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Recalling Newsom

The New Neo Posted on August 10, 2021 by neoAugust 10, 2021

Here’s a piece on the entire California recall situation: what Newsom’s chances are, and how the recall system works there.

For what it’s worth, my prediction is that he will not be recalled but the vote will be close. And since I have only modest confidence in that prediction I’ll add that, if he is recalled, I think that a Democrat will win. The Democratic Party of California is very strong, the GOP very weak, and the Democrats cannot afford to lose this one so they will use every method at their disposal (and they have many, as the article describes) to make sure the party keeps the governorship.

The recall vote is in a special election on September 14th, which is only about a month away.

Posted in Politics | 30 Replies

Andrew Cuomo resigns, effective in 14 days

The New Neo Posted on August 10, 2021 by neoAugust 10, 2021

The question, of course, is why now? I have little doubt that Cuomo’s touchy-feely tendencies have been known for ages, and the problems with his COVID policies for nursing homes have also been known for well over a year.

Someone or more likely some group of people decided that Cuomo was no longer worth protecting, because if they had wanted to protect him they would have continued to do so.

Cuomo said this:

I’ve never crossed the line with anyone. But, I didn’t realize the extent to which the line has been redrawn. There are generational and cultural shifts that I just didn’t fully appreciate.

I hate to give Cuomo any credit at all. But since I’m of a generation which knows about that shift, I know that such creepy behavior (which is what it was) used to be winked at, and if it wasn’t exactly standard it wasn’t all that unusual in politics and even in business. But a lot has indeed “shifted” since then, and these allegations are not from forty years ago. Cuomo either is incredibly clueless or thought he could continue on his merry way with no consequences because he was so powerful, or both.

Cuomo also said:

This situation and moment is not about the facts. It’s not about the truth. it’s not about thoughtful analysis. It’s not about how do we make the system better. This is about politics.

And I agree. It is about politics – as I discussed at the very beginning of this post. Cuomo was raised in a political family and was always aware of the political world and how it operates, so he knows whereof he speaks. He also knows the Democratic Party, and he knows they protect those who are useful to it and throws away those who have lost their usefulness.

Andrew Cuomo lost his usefulness somewhere along the way.

And so they were probably going to impeach him:

“The governor has clearly lost the confidence of the majority members,” Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said Monday, reiterating what he said last week in the wake of the state attorney general’s report being released.

“Our goal is to bring the matter to a close with all haste,” Heastie added.

It would have been nasty, messy, and probably counterproductive for the party. And Andrew Cuomo was correct when he said:

This situation, by its current trajectory, will generate months of political and legal controversy. That is what is going to happen. That is how the political wind is blowing. It will consume government. it will cost taxpayers millions of dollars. It will brutalize people…

…[T]he best way I can help now is if I step aside…

One of those people “brutalized” would have been Andrew Cuomo. And he knew the outcome would be bad for him – he would be removed.

I think that the sexual allegations were allowed to be aired because the nursing home allegations were actually getting too hot to handle, and if Cuomo was removed because of the former then the latter could be swept under the rug more successfully. Here’s one quote that might bear on that:

“Just on the nursing home question alone there are a half million pages of documentation,” Lavine said in noting the volume of evidence.

The Lieutenant Governor of New York is Kathy Hochul, who will take office. A Democrat, obviously, and a woman so she will be New York’s first female governor. How apropos. She will be filling out the remainder of his term, which was set to expire in 2022.

Posted in Men and women; marriage and divorce and sex, Politics | Tagged Andrew Cuomo | 38 Replies

Open thread 8/10/21

The New Neo Posted on August 10, 2021 by neoAugust 10, 2021

Posted in Uncategorized | 42 Replies

A Chicago police officer has been killed in the line of duty

The New Neo Posted on August 9, 2021 by neoAugust 9, 2021

A police officer has been killed in Chicago and another officer is fighting for his life:

One Chicago police officer was killed and another was critically wounded during an exchange of gunfire with at least one suspect during a traffic stop Saturday night in the West Englewood neighborhood on the South Side.

Police, family and the Cook County medical examiner’s office identified the officer who died as Ella French, a 29-year-old who had worked as a Chicago cop since April 2018. She was the first Chicago police officer to be shot and killed in the line of duty since Mayor Lori Lightfoot took office in 2019.

