[Hat tip: commenter “Barry Meislin.”]
I’m in complete agreement with this:
… [Israel] is caught in an equation deliberately made insoluble. On October 7th, by massacring civilians and abducting hundreds of hostages, Hamas triggered a war with no bearable outcome. Israel was not only surprised. It was trapped.
It is important to understand: Hamas is not seeking victory, it seeks the destruction of Israel. They do not care if Gaza burns, as long as Israel bleeds. This is an eschatological strategy: lose everything, as long as the other falls with you. And their strategy relies on entanglement, on emotion, on manipulating Western consciences. Their strength is not military, it is dramaturgical.
And perhaps the most chilling thing is this: they have understood the West better than many Israeli strategists. Their real front is Western public opinion, not the IDF.
By taking hostages, they forbid peace. By hiding among civilians in the most densely populated territory in the world, they forbid war. Hamas has invented a geometry of the trap: Israel is locked in a war where every victory is a loss. In this asymmetrical, post-modern war, it is not reality that counts—it is the image of reality.
This trap could not work without the cooperation of Western democracies. By reversing the pressure—not on the hostage-takers, but on those trying to rescue them—they legitimize blackmail. By recognizing a Palestinian state unconditionally, they turn a terrorist strategy into political capital. …
The hostages are trophies, levers, spotlights trained on Gaza to keep the war going. They will not all be returned: that is precisely why they were taken.
This strategy was apparent almost from the start, when the West – and most especially the Western MSM – began to play its role with perfection. The template was set early on, with the fake news on October 17, 2023, of the bombing of the Al-Ahli hospital, which was picked up and spread by Western media without questioning the obvious impossibility of the Gazans having a body count in no time at all, and without even trying to ascertain whether the hospital was even damaged (it was not) or investigating the provenance of the explosives (Hamas in origin). Hamas could put out any lie whatsoever that would make Israel look bad, and the propaganda would be promulgated by the MSM and then amplified on social media. It was a winning formula – “winning” in the sense of making Israel look bad in the eyes of so much of the gullible, Israel-hating world.
Many many times I’ve heard it said, and read it written, that Israel is terrible at communicating its message. This is usually stated with a condescending and deprecating air, as though there’s something Israel could do that it isn’t doing. But these criticisms almost always ignore what I think is glaringly obvious, which is that it is actually impossible to accomplish this. The reason? It’s the old saying: a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its boots on. Lies are easy to tell and no proof is demanded if the recipient is already predisposed to believe the lie. The truth countering it requires facts, and facts take time. Plus, they are brushed away as self-serving lies by those who don’t want to see.
Israel has indeed been in a trap since 10/7, and the hostages are the key to the trap. It would be bad enough to wage the war against Hamas even without them, because lies like the one about the Al-Ahli hospital explosion would be continually told by Hamas and believed by those who demonize Israel. But the hostages make the dilemma far far worse because they make it very difficult to prosecute the war in a timely and effective fashion.
Hamas has always known this. As I wrote on April 10, 2024, about six months after the hostages were taken [emphasis added]:
… [T]he remaining hostages (except for the Bibas family) are in two major categories: military members and civilian men over 18. I believe (but cannot prove) that these two groups – especially the military – were singled out by Hamas for harsher treatment from the start. “Harsher treatment” can mean many things, including death. But Hamas was always going to keep these groups back and use them to bargain for the entire prize: the release of all Palestinian prisoners (numbering in thousands) held in Israel, the end of Israel’s offensive in Gaza, and the continuation of Hamas’ own powerful death grip on Gaza.
That’s how valuable the hostages are to Hamas.
NOTE: According to this article, Hamas has recently accepted a deal for about half of the hostages, but Israel is demanding them all. Israel is correct to demand them, but I doubt Israel will ever get them. The alternative is more war.