Will the Israel/Iran ceasefire hold? And what will be the result?
One of my specialties is asking questions to which I don’t know the answers – such as the above. But I don’t think I’m alone in not being able to predict the future.
Israel is saying it’s achieved all its objectives in Iran and will hold to a ceasefire. I doubt Trump would have announced one if Israel hadn’t substantially done what it aimed to do there, although almost certainly some unfinished business remains that could be activated in the event that the ceasefire doesn’t hold, which is always a consideration.
“Israel has removed from itself a double existential threat,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Cabinet on Monday night, adding that the IDF had “achieved full air superiority over Tehran, dealt a severe blow to the military leadership, and destroyed dozens of key Iranian government targets.”
The statement stressed that the objectives of the operation, which began on June 13, went “even far beyond” the original goal, calling the achievements “historic” and asserting that they place the Jewish state “alongside the world’s powers.”
It also noted that in the past 24 hours, “the IDF struck hard at government targets in the heart of Tehran, eliminated hundreds of Basij operatives—the regime of terror’s repression mechanism—and eliminated another senior nuclear scientist.” …
“In light of the achievement of the operation’s objectives, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel has agreed to the President’s proposal for a bilateral ceasefire,” the government said, adding that “Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire.”
Meanwhile, Iran immediately violated the agreement (as I reported last night), with a deadly attack (see this). Was that a salvo from a rogue commander? A sort of “last touch” move? If it’s just the first of many violations, Israel certainly will retaliate.
At the moment, Iran’s position is unclear. But of course Iran is claiming a “great victory.” Does anyone on earth believe that?
Trump admonished both sides, and sounded especially angry at Israel. But I think that’s part of his attempt to seem even-handed and not appear to be joined at the hip to Israel. Meanwhile:
Still, oil prices plunged and stock markets rallied worldwide in a sign of confidence arising from the ceasefire pact, which was taken to mean there would be no threat of disruption to critical oil supplies from the Gulf.
I also think that Trump, Rubio, and the rest of the US team are smart enough to realize that Iran can’t be trusted, and they have developed all sorts of contingency plans. As has Israel, of course.
Interesting times.
Another reason for Trump to get a peace prize – Rwanda and Congo?
Not that I think he’ll actually get one – but look at this:
At the invitation of Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshekedi, the Trump administration was brought in to lead negotiations to end the war raging in the east of the country between DRC forces and rebels believed to be backed by Rwanda. A peace deal was initialed Wednesday evening by officials from the neighboring nations, and it’s set to be signed formally late next week in Washington by their leaders, and witnessed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the State Department said.
While many in the region will welcome an end to the long-running and deadly conflict, Daniel Van Dalen, a senior analyst at the Africa-focused intelligence firm Signal Risk, says the way the agreement was hashed out signals a major change in geopolitical efforts to end crises on the continent. The days of diplomatic soft power, he says, are over.
What’s “soft power”? Sounds like an oxymoron. Is it equivalent to Obama’s disastrous “leading from behind”? Whatever it is, it didn’t solve the problems there and instead featured “many previous failed attempts to secure an agreement between the two countries.”
Make of this what you will:
From his first policy speech, President Obama presented contemporary soft power as a vital element of power, referring to the power of attraction rather than influence, as defined by Harvard political scientist Joseph Nye (Nye 2004). To address the prospect of decline in a context of new international relations — to overcome a variety of challenges, including an evolving Jihadist threat, and competition from re-emerging powers like Russia and China—the Obama Administration tried to prioritise nation-branding, selling the American “brand” by developing new attraction strategies.
Blahbidy blah.
The present attempt by Trump in Congo involves the following:
If implemented, the agreement will end the fighting in eastern DRC. It could also bring billions of dollars of American investment into the region, which is rich in the minerals coltan, cobalt, lithium, copper and gold, all of which are critical in the manufacture of electric vehicles, smartphones, computers and a wide range of other high-tech goods, from satellites to military weapons systems.
According to the article, the war there has been going on for three decades – “forever war,” anyone? – and has killed six million people. It’s unclear whether this deal will actually work; the largest Rwanda-backed fighting group isn’t privy to it, for example. Once again, time will tell.
Let’s sing about the weather
And I’ll throw this one in, too. Pretty racy for 1953:
Open thread 6/24/2025
Want to see Pythagoras smile? Well, you’ve come to the right place:
Ceasefire in Iran?
