Jewish holidays begin at sundown and end at sundown, and tonight is the start of Rosh Hashana, which is the Jewish New Year. It couldn’t come at a more appropriate time.
Out with the horror of last year, in with new beginnings and new hope.
What year is it in the Jewish calendar? 5785.
Of course, the debate isn’t going to change the mind of anyone whose mind was already made up, and the vast majority of people fit into that category. But in a few days, polls will indicate whether those all-important “undecideds” will swing in any particular direction.
For now, suffice to say – from what I’ve gleaned from reading many online reactions – that Vance apparently did very well indeed, especially considering that he faced the usual three-against-one format of these ridiculous debates. I would expect as much from a graduate of Yale Law School and a person who’s been handling hostile interviews from the moment Trump chose him as his VP. Walz, on the other hand, isn’t used to matching wits with someone like Vance.
More importantly, though, it seemed Vance wasn’t the least bit “weird” and managed to be rather affable and “likable,” another apparently important characteristic by which voters make decisions. After all, most people weren’t previously all that familiar with him and he wouldn’t want the opposition to be the ones to paint his picture for the public. It also made him a potentially reassuring contrast to Trump’s volatility.
Harris’ pick of Walz is revealing because it shows her current decision-making abilities. Not especially impressive last night. But Trump’s pick of Vance, and Vance’s positioning as a stable and even-tempered guy who also happens to be smart and cool under fire, enhances Trump. And considering Trump’s age and propensity to be target practice for crazies, Vance’s capabilities are especially important.
I also saw quite a few women online mentioning that they think Vance is very handsome. I’ve never felt that to be the case; I’d call him attractive. But hey, I’m not the target audience. And the scoop on Tim Walz is that he looks like an unfunny Don Rickles.
Then there were Vance’s side-eyes:
And here’s an example of Vance’s being “kind” to Walz. It’s a thing of beauty:
"You've got a tough job here. You've got to pretend that Donald Trump didn't deliver rising take home pay, which of course he did. You've got to pretend that Donald Trump didn't deliver lower inflation, which of course he did. And then you've got to defend Kamala Harris's… pic.twitter.com/s8hvHOxPNB
— JD Vance (@JDVance) October 2, 2024
I haven’t yet decided whether I’ll watch it, but probably not. How about you?
Expectations are very low for Walz but beware – that is sometimes a setup to make anything the person does look good in comparison. Walz will also have the usual advantage of a compliant and helpful media. CBS will be doing the honors.
Carter is the first president to reach centenarian status.
I’ve written about Carter in many previous posts: in this one I compare Carter and Biden, in this one I discuss Carter’s role in the rise of Iran’s mullahtocracy, this one’s about Carter’s biggest regret, here’s one about Carter’s inadequate apology to Israel, and here’s a gem about Carter’s dialogues with Hamas. From the latter there’s this quote from Carter in 2006, when he oversaw the election in Gaza that ended up bringing Hamas to power, and he spoke with Hamas leaders:
Carter said “there’s a good chance” that Hamas, which has operated a network of successful social and charitable organizations for Palestinians, could become a nonviolent organization….The 39th U.S. president said he met with Hamas leaders in Ramallah, in the West Bank, after last week’s elections.
“They told me they want to have a peaceful administration. They want to have a unity government, bring in Fatah members and independent members,” Carter said.
Well, he wasn’t alone in that hope – some Israelis shared it. And Carter did add “What they say and what they do [are] two different matters.” But Carter also wrote a book in 2006 that popularized the word “apartheid” to refer to Israel.
I voted twice for the guy; what can I say, I was a Democrat at the time. I didn’t think he was anywhere near a great president even back then, but I later came to think of him as a very poor president. He’s been eclipsed in that regard by others since, of course. But one thing I can say about even his failures: I never thought he hated the United States.
How long will it last? Will there be major shortages? Tune in to find out:
Dockworkers at dozens of ports stretching along the East and Gulf coasts walked the picket line after midnight on Tuesday as they launched a massive strike that threatens to reignite inflation and spark product shortages at the start of the holiday season.
The work stoppage went into effect at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday after the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents 45,000 workers, and the alliance representing ports failed to renew a collective bargaining agreement that had just expired.
For the first time since 1977, 36 ports stretching from strategic seaboard locations as far north as Maine and as far south as Texas – all of which handle an aggregate $3 trillion in the country’s annual international trade – will be idle due to a work stoppage.
