Commenter “Hubert” states my own thoughts on the matter quite well when he writes:
Now comes news that Trump is threatening Putin with more sanctions to get him to the negotiating table. Unlike mkent, I suspect there is method to Trump’s behavior. There better be, because mkent is correct when he says that Trump is disrupting the entire postwar and post-Cold War security system. I think it badly needed to be disrupted, but this is turning into a queasy-making rollercoaster ride. Dangerous times; high stakes.
The question is whether Trump actually is a loose cannon or whether there is method to his madness – and if the latter, whether that method will work.
Is Trump talking about leaving NATO? Ending America’s nuclear protection entirely for Europe? Withdrawing all troops from Europe? If so, I haven’t seen it. What I do see is that Trump is aiming to have Europe participate more in its own defense. The idea is that we are spread too thin. As Hubert also writes:
I think it was the Polish PM who recently pointed out that “Europe (450 million people) is demanding that the United States (300 million people) defend it against Russia (140 million people).” That’s ridiculous and unsustainable. Mkent referred on the other thread to Tusk talking about maybe developing a Polish nuclear deterrent, like that’s a bad thing. I think it’s a good thing. It shows that some of the Europeans are getting serious about their own defense. As for mkent’s fear that proliferation will inevitably lead to WWIII and nukes flying all over the world, I would point to India and Pakistan. Two nuclear powers that hate each other’s guts but have somehow managed to avoid going to all-out war. Strategist Bernard Brodie rightly called nuclear weapons “the absolute weapon” in his 1946 book of the same name. By that token, they’re the ultimate deterrent.
This is one of a host of reasons why I’m glad I’m not president. I could not even begin to make decisions of that magnitude.
However, change is inherently frightening because all change can backfire. 9/11 sparked a big change here, because I don’t think that without it George W. Bush would have started wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. 9/11 changed the trajectory of his entire presidency in terms of foreign policy. And during Obama’s presidency, foreign policy changed a great deal also, and I’m hard-pressed to find that any of it was for the better; same for Biden and company. All of those events made it clear that US foreign policy could change on a dime between one president and another.
Western European leaders can’t stand Trump. But they felt the same way during his first term. They laughed at him when he warned them they were too dependent on Russian energy sources – a warning which turned out to be very prescient indeed. But Western Europeans already had a great deal of resentment and contempt for the US even prior to Trump. Remember that cowboy George W. Bush in 2001?:
George W. Bush is highly unpopular with the publics of the major nations of Western Europe. By wide margins, people in Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy all disapprove of his handling of international policy, and the American president does not inspire much more confidence in these countries than does Russian President Vladimir Putin.
More than seven-in-ten of those in each country say Bush makes decisions based entirely on U.S. interests, and most think he understands less about Europe than other American presidents. In that regard, Bush’s foreign policy approval rating runs 40-60 percentage points below former President Bill Clinton’s, when judged in retrospect.
These are the principal findings of a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center …
And Reagan in 1981:
A remark by President Reagan that he could envision a nuclear war limited to Europe has unleashed a political storm among Europeans that U.S. and allied officials sought yesterday to bring under control.
Also in 1982:
President Reagan will meet presidents, prime ministers, a pope and a queen during his trip to Europe for the NATO summit, but will also be exposed to thousands of angry Europeans who despise him — and some who may try to kill him.
In Paris, the president’s first stop on his 10-day, 4-nation tour beginning Wednesday, grand boulevards and winding alleyways alike are lined with posters showing a combat commando gripping a submachine gun and saying ‘the terrorist Reagan must be welcomed with hatred, raised fists and loaded arms.’
Bombs exploded last week at the Rome office of Pan American airlines and an insurance company with U.S. links. The communist group that claimed responsibility for the blast said, ‘This is our greeting to the hangman Reagan.’
The president’s personal safety has been most directly threatened in West Germany, cradle of the European peace movement that views Reagan as a warmongering nuclear cowboy.
We survived that. Hopefully we’ll survive this.
But I’ve never been keen on roller coaster rides. Trump’s unpredictability is both a strength and a weakness. But if he threatens too many times and his bluff is called and he doesn’t follow through, he loses the power engendered by his threats. Plus, he can get into a macho-threat contest with some people and win, but Putin couldn’t care less, IMHO.
However, Trump has pulled many rabbits out of many hats before – so sit tight during the bumpy ride.
ADDENDUM:
I just noticed these: