Conspiracy, conspiracy, who’s got the conspiracy?

The New Neo Posted on by

Theory, that is.

The funny thing about the ubiquity of conspiracy theories is that some of them are true. The trouble is figuring out which ones they might be, because the majority are not.

Now that the Epstein death conspiracy theories are being floated nearly everywhere, I though it might be time to air an edited version of an amalgam of two previous posts of mine on the subject of conspiracy theories. The two focused on JFK assassination theories, but the points I make apply to all such theories.

I’ve noticed a pattern now too often for it to be a coincidence: people who believe in conspiracy theories tend to cling to them in the face of all evidence to the contrary. In fact, when they are offered evidence to the contrary, they often will not even look at it. Why let the facts get in the way of a good (or bad) argument? It’s easier to just raise more objections, or to repeat the original assertion.

I’ve mentioned that Bugliosi’s book debunking the JFK assassination conspiracy theories is very long, in part because it attempts to deal with every single one. Most people are not going to read the whole thing. But the first 500 pages or so are quite doable, often riveting, and present a ton of facts that are exceedingly convincing to those who have minds open enough to take it all in objectively.

The rest of the book can be considered as a reference—and a handy one at that, since it is also available though Kindle, and a great deal of it is posted online for free at Google Books.

Since Bugliosi has pondered virtually every aspect of the Kennedy assassination and its conspiracy buffs, he’s pondered how they go about their business, and he has this to say (see pp. 951 ff):

It is remarkable that conspiracy theorists can believe that groups like the CIA, military-industrial complex, and FBI would murder the president, but cannot accept the likelihood, even the possibility, that a nut like Oswald would flip out and commit the act, despite the fact that there is a ton of evidence that Oswald killed Kennedy, and not an ounce showing that any of these groups had anything to do with the assassination.

It is further remarkable that these conspiracy theorists aren’t troubled in the least by their inability to present any evidence that Oswald was set up and framed. For them, the mere belief or speculation that he was is a more-than-adequate substitute for evidence. More importantly, there is a simple fact of life that Warren Commission critics and conspiracy theorists either don’t realize or fail to take into consideration, something I learned from my experience as a prosecutor; namely, that in the real world—you know, the world in which when I talk you can hear me, there will be a dawn tomorrow, et cetera—you cannot be innocent and yet still have a prodigious amount of highly incriminating evidence against you…

…[T]he evidence against Oswald is so great that you could throw 80% of it out the window and there would still be more than enough to prove his guilt beyond all reasonable doubt…

The Warren Commission critics and conspiracy theorists display an astonishing inability to see the vast forest of evidence proving Oswald’s guilt because of their penchant for obsessing over the branches, even the individual branches. And, because virtually all of them have no background in criminal investigation, they look at each leaf (piece of evidence) by itself, hardly ever in relation to, and in the context of, all the other evidence.

Bugliosi is describing something I’ve noticed as well. There is indeed a mountain—or a forest, or whatever comparison you like—of solid evidence implicating Oswald, from a multiplicity of sources, such that it could not be planted simultaneously. There are countless witnesses to actions before and after the assassination, and that involve the murder of Officer Tippit as well. There are fingerprints. There are mail orders for firearms and fake IDs written in Owald’s handwriting and photos that are NOT faked (and that his widow attested to having taken herself—did she frame Oswald as well?).

There is an absence of all of this evidence for everyone else. All that is left is “well, this person talked to that person once” or “this person was acquainted with that person” or “this group had reason to want Kennedy dead,” and on and on and on. Tiny discrepancies—common to all prosecutions of all crimes that do not involve a video of the perpetrator committing the act and an uncoerced confession—are found and focused on. Witnesses might disagree on a detail here and there. Sometimes some change their story. Not every single fact is completely nailed down. But, as Bugliosi points out, the evidence for Oswald as the sole perpetrator is so enormously overwhelming that it has been proven not only beyond a reasonable doubt, but beyond a doubt.