Trump announces ceasefire:
CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!
DONALD J. TRUMP,
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Iran seems to agree.
Iran violates ceasefire by firing missiles at Israel.
What next?
So, how successful were the American strikes on Iran?
The goal was to degrade and if possible eliminate Iran’s program to develop nuclear weapons. First up is to determine how much damage was done by the bombs, and second would be whether some of the uranium was moved prior to the strikes. Furthermore, could the regime, or a successor regime, reconstitute the program, and if so how quickly?
And no, I don’t have the answers. But here’s some relevant information.
Iran says the US attack was a were flesh wound, but Israel and the US give preliminary results that are more catastrophic although clearly it’s early and more checking needs to be done.
Commenter “physicsguy” writes:
So I’ve now seen claims by the left that the Iranians moved everything out of Fordow 3 days before, and followed up with a supposed satellite pic of about a hundred trucks lined up there. Anyone else seen that? I assume AI generated to support their argument that Trump was duped, or that he knew and went ahead for political gain.
I can’t believe that the US and Israel didn’t have eyes on the location 24/7.
I’ve seen tons on that from the trolls at Insty and elsewhere. It seems to be based on this sort of thing:
A total of 16 cargo trucks were spotted on the access road leading up to the Fordow tunnel entrance on Thursday, but most had moved to a spot 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) northwest of the access road by the following day, Maxar said.
New trucks and multiple bulldozers had appeared close to the main entrance by Friday, with one truck very close to the main tunnel entrance, the satellite imagery provider said.
The significance of the activity is not yet clear, but Iranian state media reported key nuclear sites had been evacuated ahead of U.S. attacks, with enriched uranium moved “to a safe location.”
There’s no reason to trust a thing Iranian media says. So let’s see what Israel and the US say:
However, top US general Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave a more muted assessment of the strikes, saying that the full understanding of their effectiveness will “take some time.”
“Initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction.” …
Despite wide speculation that the nuclear material had been moved from the sites ahead of the strikes, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US believes that a significant amount of Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium was located in the Isfahan facility when it was struck.
In an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Rubio says that, while “no one will know for sure for days,” he doubts that Iran’s uranium stockpile was relocated before the operation.
“I doubt they moved it,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “They can’t move anything right now inside of Iran. I mean, the minute a truck starts driving somewhere, the Israelis have seen it, and they’ve targeted it and taken it out. So our assessment is, we have to assume that that’s a lot of 60% enriched uranium buried deep under the ground there in Isfahan.” …
He allowed that it would take days to know for sure whether the nuclear material was there.
Then there’s this at battleswarm blog:
Before the strike, video shows Iranian trucks lined up at the complex entrance. But the trucks look like open-roofed earth moving vehicles, not equipment transport vehicles. These were apparently used to cover the entrances with dirt.
However, there were a couple more specialized vehicles that may have been used to remove enriched uranium from the site.
“I can’t see everything important being evacuated in a couple of days. There’s bound to have been some equipment, some important equipment, left in here. The centrifuges, for example, can feasibly be dismantled and removed by truck, but is tricky to do, because of a base’s depth and will take time. And I think it’s unlikely Iran would have had enough time to do so. But Reuters does say that the enriched uranium had already been removed.”
More here:
1. Both Fordow and Natanz are under partial surveillance by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). … In several cases, the IAEA retained knowledge of infrastructure layouts and could remotely detect large-scale activity, especially if dismantling or evacuation were attempted.
2. This isn’t a warehouse full of sacks of potatoes. We’re talking about highly specialized, sensitive equipment, thousands of IR-1 and advanced IR-2m and IR-6 centrifuges. For context:
•Natanz had an estimated 15,000–20,000 centrifuges at peak capacity. Even after the JCPOA, thousands remained in use or storage.
•Fordow, while smaller, housed over 1,000 advanced centrifuges, some enriching uranium up to 60% purity in recent years.These are not items that can be boxed up and trucked out overnight. Dismantling a single cascade (a chain of 164 centrifuges) safely requires days of work, if not longer. Multiply that by hundreds of cascades, and you quickly realize this isn’t a quick getaway.