They want more pay, and “protection against automation.” The article says that large retailers have stocked up on goods in preparation for Christmas, but after a few weeks if the strike goes on the effects will be felt. And for things like bananas, they will be felt more immediately.
We’ve become accustomed to a great many products imported from all over the world.
And of course, if the strike goes on for a while, it will have political repercussions.
So far, the expected Iranian missile attack appears to resemble one back in April in scope and effect, in which the missiles were either successfully destroyed or didn’t cause deaths even though some of them hit. Israel has a robust (but not inexhaustible) defense capability as well as extensive bomb shelters.
But these attacks from Iran are frightening, and the defense is costly to Israel in terms of money. Was this a carefully calibrated and face-saving move by Iran to supposedly not start a major war, which Iran fears it would lose? Is Iran willing to sacrifice Hezbollah to the Israelis, in order to protect itself?
Iran wishes to pose as the reasonable one:
Iran’s mission to the United Nations issued a statement that confirmed the attack on Israel and indicated that its direct assault was over.
“Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime — which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran — has been duly carried out,” the Iranian statement said. Iran supports many proxy groups in the region, and it wasn’t clear whether any of those groups might still launch additional attacks on Israel after the Iranian missile salvo.
Meanwhile, in Israel there was a lethal terrorist attack:
While Iran’s missiles appeared to have claimed no lives, Israeli police said two gunmen opened fire on members of the public on a road in Tel Aviv not long before the rockets were fired. The Associated Press cited police as saying six people were killed in the attack before the two suspects were neutralized.
I see that word “neutralized” a lot these days. It often means “killed,” and I think that’s what happened to today’s attackers.
Meanwhile, the IDF is engaged in southern Lebanon:
Israeli officials have characterized the incursion into southern Lebanon as limited in scope, saying there will be “no long-term occupation.”
Officials have, however, declined to say how deep Israeli troops would venture into the country or how long the operation is expected to last. On Tuesday, the Israeli military called on residents in more than two dozen villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate approximately 30 miles into the country. …
The Israeli military earlier said it was focused on removing “immediate threats” from Lebanese villages along the border, including Hezbollah’s ability to infiltrate northern Israel. Israeli soldiers, including paratroopers and commandos, as well as armored corps troops have been “preparing for limited, localized, targeted operations in southern Lebanon,” the Israeli military said, adding that soldiers have been training for weeks and had gained skills and operational experience in Gaza over many months.
That last bit is of the utmost importance. The IDF is now very used to this sort of operation – which I believe involves clearing and obliterating the tunnels of Hezbollah in particular, much as occurred with the tunnels in Gaza. The IDF is battle-hardened in terms of the sort of operation that will be necessary in southern Lebanon.
If you’re wondering why inland, mountainous western North Carolina was hit so hard by Helene, here’s the explanation:
It’s a beautiful area in which I once spent a month (with Gerard, about fifteen years ago). Driving around in the fall was wonderful because anywhere you went it was picturesque. Asheville was a fun town with plenty of good food, but I was staying to the west of there in the mountains. Now the entire area seems to have been hard hit, with many deaths. The toll is expected to rise.
We all know that, if a Republican had been in the White House, or a Republican was the governor of the state, these two people would be fully blamed by the press. These days, however, does anyone expect anything of Biden? Yes, he was on the beach, and yes, he said he’d been “on the phone” about it for two hours, but does anyone even consider him president anymore? The headline of that AP story I just linked is basically “Trump pounces!”
Kamala Harris says she’s been in touch with authorities. She and Biden are planning a visit (not necessarily together), and Trump is in Georgia with some aid. Seems as though all of them are waiting until things calm down enough in North Carolina to visit, so that they don’t impede rescue operations there. Right now access and communications are terrible in that area.
One of the impressions I get is that, although there was a warning in North Carolina to evacuate low-lying areas, the portion of the state that was hit hardest by the surge was at elevation and therefore I’m assuming everyone was still at home. I see that a state of emergency had been declared for western areas prior to the storm, but it was mostly about preparedness and I see nothing about evacuation. This would make for a much higher death toll.
The photos and videos remind me somewhat of the dreadful tsunami of 2004. The latter disaster struck an enormous area and caused over two hundred thousand deaths in many countries of the world, so its scope was far greater. But both show the tremendous destructive power and force that water can take on.
Moving right along: October!
Or both?