However, doubting remains, and is extremely prevalent. A poll from 2003 indicated that 70% of Americans believe there was a conspiracy. The persistence of such ideas reflects, among other things, the fact that people are reluctant to believe that an insignificant individual such as Oswald could have committed an act that changed history. But it happens all the time—and, by the way, it was one of Oswald’s motivations: he wanted to change history and to change his own insignificance and turn it into significance.

Yet another reason for the prevalence of Kennedy assassination conspiracy theorists is that the sort of logical thinking that makes for the evaluation of a good legal case is not necessarily common among humanity. Critical thinking is difficult, and understanding a huge and unwieldy body of evidence is time-consuming and somewhat boring. Much more fun, and much easier, to poke a hole in a fact or two, to rely on outright lies or misrepresentations of what happened, and to jaw at length in paranoia on various and sundry discussion boards.

Bugliosi makes an especially interesting point in his introduction, one I hadn’t really thought of before, which is that although most of the people who believe in the various conspiracies are probably sincere in their beliefs, many of those who actually write the conspiracy books are not. They are lying and they know it, but they count on their readers not to realize this.

The Kennedy assassination involves an almost unimaginable amount of data and evidence, so much so that most of us have forgotten many of the details although we may think we remember them. Authors of conspiracy books—who generally are exceedingly familiar with these details—are counting on their readers’ faulty or incomplete memories.

On pages xxviii-xxix of the introduction to his book, Bugliosi points out:

The conspiracy theorists [most of those who originate and profit off them, that is] are so outrageously brazen that they tell lies not just about verifiable, documentary evidence, but about clear, photographic evidence, knowing that only one out of a thousand of their readers, if that, is in possession of the subject photographs. Robert Groden (the leading photographic expert for the conspiracy proponents who was the photographic adviser the Oliver Stone’s movie JFK) draws a diagram on page 24 of his book High Treason of Governor Connally seated directly in front of President Kennedy in the presidential limousine and postulates the “remarkable path” a bullet coming from behind Kennedy, and traveling from left to right, would have to take to hit Connally—after passing straight through Kennedy’s body, making a right turn and then a left one in midair, which, the buffs chortle, bullets “don’t even do in cartoons.” What average reader would be in a position to dispute this seemingly common-sense, geometric assault on the Warren Commission’s single-bullet theory?…But of course, if you start out with an erroneous premise, whatever flows from it makes a lot of sense. The only problem is that it’s wrong. The indisputable fact here—which all people who have studied the assassination know—is that Connally was not seated directly in front of Kennedy, but to his left front.

Bugliosi goes on to add that Connally’s jump seat was also three inches lower than Kennedy, and his head was turned to his right (which is clear from the Zapruder film) at the time the bullet hit. The proper trajectory of the bullet was therefore exactly as the Warren Commission stated. None of these facts are all that difficult to ascertain, and there is little doubt that conspiracy author and consultant Groden is (or should be) well aware of them. And this is just a single point on which conspiracists prevaricate; there are countless others.

Bugliosi continues [emphasis mine]:

I am unaware of any other major event in world history which has been shrouded in so much intentional misinformation as has the assassination of JFK.

The question is why? Bugliosi notes that conspiracy sells, and he is correct. There is no question that some of the motivation to write these things is to make money. But for at least some of the conspiracy authors and promoters there is probably another reason, which is that belief in conspiracies undermine faith in our government as a whole. Earl Warren had this to say about the matter (page xxi of the introduction):

To say now that [the FBI, CIA, Secret Service, and Departments of State and Defense], as well as the [Warren] Commission, suppressed, neglected to unearth, or overlooked evidence of a conspiracy would be an indictment of the entire government of the United States. It would mean the whole structure was absolutely corrupt from top to bottom, not one person of high or low rank willing to come forward to expose the villainy, in spite of the fact that the entire country bitterly mourned the death of its young president.