Additionally, centrifuges are connected to high-pressure uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) lines. Improper disassembly can lead to contamination, equipment damage, or worse, leaks of radioactive gas. Such evacuations would require weeks of preparation under controlled conditions.
3. Let’s not forget that the U.S. and Israel have had persistent, layered surveillance over these sites for years, satellites, high-altitude drones, SIGINT, HUMINT. Every inch of ground around Fordow and Natanz has been watched for telltale signs of activity. The idea that Iran stealthily evacuated multiple facilities without being detected is simply ludicrous.
Doesn’t sound all that likely to me.
NOTE: Please see also this article as well as this one.
Roundup!
(1) Here’s what many Democrats have been saying about the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities:
Their claim? The White House recklessly bypassed congressional leadership — specifically Democrats — before the operation, supposedly violating the Constitution. It’s a laughable accusation, especially considering that they had no such concerns when Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, or Joe Biden launched military strikes without congressional approval or proper notification.
The thing to remember, however, is that the Democrats are not addressing those who pay attention to history or who want the evenhanded application of a principle. They are addressing their base and those in the middle who either are in fact ignorant of history and/or don’t want both sides to be held to the same standard.
Speaking of principles, the Democrats have now simplified their principles to just one: if Trump is for it, they’re against it. It makes for the need to take some “interesting” positions.
(2) There was an attack at a Michigan church, and it didn’t end well for the shooter:
“The Wayne Police Department responded to an active shooter at Crosspointe Church in Wayne this morning,” the department said. “Upon arrival, officers determined that a security guard for the church shot and killed the suspect. One victim was shot in the leg. Please avoid the area. Officers are still actively investigating.”
During a news conference, Wayne Police Chief Ryan Strong shared that they did not know the suspect’s specific motive or why he chose to target the church, but said he was carrying a “long gun and handgun.”
“The gunman is a 31-year-old white male from Romulus. His motivations are unknown, but at this point it appears he was suffering from a mental health crisis,” Strong said. …
The outlet said that the armed suspect was on his way into the Christian church when a person outside the church tried to stop him using a truck.
“Several staff members from the church approached the gunman. A parishioner struck the gunman with his vehicle as the gunman shot the vehicle repeatedly,” Strong said.
He added that at least two staff members shot the gunman, which caused fatal wounds.
(3) Speaking of church attacks, this one was far more tragic:
At least 22 worshippers have been killed and 63 wounded in a suicide bomb attack at a Christian church in Syria.
The bomber opened fire as people were praying inside Mar Elias Church, in the Dweila neighbourhood of Damascus, before detonating his vest.
Some children are thought to be among the wounded, according to state media.
Horrifying footage showed blood splattered over the shattered pews and masonry walls following the blast.
No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack but Syria’s interior ministry said a member of the Islamic State group was behind Sunday’s attack.
ISIS, that is.
(4) Remember – it seems like a long time ago – the two Democrat state legislators in Minnesota who were shot, along with their spouses? One legislator and her husband died, and the shooter Boetler was taken into captivity. The left lost no time saying the shooter was a Trump supporter, but it turns out (in no surprise) that it’s a great deal murkier than that:
Accused Minnesota political assassin Vance Boetler wrote a deranged letter addressed to the FBI in which he wildly claimed Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz instructed him to kill Sen. Amy Klobuchar, according to a report.
Boetler, 57, alleged in the rambling, conspiratorial letter that the former Democrat vice presidential candidate directed him to murder Klobuchar (D-MN) as part of a supposed plot for Walz to take her spot in the Senate, The Minnesota Star Tribune reported, citing people familiar with the writings.
(5) Iran attempted a strike on a US air base in Qatar but not too much happened. Some say that it was a face-saving show attack by Iran (can’t find the link now, but it’s certainly possible – ADDENDUM: here’s some info on that) and that Qatar was tipped off.
Israel (and Trump) send a message to the Iranian people
Israel bombed some interesting targets today:
Israeli fighter jets on Sunday night struck the administrative compound of Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison, media reports suggest.
“Footage from the attack shows one strike hitting the entrance gate to the prison,” The Jerusalem Post reported Monday. “The strike was deliberately targeted at the entrance gate so as to avoid hitting the inmate housing,” the newspaper reported, citing Iranian sources.