The story, according to Minnesota Public Radio and the Walz campaign:
Vice presidential candidate Tim Walz “was so proud of his extensive experience” traveling to China that he “occasionally used to exaggerate it” by claiming to have visited the communist country twice as often as he actually did, Minnesota Public Radio reported on Monday.
Walz went on around 15 trips to China in the 1990s and early 2000s—rather than over 30, as he stated earlier in his political career—his campaign told Minnesota Public Radio this week.
Why is Walz pulling back on his “old China hand” credentials? Because the House Oversight Committee is investigating the nature of his longtime ties to China.
I guess that what appeals to the voters of Minnesota doesn’t sound so great on the national stage. So Tim adjusts the story accordingly.
We don’t know the final death toll of Hurricane Helene, but it’s already high:
The Category 4 hurricane made landfall along Florida’s Big Bend region late Thursday night, with winds of 140 mph and a devastating storm surge. Helene left behind widespread destruction from the Sunshine State through Georgia into the Carolinas and Tennessee Valley as the storm traveled across the U.S.
At least 120 people have been confirmed dead across six states – Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee. …
Communities in western North Carolina were hit especially hard by the effects of Hurricane Helene, with catastrophic flooding destroying hundreds of roads and bridges. Access to several areas has been cut off, preventing crews from getting much-needed supplies like food, water and fuel to residents.
Dozens of people are now confirmed dead in North Carolina, and hundreds of people remain unaccounted for due to the lack of power and communication access.
Later in the article, it says that the storm brought between 10 and 29 inches of rain to the mountain areas of North Carolina. That is a storm of astounding magnitude.
NOTE: Reactions to natural disasters are often used to make political points. You probably recall how George W. Bush was blamed for the toll of Katrina in 2005. Now, with Biden symbolically at the helm, does anyone expect much leadership from him or from VP Harris, who is busy staging photo-ops on the storm? This article describes the plans of Biden, Harris, and Trump. The latter seems to be going to the area first (to Georgia; NC is still too messed up), and the others say they hope to in the future.
[Hat tip: commenter “sdferr.”]
Netanyahu has a message for the long-suffering people of Iran:
The vast majority of Iranians know their regime doesn’t care a whit about them. If it did care, if it cared about you, it would stop wasting billions of dollars on futile wars across the Middle East. It would start improving your lives. Imagine if all the vast money the regime wasted on nuclear weapons and foreign wars were invested in your children’s education, in improving your health care, in building your nation’s infrastructure, water, sewage, all the other things that you need. Imagine that.”
“When Iran is finally free — and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different,” he promises. “Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace. Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace.
“When that day comes, the terror network that the regime built in five continents will be bankrupt, dismantled. Iran will thrive as never before. Global investment. Massive tourism. Brilliant technological innovation based on the tremendous talents that exists inside Iran. Doesn’t that sound better than endless poverty, repression and war?”
Concludes Netanyahu: “Don’t let a small group of fanatic theocrats crush your hopes and your dreams. You deserve better. Your children deserve better. The entire world deserves better. I know you don’t support the rapists and murderers of Hamas and Hezbollah, but your leaders do. You deserve more. The people of Iran should know – Israel stands with you. May we together know a future of prosperity and peace.”
Just about everyone knows that the majority of Iran’s people don’t want the theocracy that has ruled the country with an iron fist for over forty years. So far, they have been powerless to overthrow that regime. Perhaps Netanyahu is getting way ahead of himself with this vision of a Middle East at peace, but at this point it’s at least a possible consequence of the twistings and turnings that have led us from October 7, 2023 to this moment.
The death of Narallah and the attacks on the Hezbollah hierarchy are not direct hits on the Iranian mullahs, but they have to feel more vulnerable at this point. Hezbollah was – and perhaps still is – their strongest and most well-equipped proxy. It had extended Iran’s reach very far: to South America, to Syria, to Iraq, and of course most of all to Lebanon, Iran’s colonial crown jewel. Now Israel has reduced the power of that outpost of horror, at least temporarily, with stunning speed and remarkable ingenuity of a type that has astounded the world and was not predicted by anyone, as far as I know. Exploding pagers and walkie-talkies? Even screenwriters hadn’t come up with anything like that – but Israel did.
After a year of such heartache and horror, it’s a welcome moment of hope. Netanyahu seems to be positioning himself as a contender for the job of “leader of the free world” – after all, at the moment, there’s a vacancy. The “free world” has been shrinking lately, but his vision is that it can expand and that Iran can be part of it.