There was nothing external pushing our exit from Afghanistan in terms of time. The deadlines were all self-imposed.
Ah, but we were there for 20 years, you might say. That is true. But there was no special crisis there anymore. We did not have all that many troops there either, and we hadn’t lost any military forces in over a year. And yet Biden was determined to get out entirely, and to do it as soon as possible.
But at the very least, once the decision was made to get out, why not do it so that there was enough time to get all the Americans and all the vulnerable Afghans out who had helped us, and then withdraw the military? That wouldn’t have taken so very long. And why not wait till winter was here before beginning to do the latter?
Apparently Biden was in too much of a hurry to worry about any of that:
One source familiar with the talks between the U.S. and Afghanistan told The Daily Beast that, in addition to requests for a conditions-based withdrawal, Afghan officials asked the Biden administration to delay the move at least until October. Fighting in Afghanistan is often seasonal with extended lulls in combat during the winter months when snow and cold weather makes movement more difficult.
Afghan officials had hoped that a drawback timed with the beginning of winter could buy them more time to strengthen defenses against the Taliban. But the Biden administration pushed ahead with its own timeline.
A “conditions-based withdrawal” was what the Trump agreement with the Taliban specified. It included contingencies that the Taliban had to fulfill before the US forces would be leaving. It’s the way agreements like this must be drawn up and implemented or they are an absurdity in which one side can give up everything and get nothing for it.
Here’s what Pompeo has said about that:
For his part, Mr. Pompeo has repeatedly suggested that the Trump administration would have thrown the brakes on an American departure from the country as the Taliban pursued military conquest.
“We made abundantly clear if they did not live up to that piece of paper, to the words that they had put on the ground, we weren’t going to allow them to just walk away from any deal that they had struck, we were going to go crush them,” he said on “Fox News Sunday” over the weekend.
But Mr. Pompeo did not offer specifics about how the Taliban had violated the deal. The next day, he told the Fox Business Network that the Trump administration “would have demanded that the Taliban actually deliver on the conditions that we laid out in the agreement,” saying the Taliban had agreed “to engage in a meaningful power-sharing agreement, something that we struggled to get them to do.”
During the four years of Trump’s administration – and even prior to that, in his long career as a businessman – Trump was never averse to walking away from deals if the other party didn’t live up to its side of the bargain. And he had no trouble pressuring and using force when necessary.
But apparently Biden wasn’t interested in enforcing those or any other conditions; that’s how badly he wanted out, and fast. And strengthening the Afghan government’s defenses – or at least maximizing them as much as possible given the circumstances – would have been key to allow them any chance of holding the line, or of even postponing an inevitable takeover (see this previous post of mine for some of the details of how Biden actually made things impossible for Afghanistan’s military to defend the country). But Biden wanted no more postponements, whatever the consequences.
Why did he do this? We can say it’s because he’s been losing whatever faculties and judgment he used to have, and he didn’t have much to begin with. And I while I think that is true – plus a great deal of impulsivity and impatience may have always been part of his personality but might be exacerbated by his age-related decline – I think there was more.
Another motive was almost certainly his narcissism and desire to make a big splash on the 20th anniversary of 9/11 by being able to proudly claim that he was the person who ended the Afghanistan War after all these years. Furthermore, I think Biden wanted to leave in a hurried manner because he had chafed for eight years as VP under Obama’s rather large shadow. I have read that Biden wanted to end the war in Afghanistan even back towards the beginning of Obama’s presidency, but it never happened under Obama and my guess is that the continuation of the war and the ignoring of what Biden considered his own sage advice (after all, he was the big foreign policy “expert” in the administration) rankled him. Now as president he could finally do as he pleased. No one was going to stop him; that’s why he threw off all advice to the contrary as the sort of thing he’d heard before. He would show them, by golly.
When the Afghanistan fall began to be reported, I originally said I thought that, whatever other decisions have been made by Biden’s handlers rather than Biden, I believed that this was one he had made himself. It has his fingerprints all over it: his stupidity and poor judgment, and his stubbornness and narcissism. And as time has gone on, as I’ve read more in article after article about how the decision was supposedly made, I’ve become even more convinced that Biden was actually almost universally advised by other people (the military and the State Department) that the way he was going about this was a bad idea. He didn’t listen.
Until now Joe Biden as president has only seemed dangerous because of his leftism. Almost every decision he’s made until now has been in line with that. Most people thought that if he ever tried to do anything really dangerous, cooler heads would stop him. But this terrible terrible decision to leave Afghanistan in this particularly precipitous and exceptionally calamitous way was allowed to go forward. Its motives seem more idiosyncratic and personal, although there may indeed be much more behind it.
It is also very frightening. Biden needs to be removed from office – and there really is, or should be, that is – a sense of great urgency about that.
[NOTE: In a future post, I plan to take up the question of how Biden might be removed from office. I’m not saying it will happen, but it most certainly should happen – and yesterday. Who would replace him is another question I plan to take up.]
[ADDENDUM: Some further remarks on the subject of how much of this was done under Biden’s orders – my strong gut feeling is that yes, Biden set quite a few of the details about what had to happen first and what next. In other words, he set priorities. The military may have advised him not to do it that way, but he ordered them to do it the way he wanted. Their only recourse to obeying at that point would have been to disobey or resign, and they did neither.
I absolutely could be wrong about this; we simply don’t know. I’m quite aware of that. But it’s the most parsimonious explanation for what happened. It also fits with my sense of Biden’s psychological state and inclinations. Isn’t this a withdrawal that looks as though it were designed by a dementia sufferer? Well, maybe that’s because it was.
If you recall, someone commented here the other day with a reminder that for a while LBJ micromanaged the Vietnam War even to the degree of choosing the bombing targets. So it is my sense that presidents have some leeway about how much of the decision-making they will control and how much they will leave to the generals. If anyone knows more about that, please feel free to comment on it.]