Massive floods after torrential rains have affected Germany and Belgium, and to a lesser extent Switzerland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, with significant loss of life and property destruction.
European leaders have blamed AGW, as you might have predicted, although there is no way of knowing whether that has anything to do with this event. The beauty of AGW is that any extreme weather event can be blamed on it and no one needs to prove it, nor can it be disproved.
The photos show a lot of property destruction. Over a hundred people are dead and many more missing. Germany, one of the worlds’ most developed countries, is described as having been taken by surprise:
Professor Hannah Cloke, a hydrologist who set up and now advises the European Flood Awareness System – an EU programme designed to provide early warnings of dangerous floods – said alerts were sent to authorities in Europe over the weekend.
“There were alerts going out… saying there’s some very serious rain and floods coming: be aware. It’s then for the national authorities to take that information and go with it,” she said.
Prof Cloke said there were places where the system had “done what it’s designed to do”, with early warnings heeded.
But there were “also places where those warnings did not get through to the people and they did not know it was going to happen”.
Prof Cloke set up the warning system after deadly flooding in Europe in 2002, hoping to prevent such an event from happening again.
But she said the latest flooding had exposed “breaks in the chain”…
Prof Cloke says Germany has a “fragmented” system involving many different authorities in different states, resulting in varying responses.
A spokesman for the German weather service Deutscher Wetterdienst said it had issued a number of warnings about extreme rainfall. He said it was up to other authorities to determine the flood risk and act on evacuating people, or taking other measures…
Prof Cloke said there were places where people did not know the floods were coming, or did not know how to respond to protect themselves and their homes.
“They were putting themselves at risk, they were walking through the floodwater,” she explained…
Friederike Otto, associate director of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, said “urgent education” was needed on the risks of flooding.
“I think people are really not aware that weather can actually be deadly,” she said.
Where’s that vaunted German efficiency when you need it? What a terrible situation, and seemingly preventable if the warning system had done its job. Note also that this system was set up under the EU banner, and it doesn’t sound as though it filtered down to the more local authorities. Nor does it sound as though people have the old-fashioned common sense to understand what a flood is and what it can do – perhaps because we are generally so protected against things.
Unlike Germany, however, the Netherlands avoided fatalities:
The Copernicus Emergency Management Service said it sent more than 25 warnings for specific regions of the Rhine and Maas river basins in the days leading up to the flooding, through its European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), well before heavy rains triggered the flash flooding. But few of these early warnings appear to have been passed on to residents early — and clearly — enough…
In Belgium, too, communication and organization appear to have been problems…
In the Netherlands, just across its borders with Germany’s and Belgium’s flood-devastated areas, the picture is entirely different. The Netherlands too experienced extreme rainfall — albeit not quite as heavy as those in Germany and Belgium — and it hasn’t escaped unscathed. But its towns are not entirely submerged and not a single person has died. Officials were better prepared and were able to communicate with people quickly, said Professor Jeroen Aerts, head of the Water and Climate Risk department at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam.
“We better saw the wave coming, and where it was going,” Aerts told CNN.
The Netherlands has a long history of water management and their success in the face of this disaster may offer the world a blueprint on how to handle floods…
Much of the [The Netherlands] is essentially sinking.
Its water management infrastructure is among the best in the world — involving giant walls with moveable arms the size of two football fields, coastal dunes that are reinforced with some 12 million cubic meters of sand per year, and simple things, like dikes and giving rivers more room to swell by lowering their beds — or floors — and expanding their banks.
Its strength lies largely in its organization. The country’s infrastructure is managed by a branch of government devoted solely to water…
Oh, and it had less rain.
However, unlike the Netherlands, most countries are not organized around water control. It seems that in Europe this time, all the information was there to have organized an evacuation and prevented the worst loss of life, although not the property damage. But it wasn’t done.