The IDF moves on Gaza City
Talks on the hostages continue, but Israel’s IDF is starting to move on Gaza City:
The IDF has begun the first steps of its invasion of Gaza City, IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin confirmed on Wednesday.
“Our forces already control the outskirts of the city,” he said.
Additionally, he confirmed that some 60,000 conscription letters will be sent out this week, with an additional 20,000 to be sent later this month.
In his statement, Defrin confirmed that the IDF is working to provide sufficient spaces for Gazan civilians to safely evacuate, as well as to receive aid and medical care.
Israeli intelligence has determined that the hostages are in Gaza City. I don’t know whether Hamas would be able to move them at this point, but I do know they’d be able to kill them – or more likely some of them, the better to torture the Israeli people and yet retain the value of having some living hostages. This would create even more turmoil in Israel than already exists, which is already plenty.
Hamas keeps talking about a partial deal – it worked well for them before, because they know that the hostages are exceedingly important to Israel. But so far Israel is holding firm to its insistence on getting all the remaining hostages – alive and dead – back in a single agreement. Hamas doesn’t want to do that for the obvious reason that its power resides in its keeping some of the hostages as bargaining chips, psychological torture for Israelis, and pressure on the Netanyahu government. But the threat to enter Gaza City and take over seems to have put some new pressure on Hamas.
Is the death of the Democratic Party greatly exaggerated?
I keep reading that the Democrats are finito, on the ropes. My question: then why is the right fighting so hard to hold onto the House in 2026?
And why do I not know a single Democrat who has abandoned the party recently? I know it’s just anecdotal, but I know a great many Democrats, and not one has changed his or her mind or considers Republicans anything but racist and homophobic fascists who are bent on destroying Medicare and the like.
Now, granted, the majority of these people are in the older age category, which seems to be the most pro-Democrat demographic in the US (I can’t find where I read that, but I know I did recently; perhaps it was in some article discussing one of these polls?). But I also know quite a few middle-aged Democrats who haven’t changed their minds, either.
Democrats now do especially poorly among young men. Well, duuuh, they’ve had an anti-man message for quite some time now.
One thing seems to be true, though: a great many Democrats are unhappy with the party. But will they leave it? If they buy the demonization propaganda about the right, I doubt they will. For example, see this quote:
A major Democratic donor was more scathing: “Our party sucks. Our leadership sucks. Our message sucks. Why would anyone want to be a Democrat?”
Why, indeed? And yet he’s described as “a major Democratic donor.” Not a former donor or a former Democrat. He says “our” party, so he clearly considers himself a member. Can he answer his own question? If he were to do so, I bet it would be that Republicans are so very awful/evil that the Democrats must be supported no matter what.
The enormous fine imposed on Trump in the Letitia James civil case is overruled
This was expected, but it’s still good to see:
An appellate court has thrown out the $500 million civil fraud penalty against President Donald Trump in the high-profile case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James.
The New York Appellate Division overturned the penalty, ruling the disgorgement was an excessive fine that violates the Eighth Amendment. …
Trump took to Truth Social to declare a “total victory” and rail against James and the original trial judge, Arthur Engoron.
“TOTAL VICTORY in the FAKE New York State Attorney General Letitia James Case!” Trump wrote.
No, not total victory. The panel left intact the verdict, which was absurd and should also have been overturned (I’ve written many posts about it, for example this). But because the judges were split on the issue of liability itself, the Court of Appeals of New York will be hearing the case on that issue. If that doesn’t work out well for Trump, I assume it will probably go to SCOTUS.
The wheels of justice grind slow …
Open thread 8/21/2025
Is anti-Zionism anti-Semitism?
It’s an old question. I agree with Brendan O’Neill when he writes this in response:
Is it anti-Semitic to criticise Israel? Of course not. No nation on Earth should be shielded from the brickbats or even the ridicule of the world’s citizens.
Is it anti-Semitic to rage day in, day out against Israel? To think of little else? To let this tiny state occupy your every waking thought? To call it uniquely barbarous, borderline demonic, a nation that lusts after blood like no other? To dream of its destruction? To traipse through the streets every week hollering for its obliteration? To call its citizens genocidal freaks and lunatics? To taunt them with memories of their ancestors’ extermination by branding them ‘Nazis’? To devote yourself so singularly to this one nation’s erasure that you come to define your entire political personality by that warped goal and proudly declare yourself an ‘anti-Zionist’?
Yes. Yes, that is anti-Semitic. If you maniacally obsess over the Jewish homeland, and detest Jewish nationalism more than any other nationalism, and gleefully chant for the death of the Jewish nation’s soldiers, and fantasise about the violent excision of the Jewish State ‘from the river to the sea’, then you have a problem with Jews. And more of us need to say so.
“Double standard” doesn’t even begin to cover it. Israel is judged by completely unique standards and subject to completely unique demands, in addition to having to withstand a constant barrage of accusatory lies.
Netanyahu interview at Triggernometry
I haven’t had a chance to watch this yet, but I bet it’s good:
If true, this is very good news about Elon Musk
Haven’t heard much from him lately. But here’s the report, according to “individuals close to Musk”:
Tesla CEO and former DOGE chief Elon Musk is reportedly backpedaling on the idea of forming a third political party and instead seeking to use his vast wealth to support the leading contender for the presidency in 2028.
Reportedly, Musk is keen on Vance in 2028.
[NOTE: This is my very first post in the category “Election 2028.”]
What would security guarantees for Ukraine look like?