To add some thoughts based on events that have occurred since I originally wrote that, Russiagate and then the exposure of Russiagate has only underlined the believability of the idea that the government (“deep state”) did something as crooked and awful as killing Kennedy. In Russiagate, we saw a false conspiracy theory pushed about Trump by certain government agencies (or at least people in those agencies who were quite high up), and then we saw that conspiracy theory about Trump and Russia unravel as evidence has been presented for the very real conspiracy against Trump by those agencies. Which theory one believes is true should be based on the facts and the clarity and abundance and convincing nature of the evidence, and I think it’s clear that Russiagate was false and the Russia Hoax was conspiracy to promote a false conspiracy (something like the authors of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion). But most Democrats probably disagree with me, and see the reverse (Russiagate was true and its undermining was false) as quite obvious. I think the evidence is absolutely overwhelming for the side in which I have come to believe, but the others of course disagree.

And the entire episode only fosters the general idea of government conspiracies on conspiracies on conspiracies.

And speaking of conspiracies to hide the truth, a significant number of pundits have been asserting for quite some time that the far right was responsible for Kennedy’s death (I discussed the phenomenon at greater length here).

From my reading of Oswald’s testimony and demeanor, he was well aware that he would be championed and/or exonerated by those who would want to believe him innocent. His famous “I am a patsy” remark was a brilliant statement along those lines. Bugliosi’s book explains that Oswald maintained a resistance to police interrogation that was impressive; he virtually never lost his imperturbable demeanor during the time he was in custody. When confronted with clear evidence of his guilt, he calmly and arrogantly denied whatever implicated him, no matter how powerfully it did so. When asked, for example, to explain a fact that pointed strongly to his guilt, he merely answered, “I don’t explain it” (page 255).

Perhaps Oswald correctly surmised that others would do his explaining for him.

Transgender athletes retain their muscular advantage

The New Neo Posted on by

Color me unsurprised by these findings:

This study concluded that transgender athletes born male have an “intolerable,” or overwhelming, advantage over biological women in athletic competition. The paper stated healthy male test subjects “did not lose significant muscle mass (or power)” when their testosterone levels were suppressed below the International Olympic Committee guidelines for transgender athletes of 10nmol/L.

Further, it found these biological males could retain their muscle mass through training and that because of muscle memory, their mass and strength could be “rebuilt” through training. It also found that giving opposite-sex hormones to transgender people post-puberty did not alter the athletic-enhancing effects of testosterone on the male body…

We’ve been told the opposite by those who support allowing men to compete in women’s sports. They have said that transgender males who are on testosterone suppressants experience such a sharp decline in performance that they would have no unfair advantage over biological women in athletic competition.

Of course we have. And we will continue to be told that. Because science isn’t valid unless it fits the narrative.

And troubling things are happening in Germany

The New Neo Posted on by

Such as this:

German authorities have investigated hundreds of internet users over comments they made on a Facebook video posted by the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The massive probe, spanning over 250 investigations, was launched in response to the live streaming of a migrant protest by the Bavarian-wing of the AfD party in 2017, German media disclosed on Saturday. Some 97 people were fined and three others were to face incitement charges in the court, the weekly Der Spiegel reported.

The massive police investigation is apparently meant as a warning to anonymous internet users critical of the country’s migrant policy. “No one can hide behind a screen, not even with pseudonyms or made-up names,” Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann warned…

While authorities frantically search social media for traces of hate speech, the ISIS fighters are freely returning to Germany without any serious fear of prosecution for their heinous war crimes…

Europe has no tradition of free speech, and its hate speech laws suppress speech. But Europe is sitting on a powder keg of rage because of its policies towards the so-called “migrants.” The rise of nationalist anti-migrant parties is worrying those in charge right now.

It’s a mess, and getting worse.

The fruits of the Gramscian march: California’s high school curriculum and anti-Semitism

The New Neo Posted on by

Unfortunately, this is unsurprising news:

The California Department of Education is facing backlash after permitting a host of anti-Israel activists to build a statewide educational curriculum that demonizes the Jewish state and is said to be fostering hatred of Jewish and Israeli-American students, sources said.

