It looks as though there will be a meeting between North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and President Trump:
News of the meeting was delivered by South Korean officials after talks with Mr Trump at the White House.
They passed a verbal message from Mr Kim, saying the North Korean leader was “committed to denuclearisation”.
South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in said the news “came like a miracle”.
“If President Trump and Chairman Kim meet following an inter-Korean summit, complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula will be put on the right track in earnest,” he said.
I think it can safely be said that people on both sides of the political spectrum were surprised.
I linked to a BBC article because I wondered what their take on it would be in terms of whether to give some credit to Trump, and here’s what they said:
Is this a victory for Trump?
Mr Trump has repeatedly belittled Kim Jong-un, and last year threatened him with “fire and fury” if North Korea continued to threaten the US. He has at times said there is no point in talking to North Korea.
But Mr Chung made a point of saying it was Mr Trump’s “maximum pressure policy” which had brought the parties to this point, a gesture which the president is likely to appreciate.
Our correspondent says Kim Jong-un has also scored a propaganda win, first with the Olympics and now by being seen to reach out to the US.
You can almost feel the BBC’s reluctance to give Trump any credit at all, but they did manage to report the praise from South Korea’s Chung when he made the announcement.
Actually, what Chung said was this [emphasis mine]:
I explained to President Trump that his leadership and his maximum pressure policy, together with international solidarity, brought us to this juncture. I expressed President Moon Jae-in’s personal gratitude for President Trump’s leadership.
I told President Trump that, in our meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said he is committed to denuclearization. Kim pledged that North Korea will refrain from any further nuclear or missile tests. He understands that the routine joint military exercises between the Republic of Korea and the United States must continue. And he expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible.
President Trump appreciated the briefing and said he would meet Kim Jong-un by May to achieve permanent denuclearization…
The Republic of Korea, the United States, and our partners stand together in insisting that we not repeat the mistakes of the past, and that the pressure will continue until North Korea matches its words with concrete actions.
South Korea certainly isn’t mincing words about giving credit to President Trump. That part about “not repeating the mistakes of the past” and continuing the pressure is, I believe, a direct reference to the lack of teeth in previous attempts to deal with the North.
It would be absurd to make any predictions about this meeting—including even whether it will actually come about. No one should trust the North Koreans, and I am virtually certain President Trump does not. One thing he is not is especially gullible.
Back in August, when the rhetoric between Trump and Kim was escalating, I wrote this:
Trump is a blowhard, but he’s also a wildcard, and that can work to advantage because instead of hearing a mere statement that some action is “intolerable” or “unacceptable,” the foreign leader to whom such statements are directed just might believe that a US president means what he says for a change, and that certain unpredictable but upsetting actions might follow on the heels of the “mere words.”
Of course, the danger is that the leader hearing those words may react in a way that escalates things mightily, and may not be particularly sane or rational. There’s not much indication that the current leader of North Korea is either sane or rational, and so any reaction on his part short of an extremely violent one could depend on others reigning him in, either China or “the North Korean leadership around” him.
And plenty of people in this country and abroad believe that it’s Trump who’s neither sane nor rational. But, as I indicated, that can work in several opposing ways—either to make people more wary of riling him up, or more desperate to fight fire with fire and not just limit the fighting to fiery words.
And of course “the foreign-policy elite…claim to be shocked.” I think they actually are shocked, and feel oh so superior in their own ability to deal with North Korea. But, as the editorial also said (and it actually understates the case) they don’t have much credibility either. In fact, they have next to none (with me, anyway).
That’s the problem with North Korea. No one understands enough about Kim Jong-un to be able to predict his reactions to what the West does. If anything, he appears to be even more unpredictable than his father was, and that’s saying something. Anyone seeking to evaluate the positives or negatives of what Trump said must take that into account.
I have little doubt that a great many things have also has been going on behind the scenes in diplomatic back channels. But if anything good ends up coming of all of this (and I deeply and sincerely hope it does), I believe part of the reason would be because Trump’s words of threat were credible and Kim understood that.
And if it actually turns out that the result is good, I would also dearly love to see the left’s reaction. Would it be something like what happened when the Soviet Union fell during the Reagan administration, when for the most part “experts” not only didn’t see it coming, but ascribed it to anything other than Reagan’s actions?
[ADDENDUM: Here’s a great and funny take on the Trump-haters’ fears that something good might come of this.]