” THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN TELLING BIDEN TO GET OUT QUICKER.
Instead, they excused two decades of their own failure and said we should stay longer.
Mike
Zaphod:
Arrogance and ignorance again – on your part. I’m not sure where you get such confidence in yourself to justify all the dripping condescension that you incessantly express (“candy floss rainbow noggins” for example), but your assumptions are often not only not the “real truth” but simply false.
The US didn’t go into Afghanistan to “spread Truth, Justice and all that nonsense” (and truth and justice are not “nonsense,” although they certainly aren’t spread or even seen very often on this earth, and people disagree vehemently even on what they are). We went there to stop the Taliban from setting up terrorist training camps and giving safe havens to al Qaeda and Bin Laden. We also went in order to warn other nations who might think of harboring al Qaeda and set up training camps for terrorists that they would encounter a violent reaction from the US.
Once we were there and had accomplished that goal (bin Laden was neutralized and al Qaeda much weakened although Bin Laden wasn’t killed for a number of years, and the Taliban were not in control of the country, although they were not utterly decimated either), for a while we did try to change the country to a certain extent. The motive was not some starry-eyed idealism but the practical consideration that, if it worked at least to some degree, Afghanistan would no longer be a fertile soil for terrorists. But I would say that about 98% of the people in the US realized, after maybe a couple of years, that such a goal was not going to be reached within a reasonable amount of time if ever (and a lot of people realized it from the start). The problem with our leaving the country was always going to be that once we left the Taliban would be likely to take over again and terrorists would once again have safe havens and operating bases (the problem that had brought us there in the first place). That is why we stayed all these later years – despite two presidents in a row who very much wanted to leave (Obama and Trump) – albeit in much reduced numbers and with quite low casualties. It was considered to be less dangerous to stay than to leave and to have the country go back to its former state.
There were many choices about the manner of leavetaking. Many of them would have certainly caused the Taliban to ultimately take over, and would have betrayed some of the people we had helped. People were aware of this however, and the idea was to minimize those bad effects.There were plenty of ways to have done that, some of them involving the order of leavetaking, some of them involving violent retaliation for certain acts by the Taliban, some of them involving certain conditions being met before we left, and all of them involving getting our citizens (and other people such as those Afghan interpreters who were known quantities and had helped us out for many years) out of there before the military left. We might even have had to increase our forces very temporarily in order to do that. Then, when the military left, we might have had some special forces or intelligence operatives remain there in order to keep tabs on terrorist developments. We also might have kept a small force (or even some NATO forces) there indefinitely – we have such forces in other countries, too. My point is not to specify the exact way it should have occurred in every detail, but to say that there were many choices, all of them better than the way this administration actually chose to do it. It’s as though this was planned by an enemy rather than our own government.
In addition, there are no “Orange Man Clingers” here. That’s just you trying to be cute. Again, you show your ignorance. If anything, most of the commenters here are “Orange Man Latecomers.” Most of them took quite a while to warm up to him, and even then they are well aware of his flaws but they (and I) came to appreciate his pluses enormously.
In this comment of mine above, I describe what Trump’s plan for Afghanistan had been, and it was nothing like Biden’s. In my opinion it probably was something he would have had to have walked away from. But who knows? Trump accomplished many other things I thought he would not be able to accomplish, so perhaps it would have gone better than I think. We’ll never get the chance to see, however.
Many American politicians get huge bribes from China. Mitch McConnell is one prominent example. There are many many more. How do we know that military people haven’t also gotten huge bribes. Maybe the Pentagon general who withdrew from Bagram also got a huge bribe.
Although I can’t prove anything, I personally “believe” that China is running a lot of things going on in our government. Where do Blinken, Klain, Susan Rice, the NSA guy Sullivan, and other officials fit into things? I believe the Chinese run the Biden administration right now. We already know that Biden is the “big guy” who gets his 10%. The fact that he’s senile is a subplot to the story that he, Blinken, etc. etc. are traitors and so are various generals, including the one who withdrew from Bagram. “Evil” is a more likely explanation than “stupid.”