Already, 83 pro-Israel and anti-discrimination organizations have petitioned the state’s education department to reform its Ethnic Studies Model Curriculum (ESMC) to remove multiple instances of what they say is anti-Semitic and anti-Israel bias…

“The anti-Jewish, anti-Israel bias of the proposed ESMC curriculum—including its implicit portrayal of Jews and Israel as part of ‘interlocking systems of oppression and privilege’ and its endorsement of the anti-Israel Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement as a form of ‘direct action’ or ‘resistance’ that students are encouraged to engage in—clearly exposes the politically motivated and directed nature of the curriculum and its drafters,” the organizations wrote.

“Not surprisingly, more than one-quarter of the Model Curriculum Advisory Committee members, appointed by the State Board of Education to draft the ESMC, have publicly expressed animus towards Israel and its supporters, with some members openly supporting BDS,” the letter states. “There is no doubt that these committee members have unconscionably used the state-mandated curriculum as a tool for politically indoctrinating California’s high school students with anti-Israel propaganda and encouraging them to engage in political activism against the Jewish state.”

Slowly but surely, the Gramscian march through the institutions is accomplished. Perhaps it’s already been accomplished.

And in semi-related news, we have this:

The European Union is poised to mandate that Israeli products made in contested territories carry consumer warning labels, a decision that could trigger American anti-boycott laws and open up what legal experts describe as a “Pandora’s box” of litigation, according to multiple sources involved in the legal dispute who spoke to the Washington Free Beacon.

The Advocate General of the European Court of Justice recently issued non-binding opinion arguing that EU law requires Israeli-made products to be labeled as coming from “settlements” and “Israeli colonies.”

The decision was seen as a major win for supporters of the anti-Semitic Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement, or BDS, which seeks to wage economic warfare on Israel and its citizens. Pro-Israel activists, as well as the Jewish businesses involved in the legal dispute, see the decision as an ominous warning sign that they say is reminiscent of Holocaust-era boycotts of Jewish businesses.

The left is patient and dedicated.

Epstein, suicide, murder, conspiracy

The New Neo Posted on by

People who believe they know what happened to Epstein based on the conflicting and shaky information we’ve gotten so far are mistaken, although of course at least one group of them is probably right. We just don’t know which group it is.

Murdered by the right? Murdered by the left? Murdered by the shadowy cabal that controls the universe? Suicide through the negligence of the prison system? Suicide allowed “accidentally on purpose” by the corruption of the prison system? In the Witness Protection Program?

Or perhaps behind that curtain in Oz?

My personal opinion, which is merely one possibility of many, is “suicide through the negligence of the prison system.” Some people find that to be the very least likely of all the choices. I consider it the leading one, but only slightly.

That may be because I tend to follow Hanlon’s razor, which goes this way: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” Or incompetence. Or bureaucratic disorganization.

However, Epstein’s death is one of those things that lends itself to conspiracy theories of all stripes. And one of those theories may indeed be correct. But I don’t actually think we’ll ever know, and I also predict that these theories will flourish for decades. The situation is just that suspicious and disturbing, and Epstein’s death is indeed convenient for many people.

One thing I’d like to clarify is that the term “suicide watch” (which pretty much everyone agrees Epstein should have been on) is not a single thing. There are many degrees of watch, and the most effective are the most Draconian and the least likely to be implemented for very long. The more bearable ones are nowhere near as effective. Here’s a description:

In many cases, any dangerous items will be removed from the area, such as sharp objects and some furniture, or they may be placed in a special padded cell, which has nothing outcropping from the walls (e.g., a clothes hook or door closing bracket) to provide a place for a ligature to be attached, and with only a drain-grill on the floor. They may be stripped of anything with which they might hurt themselves or use as a noose, including shoelaces, belts, neckties, bras, shoes, socks, suspenders and bed sheets. In extreme cases the inmate may be undressed entirely.

In even more extreme cases, inmates may be placed in “therapeutic restraints”, a four- or five-point restraint system. The inmate is placed on their back on a mattress. Their arms and legs are tied down and a belt is placed across the chest. In a five-point system the head is also restrained. An inmate is allowed a range of movement every two hours, when one limb is released and they are allowed to move it for a short period. They are then restrained again, proceeding to the next limb. This process is repeated until all areas restrained have been moved. This process usually continues in eight-hour shifts, and the inmate has a face-to-face encounter with a mental health professional at least once in each eight-hour interval. This cannot continue for more than 16 consecutive hours. The inmate is continually watched by staff during this time.