As I read the story, certain elements stood out [emphasis mine]:

The shooting happened just after 9 p.m. Saturday near West 63rd Street and South Bell Avenue when the officers conducted a traffic stop on three people in a vehicle, First Deputy police Superintendent Eric Carter said at a Sunday morning news conference.

During the stop, someone opened fire on the officers and at least one officer returned fire, Carter said…

Both French and the officer who was critically wounded were members of the community safety team, a citywide unit formed last summer under police Superintendent David Brown to respond to crime hot spots.

Was this “community safety team” tasked with using different methods of policing than what is customary? Here’s an article from last September about such teams:

The Community Safety Team was unveiled in July. It is tasked with supplementing efforts by district commanders, while also reaching out to community leaders in an attempt to forge stronger relationships between police and residents on the South and West sides…

“While we will continue fighting violent crime with every resource at our disposal, it’s also important to note that [the] Community Safety Team’s core aspect is community service,” [Team leader] Barz said at a Monday press conference…

That’s very vague. I can’t find much more detail than that, so it’s hard to know whether team protocol had anything to do with what happened or not.

More:

Lightfoot, meanwhile, lamented the pro-law enforcement world’s complaints that society doesn’t do enough for cops, who feel there are roadblocks to doing their jobs effectively. She also lamented critics of the police who have long denounced officers’ treatment of neighborhoods of color.

“Stop. Just stop,” Lightfoot said at the news conference at police headquarters in a stern message to the opposing voices on policing issues. “This constant strife is not what we need in this moment.”

“The police are not our enemies,” she said. “They’re human, just as we are.”

But hasn’t Lightfoot herself fed at least some of this enmity?

More [emphasis mine]:

But the alleged shooter, who was believed by police to be a passenger in the vehicle, has a robbery conviction for a case from around 2019. Brown said that case was adjudicated through the court system, and he may have been sentenced to a probationary-type term, but he provided no further details.

And this is how one of the suspects was caught [emphasis mine]:

One of those neighbors told his wife and two kids to get into their home when they heard gunshots, according to a relative of that neighbor who was acting as his Spanish-language interpreter. They told the Tribune they did not want to be identified due to the sensitivity of the investigation.

Moments later, one of the suspects scaled that neighbor’s fence not far from the site of the shooting in an apparent effort to get away from the police.

That’s when the neighbor and two of his other relatives confronted the suspect in the backyard near a swing set, the neighbor’s relative said, translating for him. The suspect struck one of the three people trying to stop him, and the trio forced the suspect to the ground shortly before police arrived and took over, the neighbor said through his relative.

“He wants to protect the family,” the neighbor’s relative said.

“I’m happy because they (the police) were quickly here,” the neighbor said through his relative.

And in related Chicago news:

Chicago police said 73 people were shot, 11 fatally, across the city over the weekend, more than half during a 10-hour span that saw a police officer killed and three mass shootings that wounded 16 people.

That article makes for depressing reading. Chicago is out of control, something we already knew – but reading the lengthy list of violent incidents, injuries, and deaths brings it home even more clearly.

Posted in Law, Violence | 40 Replies

Obama’s birthday party

The New Neo Posted on August 9, 2021 by neoAugust 9, 2021

It was big, and probably mostly maskless.

In the scheme of things, though, I find I don’t care. That Obama is a narcissistic hypocrite who likes to hobnob with adoring celebrities certainly isn’t what I’d call news. We absorbed that fact a long long time ago.

What actually does amaze me – although I shouldn’t be amazed – is that Obama’s sixty years old. Now, that is surprising. It seems like only yesterday he was a young guy, and although sixty is young to me (boy, is it weird typing that), I’m well aware that it’s not young in any objective sense.

But at my back I always hear. Time’s wingèd chariot hurrying near…

Posted in Getting philosophical: life, love, the universe, Obama | 40 Replies

John McWhorter: “Kendi and DiAngelo don’t debate people like me”

The New Neo Posted on August 9, 2021 by neoAugust 9, 2021

John McWhorter writes:

If social media is any indication, many people seem to be of the opinion that people like Ibram Kendi and Robin DiAngelo should want to “debate” people like me and Glenn Loury. These people are roasted endlessly on social media for not engaging in “debate.”

