See UPDATE at end of post.
[NOTE: I use the past tense for Khashoggi because the consensus is that he is dead. This is certainly more likely than not. But I am not convinced of it, because it has not been proven. In fact, no evidence has been offered at all except the word of unnamed Turkish officials. That’s not nearly good enough. I have stated before that I doubt we’ll ever know the truth about this, and so far that continues to be my opinion. The groups relating the tale so far—the Turks and the Saudis—both have reasons to be lying, and very clear agendas that have to do with their own power and the forms of Muslim extremism they each espouse: Muslim Brotherhood for the Turks, and Wahabism for the Saudis.]
A helpful reader has called my attention to this article in the NY Post, which I think presents a very plausible picture, one that has been corroborated by other news reports previously. But I think that this particular article pulls it all together in a very clear and succinct manner, as well as a very alarming one:
…characterizations of [Khashoggi] in the media are not fully accurate. He’s depicted as a “reformer,” a “democracy advocate” and a “journalist.” Yet these are half-truths that obscure the political role Khashoggi played.
Before anything else, he was a regime insider. He was a close associate of senior members of the royal family who were eclipsed by the new crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
Khashoggi was not merely a pen for hire. He represented a particular political perspective. An Islamist, his views on major issues consistently tracked with those of the Muslim Brotherhood…
“Saudi Arabia,” Khashoggi said, “is the mother and father of political Islam.” But the Saudi government was forsaking this tradition. “Today,” the kingdom has turned against its very nature and is “fighting political Islam.” As a consequence, its “compass is lost.”
A Turkophile, Khashoggi hoped instead that the new crown prince would follow in the footsteps of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who supports the Muslim Brotherhood across the Arab world. Khashoggi envisioned a grand alliance between Riyadh and Ankara.
…Like Erdogan, Khashoggi was hostile to the Sisi regime in Egypt and opposed Mohammed bin Salman’s rapprochement with Israel…
The picture is pretty clear: friend of Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood, enemy of Israel and the Saudis in power, although a friend of some Saudis who used to be in power. In other words, allied with the Turks and out to destroy the current Saudi rulers, and in favor of Islamic rather than secular rule. The only disagreement is which form of Islamic rule will come out on top.
And using the WaPo as a bully pulpit from which to write his pro-Turk anti-Saudi propaganda:
Khashoggi found an influential perch at The Washington Post, from which he launched attacks on the crown prince. One of his recent columns, for example, calls for the end of the war in Yemen, which he portrays as an abject failure. He presents the Saudi government as an indiscriminate killer of fellow Muslims and blames the failure of peace talks on its obstinacy and incompetence.
These arguments hit the crown prince where it hurts most: They implicitly attack his Islamic legitimacy, essentially placing him in the same category as slaughterers of Muslims, such as the Syrian and Russian leaders, Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin.
Why was he allowed to have this “perch” at the WaPo? It’s not too hard to figure out the probable reasons:
In presenting himself to his American friends, Khashoggi fashioned himself less the Islamist and more the democratic reformer. He made a tactical alliance with former Obama officials who seek to depict Trump’s pro-Saudi and anti-Iranian policy as a disaster.
Trump, in this view, is the enabler of a young, impetuous crown prince. Conflicts such as Yemen result from Saudi recklessness rather than Iranian expansionism.
Far from erasing this picture from the US media, Khashoggi’s disappearance has strengthened it. Given the opposition of former Obama officials to Trump’s strategy, they have an interest in stoking outrage at Khashoggi’s death. Their goal is to harness it in order to resurrect Obama’s outreach to Tehran.
Obama and his helpmates are eager to undermine Trump’s policies as much as they can, and they would not hesitate to use any means possible to do so.
If you wonder why Khashoggi was writing for the WaPo in the first place, or why the Khashoggi incident has become a cause célèbre (after all, governments kill people and even journalists in that part of the world rather often, and Khashoggi was not an American), this article describes a situation that makes more sense than anything else you might have read so far.
It still doesn’t tell us whether the whole thing is a scam or whether Khashoggi really was murdered—and, if the latter, who actually did it. There are certainly a lot of possible candidates.
ADDENDUM: Pompeo denounces US media’s “fake news” on many aspects of the Khashoggi story. A must-read, but here’s part of what Pompeo has said:
Curiouser and curiouser.
UPDATE 11:59 PM:
The Saudi government has made an announcement:
The case of the disappearance of the citizen Jamal bin Ahmed Khashoggi drew the attention of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the highest levels…[which dispatched] a security team to Turkey on 6 October 2018 to investigate and cooperate with counterparts in Turkey.
That was followed by the formation of a joint security team between the Kingdom and the Republic of Turkey, with a permission given to the Turkish security authorities to enter the Consulate of the Kingdom in Istanbul and the residence of the Consul, for the Kingdom’s keenness to clarify all the facts…
The Public Prosecutor has already investigated a number of suspects on the basis of information provided by the Turkish authorities…the preliminary investigations conducted by the Public Prosecution showed that the suspect had traveled to Istanbul to meet with the citizen Jamal Khashoggi as there were indications of the possibility of his returning back to the country.
The results of the preliminary investigations also revealed that the discussions that took place with the citizen Jamal Khashoggi…did not go as required and developed in a negative way led to a fight and a quarrel between some of them and the citizen Jamal Khashoggi, yet the brawl aggravated to lead to his death and their attempt to conceal and cover what happened.
The source added that while the investigations are still ongoing into the case with the 18 Saudi detainees, the Kingdom expresses its deep regret at the painful developments that have taken place and stresses the commitment of the authorities in the Kingdom to bring the facts to the public opinion, to hold all those involved accountable and bring them to justice by referring them to the competent courts in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
So the Saudis are saying that they have worked together with the Turks on solving this. Strange bedfellows, indeed.
The Saudi claim is that unnamed “suspects” traveled to Turkey in order to get Khashoggi to come back to Saudi Arabia alive (abduct him? convince him? beat him senseless and then transport him back unconscious?), but then some sort of accidental death occurred as a result of a brawl. Or perhaps, as a result of this brawl escalating (was Khashoggi just trying to defend himself and/or escape from this team of “suspects”? or was this an actual fistfight that wasn’t planned?), he died or was murdered by an overzealous “suspect.”
Very murky indeed. It doesn’t have the ring of truth, either, but it has the possible ring of semi-truth. Reading between the lines, my leading theory at the moment is that some Saudi elements decided to drag Khashoggi back to Saudi Arabia to either be questioned or to face some sort of other music, didn’t intend to kill him or didn’t intend to kill him quite yet, and he resisted in some way and they (or one of them) killed him either purposely or accidentally.
It’s not impossible that a person dies accidentally during a fistfight, by the way. I actually knew two people who did. One was a student at my junior high school; he was fighting with another boy on the sidewalk, and fell and hit his head, which caused his death. The other was a friend of my parents’ who owned a store and tried to fight off an irate customer, and had a fatal heart attack in the process. So although I’m well aware that such things can happen, I don’t actually think it very likely that Khashoggi’s death was an accident.
As for the Crown Prince’s involvement or lack thereof, I haven’t a clue.