In the most extreme cases of self-harm, only when all other avenues have not worked or are impracticable,[citation needed] “chemical restraint” drugs may be used to sedate the inmate. In order for a facility to administer a chemical restraint, it must have the approval/recommendation of a licensed mental health professional, the facility warden, and a court order.

People who are determined to kill themselves will do so unless under those very stringent conditions.

But why wasn’t Epstein on even the more lenient type of suicide watch? That’s one of the things that needs to be addressed. Hindsight is 20/20, but even foresight would dictate some sort of longer suicide watch than was ever implemented.

Another thing I want to mention is the oft-stated idea that Epstein provided underage girls for sex with many prominent men. This is repeated regularly as though it is a given. It is not. Epstein’s proven crimes are that Epstein recruited and paid underage girls for various sex services to Epstein, and recorded these things with hidden cameras.

The rest—all the other men who are alleged to have been clients of Epstein’s in this repeated and lengthy program of sexual exploitation of minors—involve allegations only, and apparently most (or perhaps all?–it’s a bit hard to sort out) of the allegations are by two victims who filed civil suits.

You can read about that here. It’s very complex, but suffice to say that none of this has been proven and that some of the men named by the women, as well as a women who dated Epstein and supposedly helped him with the “business,” strongly deny the claims. And as far as I know there is absolutely no independent evidence of these people’s involvement in the illegal sexual activities in which Epstein himself definitely engaged.

The perception that these particular accusers of enormous numbers of the rich and famous were telling the truth was (and still is) helped along by a number of factors: the tabloid and/or politically-motivated press and internet and the natural tendency of many people to believe in conspiracies by the rich and powerful. In addition, the proven fact of Epstein’s guilt in his own exploitative sexual activities lends itself to the idea of tremendous and widespread corruption of a similar nature at the highest ranks. But Epstein knew a lot of famous people; he was a powerful guy (or someone who certainly seemed powerful) and one with a wealthy and sociable lifestyle, and there were a lot of more obvious and clear perks to knowing him than sexual relations with minors for pay.

I’m always skeptical of the sort of allegations featured in this case about the additional people, until I see the evidence. So I remain skeptical here, as well. But that could change and is certainly not set in stone.

My current theory remains: suicide, and a negligent prison administration. And a lot of false allegations about a lot of people other than Epstein. But that theory of mine is a weak leader rather than a very strong one.

One thing I will add is that this story makes me feel weary and almost ill. Whatever happened, it’s sordid and disturbing. Which do you prefer, a dangerous and enormous conspiracy or a dangerous incompetence? Take your pick.

[NOTE: I fully expect most people to find me way too naive here. But actually, I am highly skeptical—even of conspiracies. That does not mean they don’t exist. But my threshold is probably higher for believing in them than that of most people.]

Biden’s gaffe is the left’s truth

The New Neo Posted on by

Which gaffe of Biden’s? I’m talking about this one:

Everybody knows who Donald Trump is. Even his supporters know who he is. We got to let him know who we are. We choose unity over division. We choose science over fiction. We choose truth over facts.

Everybody keeps referring to that last sentence of the paragraph as a “gaffe,” and so I called it that in the title of this post. And I suppose it’s possible that it’s some sort of slip or error by Biden. But let me take the whole paragraph, one sentence at a time.

!. Everybody knows who Donald Trump is.

Oh, really? People see what they want to see and read what they want to read, and there are many echo chambers. How many people really look at the objective truth, or read all sides? I suspect that Biden (or his speechwriters) believe that his listeners—or at least, the audience he’s addressing, Democratic primary votes—think they know exactly who Trump is: racist, liar, white supremacist, Russian tool, president by deception, rapist, criminal. These things often can and have been easily proven to rest on invalid assumptions. But Biden’s audience believes they are truth.

2. Even his supporters know who he is.

And they disagree with Biden and Democrats about who Trump is. But that sentence of Biden’s—which granted, is a bit inscrutable—seems to me to be implying that even Trump’s supporters know that Trump is all those things I just listed, and they don’t care or they applaud it, because they are bigots and liars, too.

