The political stance of a country can change very quickly these days, and elections have consequences. But Israeli elections are especially confusing, and I really don’t have a good idea what’s going on in that country at the moment despite having read quite a bit about it.
It starts with the fact that Israel has a parliamentary system, and Netanyahu failed to get enough votes to form a government. So that gives smaller factions a chance to band together and take power in a coalition, which they seem to be poised to do. However, the Knesset (the Israeli parliament) has yet to vote on it, although that is due to happen on either June 9 or June 14.
Caroline Glick has some very disturbing and pessimistic things to say on the matter:
There is little point at this stage of the game to mention the depths of moral depravity and treachery into which Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked have descended. Now, as the two self-proclaimed “leaders” of the ideological Right defect from the nationalist camp and form a leftist government supported by pro-Hamas Arab parties, the time has come to discuss the strategic and national consequences of their actions.
The place to begin the discussion is by noting that ministers that support the Biden administration’s Middle East policies will hold a majority in the leftist government Bennett and Shaked are now intent on forming.
The Biden administration’s commitment to returning the US to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran leads only in one direction. Biden’s Iran policy guarantees that Iran will achieve its goals of regional hegemony and membership in the nuclear club.
The 2015 deal facilitates Iran’s return to the global market and provides billions of dollars in cash payments to the regime in the form of sanctions relief and reparations. With these funds and lines of credit, the regime in Tehran will deepen its control over Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Iran will expand its war against Saudi Arabia while compelling the Gulf States and Jordan to bend to its will. The Khomeinist regime will then turn its sights on Egypt and work to oust the Sisi government and replace it with the Muslim Brotherhood…
The leftist government that Bennett and Shaked are about to form will not be able to oppose Biden’s policies because most of its cabinet ministers support those policies. And this spells the demise of the Abraham Accords. The rationale for those peace deals is Arab faith in Israel’s willingness to confront Iran even in defiance of the US Once that is gone, the Abraham Accords will be dead in the water.
The leftist government that Bennett and Shaked are now forming will guarantee that the Palestinian Authority will complete its seizure of Area C, endangering Israel’s strategic interests and imperiling its communities in Judea and Samaria. Most of the members of the government object to any steps to secure Israel’s rights and strategic interests in the areas…
And if Hamas – as can be expected – renews its campaign against Israel, the government will not dare to fight back because it will be dependent on the support of the Muslim Brotherhood-aligned United Arab List to survive. The UAL will bring down the government if it even thinks about lifting a finger to protect Israel against Hamas.
Beyond the diplomatic and military catastrophe that the leftist government will foment, there’s also the issue of Israeli democracy. A large majority of the ministers in the leftist government now being formed support eternalizing [* see NOTE belo] the legal fraternity’s seizure of power over the Knesset and the government.
There are more dismal predictions where that came from, at the link. According to Glick, there will be a cascade of such events, a result of the fact that Bennett will be forming a coalition with other parties diametrically opposed to what he has professed to stand for.
This is the coalition:
Bennett has signed onto a historic coalition agreement with centrist leader Yair Lapid who brought together a wide swath of political parties as part of a change coalition to oust Netanyahu, including a far left party and even for the first time in Israeli history, an Arab-Israeli party. If Israel’s parliament signs off on the deal in the coming days, Bennett will take the top job for the first two years of a four-year term, followed by Lapid…
Bennett lies to the right even of Netanyahu in several crucial areas. He would carry into office a history of incendiary remarks about Palestinians and a well-documented ambition to annex part of the occupied West Bank.
Few Israelis voted for Bennett’s Yamina party in March elections, picking up just 7 seats compared to Netanyahu’s 30. But Bennett found himself the kingmaker, wooed by both Netanyahu and Lapid who needed his party’s support in order to form a majority.
What could possibly go wrong? That’s the sort of thing I detest about Parliamentary systems.
It sounds to me as though all the groups opposed to Netanyahu – and there are tons of them on both left and right, not all that different from the disparate groups forming the anti-Trump coalition here – got together with the overriding purpose of ousting him from power. That’s their sole unifying characteristic and their sole unifying goal. They will be jockeying for position in the resulting government,if indeed such a government is approved.
More:
That means there’s still time for Netanyahu and his allies to convince members of parliament to defect from the coalition, or somehow tie things up procedurally in parliament. A collapse of the ceasefire with the Hamas-led militants in Gaza or another outside event could also topple the burgeoning new government.
But if Bennett and Lapid’s coalition can hold firm, they would bring weeks (or years) of political maneuvering to a close — and pull off a once improbable deal that would elevate Bennett to Israel’s highest office.
I don’t think I’m the only one who hasn’t a clue what’s going to happen.
[*NOTE: I had never heard the word “eternalizing” before, and at first I though it as a typo for “externalizing.” But that didn’t fit, and I realized that what Glick meant was “making eternal, making forever, making permanent.” Not a bad word, actually, to describe what the left wants to do when it gets into power.]