Israel is torn right now, but it was already torn before 10/7. The trauma of that day of massive carnage and the ensuing war resulted in a temporary and illusory unity, somewhat like the US experienced after 9/11. Now, in a delayed reaction, the rift has only widened. It draws in part on the left/right split that had already become severe over the topic of what to do about the Supreme Court, which had taken enormous and unbalancing power for itself and for the left. That crisis has not been resolved.
In addition, Netanyahu is as “controversial” a figure as Trump is in this country, with his haters hating him with a white-hot passion. That has only increased. It is understandable to blame Bibi for not having seen 10/7 coming and for failing to protect the people of Israel, although he had plenty of company in that failure from others on both right and left in the government and military and in fact was not fully informed by them. Nevertheless, because he was the prime minister at the time of the attack it makes some sense to blame him, and that anger is piled onto the already-existing rage.
The fact that the hostages have been in captivity almost a year, and more are now being murdered in cold blood, has brought all of this to a fever pitch. Netanyahu is to blame, say many Israelis, who are engaging in an intensely emotional sort of magical wishful thinking. Logic dictates that the demands of Hamas were so extreme that they amount to insisting that Israel surrender to them, and even then they were only promising to release a small number of hostages they wouldn’t even guarantee were alive. What kind of bargain is that? Would any sane leader make it?
The answer is “a terrible self-destructive bargain” and “no, of course not.” But this is not a rational demand on the part of those Israelis blaming Bibi for not capitulating to their murderers, it is a deeply emotional one. Blame the person closer to you, and pretend he is an all-powerful father who can do the impossible just because you so fervently want the impossible to be possible. The truth is that no deal other than surrender would suffice, surrender would yield far more carnage, and Hamas wouldn’t even give all the hostages back alive in exchange for surrender. That’s a reality so terrible it makes emotional – although not logical – sense to deny it.
Which leaves enormous power in the hands of Hamas. They can do what they will with the hostages: parade them, make them denounce Netanyahu, kill them, and show videos of the entire process. And Hamas is well aware that the Israeli demonstrators, pained beyond measure, will continue to blame Bibi.
As will the world, and Joe Biden. Joe Biden, who apparently was able to take a moment out of his busy vacation schedule and pretend to be president again, managed to say one of the most vile and insulting – and destructive – things possible on the killing of the six hostages. This was typical Biden. His remark was that Netanyahu hadn’t done enough in the negotiations to bring the hostages home. And yet Netanyahu had done everything but surrender.
Netanyahu had this response to Biden’s accusation:
“On April 27th, secretary of state Blinken said that Israel made an extraordinarily generous offer for a hostage deal. On May 31st, Israel agreed to a US backed proposal. Hamas refused. On August 16th, Israel agreed to what the United States defined as a final bridging proposal. Hamas refused again. On August 19th, secretary Blinken said, Israel accepted the US proposal. Now Hamas must do the same. On, August 28th, that’s 5 days ago 5 days ago, deputy CIA director said that Israel shows seriousness in the negotiations.Now Hamas must show the same seriousness. I wanna ask you something. What has changed in the last 5 days?”
He went on to remind the world that the Hamas murderers executed the hostages in the midst of negotiation talks, and pressure needs to be put on them, not Israel:
“These murderers executed 6 of our hostages. They shot them in the back of the head. That’s what’s changed. And now after this, we’re asked to show seriousness. We’re asked to make concessions.What message does this send Hamas? It says, kill more hostages, murder more hostages. You’ll get more concessions. The pressure internationally must be directed at these killers, at Hamas, not at Israel. We say yes. They say no all the time, but they also murdered these people. And now we need maximum pressure on Hamas.”
No one has leverage with Hamas except Iran and Qatar, and no one appears to be putting pressure on them to stop Hamas.
Here’s my previous prediction on what Hamas would do with the hostages. It’s from last January [emphasis added]:
The demonstrators in Israel for the hostages plead, “Bring them home!” But why address Israel? After all, Israel isn’t holding the hostages. And it’s been made clear for a long time that Hamas is finished negotiating, except perhaps to ask for a total Israeli surrender in exchange for the hostage release. So how can Israel “bring them home”? Aren’t the costs of such concessions unconscionable?
Israel is being addressed in these pleas, rather than Hamas, because Israel is humane and Hamas is not. Remember William Lloyd Garrison’s famous statement, “With reasonable men I will reason, with humane men I will plead … “. What many – most?- people forget is the rest of the quote, “but to tyrants I will give no quarter, nor waste arguments where they will certainly be lost.” Negotiations with Hamas are “wasted words.”
As far as a military way to bring them home goes – Israel probably doesn’t know where they all are, and even if and when Israel does know where they are (almost certainly not in one place but in many), a military approach would be likely to kill them or precipitate Hamas murdering them.
… If the world was united in stating the obvious fact that the kidnappings are evil and Hamas must release the hostages or face attack or severe sanctions, globally – perhaps that would be enough pressure. But in reality that is very far from happening and Hamas knows it, and knows that the world is actually far more united against Israel. …
I think that Israel must not do any more large prisoner exchanges for hostages. Israel must hang tough against such negotiation and certainly against any long-term ceasefire. But I also think I know what the terrorists would do if Israel made that position clear – plus of course there would be the terrible and yet understandable spectacle of the grief-stricken and angry families of the hostages. The terrorists would then use Israel’s stance as a propaganda point to say that Israel is heartless. The terrorist propaganda would turn the terrorists’ own heartlessness and evil inside out and blame it on the Israelis, and much of the world would stupidly buy that, as they’ve bought so much else the terrorists are selling. In addition, I think the terrorists would start beaming videos of hostage after hostage pleading and pleading, and perhaps being mistreated or even tortured, as well as possibly killed either onscreen – or probably off, the better to claim that Israel’s airstrikes did the deed.
Ah, but it’s Bibi’s fault.
ADDENDUM: I focused on the opposition to Netanyahu, because they contitute a large and exceptionally vocal and active group who get all the publicity, it seems. They give Hamas hope. And Biden, who has undue influence, supports that group.
But they do not constitute a majority in Israel – at least, in terms of support of his position vis a vis a hostage deal – although it’s easy to lose sight of that:
JNS asked respondents: “Do you believe Israel should support or oppose a deal that conditions the receipt of between 18-30 hostages on an IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor for six weeks, during which Hamas will be able to rearm and smuggle hostages out of Gaza?”
Thirty-five percent of respondents overall said that Israel should agree to such a deal, while 62% opposed it. Three percent had no opinion.
Of course, the way the question is worded makes it easy to say “no.” However, the wording is a realistic statement of the risks of such a deal, in my opinion.
More from the poll:
Sixty-one percent of Israelis agreed with the sentence, “Only military pressure on Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and planned military actions including hostage rescue operations can lead to the release of the hostages.” Thirty-three percent agreed that “Continuing IDF operations in the Gaza tunnels endangers the hostages’ lives.”
To me it seems that, unfortunately, the hostages’ lives are endangered no matter what Israeli does and that has been true from the start.
As for the question of whether Netanyahu is to blame for the murder of the hostages, it’s split along coalition lines:
Israelis are sharply split over whether Netanyahu bears responsibility for the execution of the hostages. Opposition voters support the claim 69% to 28%, while coalition voters oppose it 94%-6%.
And even with a deal, “69% of Israelis believe that between 83 and 71 hostages would be left behind in Gaza indefinitely.” I agree.