3. We got to let him know who we are.

I guess Democrats have been hiding on a desert island for the past twenty years, with radio silence imposed. I guess it’s just now that they need and are able to show us who they are, because we haven’t been able to observe who they are till now.

4. We choose unity over division.

That would be humorous if it didn’t reflect another “truth” that Democrats seem to believe about themselves, or at least like to present as the truth about themselves. But it is positively Orwellian. Division is their middle name, their modus operandi, their main tactic.

5. We choose science over fiction.

Democrats love to present themselves as the science lovers. But if any finding of science contradicts the preferred leftist narrative, it is considered heresy. See what happened to Larry Summers way back when he dared to mention the idea that the fact that women are underrepresented at the very highest levels of science should be studied. The left chooses fiction quite often, plus silencing and hounding out the person who wants discussion and further research on the science they find so offensive. There are myriad examples of this behavior. See this piece for much much more on the subject.

6. We choose truth over facts.

In light of what I’ve already written here, that sentence follows as the day follows night. The left does choose “truth over facts.” After all, isn’t that what “a higher truth” is about? Fake but accurate.

Gaffe or not? You be the judge.

ADDENDUM: Oh, boy.

Not a good sign:

How the hoax funnel works: Trump and those “fine people”

The New Neo Posted on by

Commenter Kate recently alerted me to this good piece by Scott Adams entitled, “The ‘Fine People’ Hoax Funnel”. It’s well worth reading. I missed it first time around, but better late than never.

It’s not just applicable to the “fine people” myth. It spotlights techniques used by people to hold onto any pre-existing belief in the face of evidence to the contrary.

The consensus seems to be that Epstein’s death…

The New Neo Posted on by

…was murder. For the right it’s obviously the Clintons who contracted for the deed, and for the left it couldn’t be clearer that the culprits are their favorites, Trump and the Russians.

But I think the most likely explanation is that Epstein actually killed himself.

I can hear you saying, “Ah, neo, you naive fool!” I’ve heard that before. I hear it whenever I post something about Oswald having been the lone assassin of Kennedy. I heard it incessantly when I asserted that Bernie Madoff’s sons were innocent (and I have never seen a single thing to dissuade me from that belief). I fully expect to hear it now.

When I first read about Epstein’s death I had a number of thoughts. One of them was that, of course, the conspiracy theories would come instantly and variously. But I had some questions, too, and the two leaders were what kind of suicide watch Epstein was on, and what was the material or implement used to kill him.

At first I didn’t see any articles that were able to answer those two questions, which seem central to me. And I still haven’t read any details of how. But then it began to emerge that he was not on suicide watch at all.

What on earth?

All the articles I initially read about Epstein stated that he had been on suicide watch. Were they just assuming that? Do we really know? From the article I just linked:

Department of Justice spokesman Lee Plourde told The Post that Epstein, 66, was not “currently” on watch in his cell at the Manhattan Correctional Facility while he awaited trial on child sex-trafficking charges.

Plourde refused to say whether that meant Epstein had been taken off additional monitoring or whether he had never been getting special attention to make sure he did not kill himself.

“I’m not going to discuss his previous medical status,” he said…

It is also unclear if Epstein was in a cell by himself or shared his cell.

As an old boyfriend of mine used to say, clear as mud.

It’s not hard to understand why the conspiracy theories are flying. I acknowledge that the situation is exceedingly suspicious, and the lack of detail or explanation feeds into the conspiracy theory mindset. I will add that I certainly would not be the least bit surprised if it turned out that Epstein was indeed killed by someone, either another inmate or someone who didn’t want him to talk. But I don’t think we’ll ever know.

Here’s more from the NY Times:

But one federal prison official with knowledge of the incident said Mr. Epstein had been taken off suicide watch a few days ago, and was being held alone in a cell in a special housing unit.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of being fired, said guards found Mr. Epstein in the empty cell during morning rounds. He had hanged himself and he appeared to be dead…

To take an inmate off suicide watch a “post-watch report” needs to be completed, which includes an analysis of how the inmate’s circumstances have changed and why that merits removal from the watch.