It isn’t fair. I completely understand why they don’t…

…[G]iven the way people like me or Glenn Loury have discussed people like Kendi and DiAngelo on line and in print, how reasonable is it to expect them to “debate” us? I wasn’t nice to White Fragility last year and meant it, as that review needed to be written – but fully get why DiAngelo thereafter did not want to appear with me on Morning Joe. I didn’t write that review expecting DiAngelo to put on the gloves and “debate” me – I knew full well it meant that sometime in the future we’d be in a talk show green room carefully avoiding eye contact. Glenn has called Kendi an “empty suit” in our conversations and it has gotten around; I guarantee that I would never appear on the show of someone who called me that.

Some may be thinking that people like that are responsible for defending themselves in public competition, that this is the burden of the public intellectual. But the question is why they are supposed to do this in a live, back-and-forth sparring match.

Life is short. Why should someone spend even an hour or two of their time engaging with someone who has given all indication that they heartily disapprove of their work and even find them off-putting personally? Whether it was about winning or losing, who does this?

It seems to me I’ve indeed seen people do that, although it doesn’t tend to end well. So yes, sometimes it happens, but since I don’t usually watch that sort of thing I can’t name anyone except perhaps William Buckley vs. Gore Vidal long ago.

But far more importantly, do Kendi and DiAngelo debate anyone who disagrees with them? If so, I’m not aware of it.

And it makes sense that they wouldn’t be willing to do so, but not for the reason that McWhorter gives. As post-modernists, isn’t it the case that they don’t really believe in debate? They don’t believe in meritocracy, they don’t think traditional logic and argument prove anything – and in fact they believe those things are examples of the systemic racism embedded in our entire society. So why would they subject themselves to being judged by rules and standards they reject as not just wrong, but racist? If they can get away it – and apparently they can, at least so far – they will continue to refuse.

Posted in Getting philosophical: life, love, the universe, Race and racism | 35 Replies

Open thread 8/9/21

The New Neo Posted on August 9, 2021 by neoAugust 9, 2021

Posted in Uncategorized | 51 Replies

Fred Astaire’s modesty

The New Neo Posted on August 7, 2021 by neoAugust 7, 2021

Sometimes the great and the famous are arrogant, or they become arrogant. But not Fred Astaire:

His perfectionism was legendary, but his relentless insistence on rehearsals and retakes was a burden to some. When time approached for the shooting of a number, Astaire would rehearse for another two weeks and record the singing and music. With all the preparation completed, the actual shooting would go quickly, conserving costs. Astaire agonized during the process, frequently asking colleagues for acceptance for his work. As Vincente Minnelli stated, “He lacks confidence to the most enormous degree of all the people in the world. He will not even go to see his rushes… He always thinks he is no good.” As Astaire himself observed, “I’ve never yet got anything 100% right. Still it’s never as bad as I think it is.”…

Extremely modest about his singing abilities (he frequently claimed that he could not sing, but the critics rated him as among the finest), Astaire introduced some of the most celebrated songs from the Great American Songbook…

Although he possessed a light voice, he was admired for his lyricism, diction, and phrasing—the grace and elegance so prized in his dancing seemed to be reflected in his singing, a capacity for synthesis which led Burton Lane to describe him as “the world’s greatest musical performer.” Irving Berlin considered Astaire the equal of any male interpreter of his songs—”as good as Jolson, Crosby or Sinatra, not necessarily because of his voice, but for his conception of projecting a song.” Jerome Kern considered him the supreme male interpreter of his songs and Cole Porter and Johnny Mercer also admired his unique treatment of their work.

I love Astaire’s dancing, but I think he reached his peak – in terms of the performance, the choreography, the inventiveness, and the mood – in his duets with Ginger Rogers. She had a synergistic effect on him.

But his solos are great even though they don’t appeal to me quite as much. It’s almost as though Astaire had trouble being without a partner (after all, he started dancing professionally in vaudeville as a child with his sister Adele), and so if he didn’t have a human partner he came up with some sort of prop to make things interesting.