Evin Prison, which detains opponents of the regime and kidnapped foreigners, is infamous for rape and torture of inmates by the the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) thugs that runs the facility and answer only to Iran’s tyrant Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
There are undoubtedly more political prisoners in Evin Prison than there were in the Bastille. Perhaps the attack was more than symbolic, but it was symbolic at the very least.
Plus:
Other regime targets struck by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) include the headquarters of IRGC-affiliated Basij militia and the so-called “Destruction of Israel” clock in the heart of Tehran. …
The Tehran’s landmark digital clock was counting down to the destruction of Israel in the year 2040, a reference to the prophecy made by Khamenei, the dictator of Iran and the ‘spiritual leader’ of Shia Muslims across the world.
The clock was erected in 2017.
Israel wasn’t finished. These targets were also hit:
“A short while ago, the Israeli Air Force fighter jets, guided by precise intelligence from the IDF Intelligence Directorate, struck command centers and assets belonging to the Internal Security Forces and the IRGC in Tehran, Iran,” the IDF said in a statement Monday. “These forces consist of various corps and command centers, and are responsible, on behalf of the Iranian regime’s military, for defending the homeland security, suppressing threats, and maintaining the regime’s stability.”
The strikes also targeted the regime’s most loyal Basij militia. The 600,000-men strong Shia-jihadist militia within the IRGC is often used by the regime to terrorize the population and crush street protests.
Again, that is very clearly directed in a way that should hearten the opposition groups in Iran.
And Trump added this message for the Iranian people:
It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!
And no, that doesn’t mean that the US is going to act directly to change the regime – although Israel might get a tad more aggressive on that.
None of this means the Iranian people have the will or the power to act, or in what way they might act. And of course the final result would be unknown – as is true of all shakeups and revolts. But to those who say “something worse than the present regime could come to rule Iran,” I’m trying to imagine what that might be. Worse than a leading state sponsor of terrorism around the world? Worse than an entity that believes it has the deity-driven dictate to destroy Israel, the US, and the West? I’m having trouble picturing just what that would be. Maybe the same goals, but more competent? And yet actually, helped along by the Obama and Biden administrations, the mullahs were seeming pretty competent until last summer, when Israel decided that they’d had enough of Iranian proxy Hezbollah. The rest is history – so far.
Open thread 6/23/2025
There’s something oddly satisfying about this:
The US has bombed Iran’s nuclear sites, including Fordow
It had to be done. And now it has been:
In a major strike after midnight local time, U.S. B-2 stealth bombers targeted and destroyed three of Iran’s most fortified underground nuclear sites.
The mission followed reports of six B-2s taking off from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri around midnight. While initial chatter suggested the aircraft were headed west toward Guam, Fox News national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin noted the true flight path was likely east, directly toward Iran, in what appears to have been a calculated deception. …
The Fordow complex, buried deep beneath a mountain near Qom and considered the crown jewel of Iran’s nuclear program, was the primary target. Griffin reported that multiple passes were likely needed to deliver two 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs or Massive Ordnance Penetrators, into each of the site’s two known entrances.
Each B-2 carries two such bombs. President Trump confirmed in a Truth Social post that a “full payload” was dropped on Fordow.
Natanz and Isfahan, both core to Iran’s uranium enrichment infrastructure, were also hit. Israeli aircraft had tried and failed to penetrate the underground Natanz facility earlier in the week, but U.S. bombers appear to have succeeded.
Those are the initial reports. More details should be coming soon.
And of course, there’s the question of what Iran will do next – or what it can do next. Iran has been at war with us – at a low level, although not a “cold” war – since 1979. Iran has been threatening to annihilate us as well as Israel for that same amount of time. It apparently was close to obtaining the means to do so in terms of Israel. Our attack on their nuclear facilities is the very definition of a preemptive strike.
Dance: it’s the attack
Please watch this video. I’m not keen on this style of dancing; it ordinarily doesn’t interest me. But the reason I’m featuring this is that it’s an excellent demonstration of an element of dance called attack.
Attack isn’t necessarily hostile, although it sounds that way. However, it’s aggressive in the sense that it’s a harnessing of energy in which the entire body moves very quickly and as one. It’s sharp and incisive, almost like a karate chop although not destructive. I’m talking about the lead dancer:
You may have noted that although his fellow dancers are doing the same steps, they don’t have the same attack.