As I said, however, at this point (subject to revision as facts emerge) I think it most likely that Epstein actually did kill himself, and I think it most likely that the prison administrators were negligent rather than purposely setting him up.

In the comments to a previous thread, “R.C.” wrote, in a comment that I think states what the vast majority of people believe: “The notion that [Epstein] actually killed himself — when already on suicide watch — seems too vanishingly unlikely to be worthy of consideration.”

However, it seems Epstein wasn’t on suicide watch, although he had been until very recently. But even if he had been on suicide watch at the time of his death, the fact is that people sometimes do kill themselves under such circumstances, depending on the type of watch it is. Although successful suicides under watch are rare, some people are so determined to kill themselves that they can find very creative ways (see this).

If you want to get up to speed on all the varieties of suicide watch, take a look here (see also this). Usually the most stringent sort of suicide watch is not used, for reasons that will become obvious if you read the link.

But the main reason I think it at least somewhat likely that Epstein committed suicide is that his motivation to do so was probably very powerful. Think about it. By his own standards he’d had many decades of an exciting ride, full of money and famous people and the ability to fulfill his kinky sexual proclivities. But his fun life as he knew it was over. He was facing the prospect of being locked up for his remaining years, after a trial that exposed his worst deeds and also probably was going to feature a lot of lies about him too, from pilers-on. He is a figure of enormous revulsion from most of the world. He’s 66 years old. He has neither wife nor children.

Why would the man I just described not want to kill himself? What does he have to live for? And where there’s a will, there’s generally a way.

When I first read that they were charging Epstein again, despite his previous (suspiciously mild) plea deal, I wrote the following (and I suggest you read the whole post for some additional background):

I was just reading an email from a reader who mentioned that the real target of the SDNY action against Epstein is Trump. Just as occurred with many of the prosecutions related to the Mueller investigation, the idea is to get the accused to turn on Trump in exchange for some sort of leniency.

Well, naturally. And even if Epstein himself doesn’t give them what they want, the press can report all sorts of rumors about it. The fact that Bill Clinton has a far greater paper trail that potentially implicates him in terms of Epstein is of no importance whatsoever to present-day Democrats, who consider him (and his wife, to a certain extent) as a Great White Albatross.

On, and another person connected with Trump who can be slammed (probably correctly, in this case) is Trump’s Secretary of Labor, Alexander Acosta, who years ago was the US Attorney instrumental in arranging the previous lenient deal that let Epstein off surprisingly lightly…

As I connect the dots, there might be some genuine outrage at how relatively lightly Epstein got off, but far more important in terms of motive was the opportunity to distract the public and call its attention to Acosta, who had nothing to do with Trump at the time as far as I know but who now serves under him, and then potentially to Trump. That Clinton and others might be collateral damage is of no importance to them by now; he’s become a liability anyway.

I continue to believe that the opportunity to get Trump, even though there is actually nothing that has emerged implicating Trump in relation to Epstein’s crimes at all, was paramount in precipitating this new action against Epstein. Now it has resulted in Epstein’s death, which serves the purpose of keeping the conspiracy theories alive—probably forever.

Andrew C. McCarthy has a new book out on Russiagate

The New Neo Posted on by

I think that anything by Andrew C. McCarthy is likely to be worth reading, so I call your attention to his new book Ball of Collusion: The Plot to Rig an Election and Destroy a Presidency. Keep in mind that McCarthy was never a Trump fan. But he is a big supporter of the rule of law, and Russiagate has shocked him to his core.

While we’re at it, you might want to take a look back at Watergate and some new information.

Hong Kong unrest continues…

The New Neo Posted on by

…and China seems to me to hold the cards.

I remember that, in the late 1990s when I heard that Hong Kong would ultimately be turned over to China, I got a chill of foreboding. Hong Kong was being sacrificed, and the assurances that China would not impose itself unduly on Hong Kong seemed hollow.