I could post hundreds of wonderful clips of Astaire, but I’ll limit it to these two. First we have Astaire with a host of props in an exercise studio:

And next we have a dance in which the prop is a room and its furniture. This video shows you the filmed dance on the left, and then how it’s done on the right:

[NOTE: I learned something new today from Astaire’s Wiki entry – which is that he is of Jewish heritage on his father’s side. Both of his father’s parents were Austrian Jews who had converted to Roman Catholicism in the mid-19th-Century. A lot of this history can be found here.]

Posted in Dance, Jews, Movies, People of interest, Uncategorized | 29 Replies

Yesterday was the 76th anniversary of the dropping of the atom bomb on Hiroshima

The New Neo Posted on August 7, 2021 by neoAugust 7, 2021

[NOTE: The following is a slightly changed version of a post of mine. If you follow the links in the second paragraph, you’ll find three other pieces I’ve written about the decision to drop the bomb on Hiroshima.]

Once again it’s the anniversary of the dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima. Nagasaki followed three days later, and Japan surrendered on August 15, 1945.

To date these two bombs remain—astoundingly enough, considering the nature of our oft-troubled and troubling species—the only nuclear warheads ever detonated over populated areas. (I’ve written at length on the subject of those bombs: see this, this, and this.)

Oliver Kamm wrote a while back:

Our side did terrible things to avoid a more terrible outcome. The bomb was a deliverance for American troops, for prisoners and slave labourers, for those dying of hunger and maltreatment throughout the Japanese empire – and for Japan itself. One of Japan’s highest wartime officials, Kido Koichi, later testified that in his view the August surrender prevented 20 million Japanese casualties.

This context always needs to be kept in mind when evaluating any “terrible thing”—and there is no question that the dropping of these bombs was a terrible thing.

But critics who are bound and determined to portray the West as evil, marauding, bloodthirsty— whatever the dreadful adjective du jour might be—are bound and determined to either avoid all context, or to change the true context and replace it with fanciful myth. As Kamm writes, those who want to portray Hiroshima and Nagasaki as American crimes cite evidence of an imminent Japanese surrender that would have happened anyway.

Trouble is, available information points strongly to the contrary. It’s difficult to know whether those who argue that the bombs were unnecessary and the deaths that ensued gratuitous are guilty of poor scholarship, wishful thinking, or willful lying – but most likely it’s some combination of these elements.

Truth in history is not easy to determine (see this), although it helps greatly if conventions of scholarship (sources, citations) are properly followed. Oh, the main events themselves are often not disputed – except for fringe groups – although the details are often the subject of disagreement. But it’s the motivations behind the acts, the hearts and minds of the movers and shakers, the “what-might-have-been’s” and the “but-fors” that are so open to both partisan interpretation and willful distortion, and so deeply meaningful.

It’s hard enough to determine what happened. How many died in Dresden, for example? Do we believe Goebbels’s propaganda as promulgated by David Irving, or do we believe this work of recent exhaustive scholarship? The former “facts” have reigned now in popular opinion for quite a while, and although the latter mounts a far more convincing case, how many have read it or are familiar with the facts in it, compared to those who have been heavily exposed to the former?

There’s what happened, and then there’s why it happened—the meaning and intent behind the policy. A combination of the two is what propaganda is all about. It takes a lot of time and effort to wade through facts, make judgments about the veracity of sources, and be willing to keep an open mind.

Much easier to stand in a public square (as a bunch of nodding, smiling, waving, elderly peace-love Boomers regularly used to do in a town where I lived) holding huge banners declaring “9/11 WAS AN INSIDE JOB.” Repeat it often enough, and the hope is it will become Truth in people’s eyes.

Especially in the eyes of the young, and of future generations, who don’t have their own memories to go on. It’s much harder to convince a WWII vet that Hiroshima was an unnecessary war crime than it is to convince a young person of same; the former not only has the context, he has own personal memories of the context. World War II veterans are scarce these days and getting scarcer by the minute. And propagandists from the left are more numerous, with larger platforms from which to distribute their products. They are not just interested in changing opinions in the present, they’re interested in history and the future.

