Are the mullahs of Iran seriously threatened?

The New Neo Posted on by

It seems to me that I’ve been reading for over a decade that the fall of the Iranian government is imminent.

That’s never even come close to happening, as far as I can tell.

And so I take this article with a hefty grain of salt. Here are some of the issues listed there that the mullahs apparently face, however:

Eighty percent of Iranians are currently living below the poverty line…Inflation has crossed the 45% threshold. Point-to-point inflation of necessary items is 66.7 percent, according to the state-run ISNA news agency. Institutionalized corruption and bribery permeate the economy. The unbridled import of goods by the IRGC has effectively destroyed local manufacturing, resulting in high unemployment. Furthermore, the Iranian regime is unwilling to enact standards consistent with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF)—an intergovernmental anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (CFT) organization. It refuses to do so because it wants to continue financing Hezbollah and other terrorist proxies…

“If the hungry and unemployed army starts to march, its ferocity will be much greater than the 2019 uprising. People do not see hope for their future,” said an engineer working in Tehran. “The situation in the country is like a building whose foundation is collapsing.”…

Today, the Iranian regime is facing a major crisis in the form of water shortages, which is simply one among other noteworthy environmental crises. The water supply from Afghanistan to Iran is likely to be cut off, and this will deepen an already debilitating crisis for the Iranian regime, perhaps even provoking armed conflict.

In the past, all protests have been put down without hesitation by the government. Any successful revolt would have to involve the armed forces that the mullahs employ to subdue the people.

I think this next part is of special interest, and it’s something I had not read about before – which shows you how little mainstream coverage there is in the US these days of events in Iraq:

Iraq is moving towards building alliances with other Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, and in the south, the Persian Gulf states are embracing peace with Israel. The recent Iraqi elections and the sharp decline in the number of votes for pro-Iranian groups reflect Tehran’s declining status when it comes to the regional balance of power. Although the regime wants to continue using its regional influence to wreak havoc, the shifting political landscape is setting palpable limits on its ability.

The article ends with two alternative futures for Iran. The first is based on the idea that the US and Europe don’t have the will to oppose it militarily (very true, especially at this point with Democrats in charge) and therefore Iran will continue its nuclear weapons program, which will help solidify its power. The second is this:

…[Iran] will be forced to sign on to a deal that would see the loss of its enriched uranium stockpile, accepting permanent monitoring by IAEA, signing on to FATF, accepting restrictions on its missiles program, and effectively dismantling the Quds Force and proxy forces from countries of the region.

It would surprise me if the second alternative comes to pass rather than the first.

Songs of broken hearts

The New Neo Posted on by

There are countless songs about broken hearts. It’s a natural subject, because the phenomenon of hearbreak is so common, and people undergoing the pain of the experience often turn to music to release their emotions, universalize them, and even for catharsis.

I confess to personal experience on the matter.

Folk songs have dealt with it for centuries. Here are two of the most popular songs on the subject:

The metaphor in that second song – of leaning against an oak tree thought to be strong, which then unexpectedly breaks – is common in many folk songs of the genre.

And then there are the Bee Gees – you knew they’d sneak in there, didn’t you? – with one of their most well-known songs, “How Can You Mend a Broken Heart?” They wrote it after their own breakup as a group, which lasted about eighteen months at the end of the 1960s, during their first brush of many with fame. They suffered during that break, and wrote a few huge hits on the day they first reunited.

This was one of them. Note the ideas expressed about mending broken hearts contains a contradiction – or you might say a progression. Initially, it’s described with metaphors that make it seem impossible to do, and then possible with help. The lyrics contrast the naïve hopefulness of youth with the painful revelations of the sorrows of life, and the possibility of healing.

Of all the other heartbreak songs – and there are so so many to choose from – I’m going to select what might perhaps seem an odd choice: “Unbreak My Heart” sung by Toni Braxton. I find it to be a lyrically interesting twist on the nearly-cliched broken heart theme because it posits not just an ordinary healing or recovery or mending (or not), but some sort of going back in time to undo the heartbreak entirely. Braxton also has a remarkable lower register:

But in my book, this last one is the most heartrending of heartbreak songs. The cri de coeur in the third verse – “What I can’t understand/Oh please God hold my hand/Why it should have happened to me” – expresses a desperate appeal that comes from utter desolation.

Here’s to healing or even unbreaking.

If you want to understand the legal issues in the Arbery case…

The New Neo Posted on by

….watch this. It’s long, but you can get the gist of it by watching only some of it. The video was made shortly before the verdict was announced.

I do suggest you watch 1:08:10 to 1:12:37 (that’s just four and a half minutes of it), where they differentiate the facts in this case from the facts that would occur in a case involving self-defense against a home invasion, or the facts in Zimmerman/Martin. They also agree that malice murder did not occur with the McMichaels/Arbery case, and that malice murder was obviously an overcharge by the prosecution.

And yet the jury found Travis McMichael guilty of malice murder, which I think is a preposterous miscarriage of justice. I also – as previously stated – think felony murder is a dangerous law that often has bad results, as in this case. If the McMichaels and Bryant are guilty (and I don’t think Bryant is guilty), then it is of some sort of lesser manslaughter offense, and I think that’s obvious. But that’s not how the ruling went, because of the felony murder rule.