Going back now to review what happened over decades ago during the lengthy negotiations, I find this, which occurred during Margaret Thatcher’s first visit to Chine in 1982, after Chinese leaders had already been working the UN for many years (since mainland China’s entry into that august [sarc] body in 1971) and agitating for the takeover of Hong Kong when the British lease would expire in 1997:

In light of the increasing openness of the PRC [Chinese] government and economic reforms on the mainland, the then British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sought the PRC’s agreement to a continued British presence in the territory.

However, the PRC took a contrary position: not only did the PRC wish for the New Territories, on lease until 1997, to be placed under the PRC’s jurisdiction, it also refused to recognise the “unfair and unequal treaties” under which Hong Kong Island and Kowloon had been ceded to Britain in perpetuity. Consequently, the PRC recognised only the British administration in Hong Kong, but not British sovereignty…

During talks with Thatcher, China planned to invade and seize Hong Kong if the negotiations set off unrest in the colony. Thatcher later said that Deng told her bluntly that China could easily take Hong Kong by force, stating that “I could walk in and take the whole lot this afternoon”, to which she replied that “there is nothing I could do to stop you, but the eyes of the world would now know what China is like”…

Actually, I think that at that time most of the world already knew.

More:

During the reception of former British Prime Minister Edward Heath during his sixth visit to the PRC, Deng Xiaoping commented quite clearly on the impossibility of exchanging sovereignty for administration, declaring an ultimatum: the British government must modify or give up its position or the PRC will announce its resolution of the issue of Hong Kong sovereignty unilaterally…

In accordance with the “One country, two systems” principle agreed between the United Kingdom and the People’s Republic of China, the socialist system of the People’s Republic of China would not be practised in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), and Hong Kong’s previous capitalist system and its way of life would remain unchanged for a period of 50 years. This would have left Hong Kong unchanged until 2047.

However, many in Hong Kong weren’t buying it, and I certainly don’t blame them:

After the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989, the Executive Councillors and the Legislative Councillors of Hong Kong unexpectedly held an urgent meeting, in which they agreed unanimously that the British Government should give the people of Hong Kong the right of abode in the United Kingdom.

More than 10,000 Hong Kong residents rushed to Central in order to get an application form for residency in the United Kingdom. On the eve of the deadline, over 100,000 lined up overnight for a British National (Overseas) application form. While mass migration began well before 1989, the event led to the peak migration year in 1992 with 66,000 leaving.

Many citizens were pessimistic towards the future of Hong Kong and the transfer of the region’s sovereignty. A tide of emigration, which was to last for no less than five years, broke out. At its peak, citizenship of small countries, such as Tonga, was also in great demand.

Singapore, which also had a predominantly Chinese population, was another popular destination

No one should be sanguine about China’s intentions, then or now.

Here’s an article about recent developments:

The Chinese authorities acknowledge Hong Kong’s unrest is the worst since they regained the former British colony 22 years ago. Yet they have so far denied a key protester demand that even Beijing sympathizers support.

On Wednesday, the head of China’s top agency overseeing the city ruled out an independent inquiry into the unrest, one of the few protester requests with support from business leaders and others who typically back the government…

I fear that this will not end well.

JD Salinger caused the death of Lennon, right?

The New Neo Posted on by

Of course he didn’t. But that’s something like the argument they’re using for El Paso and Trump.

[NOTE: If you don’t know what I’m referring to, it’s this:

Officers Steven Spiro and Peter Cullen were the first policemen to arrive at the scene; they were at 72nd Street and Broadway when they heard a report of shots fired at the Dakota. The officers arrived around two minutes later and found Chapman standing very calmly on West 72nd Street. They reported that Chapman had dropped the revolver to the ground and was holding a paperback book, J. D. Salinger’s The Catcher in the Rye. Later, he claimed, “If you were able to view the actual copy of The Catcher in the Rye that was taken from me on the night of Dec. 8, you would find in it the handwritten words, ‘This is my statement.'” They immediately put Chapman in handcuffs and placed him in the back seat of their squad car. Chapman made no attempt to flee or resist arrest.

Twisted minds are twisted, and they are “inspired” by strange things.]