[NOTE: The definitive essay on the dropping of the atomic bomb by a contemporary and a fine historian is Paul Fussell’s “Thank God for the Atomic Bomb.” And for a good discussion of all the controversy about whether Japan was thinking of surrendering prior to Hiroshima, see this. For a discussion of the idea that Russia’s entry into the war against Japan rather than the atomic bomb was the cause of Japan’s surrender, see this.]

Posted in History, Violence, War and Peace | 94 Replies

The vaccinated and the unvaccinated

The New Neo Posted on August 7, 2021 by neoAugust 7, 2021

Some COVID statistics to ponder.

ADDENDUM:

A recent study from England with some interesting data can be found here. I can’t find any discussion of which vaccines were involved (if you see it, please let me know). But I have read that until fairly recently, a lot of people were receiving AstraZeneca, and I know that is a type of vaccine considered significantly less effective than those used in the US.

An excerpt:

Participants who reported being vaccinated were at substantially reduced risk of testing positive compared with those who reported not being vaccinated. For round 13, prevalence of swab positivity among those unvaccinated was three-fold greater for all ages at 1.21% (1.03%, 1.41%) compared with 0.40% (0.34%, 0.48%) among those reporting two doses of vaccine (Table 3). The ratio of prevalence for unvaccinated to vaccinated individuals for round 12 was similar with a prevalence of 0.24% (0.18%, 0.33%) in those unvaccinated compared with 0.07% (0.05%, 0.10%) in those reporting two doses. However, these estimates conflate the effect of vaccination with other correlated variables such as age, which is strongly associated with likelihood of having been vaccinated and also acts as a proxy for differences in behaviour across the age groups. Specifically, in England, few children and young people under the age of 18 years have been vaccinated, while few over the age of 65 years remain unvaccinated. We therefore restricted the analyses to those aged 18 to 64 years (n = 64,415 in round 12, n = 57,457 in round 13), which permitted direct contrast of infection rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. At these ages, we compared swab-negatives with i) all swab-positives and ii) the subset of swab-positives who were symptomatic, that is reporting one or more classic COVID-19 symptoms in the month prior to testing (fever, loss or change of sense of smell or taste, new persistent cough). After adjusting for age, sex, region, ethnicity and index of multiple deprivation (IMD) [14], for all swab-positives, we estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) in round 12 of 64% (11%, 85%) and 49% (22%, 67%) in round 13. For those with symptoms we estimated VE of 83% (19%, 97%) in round 12 and 59% (23%, 78%) in round 13.

Posted in Health | Tagged COVID-19 | 115 Replies

Open thread 8/7/21

The New Neo Posted on August 7, 2021 by neoAugust 7, 2021

Posted in Uncategorized | 24 Replies

More COVID lockdown madness from Australia

The New Neo Posted on August 6, 2021 by neoAugust 6, 2021

Wow:

Out of a population of 25.8 million, fewer than 1,000 Australians have died from COVID-19 to date. The latest uptick in cases, which has sent the country into a panic, is still only resulting in less than 5 deaths per day. Yet the Australian government has responded with a return to its past harsh pandemic restrictions—and is now even bringing in the military to police its citizens’ lockdown compliance.

“The Australian military began helping to enforce Australia’s strictest COVID-19 lockdown Monday, as a surge in delta variant cases in Sydney continued to cause problems,” Voice of America reports. “About 300 troops have been sent to Australia’s largest city to help overstretched police monitor home quarantine for coronavirus patients, and potentially set up roadblocks. The troops will help the police on a door-to-door search to check if people who have contracted COVID are isolating, police commissioner Mick Fuller told reporters during a press conference. Senior officials have said the soldiers will not be armed, and do not have special enforcement authority, but will be assisting the police.”…

…[T]here’s a bigger lesson we can take away from watching such a totalitarian policy descend upon a Western, advanced society like Australia. If we are not vigilant, it can happen here.

Can happen? Enough has already happened. But Australia is just that much further down on the slippery slope into the sewer (is that a mixed metaphor? So be it.)

I would not have believed any of this possible just a few years ago, but we’re seeing it with our own eyes now and it cannot be denied. The West has lost its way and lost what had previously inoculated it against tyranny of this type.

Posted in Health, Law, Liberty, Military | Tagged COVID-19 | 50 Replies

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