The left always has plans: “But take it we will”

The New Neo Posted on by

[Hat tip: commenter “AesopFan”.]

“When we get ready to take the United States, we will not take it under the label of Communism; we will not take it under the label of Socialism. These labels are unpleasant to the American people, and have been smeared too much. We will take the United States under the labels we have made very lovable; we will take it under liberalism, under progressivism, under democracy. But, take it we will.”—Alexander Trachtenberg, member of the CPUSA’s Central Control Committee, at the Communist Parties National Convention, Madison Square Garden, 1944

When something is undertaken in stealth by dedicated and determined believers in the cause (and/or by cynical and amoral power-mad unbelievers), it is difficult for the majority of people to detect and therefore hard to combat. In the case of communism/socialism, you also have a doctrine that is pernicious in its effects but naturally appeals to idealistic and gullible people – until they finally experience it, and then it’s generally too late.

Relabeling something may sound trivial and merely rhetorical, but it is not – as Orwell well knew. (And yes, Orwell remained a socialist. I wrote about that here.)

I wrote at length about socialism/Communism’s enduring appeal in this post:

…[T]his persistence of the idea of socialism/Communism despite evidence of its awfulness when put into practice in the real world should not be at all surprising. And I don’t think we’ll ever find the proper stake to drive into its still-beating heart, because the nature of this beast is that it represents an idea with strong appeal to a vast number of human beings. No amount of empirical or historical evidence can permanently teach enough people otherwise.

The rhetoric of Socialism/Communism has intrinsic appeal to certain groups of people and some members of each group are always likely to fall under its spell: the guilt-ridden wealthy and/or their even-more-guilt-ridden spawn, the poor who feel they’ve been screwed by society, the politically and economically naive intelligentsia who feel they know better than others, the religious and/or idealistic who want everyone to be loving and good and selfless, and those who just like the idea of power and control over others and plan to be the ones in charge.

Combine all that natural appeal with the undeniable propagandist skill of the left—including their willingness to lie in the most brazen manner — and you have an even greater effect. And then combine all of that with ignorance of history and economics, our culture’s reluctance to teach the young our good points and its eagerness to harp on our bad ones, and the fact that people only tend to really learn something through bitter and personal experience.

The wonder is that more people don’t believe that socialism/Commmunism is the answer to the world’s prayers, not that so many succumb to it in the first place. Never imagine that the fight, especially in the intellectual and educational and propaganda spheres, can be over. It would be too bad if each generation had to learn the lesson through personal suffering rather than in the realm of ideas.

During the Biden administration, the American people have been getting a small yet up-close-and-personal taste of it. Polls have reflected that and approval of Biden et al has dropped precipitously.

Fortunately for the US, the voting bill numbered HR1, which would have changed the voting laws of every state – whether the state wants it or not, and that includes all red states – in a way that would destroy many of the safeguards against voting fraud that still remain in some states, and would have enabled the ability of the Democrats to be elected no matter what the people actually think or want, failed to pass the Senate. That bill only failed by a hair, though, and that hair is named Manchin/Sinema and their opposition to ending the filibuster (although I’m not sure how they would have voted on the bill itself and they might have voted against it, too, but it never even came to that).

However, the House had already voted for the bill along strict party lines, and therefore every single Democrat member of the House who holds him or herself out to be a moderate is obviously lying. That fact should be used by all Republicans who run against them, especially in swing districts. I hope it will be used in that way, but I’m not sure enough people have long enough memories to recall what the issues were, nor am I sure that most people knew what the bill was about and what the Democrats were trying to do in the first place.

That’s one of the problems, isn’t it? The public has to be very alert in order to understand just what is happening with each bill and what is likely to occur as a result of its passage, because the left tries to obscure those things. A failure as with HR1 is considered by the left to be only temporary, and therefore it pushes on and on with its plans.

But perhaps they’ve pushed too far, too fast, this time. Perhaps they’ve woken up the average American in a way that will backfire on them. But understand that such a victory for those who are against the left is never permanent, and constant vigilance is necessary.

Open thread 11/27/21

The New Neo Posted on by

Choruses often are loud and memorable. But this pop song from my youth is effective by getting quiet in the chorus. There are even crickets to add to the effect of something clandestine going on at night:

It’s the day of…

The New Neo Posted on by

…the leftovers. Turkey soup and turkey salad and turkey sandwiches, anyone? I like my turkey sandwiches with cranberry sauce.

I was visiting relatives for Thanksgiving, so no leftovers for me this year – although I’m going over there later today, so I may just sponge some leftovers off of them.

What about you?

We seem to be turning into a low trust society

The New Neo Posted on by

Or at least a lower trust one.

Commenter “Snow on Pine” puts it well:

One way to appreciate just how profound and deep a fundamental transformation is already on the way to being brought into being here in the US is to view this creation of tribalism, violence, uncertainty, insecurity, mistrust, and lack of confidence in our key institutions as a transformation intended to transform the US from having been an almost uniquely workable, cooperative, and relatively safe and peaceful “high trust” society — one in which substantial social and economic progress has been made — into the type of unsatisfactory low trust society which generally prevails in the rest of the world.