MBunge:
You’re missing the point. The point is not whether Biden believed them. The point is that he said no one told him, and plenty of people did. He lied or didn’t even remember. One or the other.
And although you may not hold it against him if he didn’t believe them, I strongly hold it against him that he was so stupid or arrogant or addled or all of the above that HE didn’t see what was obvious. He didn’t see it. He didn’t see that any plan like his was doomed to failure and great danger. The risk was inherent and it was way too great. His judgment was abysmal and abominable. I really have no words to describe how obviously dreadful his approach was and still is.
Getting out quicker would have been even more disastrous – not just to the Afghans, but to our reputation in the world and our future deterrent power, which Biden’s decisions have also damaged immeasurably. Trump, who wanted to get out, knew it had to be done carefully, and he was doing it in a stepped process that would have avoided some of these pitfalls. We needed to do it smarter, not quicker.
Lara Logan had some great comments on Tucker last week where she claimed that the CIA knew everything that was going on and that it purposely let the Taliban take over Afghanistan.
We should always keep in mind that the CIA can use satellites to read license plates. It can certainly follow Taliban troop movements.
President Elphinstone may become Biden’s moniker as this mess gets worse.
We should always keep in mind that the CIA can use satellites to read license plates.
I think it’s the National Reconnaissance Office that has that capability, not the CIA.
In case you haven’t seen it:
“A FRIEND WITH A LOT OF MILITARY EXPERIENCE WRITES”
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/469388/
Key graf:
“I hope I’m wrong, but I think the cost of blundering by President Biden, Gen. Milley etal has yet to be fully reckoned.”
We are not getting run out of Astan because the locals wouldn’t pose for a Norman Rockwell calendar.
We are leaving because….we don’t want to be there any more.
What looks like nation building is mostly trying to have a stable environment in which to keep a forward military presence in the region and that requires infrastructure.
A reasonably representative government–which thinks our presence is a good idea–is part of that.
There seems to be little evidence that the population is welcoming the Taliban back.
The question of whether we should be leaving is a separate one and cries about “America’s longest war” are meaningless. We either need to be there–and make sure we can be–or we don’t.
They might not feel like defending themselves or their Afghans, ahem, allies…
…but it sure looks like the Charm Offensive has gotten off to a flying start:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bush-era-nsa-head-says-its-good-idea-send-unvaxxd-trump-supporters-afghanistan
(If only they would fight the Taliban with as much enthusiasm….)
How does it go? “Let a hundred a**h**** bloom”?
File under: Unity!
And it’s double or nothing at the “Biden” Casino:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biden-stands-kabul-evacuation-laughs-when-confronted-poll-suggesting-majority-no-longer-see
JohnTyler is correct. This malice is deliberate.
I listened to “Backbone Radio” on Denver’s KNUS. Host Mike Dunn: two out of three hours Sunday were spend on this question.
Very few people see incompetence. Most see malicious break things destructionism.
Me too: a Cloward-Piven strategy gone abroad. For example, the host played a clip of Lara Logan’s allegation.
But instead of making people dependent on the state, domestically, the international aim is the opposite.
This Michael Anton article (I think it hasn’t been posted here — trouble keeping up!) reflects pretty closely the rationale at the time:
https://americanmind.org/salvo/afghanistan-doomed-from-the-start/
David Foster, huxley and Cicero, respectively:
“Biden wanted the symbolism of ending the Afghanistan war on 9/11, a nice round date from the event that led to it. That’s the kind of thing that is important to him. Biden, Obama, all their sort, are word people and image people. Nothing more.
Cicero on August 22, 2021 at 3:58 pm said:
Huxley:
Their Personal Interests as Elites are entirely compatible with America Last. The cream floats to the top, and they shall see to that. Who has gone after Hillary, Comey, Brennan, Hunter and his laptop?
No one.
Few recognize the intensity with which the Democrats wish to turn the USA into another Venezuela
=====
AGREED.
Perhaps you meant no one in the Biden administration in particular was of the opinion that it would happen that quickly?
neo:
No, I meant that no one doing the original planning for withdrawal thought the Taliban would occupy Afghanistan, and more importantly Kabul, by August 15. Memos from July 15 don’t count.
