I’ve written before about the drive to end the Electoral College. And I’m going to write about it again, because I think it’s very important and people need to become aware of what’s going on before it succeeds. Believe me, those pushing for this are very serious and very organized (as well as well-funded, I’m going to assume):
What [Democrats] want is for the extremely blue states of California and New York to decide the election, because that’s the way it would probably be if the Electoral College were to be eliminated. Before the 2016 election, you didn’t hear all that many calls from Democrats for the end of the EC, in part because the EC arrangement was seen to favor Hillary Clinton and the Democrats. Remember all the cries that Trump had no Electoral College “path” to victory? I certainly do.
But since Trump somehow managed to blaze such a path, much to their intense astonishment (and somewhat to mine, I must say), they want the Electoral College gone. And because there is little chance of a constitutional amendment to that purpose passing (probably not enough states would support it), they’ve found a way around that little impediment [the following quote is from the Times editorial]:
“There is an elegant solution: The Constitution establishes the existence of electors, but leaves it up to states to tell them how to vote. Eleven states and the District of Columbia, representing 165 electoral votes, have already passed legislation to have their electors vote for the winner of the national popular vote. The agreement, known as the National Popular Vote interstate compact, would take effect once states representing a majority of electoral votes, currently 270, signed on. This would ensure that the national popular-vote winner would become president.”
Notice how far this movement has gotten without all that much fanfare, considering the enormous changes it would wreak on our entire political system. For example, this just happened, and it doesn’t seem to be that heavily covered:
New Mexico is the 14th state to move away from the traditional use of the electoral college in presidential elections. Yesterday, Governor Michelle Luján Grisham signed House Bill 55 for her state to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. By so doing, the Governor agrees with New Mexico Democrat Party lawmakers to give all the state’s electoral college votes to the winner of the national popular vote. There were no New Mexico Republican lawmakers on board with the decision. The will of New Mexico voters would not be honored if they were to select a different candidate than the winner of the aggregated popular vote in the other NPVIC states. So far the NPVIC laws won’t go into effect. The states approving it must equal 270 electoral votes. With New Mexico’s alignment, there are now 189. Critics of the move away from the traditional use of the electoral college model claim there are constitutional problems with the compact and that if implemented, the end result would be that the most populous states such as California and New York could end up electing the U.S. president. NPVIC supporters deny the criticisms.
If this sort of thing were to pass only in blue states, it probably wouldn’t end up mattering much in terms of electoral results. But New Mexico is sometimes considered to be a swing state—although it’s been trending blue for quite a while.
And Ohio? That could be a big big deal. Ohio is a pivotal swing state that often has a big role in determining the outcome of an election. It’s hard to gauge how much support this has in Ohio, but it may not need all that much support if activists are energized by it and not enough other people realize what’s going on and what it means:
The proposed amendment was submitted to the attorney general’s office by Don McTigue, a Columbus election lawyer, who provided 1,000 signatures from Ohio voters. The signatures were collected by a Washington, D.C. canvasing outfit, but it’s not completely clear who all is behind the effort. Cleveland.com reported that McTigue “referred comment to Reed Hundt, a former Federal Communications Commission chair who is now chair and CEO of Making Every Vote Count, a non-profit pushing for a binding national popular vote.” Hundt declined to respond to Cleveland.com’s request for comment.
Making Every Vote Count is a 501(c)(3) organization registered in Washington, D.C., that is “dedicated to electing the president by a national popular vote,” according to the group’s website.
The Ohio Ballot Board has ten days to decide whether to approve the submitted ballot language and the attorney general must validate the signatures submitted with the petition. If approved, supporters will have until July 3 to collect 442,958 valid signatures (10 percent of the vote in the last gubernatorial election) from registered voters in 44 of Ohio’s 88 counties.
A ballot measure, of course, is the worst possible way to change a law. The outcome largely depends on which activist organizations have the best fear-fueled ad campaigns. It’s the whole reason a comprehensive union reform law — passed by the duly elected legislature in Ohio and signed by the governor — was overturned by a popular-vote referendum in 2011.
I assume they will be able to collect those signatures. All they need is 442,958 Ohio voters who are on the left, and enough workers to reach them. Many many resources will be given to this effort, I’m assuming, because the left certainly realizes that success could change things, big time. Does the right understand what’s going on, and is it ready to fight this with enough resources to make a difference?
[ADDENDUM: I see that John Hinderaker has written on the same topic today. Good. He has a lot more traffic than I do, and I hope his post gets a lot of publicity and raises the alarm. His piece also contains a lengthy discussion of possible constitutionality issues connected with this movement.]