Commenter “Niketas Choniates” writes:
If a country is in NATO, that is saying “America (and Europe) will send their boys to die there and take a nuke for it if necessary”. The more countries get added to NATO, the less likely that is, and NATO just becomes a paper tiger, its bluff will get called eventually, and then we either get a real war we never wanted, or NATO ends up on the ash heap with the League of Nations.
All the people saying “Neville Chamberlain”: do you or do you not support sending US troops to Ukraine, taking a nuke for it if necessary? If yes, awesome, convince the rest of us that Ukraine is worth dying for. If no, don’t pretend that we can fight half or a quarter of a war with no risk to us at home. Russia is not Iraq or Iran, that we can work our will on with no consequences at home. Keep pushing against red lines, and finally you’ll cross one, and then we WILL have years of flag-draped coffins and possibly some nukes. If you think the risk is worth it, have the integrity and the courage to say so.
And yet no one here is saying Ukraine would or should join NATO, and Trump has made it clear that NATO membership is off the table for Ukraine, as are US boots on the ground there. For that matter, I wonder if people in the US would “take a nuke” or send US troops in order to defend France or England or Germany at this point.
Ukraine has demanded security guarantees as part of any deal, and European nations committed to providing them with the assistance of the US – but what would they look like without NATO membership? Would they have any teeth at all? They would need some formidable fangs, given Putin’s continuing desire to take over Ukraine.
The details have not been made clear – surprise, surprise – and yet I have a feeling they would need to be at least moderately convincing for Zelensky to agree to them, or for Trump to advocate them. I don’t think Trump wants a peace deal that quickly falls through.
Here’s an article that tries to describe the security possibilities:
Zelensky said the U.S. had sent a strong signal on security guarantees but said he could not offer any more concrete information until more details were nailed down in roughly the next 10 days.
Ukraine has been wary of exactly what security guarantees will look like. Just before Monday’s meetings, Zelensky said peace must be “lasting” and not echo the “so called ‘security guarantees’ in 1994.”
“They didn’t work,” Zelensky continued.
In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine agreed to give up nuclear weapons in the country in exchange for security “assurances” from the U.S, U.K. and from Russia. The agreement—a political pledge worded to safeguard the “independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine”—became known as the Budapest Memorandum. Russia violated the memorandum in 2014 and 2022. …
Zelensky also said security guarantees would also include an arms deal worth roughly $90 billion between the U.S. and Ukraine.
Russia has said it wants strict long-term limits on Ukraine’s military. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday U.S. and European officials will immediately start work on the security guarantees, and making sure there are no restrictions on Ukraine’s armed forces is a top priority.
Sounds like an impasse.
There’s talk of an Article 5-like type of guarantee, which would mean something similar to what NATO nations pledge to each other. But Article 5 has never been invoked except after 9/11, and that situation doesn’t resemble this one.
More possibilities:
Trump suggested that he wants Europeans to be “the first line of defence”, with the US providing intelligence, weapons (paid for by Europe) and air support of some kind. He was quite clear there would be no US “boots on the ground”.
Ukraine’s European allies are now mulling over what their role as guarantors of security for a peace deal might look like. It has been reported the head of the UK’s armed forces, Tony Radakin, will tell a meeting of military commanders at the Pentagon that the UK is prepared to send troops to Ukraine – not as a frontline fighting force, but to provide security at ports and air bases. How many members of the coalition of the willing are prepared to do the same remains uncertain.
It’s worthless if Putin doesn’t believe any of it will happen. It’s also at least partly dependent on who’s in charge in each country when any future Russian aggression towards Ukraine would take place. Another variable is Putin himself; he’s 72 years old, which in the present climate seems relatively young, but will his health hold out? And would a successor be inclined to have the same designs on Ukraine in the face of promised security guarantees?
Open thread 8/20/2025
Plans are afoot for trilateral Ukraine talks
Well, well, well:
Trump called Putin after discussing security guarantees for Ukraine during multi-phase talks with European leaders at the White House.
“I called President Putin, and began the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President Putin and President Zelenskyy,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“After that meeting takes place, we will have a Trilat, which would be the two Presidents, plus myself,” Trump said, calling it a positive “early step for a War that has been going on for almost four years.”
Well, it’s not happening on the first day of Trump’s administration, as promised in typical Trump hyperbole that was preposterous on its face. But I repeat my previous statement that if he can pull this one off, I’ll be tremendously impressed. I’m already impressed by so many things Trump has done, but this problem seemed intractable.
Of course, time will tell.
One prediction I will make is that most Trump-haters will give him no credit no matter what he does.
NOTE: I think that some European leaders may be getting accustomed to Trump and his style.
Crime drops in Washington DC
Who would have thought?
According to the union, which represents the Metropolitan Police Department’s 3,000 personnel, carjackings are down 83% since federal control was enacted, while robberies dropped 46%.
Violent crime fell 22% in the seven days since federal law enforcement began patrolling D.C.’s streets, and car theft came down 21%. Assault with a deadly weapon and property crime are also each down 6%.
“While federal assistance gives us a boost, we must repeal the misguided Comprehensive Policing and Justice Reform Act in order to make these changes permanent,” the union wrote on X, Monday morning.
It’s not a mystery that cracking down on criminals might actually reduce crime. But Democrats seem to think that shouldn’t be the way.
The thing about crime rates, though – rising or falling – is that they are statistics, and statistics depend on how things are reported and defined. We all know they can be manipulated. So at the moment we have dueling statistics about what’s really going on in DC and elsewhere. The police have been saying that recent DC statistics – prior to Trump’s action – were artificially low.
NOTE: Here’s an interesting article on the lethality of crimes in DC.