Perhaps there were a few such people. But on the whole I believe Biden and the military assumed they would have a few weeks or months more to withdraw, so they got sloppy.
They were wrong and the price is horrific.
Richard Aubrey:
I agree with you.
I also find that one of the many depressing things about recent events is that there is so much garbage analysis of what’s going on in Afghanistan, and I mean analysis on the right (I pretty much assume that the analysis by the left will be garbage). I read article after article on the right that doesn’t get it, at least not the way I see it. My point of view is much in line with yours. I was planning to write a post or a series of posts about it, but it’s a huge topic to take on.
“A sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice.
— Not Arthur C. Clarke”
======================================
I think this is Hanlon’s Razor, with the ‘Hanlon’ actually being R.A. Heinlein.
sonny wayz:
Indeed, viewed from the outside they become virtually indistinguishable. However, for example, if the perp is senile or otherwise has diminished capacity, it can be possible to tell.
And although they may look similar in many cases and be hard or impossible to distinguish from one another, they are not in fact the same.
From my point of view incompetence can cause failures that help or hurt different sides/people randomly. Malice will be aimed at helping/hurting the same targets every time.
In the case of Biden his incompetence is being used with malice by others but whatever is left of him seems to agree with that use since it is what he would do/has done himself in the past.
geoffb – “President Elphinstone may become Biden’s moniker as this mess gets worse.”
Okay, you got me wondering on this reference.
I don’t see anything particularly interesting about the Scots Peers, the Hogwarts tie is a possibility, and I recommend the Coles novels.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Elphinstone
“The title of Lord Elphinstone was created by King James IV in 1510 for Sir Alexander Elphinstone of Elphinstone, who was killed at the Battle of Flodden three years later. He was succeeded by his son, the second Lord, killed at the Battle of Pinkie Cleugh in 1547.” — etc etc etc to the current very-far-removed from direct line 19th Lord.
https://harrypotter.fandom.com/wiki/Elphinstone_Urquart
“At least some content in this article is derived from information featured in Harry Potter: Hogwarts Mystery. … Elphinstone Urquart (d. 1985) was a pure-blood wizard and a Ministry of Magic official for the Department of Magical Law Enforcement. He married Minerva McGonagall in 1982, but their happy marriage was cut short after Elphinstone’s accidental death in 1985.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Elphinstone_Hambledon
“Thomas Elphinstone Hambledon (Tommy Hambledon) is the fictional protagonist of many spy novels written by the British author “Manning Coles” (actually the two-person writing team of Adelaide Frances Oke Manning and Cyril Henry Coles) from 1940 through 1963. He works for a department of the Foreign Office, usually referred to in the novels as “MI5″ (counter-intelligence), although in the earliest books he is clearly working for the active overseas department MI6”
@AesopFan:
This Elphinstone:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1842_retreat_from_Kabul
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_George_Keith_Elphinstone
@sonny wayz —
It’s my tongue in cheek paraphrase of A. C. Clarke’s “any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” as an answer to Hanlon’s Razor.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke%27s_three_laws
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
@Zaphod
Correct, thanks.
@ Zaphod “@AesopFan: This Elphinstone:”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1842_retreat_from_Kabul
One wonders why this did not come up FIRST in the DDG search, given the context.
I also looked for a reference to “party like it’s 1842” (h/t Instapundit) and got nothing except “Historical events in 1842” of which Kabul was not in the thumbnail.
Hmmm.
@AesopFan:
If you googled ‘Lord Elphinstone’ search results could be a bit messy. Kabul Elphinstone never held the family title. He was a nephew of the then current Viscount Elphinstone at the time of his death in Kabul. So wasn’t a Lord Anything.
“Party like it’s 1842” would be a great search term if Curtis Yarvin (Moldbug) ran Google or Bing (DDG hangs off it). Alas, he does not!
PS: Last night watched Irving Finkel ‘teach’ some likely young lad how to write ‘Ashurbanipal’ in cuneiform. More hilarity!
Install a dumbfuck as president, get dumbfuck prizes.