A “low trust” society in which any and every person and institution outside of your immediate family or group is just naturally an object of suspicion—is your natural enemy—someone or some institution which is out to hurt you, cheat you, or to rob you of what is yours, out to do you or your family, neighborhood, city, state, or particular group dirty.

Such a low trust society is—to one degree or the other — a “failed society”, one in which very little trust and cooperation is evident, chaos and violence are high and, thus, a society in which it is very hard to make any substantial or lasting social or economic progress.

It does seem intentional. The left/Democrats have long seen their own road to greater power as appealing to a bunch of special interest groups that together will add up to a majority, if only a bare majority. To that end they pit group after group against what used to be the US majority, and seek to alienate, vilify, and demonize the largest racial group in the US, which is white people. They believe that the divisions and enmity work to favor the left, and the distrust and suspicion can enable the federal government to take on more power.

The more distrust and chaos and fear, the more the feds can say “we’ll solve your problems!” Even the war against local police serves that end, because then the idea is that a federal solution will be required and even welcomed. Neither individuals nor communities will be allowed to protect themselves, and they will be so divided and feel so threatened that they would have difficulty mounting an effective response anyway.

That’s the plan, but it’s running into some snags so far. One is that increasing numbers of people in the left’s favorite ethnic groups (black people, Hispanic people) don’t like the idea and are starting to see that they’re the ones who are suffering most at the hands of the left. If that phenomenon increases, it may reach a point that will make it very difficult for the left to accomplish their ends. The same is true if white people see themselves increasingly threatened as a group, and significant numbers of white Democratic voters start abandoning the party as well. We may start uniting against a common enemy: the left.

Let’s hope so.

And introducing – the Omicron variant

The New Neo Posted on by

As expected, a new COVID variant has emerged. This time it seems to have come from South Africa, and it’s been named Omicron (I wonder – should Greek people feel insulted that the variants are designated by Greek letters?).

I’ve read a few articles about it and the consensus is that we know very little at this point except that it has a higher-than-usual number of mutations, which in turn indicates that it evolved in an immune-compromised person such as an AIDS patient. In other words, it had a longer time to remain active and replicate in that person’s body without being fought off.

Everything else is speculation, most of it alarmist. The variant “may” carry a bigger risk of reinfection. It “may” be more transmissible. It “may” be resistant to the vaccines. There’s no indication it’s more serious in the type of COVID cases it causes or the populations it infects.

The general rule of subsequent virus mutations is that they become more transmissible but less virulent. There are exceptions to that rule, however. This variant may or may not be an exception. We simply don’t know yet.

One thing we do know is that variants will come. We also can predict that many governments will use the news of those variants to clamp down further on people, and that the media will use that same news to frighten people.

The US and other nations have now banned travel from South Africa. The South African health minister says that’s unwarranted:

He slammed other nations for “wanting to put blame” and ascribing the variant to South Africa rather than working collaboratively to address the situation as guided by the WHO.

“Covid-19 is a global health emergency. We must work together, not punish each other,” Phaahla said…

Phaala said preliminary studies suggest the variant may be more transmissible due to is genetic composition but noted that vaccines are still effective in preventing severe Covid from the variant.

That sounds a lot like the Delta variant to me, if it’s true.

[NOTE: The US travel ban is for the following nations: South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi. Do I hear cries of “Joe Biden is a racist”? No? Why not? Is it because his name isn’t “Donald Trump” and he’s not a Republican?]

Happy Thanksgiving!!!

The New Neo Posted on by

This is what I made to bring to relatives for Thanksgiving. The idea is that it will appeal to the kids, but I’m rather fond of it, too. It’s raw veggies and a dill-flavored dip.

I hope it’s obvious what it’s supposed to look like:

HAPPY THANKSGIVING to you all!!!

[NOTE: Consider this an open thread, as well.]

Trump asks “Miss me yet?”

The New Neo Posted on by

Apparently they do, even in those all-important swing states:

Trump’s shadow campaign also recently polled Trump-Biden matchups in the five states, all of which were decided in 2020 by fewer than 3 percentage points. According to the poll, a memo of which was obtained by POLITICO, the former president led Biden in Arizona by 8 percentage points, Georgia by 3 points, Michigan by 12 points, Pennsylvania by 6 points and Wisconsin by 10 points.

The poll numbers send a message to those who think Trump’s grip on the Republican Party is loosening, said Tony Fabrizio, a top GOP pollster who conducted the surveys for Trump’s super PAC…

So these polls were conducted on behalf of Trump. But I have no problem believing that most areas that are not deep blue are now looking back with some fondness on Trump’s presidency, however they may have really voted in 2020.

Those who believe that meaningful and massive fraud occurred in 2020 would probably say that Trump was ahead in those states even a year ago. But whatever was the case then, my guess is that he’s quite a bit ahead now. I also suspect that “generic Republican” or “Ron DeSantis” would also be strongly ahead at the moment.